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Climate change in Zimbabwe

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This bar chart is a visual representation of the change in temperature in the past 100+ years. Each stripe represents the temperature averaged over a year. The average temperature in 1971–2000 is set as the boundary between blue and red colors, and the color scale varies from ±2.6 standard deviations of the annual average temperatures between the years mentioned in the file name

Climate change impacts are occurring in Zimbabwe. Climate change is the result of the Earth's climate undergoing long-term changes due to the release of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to global warming and a hotter planet. Human activities, such as the use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), as well as large-scale commercial agriculture and deforestation, are responsible for the release of these greenhouse gases.[1][2] The country's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is very minimal.

Greenhouse gas emissions

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The African continent contributes 2%-3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change. Zimbabwe makes up less than 0.1% of these emissions. Despite its minimal contribution, all African countries have submitted plans to reduce their emissions.[3][4][5] In 2015, Zimbabwe committed to reducing its emissions by 33% by the year 2030. However, in 2021, it revised its target to a more ambitious 40% reduction by 2030 across all sectors. This significant improvement demonstrates Zimbabwe's dedication to reducing emissions from all emitting sectors.[3][6][7] Fossil CO2 emissions in Zimbabwe totaled 10,062,628 tons in 2016. This represented a decrease of -4.17% compared to the previous year, amounting to -437,903 tons less than the 2015 emissions of 10,500,531 tons. The CO2 emissions per capita in Zimbabwe were 0.70 tons per person in 2016, based on a population of 14,452,704. This signifies a decrease of -0.05 from the previous year's figure of 0.74 CO2 tons per person, reflecting a change of -6.1% in CO2 emissions per capita.[3]

Fossil Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions of Zimbabwe[8]
Year Fossil CO2

Emissions (tons)

CO2 emisions

change

CO2 emissions

per capita

Population Pop.

the of World's

CO2 emissions

Share of World's

CO2 emissions

2016 10,062,628 -4.17% 0.70 14,452,704 2.10 % 0.03%
2015 10,500,531 -2.38% 0.74 14,154,937 2.16 % 0.03%
2014 10,756,516 -1.11% 0.78 13,855,753 2.22 % 0.03%
2013 10,877,592 1.54% 0.80 13,555,422 2.19 % 0.03%
2012 10,712,268 3.00% 0.81 13,265,331 1.84 % 0.03%
2011 10,400,034 9.11% 0.80 13,025,785 1.45 % 0.03%
2010 9,531,494 10.93% 0.74 12,839,771 1.26 % 0.03%
2009 8,592,521 8.62% 0.68 12,679,810 1.03 % 0.02%
2008 7,910,492 -22.95% 0.63 12,550,347 0.80 % 0.02%
2007 10,266,621 -2.20% 0.82 12,450,568 0.97 % 0.03%
2006 10,497,312 -7.84% 0.85 12,330,490 0.86 % 0.03%
2005 11,390,701 8.68% 0.93 12,224,753 0.53 % 0.03%
2004 10,480,912 -6.81% 0.86 12,160,881 0.70 % 0.03%
2003 11,246,961 -12.26% 0.93 12,075,828 0.76 % 0.03%
2002 12,819,236 -6.29% 1.07 11,984,644 0.62 % 0.04%
2001 13,680,092 -2.63% 1.15 11,910,978 0.64 % 0.04%
2000 14,049,334 -15.44% 1.19 11,834,676 1.01 % 0.04%
1999 16,614,928 12.83% 1.42 11,716,454 1.46 % 0.05%
1998 14,725,785 1.44% 1.28 11,548,364 1.64 % 0.04%
1997 14,516,181 -6.15% 1.28 11,362,401 1.65 % 0.04%
1996 15,468,174 -3.66% 1.38 11,178,171 1.67 % 0.04%
1995 16,055,450 -1.51% 1.46 10,994,041 1.25 % 0.04%
1994 16,300,973 -6.36% 1.50 10,858,594 0.59 % 0.05%
1993 17,407,420 -8.32% 1.61 10,794,918 1.44 % 0.05%
1992 18,988,185 0.60% 1.78 10,641,501 2.54 % 0.05%
1991 18,875,286 10.14% 1.82 10,377,815 2.61 % 0.05%
1990 17,138,197 12.24% 1.69 10,113,893 2.72 % 0.05%
1989 15,268,803 1.35% 1.55 9,846,346 2.90 % 0.04%
1988 15,065,510 -3.32% 1.57 9,568,739 3.14 % 0.04%
1987 15,582,386 27.76% 1.68 9,277,488 3.28 % 0.04%
1986 12,196,857 14.81% 1.36 8,983,044 3.37 % 0.03%
1985 10,623,667 15.65% 1.22 8,690,515 3.48 % 0.03%
1984 9,186,051 5.19% 1.09 8,398,567 3.60 % 0.03%
1983 8,732,786 -0.74% 1.08 8,106,356 3.88 % 0.02%
1982 8,798,266 -4.08% 1.13 7,803,855 3.96 % 0.02%
1981 9,172,977 -4.33% 1.22 7,506,526 6.48 % 0.03%
1980 9,588,387 6.84% 1.36 7,049,926 5.92 % 0.03%
1979 8,974,917 3.13% 1.35 6,655,833 1.63 % 0.03%
1978 8,702,623 -3.81% 1.33 6,549,349 1.49 % 0.02%
1977 9,047,336 -9.64% 1.40 6,453,044 2.62 % 0.03%
1976 10,012,682 10.64% 1.59 6,288,387 3.14 % 0.03%
1975 9,049,740 -11.82% 1.48 6,097,083 3.28 % 0.03%
1974 10,262,447 -2.93% 1.74 5,903,530 3.34 % 0.03%
1973 10,571,871 15.84% 1.85 5,712,712 3.25 % 0.03%
1972 9,125,921 -4.69% 1.65 5,532,842 3.16 % 0.03%
1971 9,575,243 -0.55% 1.79 5,363,423 3.08 % 0.03%

