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Climate change in Nicaragua

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Climate change in Nicaragua carries significant implications for the Central American country as its geographical and systemic features make it extremely vulnerable.[1] Climate change will cause Nicaragua to become hotter and drier during the 21st century.[2] Along with temperature increase, climate change will bring an increased risk of natural disasters, like hurricanes and floods.[3]

The impacts on the natural environment in Nicaragua will carry social and economic effects. Nicaragua's agricultural sector, especially smallholder farmers, will face challenges.[4] The production of Nicaragua's largest export, coffee, is one of the agricultural sectors that will be impacted.[4] As with other countries in Central America, the effects of climate change are thought to be a contributing factor to emigration from Nicaragua.[5]

Nicaragua has outlined strategies for climate mitigation and has participated in climate conventions and agreements.[6] Nicaragua's 2022 National Climate Change Policy describes climate policies to achieve adaption.[7] However, Nicaragua faces challenges in implementing climate change related policy.[8]

Impacts on the environment

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Natural disasters

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Part of Nicaragua's vulnerability to the effects of climate change is a result of its geographical location and geological features.[9] Nicaragua is one of the most at-risk countries for natural disasters, ranking third among other Central American countries for the number of disasters between 1950 and 2016.[10] Nicaragua is more likely to be exposed to extreme climate events, like floods, hurricanes, and droughts, which are projected to increase in frequency as a result of climate change.[3]

Tropical cyclones pose a significant and consistent threat to Nicaragua, as its location increases its exposure to these events.[11] In recent decades, the strength and wetness of tropical cyclones has increased, which scientists attribute to warming temperatures that impact both ocean and air temperature.[12] Hurricanes in Nicaragua have been extremely destructive, notably Hurricane Mitch in 1998[11] and the Eta and Iota hurricanes of 2020.[12] As hurricanes are predicted to intensify in Nicaragua, measures to minimize risk following natural disasters is recommended by scientists.[11]

Satellite image of drought conditions in Nicaragua, 2015.

Temperature and precipitation

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Given the sensitive geographical position of Nicaragua, it is predicted to be subject to a larger increase in average temperature.[3] It is already determined that since 1950 the average temperature has risen by 1℃.[10] This temperature increase is estimated to triple or quadruple in the next 100 years.[3] Precipitation in the region is expected to decrease as the effects of climate change take hold.[3] This decrease is especially significant for regions in Nicaragua that rely on certain climate conditions, like regions engaged in coffee production.[13]

Impacts on people

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Agriculture and the coffee industry

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In 2022, 28% of Nicaragua's workforce was employed in agriculture.[14] The agriculture sector was responsible for 15% of the GDP in 2023.[14] Climate change threatens agricultural productivity, and maize, bean, and coffee crops are already being impacted.[13] Nicaragua's GDP is likely to be damaged by climate change effects, with estimates that a 1°C increase in temperature translates to a 1% decrease in productivity growth.[10]

A smallholder coffee farmer uses a cover crop, canavalia, to conserve water in Nicaragua.

The coffee industry is extremely important in Nicaragua, contributing significantly both to GDP and employment.[13] Over 50% of agricultural employment is related to coffee production in Nicaragua.[4] Additionally, smallholder coffee farmers are far more common. These farmers are more vulnerable to industry adversity, thus any climate change related agricultural loss will impact their livelihood.[4] The coffee zones of Nicaragua are predicted to experience both precipitation declines and hotter temperatures by 2050.[13] These estimates carry threatening implications for coffee farming.[13] Temperature increases and a lack of precipitation will damage coffee production and quality, as the area that can support coffee production will narrow.[13] This has lead to some farmers experimenting with different varieties to make their crops more resilient.[15]

Displacement

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Adverse effects of climate change could result in increased migration from Nicaragua.[16] Globally, it is estimated that up to 216 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050.[17] In Nicaragua, added stress on agricultural and food systems as a result of increased droughts and rainfall could drive environmental migrants.[16] Populations dependent on income from agriculture may be displaced as climate change harms crops and livestock. [5] Migration motivated by climate is a trend already seen in regions like Mexico during periods of crop failure, and environmental migrants from Nicaragua may become more common as climate change disrupts food and agricultural systems.[16]

Mitigation

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Climate justice

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Nicaragua's ability to adapt to climate change and the accompanying impacts is hindered by its larger condition of poverty.[10] Nearly a quarter of Nicaraguans lived in poverty in 2023 and Nicaragua is considered a low-income country, among the poorest when compared to other Latin American countries.[18] Poverty creates an added challenge of funding climate change-related projects, such as reinforcing houses and buildings for inevitable climate disasters.[10] The burden of climate change will be disproportionate for Nicaragua, especially considering Nicaragua has contributed only 0.01% of global cumulative CO2 emissions.[19]

National commitments and strategy

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Climate change policy development and implementation are challenges for the Nicaraguan government.[20] A lack of funding and a focus on other pressing issues, like political stability, create barriers for the government to prioritizing climate mitigation.[20] While Nicaragua has climate change mitigation targets, it does not have a legal framework to reinforce these commitments.[6]

Nicaragua has created official policy documents like the 2022 National Climate Change Policy, which focuses on addressing climate change through health, water management, conservation, and sustainable resource use.[21] The Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (MARENA), established in 1979, is Nicaragua's primary government institution that oversees projects and research to address climate change.[22] Nicaragua has created a goal to reduce its emissions by 8% by 2030, aligning with a global net-zero vision.[6] Their strategy to achieve this goal involves strengthening their renewable energy sector and protecting their forests.[6]

