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2006 Arizona's 8th congressional district election

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2006 Arizona's 8th congressional district election
← 2004 November 7, 2006 2008 →
 
Nominee Gabby Giffords Randy Graf
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 137,655 106,790
Percentage 54.26% 42.09%
County results
Giffords:      50–60%
Graf:      50–60%
U.S. Representative before election

Jim Kolbe
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Gabby Giffords
Democratic

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The 2006 Arizona 8th congressional district election was an election for the United States House of Representatives for the open seat of incumbent Republican Jim Kolbe, who was not running for re-election. The primary was held on September 12, 2006, and the two major party winners were Republican Randy Graf, a former state Representative who challenged Kolbe for the GOP nomination in 2004, and former State Senator Gabby Giffords. Libertarian Dave Nolan, who was uncontested in the primary, was also in the November 7, 2006 general election. Graf was considered too conservative for the district: Kolbe withheld his endorsement, and towards the end of the election the National GOP pulled their support. By election time, most non-partisan analyses considered this race the most likely district to switch hands, which it did, as Giffords won a decisive victory, 54% to 42%.

Campaign signs including for Graf, Giffords and Quick

Primary

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Candidates

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Republican campaign

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Incumbent Republican Jim Kolbe announced on November 23, 2005, that he would not seek re-election in 2006.[9] The district, located in Southeastern Arizona and based in the suburbs of Tucson, was Republican-leaning, but competitive: George W. Bush had won the district with 53% of the vote in 2004 (although only 50% in 2000). Kolbe had barely won the seat in 1984, but had usually skated to reelection since then. Even after coming out as gay in 1996, he remained very popular in the district, taking 61% of the vote in 2004. Although Kolbe was generally thought to be all but unbeatable in the district, it was widely believed that it would be very competitive once he retired.[10]

Randy Graf, the primary winner, left a leadership position in the state House in 2004 to challenge Kolbe in the Republican primary. Graf had won 40 percent of the vote and had campaigned almost full-time since.[11] A supporter of the Minuteman Project, Graf campaigned on a pledge to ensure that illegal immigrants had no path to citizenship and that the border would be further secured.[12] Graf previously sponsored a bill (which did not pass) to allow patrons carry guns into bars and restaurants.[12]

The GOP establishment, however, considered Graf as too conservative for a district that leaned Republican but gave President Bush only 53 percent of the votes in 2004, and tried to rally voters around moderate state representative Steve Huffman.[13] However, another more moderate candidate, former Arizona Republican Party chairman Mike Hellon, also gained significant support, which split anti-Graf support and prevented Huffman from consolidating the moderate lane.[14]

Huffman got a boost when the national GOP took the rare step of endorsing and supporting Huffman, putting $250,000 into the race. The other GOP candidates criticized the move as unfair. The national Democratic party spent nearly $200,000, much of it on advertisements critical of Huffman in an effort to help Graf's candidacy, believing Graf would be the weaker candidate in the general election.[12]

Huffman's campaign was injured when, according to CQPolitics: "there were allegations that his (Huffman's) campaign treasurer, local real estate broker William Arnold, had stalked Hellon’s ex-wife, state Sen. Toni Hellon". Arnold quit as treasurer after Hellon obtained a restraining order against him, and Huffman's campaign said it had no involvement in Arnold's actions." The scandal expanded when it was revealed that unauthorised photos of Toni Hellon had been posted to a website owned by the same individual who had designed Huffman's campaign website.[13] As a result of the incident, the Tucson Weekly withdrew its support for Huffman.[13]

Steve Huffman (R)

Federal officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Democratic campaign

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Gabby Giffords, who was former State Senator, resigned from the Arizona Legislature just eight days after Kolbe's announcement, in order to run for his seat. She quickly established herself as the front-runner, largely on the basis of her legislative record. She also gained some beneficial publicity when it was revealed that she was engaged to space shuttle astronaut Mark Kelly.[13] Her only serious competition was longtime KVOA television newscaster Patty Weiss, who ran as a more liberal alternative to Giffords.[17]

Results

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2006 Arizona's 8th congressional district open primary[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gabby Giffords 33,375 26.3
Republican Randy Graf 27,063 21.3
Republican Steve Huffman 24,119 19.0
Democratic Patty Weiss 19,148 15.1
Republican Mike Hellon 9,095 7.2
Democratic Jeffrey Lynn Latas 3,687 2.9
Democratic Alex Rodriguez 2,855 2.2
Republican Frank Antenori 2,724 2.1
Republican Michael T. Jenkins 2,075 1.6
Democratic William Daniel Johnson 1,768 1.4
Democratic Francine Shacter 576 0.4
Libertarian David F. Nolan 516 0.4

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Graf's campaign got off to a rough start in mid-September when outgoing Republican incumbent Jim Kolbe withheld his endorsement, citing "profound and fundamental differences" between their views.[22][23] The Arizona Republic wrote that a "victory by Graf would in effect repudiate much of Kolbe's work on what has come to be known as 'comprehensive' immigration reform. In contrast with 'enforcement only,' Kolbe’s plan would create a guest-worker program and an opportunity for undocumented residents to become citizens eventually."[11]

