2024 Black state by-election
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Electoral district of Black in the South Australian House of Assembly | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 26,540 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Black (highlighted in green) in the Greater Adelaide area | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 Black state by-election was held on 16 November 2024 to elect the member for Black in the South Australian House of Assembly, following the resignation of Liberal Party MP David Speirs.[1]
The Labor candidate Alex Dighton is projected to win the seat, with ABC election analyst Antony Green calling the result at 7:26pm ACDT on election night.[2] It would be the second seat Labor has gained from the Liberals in a by-election in 2024, following their victory at the March by-election in Dunstan.
Background
[edit]The by-election was triggered by the resignation on 5 October 2024 of sitting Liberal MP and former Opposition Leader David Speirs, after he was charged with two counts of supplying a controlled substance on 26 September 2024. Speirs maintained his innocence and announced he would fight the charges.[3]
On 15 October 2024, Speirs formally resigned to the Speaker of the South Australian House of Assembly, with the election date held on Saturday, 16 November 2024.[1]
2022 election result
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | David Speirs | 11,862 | 50.1 | −0.9 | |
| Labor | Alex Dighton | 9,037 | 38.1 | +7.0 | |
| Greens | Liz Tidemann | 2,785 | 11.8 | +5.2 | |
| Total formal votes | 23,684 | 97.4 | |||
| Informal votes | 643 | 2.6 | |||
| Turnout | 24,327 | 92.0 | |||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| Liberal | David Speirs | 12,493 | 52.7 | −6.5 | |
| Labor | Alex Dighton | 11,191 | 47.3 | +6.5 | |
| Liberal hold | Swing | −6.5 | |||
Candidates
[edit]Candidates who nominated for the by-election are (in ballot paper order):[4]
| Candidate nominations | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Family Party | Jonathan Parkin | [5] | |
| Liberal Party | Amanda Wilson | [6] | |
| Labor Party | Alex Dighton | [7] | |
| Greens | Sarah Luscombe | [8][9] | |
On 8 October 2024, the Labor Party preselected Sacred Heart College senior leader Alex Dighton, who previously ran for the seat 2022 election.[7]
Amanda Wilson, the mayor of Holdfast Bay, was preselected as the Liberal Party candidate. Wilson does not reside in the electorate, but says she has not ruled out moving to Black "in the longer term". Labor accused Wilson of being "parachuted" into the role.[6]
It was revealed that Wilson had been a member of the Greens before joining the Liberal Party one week prior to her preselection.[10] Wilson subsequently revealed that she had been approached by Peter Malinauskas to run for Labor in the seat of Gibson at the 2022 election, which he confirmed, as well as by Penny Wong to run as a Labor candidate for the federal seat of Boothby.[11]
On 17 October 2024, The Greens announced that City of Marion councillor, Sarah Luscombe would run as their candidate.[8]
The Australian Family Party chose pilot Jonathan Parkin as their candidate for the by-election.[5]
Campaign and controversies
[edit]The Liberal Party claimed that Labor had introduced a “Lettuce Tax”, however the ECSA intervened, ordering the posts to be removed, deeming the claim was misleading, inaccurate and breached section 113 of the Electoral Act. Liberal Opposition leader Vincent Tarzia denounced the ECSA findings as “fake news”.[12]
On 11 November 2024 it was revealed that the Liberals had spent $25,000 of public money on internal party polling by Sydney-based Freshwater Partners for the by-election. The Electoral Act requires registered political parties engaged in the public funding regime to abide by a strict spending cap of $94,482 in a by-election.[13]
While the same day, senior Liberal figure Nicolle Flint accused Labor of sexism, after they released a corflute that stated Dighton was “working with” Malinauskas while Wilson was “working under” Tarzia. Flint called for Labor to remove the advertising.[14]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | Alex Dighton | 10,132 | 47.9 | +9.8 | |
| Liberal | Amanda Wilson | 7,213 | 34.1 | −16.0 | |
| Greens | Sarah Luscombe | 2,755 | 13.0 | +1.2 | |
| Australian Family | Jonathan Parkin | 1,057 | 5.0 | +5.0 | |
| Total formal votes | 21,157 | 97.7 | +0.3 | ||
| Informal votes | 494 | 2.3 | −0.3 | ||
| Turnout | 21,651 | (81.6) | TBC* | ||
| Two-candidate-preferred result | |||||
| Labor | Alex Dighton | 12,706 | 60.1 | +12.7 | |
| Liberal | Amanda Wilson | 8,451 | 39.9 | −12.7 | |
| Labor gain from Liberal | Swing | +12.7 | |||
Count in progress. Last updated on 20 November 2024 at 15:52 ACDT.
