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Australian region tropical cyclone

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An Australian region tropical cyclone is a non-frontal, low-pressure system that has developed within an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and little vertical wind shear aloft in either the Southern Indian Ocean or the South Pacific Ocean.[1] Within the Southern Hemisphere there are officially three areas where tropical cyclones develop on a regular basis: the South-West Indian Ocean between Africa and 90°E, the Australian region between 90°E and 160°E, and the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The Australian region between 90°E and 160°E is officially monitored by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency, and the Papua New Guinea National Weather Service, while others like the Fiji Meteorological Service and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also monitor the basin. Each tropical cyclone year within this basin starts on 1 July and runs throughout the year, encompassing the tropical cyclone season, which runs from 1 November and lasts until 30 April each season. Within the basin, most tropical cyclones have their origins within the South Pacific convergence zone or within the Northern Australian monsoon trough, both of which form an extensive area of cloudiness and are dominant features of the season. Within this region a tropical disturbance is classified as a tropical cyclone when it has 10-minute sustained wind speeds of at least 65 km/h (40 mph) that wrap halfway around the low level circulation centre, while a severe tropical cyclone is classified when the maximum 10-minute sustained wind speeds are greater than 120 km/h (75 mph).

Basin history

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There is a history of tropical cyclones affecting northeastern Australia for over 5000 years; however, Clement Lindley Wragge was the first person to monitor and name them.[2]

In the early history of tropical cyclones in the Australian region, the only evidence of a storm was based on ship reports and observations from land. Later, satellite imagery began in the basin in the 1959-60 season, although it was not continuous until 1970. In Western Australia in particular, the lack of population centers, shipping lanes, radars, and offshore stations meant that storms were tracked infrequently. After the onset of satellite imagery, the Dvorak technique was used to estimate storms' intensities and locations.[3]

Each of three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) of the Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Darwin and Brisbane used its own tropical cyclone naming list until the 2008–09 season, when the three TCWCs started to use the single Australian national naming list. From the 2020–21 season, the three TCWCs were unified into one single TCWC which still monitors all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any within the areas of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta or TCWC Port Moresby.[4] Later in 2021, the Australian tropical cyclone warning centre was officially named as TCWC Melbourne.[5]

Background

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The Australian region is currently defined as being between 90°E and 160°E, and is monitored by five different warning centres during the season, which runs from 1 November to 30 April.[citation needed]

Australian tropical cyclone outlook regions

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The Bureau of Meteorology defines four regions within the Australian region which are used when the bureau issues tropical cyclone seasonal outlooks every year. These four regions are named the Western region, the Northwestern sub-region, the Northern region and the Eastern region. The Australian region overall averages eleven tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the region as a whole to have a high level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[6]

The Western region encompasses the area east of 90°E and west of 125°E.[6] The region covers the eastern Indian Ocean including the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island, and waters off Western Australia west of Kuri Bay. The region also covers waters off Indonesia that include the main islands of Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa, Sumba, Flores and the western half of Timor. The region averages seven tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the region to have a low level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[6]

The Northwestern sub-region encompasses the area east of 105°E, west of 130°E and north of 25°S.[6] The sub-region covers waters off Western Australia north of Shark Bay, and extends westward to Christmas Island. The sub-region also covers waters off Indonesia as far west as Java and as far east as Timor. The sub-region averages five tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the sub-region to have a moderate level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[6]

The Northern region encompasses the area east of 125°E and west of 142.5°E.[6] The region covers the Timor Sea, the Banda Sea, the Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria. The region averages three tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the region to have a very low level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[6]

The Eastern region encompasses the area east of 142.5°E and west of 160°E.[6] The region covers waters east of Torres Strait and includes the Coral Sea and the Tasman Sea. Lord Howe Island lies within the region, but Norfolk Island lies east of the region, although the bureau continues to monitor tropical cyclones when they are a threat to the external territory.[7] The region also covers waters off Papua New Guinea and western parts of the Solomon Islands. The region averages four tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the region to have a low level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[6]

Seasons

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Historical storm formation by month between 1990 and 2020
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Category 5
  •   Category 4
  •   Category 3
  •   Category 2
  •   Category 1
  •   Tropical low

Before 1900

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Main article: List of Australian region cyclones before 1900

1900–1909

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Further information: 1900s Australian region cyclone seasons

1910–1919

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Further information: 1910s Australian region cyclone seasons

1920–1929

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Further information: 1920s Australian region cyclone seasons

1930–1939

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Further information: 1930s Australian region cyclone seasons

1940–1949

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Further information: 1940s Australian region cyclone seasons

1950–1959

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Further information: 1950s Australian region cyclone seasons

