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2023 Guatemalan general election

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2023 Guatemalan general election
← 2019 25 June 2023 (2023-06-25) (first round)
20 August 2023 (2023-08-20) (second round)		 2027 →
Opinion polls
Presidential election
Turnout60.78% (first round) Decrease 1.06pp
44.98% (second round) Increase 2.32pp
 
Candidate Bernardo Arévalo Sandra Torres
Party Semilla UNE
Running mate Karin Herrera Romeo Guerra
Popular vote 2,442,718 1,567,664
Percentage 60.91% 39.09%
President before election

Alejandro Giammattei
Vamos

Elected President

Bernardo Arévalo
Semilla

Legislative election
All 160 seats in Congress
81 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Vote % Seats +/–
Vamos Víctor Valenzuela 18.69 39 +22
UNE Adim Maldonado 15.85 28 −24
Semilla Jonathan Menkos 14.61 23 +16
Cabal Julio Héctor Estrada 7.96 18 +18
VIVA Evelyn Morataya 5.89 11 +4
Valor–Unionist Álvaro Arzú Escobar 4.84 12 0
VOS Orlando Blanco 3.78 4 +4
Todos Felipe Alejos 3.60 6 −1
Winaq–URNG Sonia Gutiérrez 2.67 1 −6
PPN Nadia de León Torres 2.50 3 +3
BIEN Fidel Reyes Lee 2.38 4 −4
Victoria Juan Carlos Rivera 2.17 3 −1
Blue Jorge Villagrán 1.95 2 +2
Elephant Rodrigo Pellecer 1.87 2 +2
CREO Óscar Chinchilla 1.66 3 −3
Change Jorge Baldizón 1.02 1 +1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
President of the Congress before President of the Congress after
Shirley Rivera
Vamos		 Samuel Pérez
Semilla
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General elections were held in Guatemala on 25 June 2023 to elect the president and vice president, all 160 seats in Congress, all 20 members of the Central American Parliament, and mayors and councils for all the country's 340 municipalities. Incumbent president Alejandro Giammattei was constitutionally prohibited from running for a second four-year term.[1] However, as no presidential candidate obtained over 50 percent of the vote in the first round on 25 June 2023, a second round was held between the top two finishers on 20 August 2023: Congressman Bernardo Arévalo (the son of former president Juan José Arévalo) of the Movimiento Semilla and Sandra Torres, a former first lady representing the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party.[2] Arévalo defeated Torres in the second round with nearly 61 percent of the vote in what was seen as a landslide.[3] The ruling Vamos party won the largest number of seats in Congress.[4]

The certification of the first round results by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal was delayed after the Constitutional Court granted an injunction to parties who challenged the results. On 12 July, the Public Prosecution Service (MP) announced that Semilla was suspended for alleged cases of false signatures to establish the party. This action would have prohibited Arévalo's participation in the second round. The following day, the Constitutional Court reversed the suspension, paving the way for the second round of the presidential election to proceed.

President Alejandro Giammattei congratulated Arévalo for his win in the runoff, promising an orderly transition once the results are certified. A key representative of the Organization of American States (OAS), which has a team of 86 election observers in Guatemala, said the runoff voting had gone smoothly. Torres and the National Unity of Hope did not accept the electoral result and alleged electoral fraud in favor of Arévalo.[5][6]

On 12 September 2023, the Public Prosecution Service opened the boxes containing the electoral ballots. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal condemned the decision and described it as "illegal". The attorney general's office stated that there are "several investigations" against the electoral process.[7] Legally, it is not possible to open electoral boxes and it is only valid with those contested within the time established by law.[8]

On 8 December 2023, the Attorney General's office found "irregularities" in the presidential election and requested that the results be annulled. Prosecutors José Rafael Curruchiche and Leonor Eugenia Morales Lazo announced that they found "altered vote counts" inside ballot boxes and claimed the boxes were not properly secured. Lazo said the irregularities should annul the election for president, Vice President, and Congress.[9] On 14 December, the Constitutional Court, in a 4–1 decision, upheld the results of the election, ordered the Congress to "guarantee" the inauguration of Arévalo, and rejected the moves of the Public Prosecutor to have the elections nullified.[10] However, challenges in the Congress led to delays in the inauguration, which finally took place in the early morning of 15 January.[11]