Nicaragua is part of many climate-related agreements, including the Climate-Resilient Sustainable Agriculture Strategy for the SICA Region 2018-2030, which outlines mitigation strategies.[6] Nicaragua ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1999[23] and ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017.[24] The country initially did not ratify the agreement, due to its climate envoy Paul Oquist's opposition to the voluntary nature of nationally determined contributions.[23]

References

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  1. ^ "Nicaragua Case Study | Climate Refugees | Othering & Belonging Institute". belonging.berkeley.edu. Retrieved 2024-10-19.
  2. ^ "Too Hot To Live: Climate Change in Nicaragua". Earth.Org. Retrieved 2023-06-29.
  3. ^ a b c d e "Mainstreaming Climate Change in Nicaragua". UNDP. Retrieved 2024-10-19.
  4. ^ a b c d Quiroga, Sonia; Suárez, Cristina; Diego Solís, Juan; Martinez-Juarez, Pablo (2020-02-01). "Framing vulnerability and coffee farmers' behaviour in the context of climate change adaptation in Nicaragua". World Development. 126: 104733. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104733. ISSN 0305-750X.
  5. ^ a b "How climate change is driving emigration from Central America". PBS NewsHour. 2019-09-08. Retrieved 2023-06-29.
  6. ^ a b c d e Molina-Rodríguez, Cintya B.; Valenzuela, Jose Maria (2024-12-01). "Opportunities for the global climate development agenda with Net Zero in the horizon: A perspective from Central America". Earth System Governance. 22: 100222. doi:10.1016/j.esg.2024.100222. ISSN 2589-8116.
  7. ^ "Nicaragua". United States Department of State. Retrieved 2024-10-19.
  8. ^ Rivera, Claudia; Wamsler, Christine (2014-03-01). "Integrating climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and urban planning: A review of Nicaraguan policies and regulations". International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 7: 78–90. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.12.008. ISSN 2212-4209.
  9. ^ Quiroga, Sonia; Suárez, Cristina; Diego Solís, Juan; Martinez-Juarez, Pablo (2020-02-01). "Framing vulnerability and coffee farmers' behaviour in the context of climate change adaptation in Nicaragua". World Development. 126: 104733. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104733. ISSN 0305-750X.
  10. ^ a b c d e Dept, International Monetary Fund Western Hemisphere (2017-06-27). "Nicaragua: Selected Issues". IMF Staff Country Reports. 2017 (174). doi:10.5089/9781484305645.002.A002 (inactive 2024-11-02).{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: DOI inactive as of November 2024 (link)
  11. ^ a b c Velásquez-Espinoza, Gema; Alcántara-Ayala, Irasema (2024-08-01). "Tropical Cyclones in Nicaragua: Historical Impact and Contemporary Exposure to Disaster Risk". International Journal of Disaster Risk Science. 15 (4): 579–593. doi:10.1007/s13753-024-00581-7. ISSN 2192-6395.
  12. ^ a b Shultz, James M.; Berg, Ryan C.; Kossin, James P.; Burkle Jr, Frederick; Maggioni, Alessandra; Pinilla Escobar, Victoria A.; Castillo, Melissa Nicole; Espinel, Zelde; Galea, Sandro (2021-08-01). "Convergence of climate-driven hurricanes and COVID-19: The impact of 2020 hurricanes Eta and Iota on Nicaragua". The Journal of Climate Change and Health. 3: 100019. doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2021.100019. ISSN 2667-2782.
  13. ^ a b c d e f Läderach, Peter; Ramirez–Villegas, Julian; Navarro-Racines, Carlos; Zelaya, Carlos; Martinez–Valle, Armando; Jarvis, Andy (2017-03-01). "Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time". Climatic Change. 141 (1): 47–62. Bibcode:2017ClCh..141...47L. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1788-9. ISSN 1573-1480.
  14. ^ a b "World Bank Open Data". World Bank Open Data. Retrieved 2024-10-18.
  15. ^ "How Nicaraguan coffee farmers are adapting to climate change". Christian Science Monitor. ISSN 0882-7729. Retrieved 2023-06-29.
  16. ^ a b c Batista, Carolina; Knipper, Michael; Sedas, Ana Cristina; Farante, Sofia Virginia; Wainstock, Daniel; Borjas-Cavero, Diego B.; Araya, Karol Rojas; Arteaga España, Juan Carlos; Yglesias-González, Marisol (October 2024). "Climate change, migration, and health: perspectives from Latin America and the Caribbean". The Lancet Regional Health - Americas: 100926. doi:10.1016/j.lana.2024.100926.
  17. ^ "Groundswell Report". World Bank. Retrieved 2024-11-02.
  18. ^ "Nicaragua | World Food Programme". www.wfp.org. 2024-03-29. Retrieved 2024-11-01.
  19. ^ Ritchie, Hannah; Roser, Max; Rosado, Pablo (2022-10-27). "Energy". Our World in Data.
  20. ^ a b Segura, Luis D.; van Zeijl‐Rozema, Annemarie; Martens, Pim (November 2022). "Climate change adaptation in Central America: A review of the national policy efforts". Latin American Policy. 13 (2): 276–327. doi:10.1111/lamp.12277. ISSN 2041-7365.
  21. ^ Ibarra, Arias-Rodrigo; Guerrero, Isa (2022-06-20). "New national climate change policy in Nicaragua". Lexology. Retrieved 2023-06-29.
  22. ^ "Misión y Visión – Marena" (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-11-08.
  23. ^ a b Cabral, Angelica (2017-06-01). "Why Isn't Nicaragua Part of the Paris Agreement?". Slate. ISSN 1091-2339. Retrieved 2023-06-29.
  24. ^ Mathiesen, Karl (2017-09-21). "Nicaragua to join Paris climate deal in solidarity with 'first victims'". Climate Home News. Retrieved 2023-06-29.
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