1960–1969

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Further information: 1960s Australian region cyclone seasons
Season TL TC STC Strongest
storm		 Deaths Damage Retired names References
1960–61
1961–62
1962–63
1963–64  2  Audrey
1964–65  3  Flora
1965–66
1966–67  4  Dinah
1967–68
1968–69 15 13 1  3  Amber
1969–70 14 14 1  3  Ada 14 ?  3  Ada

1970s

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Season TL TC STC Strongest
storm		 Deaths Damage Retired names References
1970–71 20 20 10  5  Sheila-Sophie Unknown ?  1  Dora
 3  Fiona-Gertie
1971–72 18 18 10  4  Emily Unknown ?  4  Althea
 3  Daisy
 4  Emily
1972–73 15 15 8  3  "Flores" >1,574 ?  4  Madge [8]
1973–74 19 19 9  3  Jessie Unknown ?  2  Wanda
1974–75 16 16 7  5  Trixie >71 ?  4  Tracy
 5  Trixie
1975–76 16 15 8  5  Joan Unknown ?  5  Joan
 3  David
 3  Beth
1976–77 13 13 6  4  Ted Unknown ?  4  Ted
1977–78 9 5 2  5  Alby Unknown ?  5  Alby
1978–79 13 12 5  4  Hazel Unknown ?
1979–80 15 15 9  5  Amy Unknown ?  4  Simon

1980s

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Season TL TC STC Strongest
storm		 Deaths Damage Retired Names References
1980–81 14 14 11  5  Mabel Unknown Unknown  3  Cliff
1981–82 15 15 7  4  Chris-Damia Unknown Unknown
1982–83 7 7 5  5  Elinor Unknown Unknown  4  Jane
 5  Elinor
1983–84 22 21 11  5  Kathy 1 $19 million  5  Kathy
 2  Lance
1984–85 20 18 11  5  Kristy 0 $3.5 million  3  Nigel
 4  Sandy
 3  Margot
1985–86 17 16 8  4  Victor 153 $250 million  3  Winifred
 3  Manu
1986–87 9 7 2  4  Elsie 0 None  3  Connie
 2  Jason
 4  Elsie
1987–88 6 5 2  4  Gwenda-Ezenina 1 $17.9 million  2  Agi
 2  Charlie
 1  Herbie
1988–89 14 13 6  5  Orson 6 $93.9 million  3  Ilona
 2  Delilah
 4  Ned
 5  Aivu
 5  Orson
1989–90 14 14 4  5  Alex Unknown Unknown  2  Pedro
 3  Felicity
 2  Tina
 4  Ivor

1990s

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Season TL TC STC Strongest
storm		 Deaths Damage Retired names References
1990–91 12 10 7  4  Marian 27  4  Joy
 2  Daphne
 2  Fifi
1991–92 12 10 9  5  Graham 5 $9.4 million  2  Mark
 4  Ian
1992–93 8 8 4  4  Oliver 0 $950 million  4  Nina
 2  Lena
 4  Oliver
 2  Roger
 3  Adel
1993–94 14 12 7  5  Theodore 22  3  Naomi
 3  Pearl
 3  Quenton
 5  Theodore
 4  Sharon
1994–95 19 6 6  5  Chloe 1  4  Annette
 4  Bobby
 3  Violet
 3  Warren
 5  Chloe
 4  Agnes
1995–96 19 15 9  4  Olivia 1 $58.5 million  4  Frank
 3  Gertie
 4  Barry
 3  Celeste
 2  Ethel
 4  Kirsty
 4  Olivia
1996–97 17 15 5  4  Pancho 34 $190 million  1  Lindsay
 3  Fergus
 3  Rachel
 3  Justin
 4  Rhonda
1997–98 11 9 4  4  Tiffany  1  Sid
 4  Katrina		 [9]
1998–99 21 14 9  5  Gwenda 8 $250 million  5  Thelma
 3  Rona
 5  Vance
 4  Elaine
 5  Gwenda		 [9]
1999-00 14 12 5  5  Paul 0 $251 million  5  John
 2  Steve
 3  Tessi
 5  Rosita		 [9]
147 111 65 Gwenda 98 ≥$1.71 billion

2000s

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Season TL TC STC Strongest
storm		 Deaths Damage Retired names References
2000–01 14 8 3  5  Sam 2 $12.8 million  5  Sam
 3  Abigail		 [9]
2001–02 14 10 3  5  Chris 19 $929,000  1  Upia