Background

[edit]

In July 2021, Attorney General María Consuelo Porras dismissed the head of the special prosecutor's office against impunity, Juan Francisco Sandoval. Sandoval left the country shortly afterwards to 'protect [his] life and integrity'. The Attorney General subsequently increased investigations on judges, lawyers and prosecutors linked to the fight against corruption; several former investigators of the Special Prosecutor's Office against Impunity (FECI) and the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) were arrested in 2022 and others forced into exile or else continually harassed.[12][13] Among the exiled judges are Miguel Ángel Gálvez (known for handling the La Línea corruption case) and Erika Aifán (awarded with the International Women of Courage Award in 2021).[13] In September 2021, the United States Department of State announced that it had added Porras to a list of "undemocratic and corrupt" officials.[14] According to the US State Department, Porras "actively undermined" the corruption investigations conducted by Sandoval and his team.[14] Among those sanctioned by the United States are also the Secretary General of the Public Prosecution Service Ángel Pineda and the head of the Special Prosecutor's Office Against Impunity and Porras' right-hand man, Rafael Curruchiche.[15]

At the end of July 2022, the police arrested journalist José Rubén Zamora, founder of the daily El Periódico, and searched the newspaper's headquarters, which had accused President Alejandro Giammattei and Attorney General Consuelo Porras of corruption.[16] Some journalists also went into exile after the Public Prosecution Service began investigations against them.[17] During the trial of José Rubén Zamora in 2023, a judge asked to initiate an investigation against nine journalists.[18] In November 2022, Amnesty International declared Virginia Laparra a "prisoner of conscience". Laparra was one of the jailed anti-corruption prosecutors who was part of Juan Francisco Sandoval's team.[19]

The United Nations and the European Union condemned the investigations of anti-corruption prosecutors in Guatemala and expressed that these procedures "weaken" the rule of law.[20] The International Federation for Human Rights, the World Organisation Against Torture and other NGOs warned in 2022 about the "strengthening of authoritarian rule" in Guatemala and declared that the country was "experiencing an alarming phenomenon of capture and control of public institutions by economic and political elites".[21]

A sharp increase in violent crime and a punishingly high cost of living have made Giammattei deeply unpopular.[22] In January 2022, halfway through his term, Giammattei had a 27% approval rating according to a CID Gallup poll, one of the lowest among the continent's presidents.[23] In 2023, only 2.9% of respondents rate the Giammattei administration as good.[24] Emigration to the United States increased sharply under his presidency.[22]

Registration of candidates

[edit]

The registration of candidates for the elections was also clouded by criticism for the "unclear" arguments used by the Registry of Citizens and the magistrates of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The ticket of Movement for the Liberation of Peoples was not registered due to "legal problems" of the vice-presidential candidate Jordán Rodas;[25] while Roberto Arzú's candidacy was revoked for allegedly carrying out "anticipated campaigning".[25] Presidential candidate Edmond Mulet was denounced by the Public Prosecution Service for three consecutive days. The first complaint he received was for having spoken out against the investigation of the nine journalists during the Zamora trial, while the other two were for allegedly engaging in "anticipated campaigning" for which reason Mulet's participation is uncertain.[26][27] The Supreme Court of Justice rejected the challenge, however, on 11 May, the Public Prosecution Service challenged Mulet's candidacy before the Constitutional Court.[28]

On 21 March 2023, the Electoral Tribunal announced that it had rejected the candidacy of the party Commitment, Renewal and Order due to "legal problems" of presidential candidate Francisco Arredondo.[29] The political party filed a legal appeal to reverse the decision of the electoral court, finally, the magistrates accepted the appeal and registered Arredondo as a presidential candidate.[30] The candidacies presented by the Opportunities and Development Party were annulled for not correctly carrying out their nomination assemblies.[31]

Cabal[32] and the URNG–Winaq coalition[33] challenged the candidacy of Zury Ríos before the Registry of Citizens, stating that the Constitution prevented her from running for the presidency because she is the daughter of former president Efraín Ríos Montt who came to power through a coup. Although the appeals were dismissed, Cabal also challenged before the Supreme Court of Justice and the Constitutional Court but they were rejected and Ríos's candidacy remained firm.[32][34]