Impact on the natural environment

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Temperature and weather changes

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Köppen climate classification map for Zimbabwe for 1980–2016
2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely[9][10][11]

The mean annual temperature has been increasing at a rate of approximately 0.01 to 0.02 degrees Celsius per year from 1950 to 2002. According to the Zimbabwe Meteorological Service, minimum daily temperatures have risen by about 2.6 degrees Celsius over the past century, while maximum daily temperatures have increased by 2 degrees Celsius during the same period. Furthermore, there has been a decrease in cold days and nights and an increase in hot days. These changes align with the overall warming trend, with more hot days and nights and fewer cold days and nights observed in recent decades.[12]

Impact on water resource

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Further information: Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate (Zimbabwe)

Zimbabwe relies mostly on surface water resources, with limited availability of groundwater resources. The country has a significant number of dams, including large ones, with a total capacity of 99,930 m3. However, Zimbabwe's water resources are projected to be severely impacted by climate change. Rainfall simulations in various catchment areas have shown a decrease in precipitation and an increase in evaporation, leading to a projected 50% decrease in runoff by 2075. The Runde and Mzingwane catchments, in particular, are anticipated to face the largest decline in average rainfall. Additionally, wetlands and aquifers' recharge rates are expected to be reduced, impacting water availability for irrigation farming. Furthermore, the demand for water for various purposes is projected to grow due to population, urbanization, industry, and evaporation increases. According to the World Bank, climate change will result in a 38% decline in national per capita water availability by 2050, potentially forcing Zimbabwe's inhabitants to depend more on groundwater sources.[13] Climate change affects water availability and quality, leading to challenges in securing a reliable water supply.[14]

Ecosystems

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Extreme Weather Events. Climate change in Zimbabwe has increased extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. These events disrupt ecosystems, harm crops, and contribute to soil erosion.[15] Biodiversity Loss. The changes in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by climate change can impact the dispersal and survival of plant and animal species, leading to a decline in biodiversity in Zimbabwe's ecosystems.[16][17] Zimbabwe's diverse ecosystems face threats from climate change, including loss of biodiversity, habitat destruction, and changes in vegetation.[3]