 5  Chris

[9]
2002–03 11 9 3  5  Inigo 62 $28 million  5  Erica
 1  Graham
 5  Inigo
 1  Epi		 [9]
2003–04 13 10 5  5  Fay 0 $20 million  4  Monty
 5  Fay		 [9]
2004–05 13 10 5  5  Ingrid 5 $14.4 million  3  Harvey
 5  Ingrid		 [9]
2005–06 18 12 8  5  Monica 0 $5.1 million  3  Clare
 4  Larry
 5  Glenda
 5  Monica		 [9]
2006–07 8 5 3  5  George 3  5  George [9]
2007–08 14 10 3  4  Pancho 149 $86 million  3  Guba
 2  Helen
 2  Durga		 [9]
2008–09 24 10 3  5  Hamish 5 $103 million  1  Dominic
 5  Hamish		 [9]
2009–10 13 8 4  5  Laurence 3 $681 million  5  Laurence
 3  Magda		 [9]
137 93 41 Inigo 249 ≥$1.75 billion

2010s

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Season TL TC STC Strongest
storm		 Deaths Damage Retired names References
2010–11 28 11 6  5  Yasi 3 $3.56 billion  1  Tasha
 3  Carlos		 [9]​[10]
2011–12 21 7 3  3  Lua 16 > $230 million  3  Heidi
 4  Jasmine
 3  Lua		 [10]
2012–13 16 9 6  4  Narelle 20 $2.5 billion  1  Oswald
 4  Rusty		 [11]
2013–14 17 10 5  5  Ita 22 $958 million  3  Christine
 5  Ita
2014–15 18 9 7  5  Marcia 1 > $732 million  4  Lam
 5  Marcia
 3  Olwyn
 4  Quang
2015–16 11 3 0  2  Stan 0 None None [A 1]
2016–17 30 9 3  5  Ernie 16 $1.8 billion  4  Debbie
2017–18 23 11 3  5  Marcus 41 $165 million  5  Marcus
2018–19 25 11 5  5  Veronica 14 $1.63 billion  4  Trevor
 5  Veronica
2019–20 19 9 3  4  Ferdinand 28 $4.3 million  3  Damien
 1  Harold
 1  Mangga
207 89 38 Marcus 161 ≥$12.6 billion

2020s

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Season TL TC STC Strongest
storm		 Deaths Damage Retired names Notes
2020–21 27 8 3  5  Niran 272 $518.7 million  3  Seroja Second-deadliest Australian region cyclone season on record.
2021–22 32 10 2  4  Vernon 4 $75 million  2  Seth
2022–23 25 7 5  5  Darian
 5  Ilsa		 8 $2.7 million  5  Freddy
 3  Gabrielle
 5  Ilsa
2023–24 11 8 6  5  Jasper 1 $675 million  5  Jasper
 3  Kirrily
 4  Megan
Totals 94 32 16 Darian and Ilsa 285 $1.27 billion 8 names

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Number of tropical lows and tropical cyclones excludes Tropical Cyclone Raquel, which was considered to have been a part of the 2014-15 year.[12]

References

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  1. ^ RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (5 May 2015). List of Tropical Cyclone Names withdrawn from use due to a Cyclone's Negative Impact on one or more countries (PDF) (Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2014). World Meteorological Organization. pp. 2B–1–2B–4 (23–26). Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 May 2015. Retrieved 6 May 2015.
  2. ^ Nott, Jonathan (May 2004). "Palaeotempestology: the study of prehistoric tropical cyclones—a review and implications for hazard assessment". Environment International. 30 (3): 433–447. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2003.09.010. PMID 14987874.
  3. ^ Buchan, S.J.; Black, P.G.; Cohen, R.L. (1999). "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf". Offshore Technology Conference. doi:10.4043/10791-MS.
  4. ^ "Regional Association V -Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean". World Meteorological Organization. 2020. p. 15. Archived from the original on 3 August 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2021.
  5. ^ RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (2024). Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2024 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved 14 October 2024.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Australian Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021". Australia: Bureau of Meteorology. 12 October 2020. Archived from the original on 12 October 2020. Retrieved 9 November 2020.
  7. ^ "Upgrades to the Norfolk Island Tropical Cyclone Warning Service". New South Wales, Australia: Bureau of Meteorology. 20 December 2012. Archived from the original on 30 January 2021. Retrieved 9 November 2020.
  8. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 17 January 2013. Retrieved 29 April 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Padgett, Gary (1997–2011). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summaries". Archived from the original on 30 December 2019. Retrieved 19 February 2012. Alt URL Archived 29 July 2012 at the Wayback Machine
  10. ^ a b National Climate Centre (3 July 2012). "Record-breaking La Niña events – Tropical cyclone activity during 2010–11 and 2011–12" (PDF). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. p. 17. Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 August 2012. Retrieved 22 July 2012.
  11. ^ Nathan Paull and Miranda Forster (29 January 2013). "Floods recede as states count cost". Australian Associated Press. News Limited. Archived from the original on 29 January 2013. Retrieved 29 January 2013.
  12. ^ Queensland Regional Office (September 2015). Tropical Cyclone Raquel (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 20 January 2016. Retrieved 15 September 2015.
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