Opinion polling
[edit]Voting intention
[edit]| Date | Firm | Interview mode |
Sample size |
Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | ALP | GRN | AFP | LIB | ALP | ||||
| 12 November 2024 | The Advertiser (exit poll)[16] | In-person | 100 | 37% | 47% | 16%[a] | — | — | |
| 19 March 2022 | 2022 election | — | 23,684 | 50.1% | 38.1% | 11.8% | — | 52.7% | 47.3% |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Combined vote for the Greens and the Australian Family Party.[16]
References
[edit]- ^ a b Starick, Paul (5 October 2024). "Black by-election date to replace David Speirs set for Saturday, November 16". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 16 November 2024. Retrieved 5 October 2024.
- ^ Green, Anthony (16 November 2024). "Black by-election 2024 Commentary". ABC News. Archived from the original on 17 November 2024.
19:26 - I've called a win for Labor's Alex Dighton. A 13.9% swing on two polling places, 10% more than needed, and on the five polling places reporting primary votes, the drop in Liberal vote continues around 18%. No way back from here.
- ^ Lim, Josephine; McClaren, Rory; Fiore, Briana (7 October 2024). "Police say former SA Liberal leader David Speirs faces drug charges. Here's how it all unfolded". Archived from the original on 17 November 2024. Retrieved 10 November 2024.
- ^ "Black by-election: Declaration of nominations". Electoral Commission South Australia. 1 November 2024. Archived from the original on 17 November 2024. Retrieved 10 November 2024.
- ^ a b "Black By-election". The Australian Family Party. Archived from the original on 17 November 2024. Retrieved 10 November 2024.
- ^ a b Yankovich, George (12 October 2024). "Holdfast Bay mayor Amanda Wilson to contest Black by-election". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 12 November 2024.
- ^ a b Kelsall, Thomas (8 October 2024). "Labor picks candidate for David Speirs' seat as Lib contenders emerge". InDaily. Archived from the original on 17 November 2024.
- ^ a b Kelsall, Thomas. "Greens pick candidate for Black by-election". Archived from the original on 17 November 2024.
- ^ "Sarah Luscombe, Candidate for Black". The Greens South Australia. Archived from the original on 5 November 2024. Retrieved 16 November 2024.
- ^ Bermingham, Kathryn (13 October 2024). "Liberal candidate for Black Amanda Wilson, who joined the Liberal Party on Friday, reveals she was previously a member of the Greens". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 13 November 2024.
- ^ Kelsall, Thomas (14 October 2024). "Lib candidate was asked to run for Labor in 2022". InDaily. Archived from the original on 17 November 2024.
- ^ Georgiou, Leon (10 November 2024). "Electoral Commissioner forces Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia to remove "Lettuce Tax" posts deeming them misleading". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 11 November 2024.
- ^ Bermingham, Kathryn (11 November 2024). "Taxpayers billed $2000 by the Liberal Party to conduct robocalls to voters in Black". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 10 November 2024.
- ^ Bermingham, Kathryn (11 November 2024). "Labor urged to remove 'sexist' ad as early voting opens in Black by-election". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 11 November 2024.
- ^ "Black By-Election 2024". ECSA. Retrieved 20 November 2024.
- ^ a b Starick, Paul; Havrilenko, Dasha; Yankovich, George (13 November 2024). "Early voting shows Black by-election down to wire as senior Labor figures express fears". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 12 November 2024. Retrieved 15 November 2024.