In mid-August CQPolitics changed their rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite".[24]

By late September, Graf's position had continued to deteriorate. The Cook Political Report changed their rating from "Toss Up" to "Leans Democratic",[25] and the national Republican Party cancelled about $1 million in advertising support.[26] Two days later, in what was seen as a diminished level of national influence and interest in what had long been considered a competitive race, the national Democratic party also pulled their financial support.[27]

Endorsements

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Gabby Giffords (D)

Organizations

Newspapers

Randy Graf (R)

Executive officials

Federal officials

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Debates

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2006 Arizona's 8th congressional district general election debates
 No. Date & time Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant    A  Absent    N  Non-invitee  
Jay Quick David F. Nolan Gabby Giffords Randy Graf
  1[37]  October 17, 2006 Access Tucson
Arizona Daily Star 		Joe Birchall Video[38] P P P P

Polling

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On September 20, 2006, Gabby Giffords' campaign released an internal poll that showed her leading Republican candidate Randy Graf by 19 percentage points.[39] The poll showed Giffords with 54% of the vote and Graf with 35%. The poll was based on responses from 500 likely general election voters and had a +/-4% margin of error.

Results from a second poll conducted during the same time period confirmed a Giffords lead while suggesting a slightly tighter race.[40] This independent poll, conducted by 1 to 1 Direct and Marketing Intelligence, showed Giffords with a 12-point lead (Giffords [48], Graf [36], +/-4% MoE).

On October 4, Zogby released a poll showing Giffords with a 45–37 percent lead.[41]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Randy
Graf (R) 		Gabby
Giffords (D) 		Others Undecided
Reuters/Zogby[42] October 24–29, 2006 500 (LV) ±4.5% 41% 53% 2% 4%
Wick Communications[43] October 25–28, 2006 400 (LV) ±?% 35% 50% 4% 11%
Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star/KVOA)[44] October 20–23, 2006 600 (LV) ±4.0% 38% 48% 4% 10%
Reuters/Zogby[45] September 25 – October 2, 2006 500 (LV) ±4.5% 37% 45% 2% 16%
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)[46] September 19–21, 2006 400 (LV) ±?% 29% 54% – 17%
Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star/KVOA)[47] September 16–19, 2006 600 (LV) ±4.0% 36% 48% 3% 13%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D-Giffords)[48] September 9–13, 2006 500 (LV) ±4.0% 35% 54% 5% 6%
Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star)[49] September 1–4, 2006 800 (LV) ±4.9% 36% 46% – 19%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[50] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Rothenberg[51] Likely D (flip) November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] Likely D (flip) November 6, 2006
CQ Politics[53] Likely D (flip) November 7, 2006

Results

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Giffords was declared the winner 37 minutes after the polls closed. Graf conceded defeat at 10:08 P.M. EST.[54]

2006 Arizona’s 8th congressional district election[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gabby Giffords 137,655 54.25
Republican Randy Graf 106,790 42.09
Libertarian David F. Nolan 4,849 1.91
Independent Jay Dudley Quick 4,408 1.74
Write-ins Russ Dove 7 0.00
Write-ins Leo F. Kimminau 7 0.00
Write-ins Paul Price 5 0.00
Total votes 253,720 100.00
Democratic gain from Republican