Impact on people

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Climate change impacts people in Zimbabwe through increased health risks, food insecurity, and displacement due to extreme weather events.[3] Tropical storm Ana struck the country in January 2022, resulting in flash floods in eastern Zimbabwe. The storm caused significant damage to bridges, schools, and roads, affecting 812 households and 51 schools. As a result, over 3,000 households were displaced, with the Manicaland province being the hardest hit.[18] Mashonaland Central and the Midlands experienced severe weather conditions from January 7 to January 11, 2023. There were six fatalities reported during this period. One person died due to flooding in Gwanda, Matabeleland South, while another fatality occurred in Mutasa, Manicaland Province. In Mazowe, Mashonaland Central province, strong winds caused significant damage, resulting in two casualties. Additionally, two individuals lost their lives due to lightning strikes in Chivi, Masvingo Province.[18][19][15]

According to the Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe, Beitbridge, Matabeleland South Province recorded 109 mm of rainfall in 24 hours up to January 7. Similarly, Buhera, Manicaland Province experienced heavy rain, with 91 mm recorded within 24 hours up to January 11. In late January, the capital city, Harare, and its surroundings experienced heavy rainfall.[20] The Meteorological Services Department reported that 123 mm of rain fell in 24 hours up to January 22. This intense rainfall led to flooding in several parts of Harare and its neighboring areas, resulting in the displacement of numerous households. In Budiriro, a southwestern suburb of Harare, the Marimba River burst its banks, causing damage to or destruction of 43 houses. Similarly, Chitungwiza in Mashonaland West experienced floods that damaged 57 houses and destroyed two others.[19][20][21]

Economic impacts

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Banana farmers, Zimbabwe

The country's economy is affected by climate change, with increased costs for disaster response and reduced agricultural productivity.[3]

Agriculture and livestock

[edit]
Further information: Agriculture in Zimbabwe
Nicholas Mukomberanwa on his farm with a typically successful maize crop

Zimbabwe's agriculture and livestock sectors face challenges from changing climate conditions, including reduced crop yields, water scarcity, and impacts on livestock production.[22] Climate change will result in the emergence of new pests, which will have varying effects in different agricultural ecological zones (AEZs). Several climate change-related factors will contribute to increased crop loss, including reduced resistance in host plants, decreased efficacy of pesticides, and the introduction of invasive pest species.[13] Changes in precipitation and temperature will lead to higher infestation rates of pests and more frequent disease outbreaks, consequently reducing crop and animal productivity and requiring increased expenditures on pesticides, herbicides, and veterinary drugs. A shift in pest distribution is one of the commonly observed abiotic responses to climate change.[13] Agriculture, a critical sector of Zimbabwe's economy, is highly vulnerable to climate change. Altered climatic conditions can cause shifts in planting seasons, reduced crop yields, and water scarcity, all of which have significant effects on food security.[15][23]

Area harvested, yield, and production of corn in Zimbabwe[24]
Marketing Years Area (1,000 Ha) Yield (MT/Ha) Production (1,000 MT)
2021/22 1,952 1.39 2,717
2022/23 1,901 0.76 2,717
2023/24 (estimate) 1,800 0.84 1,520

Sources: Zimbabwean Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Climate and Rural Resettlement and Post estimates.

Corn Production, Supply and Distribution[24]
Corn

Market Year Begins Zimbabwe

2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024
May 2021 May 2022 May 2023
USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested (1000 HA) 1952 1952 1901 1901 1800 1800
Beginning Stocks(1000 MT) 94 94 711 715 414 235
Production (1000 MT) 2717 2717 1453 1453 1500 1520
MY Imports(1000 MT) 50 58 400 220 350 900
TY Imports(1000 MT) 400 400 200 200 250 500
TY Imp. from U.S. (1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Supply (1000 MT) 2861 2869 2564 2388 2264 2655
MY Exports(1000 MT) 0 4 0 3 0 0
TY Exports(1000 MT) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feed and Residual (1000 MT) 350 350 350 350 200 400
FSI Consumption (1000 MT) 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800
Total Consumption (1000 MT) 2150 2150 2150 2150 2000 2200
Ending Stocks(1000 MT) 711 715 414 235 264 455
Total Distribution (1000 MT) 2861 2869 2564 2388 2264 2655
Yield (MT/HA) 1.39 1.39 0.76 0.76 0.83 0.84
People working on the land in a village in Buhera District, Manicaland, Zimbabwe.
Planting season in Harare