References

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  1. ^ McCombs, Brady (January 28, 2012). "Antenori, in 2nd attempt at Congress, says he's ideal". Arizona Daily Star. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  2. ^ "Kolbe won't seek re-election". East Valley Tribune. November 23, 2005. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  3. ^ Nintzel, Jim (June 22, 2006). "Promises, Promises". Tucson Weekly. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  4. ^ Bianco, James N. (April 29, 2008). "White Supremacist Is in Contest With Court Commissioner". Metropolitan News-Enterprise. p. 6. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  5. ^ Bryan, Michael (March 20, 2006). "Interview with Jeff Latas, Democrat for Congress in Arizona's CD8". Blog for Arizona. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  6. ^ Long, Levi J. (November 18, 2007). "Patty Weiss moving to Madison, Wis". Arizona Daily Star. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  7. ^ Bryan, Michael (April 17, 2006). "An Interview with Alex Rodriguez, Democratic Candidate for Congress in Arizona's CD 8". Blog for Arizona. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  8. ^ "SHACTER, Francine E." Arizona Daily Star. June 19, 2018. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  9. ^ Fischer, Howard (November 23, 2005). "Kolbe ready to retire from Congress after 10 terms". Arizona Daily Sun. Archived from the original on April 28, 2021. Retrieved April 28, 2021.
  10. ^ Sunnucks, Mike (November 23, 2005). "Business ally Kolbe retiring, 2006 district race wide open". Phoenix Business Journal. Archived from the original on June 25, 2011. Retrieved May 30, 2021.
  11. ^ a b Kamman, Jon (September 13, 2006). "Giffords, Graf win in 8th Congressional District". The Arizona Republic.
  12. ^ a b c Archibold, Randal C. (September 11, 2006). "In Cost and Vitriol, Race in Arizona Draws Notice". The New York Times.
  13. ^ a b c d e Horrigan, Marie (September 13, 2006). "Conservative Graf Scores Win Over Moderate in Arizona's 8th". CQPolitics. Archived from the original on September 27, 2006.
  14. ^ Daily Kos Staff (August 31, 2006). "AZ-08: Another GOP civil war gives Dems an opening". Daily Kos. Retrieved May 12, 2021.
  15. ^ Sunnucks, Mike (May 8, 2006). "Kolbe backs business ally Huffman in key contest". Phoenix Business Journal. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  16. ^ "U.S. Chamber makes endorsement in Tucson-area race". Phoenix Business Journal. August 10, 2006. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  17. ^ Parker, Bobby (January 12, 2011). "From a Friend of Gabrielle Giffords". LGBTQ Nation. Retrieved May 12, 2021.
  18. ^ "State of Arizona official canvass" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. September 12, 2006. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  19. ^ "Resume". Average Joe for Congress. 2006. Archived from the original on November 1, 2006. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  20. ^ Buchanan, Susy; Kim, Tom (November 2, 2006). "The Nativists". Southern Poverty Law Center. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  21. ^ a b c "State of Arizona Official Canvass" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. November 2006. Retrieved April 6, 2021.
  22. ^ "Congressman Jim Kolbe Press Release". September 13, 2006.[permanent dead link‍]
  23. ^ "'Profound differences' keep Kolbe from endorsing Graf". AZ Star Net. Associated Press. September 13, 2006.
  24. ^ Benenson, Bob (August 10, 2006). "Big Batch of Rating Changes Reflects Stronger Democratic Breeze". CQPolitics. Archived from the original on August 13, 2006. Retrieved September 13, 2006.
  25. ^ "2006 Competitive House Race Chart" (PDF). Cook Political Report. September 20, 2006. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 24, 2006. Retrieved September 25, 2006.
  26. ^ Kamman, Jon (September 22, 2006). "GOP cancels $1 mil in Graf ad support". The Arizona Republic.
  27. ^ Scarpinato, Daniel (September 23, 2006). "National Demos pulling Dist. 8 ads". Arizona Daily Star. Archived from the original on October 19, 2006.
  28. ^ "Human Rights Campaign to Host Salt Lake City Camp Equality, Train Activists for Election 2008" (Press release). Human Rights Campaign. August 6, 2008. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  29. ^ "Range News endorses those who don't mislead voters". Arizona Range News. October 25, 2006. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  30. ^ "Esquire Endorses America". Esquire. November 1, 2006. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  31. ^ Lyon, Christopher (September 27, 2006). "Elections '06: The Arizona 8th". Radio Open Source. Retrieved April 24, 2021.
  32. ^ Horrigan, Marie (October 6, 2006). "GOP Split in Ariz. 8 Provides Huge Opening for Giffords". The New York Times. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  33. ^ "Snubbed by Kolbe, candidate receives key support from McCain". Mohave Daily News. Associated Press. October 8, 2006. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  34. ^ a b c "Retiring Kolbe says he won't endorse fellow GOP Graf". Arizona Daily Sun. Associated Press. September 13, 2006. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  35. ^ Rothstein, Bethy (October 21, 2008). "Etheridge to host fundraiser for Kucinich". The Hill. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  36. ^ Tapper, Jake; Miller, Avery (September 22, 2006). "Border Politics on the Campaign Trail". ABC News. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
  37. ^ "Arizona 8th Congressional District Debate". C-Span. October 17, 2006. Retrieved April 22, 2021.
  38. ^ Video
  39. ^ "Giffords' Campaign Internal Poll". Giffords for Congress. September 20, 2006. Archived from the original on October 4, 2006. Retrieved September 23, 2006.
  40. ^ "1 to 1Direct and Marketing Intelligence Poll". KVOA. September 26, 2006. Archived from the original on September 27, 2006.
  41. ^ "Results in key House races: Reuters poll". Reuters. October 4, 2006. Archived from the original on October 24, 2012.
  42. ^ Reuters/Zogby
  43. ^ Wick Communications
  44. ^ Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star/KVOA)
  45. ^ Reuters/Zogby
  46. ^ Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)
  47. ^ Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star/KVOA)
  48. ^ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D-Giffords)
  49. ^ Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star)
  50. ^ "2006 Competitive House Race Chart" (PDF). House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  51. ^ "2006 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 7, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  52. ^ "2006 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 10, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  53. ^ "Balance of Power Scorecard: House". cqpolitics.com. Congressional Quarterly Inc. Archived from the original on November 17, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  54. ^ "Key Race: U.S. House, Arizona District 8 (Open)". Washington Post. Archived from the original on October 12, 2006. Retrieved September 29, 2006.
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