Manufacturing sector

[edit]
Further information: Economy of Zimbabwe

Extreme weather events, driven by climate change, disrupt supply chains by damaging transportation infrastructure and causing delays in the delivery of raw materials and components. This can result in production slowdowns and increased costs for manufacturers.[25][26] Rising temperatures have a negative impact on worker productivity in manufacturing facilities. Heat stress and discomfort can lead to decreased efficiency and potential health issues for employees, affecting overall production.[27]Manufacturers often rely on energy-intensive processes. Climate change mitigation efforts, such as implementing carbon pricing or regulations on greenhouse gas emissions, can result in higher energy costs, which can impact the profitability of manufacturing operations. Governments worldwide are implementing stricter environmental regulations to address climate change. Manufacturers may encounter challe[28] nges and costs associated with complying with these new requirements.[3]

Health impacts

[edit]
Further information: Health in Zimbabwe

Direct and indirect health impacts result from climate change, including changes in disease patterns, heat-related illnesses, and impacts on healthcare infrastructure.[14] Rising temperatures in Zimbabwe, attributed to climate change, have led to an increased incidence of heat-related illnesses. Heat exhaustion and heatstroke are becoming more common, especially in urban areas.[29] Climate change has expanded the range of disease vectors, such as mosquitoes, contributing to a higher prevalence of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever. These diseases pose a significant health risk. Altered precipitation patterns and reduced access to clean water sources have elevated the risk of waterborne diseases, including cholera and typhoid.[30] Climate change-induced disruptions in agriculture and food production can result in food insecurity and malnutrition, affecting the health and nutrition of the population, particularly vulnerable groups.[30][28]

Mitigation and adaptations

[edit]

Efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change in Zimbabwe include the promotion of climate-smart agriculture, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and improving water resource management.[31]Zimbabwe is actively implementing strategies to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Most smallholder farmers rely on food aid and utilize drought-resistant crops such as sorghum. They employ various strategies to cope with climate change, such as using short-seasoned varieties, engaging in barter trade, practicing multiple cropping, diversifying their livelihoods, implementing dry planting, and adopting early planting methods in a practice called Ethno-Science Adaptive Measures. These adaptation strategies are sustainable and preferred by smallholder farmers due to their cost-effectiveness and reliance on Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS).[17]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Anna, Brazier (2015). Climate Change in Zimbabwe Facts for Planners and Decision Makers. Harare: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. ISBN 978-0-7974-6744-6.
  2. ^ "The effects of climate change in Zimbabwe". www.oneyoungworld.com. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Malley, Chris (2023-09-03). "Zimbabwe's climate action plan: a win for the environment, health and energy". The Conversation. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  4. ^ Malley, Chris; Slater, Jessica; Palmer, Eve; Molotoks, Amy; West, Chris; Veysey, Jason (2023-07-18). "Climate change mitigation in Zimbabwe and links to sustainable development". Environmental Development. 47. Bibcode:2023EnvDe..4700891S. doi:10.1016/j.envdev.2023.100891.
  5. ^ Batidzirayi, B.; Nziramasanga, N. (1996), Braatz, Barbara V.; Jallow, Bubu P.; Molnár, Sándor; Murdiyarso, Daniel (eds.), "Zimbabwe Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Inventories — Methodology and Summary of Results", Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories: Interim Results from the U.S. Country Studies Program, Environmental Science and Technology Library, vol. 9, Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, pp. 135–146, doi:10.1007/978-94-017-1722-9_6, ISBN 978-94-017-1722-9, retrieved 2023-11-04
  6. ^ Ritchie, Hannah; Roser, Max; Rosado, Pablo (2020-05-11). "CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions". Our World in Data.
  7. ^ "Zimbabwe bolsters emissions targets ahead of climate summit". Reuters. 2021-09-25. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  8. ^ "Zimbabwe CO2 Emissions - Worldometer". www.worldometers.info. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  9. ^ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.
  10. ^ Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. Bibcode:2022ARER...47..343S. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
  11. ^ Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
  12. ^ "Climate Change Information Fact Sheet – Zimbabwe" (PDF). September 2015. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  13. ^ a b c Mwadzingeni, Liboster; Mugandani, Raymond; Mafongoya, Paramu (January 2022). "Risks of Climate Change on Future Water Supply in Smallholder Irrigation Schemes in Zimbabwe". Water. 14 (11): 1682. doi:10.3390/w14111682. ISSN 2073-4441.
  14. ^ a b "Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Kyrgyz Republic". IMF Staff Country Reports. 2023 (92). 2023-02-16. doi:10.5089/9798400232725.002.A002 (inactive 1 November 2024).{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: DOI inactive as of November 2024 (link)
  15. ^ a b c rlemke (2016-09-20). "The Effects of Climate Change in Zimbabwe". CRS. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  16. ^ "Climate change / Zimbabwe | Interactive Country Fiches". dicf.unepgrid.ch. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  17. ^ a b Mushore, Terence Darlington; Mhizha, Teddious; Manjowe, Moven; Mashawi, Linia; Matandirotya, Electdom; Mashonjowa, Emmanuel; Mutasa, Collen; Gwenzi, Juliet; Mushambi, George Tawanda (2021). "Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Small Holder Farmers: A Case of Nyanga District in Zimbabwe". Frontiers in Climate. 3. doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.676495. ISSN 2624-9553.
  18. ^ a b "2022-03 Factsheet - Zimbabwe | Shelter Cluster". sheltercluster.org. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  19. ^ a b "Zimbabwe: Floods and Storms I Flash Update No. 1, 3 February 2022 - Zimbabwe | ReliefWeb". reliefweb.int. 2022-02-04. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  20. ^ a b "Zimbabwe – Floods Cause Hardship for Harare Communities – FloodList". floodlist.com. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  21. ^ "Massive flooding in Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe | UNICEF". www.unicef.org. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  22. ^ Rojas-Downing, M. Melissa; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Harrigan, Timothy; Woznicki, Sean A. (2017-01-01). "Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation". Climate Risk Management. 16: 145–163. Bibcode:2017CliRM..16..145R. doi:10.1016/j.crm.2017.02.001. ISSN 2212-0963.
  23. ^ "Zimbabwe - Agricultural Sectors". www.trade.gov. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  24. ^ a b Ali, Abdi (June 15, 2023). "Grain and Feed Annual" (PDF). {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  25. ^ "Why do manufacturers need to understand the risks of climate change?". Cervest. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  26. ^ Sithole, Dingane; Tagwireyi, Caroline; Marowa, Tendayi; Muwidzi, Fadzai; Mapanda, Farai; Svinurai, Walter; Gotore, Tatenda; Ngarize, Sekai; Muchawona, Anderson; Chigoverah, Samantha; Takavingofa, Gamuchirai; Ndidzano, Kudzai; Mashungu, Lawrence; Zhakata, Washington; Dhlakama, Tafadzwa (2023-09-01). "Climate change mitigation in Zimbabwe and links to sustainable development". Environmental Development. 47: 100891. Bibcode:2023EnvDe..4700891S. doi:10.1016/j.envdev.2023.100891. ISSN 2211-4645.
  27. ^ "How climate change is expected to transform manufacturing". Manufacturing Dive. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  28. ^ a b Trummer, Ursula; Ali, Thowaiba; Mosca, Davide; Mukuruva, Blessing; Mwenyango, Hadijah; Novak-Zezula, Sonja (2023-01-01). "Climate change aggravating migration and health issues in the African context: The views and direct experiences of a community of interest in the field". Journal of Migration and Health. 7: 100151. doi:10.1016/j.jmh.2023.100151. ISSN 2666-6235. PMC 9881216. PMID 36712830.
  29. ^ Ray, Sunanda; Goronga, Tinashe; Chigiya, Phillip T.; Madzimbamuto, Farai D. (2022-09-30). "Climate change, disaster management and primary health care in Zimbabwe". African Journal of Primary Health Care & Family Medicine. 14 (1): e1–e3. doi:10.4102/phcfm.v14i1.3684. ISSN 2071-2928. PMC 9575364. PMID 36226938.
  30. ^ a b "Zimbabwe Human Development Report 2017 - Climate Change & Human Development: Towards Building a Climate Resilient Nation - Zimbabwe | ReliefWeb". reliefweb.int. 2018-03-18. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
  31. ^ "Climate-Smart Agriculture". World Bank. Retrieved 2023-11-04.
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