Todos challenged the candidacy of Sandra Torres before the Registry of Citizens, the Supreme Court of Justice and the Constitutional Court, affirming that Romeo Guerra, Torres's nominee for vice president, had a constitutional impediment, since the Constitution prevents ministers of worship to running for president and vice president and Guerra was an evangelical pastor before becoming Torres's running mate. The process was rejected by the Electoral Registry and the Supreme Court of Justice.[35][36] Finally, the Constitutional Court rejected the legal challenge and Torres's candidacy was maintained.[37]

In May 2023, Change challenged the candidacy of Carlos Pineda before the Supreme Court of Justice. The legal filing claimed that there were "irregularities" in the nomination assemblies of Citizen Prosperity.[38] On 19 May, a judge accepted the legal appeal presented, so Carlos Pineda's candidacy was annulled, along with 218 other candidates for deputies and mayors from Citizen Prosperity.[39][40] On 9 June, a court accepted a legal appeal filed by the Secretary-General of Citizen Prosperity Lilian Piedad García and ordered the registration of lists for candidates for deputies in eleven departments, however, the presidential ticket, the candidates for deputies by National List, the Central District, the Central American Parliament and the other eleven departments, and mayoral candidates remained out of contention.[41] On 11 June, the Constitutional Court revoked the legal recourse granted to the party and ordered the Public Prosecution Service to investigate the court that issued the recourse.[42]

The opposition party Semilla has alleged "irregularities" in a case against it for allegedly forging the signature of a party affiliate. The file was transferred from the Electoral Crimes Prosecutor's Office to the Special Prosecutor's Office Against Impunity led by Curruchiche. Presidential candidate Bernardo Arévalo said that these actions put the party's electoral participation at risk.[43] Deputy Samuel Pérez Álvarez alleged "partiality" on the part of the judicial authorities. He also indicated that in 2015, the Registry of Citizens detected alleged anomalies in almost 12,000 signatures of members of the Progressive Liberator Party (now Valor) and the process has not advanced.[44][45]

The opposition party Will, Opportunity and Solidarity led by presidential candidate Manuel Villacorta was denounced for allegedly falsifying affiliate signatures in May 2023. Villacorta has previously denounced "systematic attacks" to curb his party's participation.[46][47]

Campaign

[edit]

Results from the 2020 Latinobarómetro survey indicated that Guatemala had one of the lowest levels of trust and support for democracy in the region among the electorate: only 37% of citizens considered democracy to be preferable to any other form of government, and 65% were not satisfied with how it operated in Guatemala. In terms of political rights, only 9% of Guatemalans considered that their right to participate in political life is fully guaranteed. The atmosphere of optimism for change that had been present for the elections in 2015 had faded by 2020.[48]

Of the 4.5 million registered citizens aged between 18 and 30, only 2.6 million were on the electoral roll and eligible to vote in 2023.[48]

A substantial number of candidates ran a right-wing campaign, highlighting their attachment to religious values and the defence of private property, as well as their opposition to the legalisation of abortion. In particular, the security policies of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele were held up as an example to follow. The Evangelical churches continue to have a major influence on political life, having participated in the selection of Supreme Court and Constitutional Court judges, among other things. During the final debate of the campaign, the discussions focused in particular on gay marriage, while the issue of poverty, which affects at least 54% of the population, was ignored. On the contrary, "the discourse and ideas of the left have disappeared from the debate", due to the elimination of the most popular left-wing candidates by the electoral authorities.[49]

The three favourites in the election (Ríos, Torres, and Mulet) made extensive use of clientelist practices. People who came to their meetings were offered various gifts, even a sum of money in the case of Ríos. Political party activists circulate among the ranks, taking down the names and addresses of those present as "primary beneficiaries" in the event of their candidate's victory. Vote buying is a common practice in Guatemalan elections and often goes unpunished.[49]

After proceeding to the run-off, Torres focused on winning over conservative voters, particularly supporters of Ríos. Torres expressed her opposition to same-sex marriage and instead promoted family values.[50] She accused Semilla of being a "socialist" and "communist" party.[51] She accused her second round opponent, Arévalo, of being a puppet of both former attorney general Thelma Aldana and Colombian defense minister Iván Velásquez. Aldana and Velásquez together had investigated corruption cases in Guatemala for the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala. Political analyst Luis Mack noted that Torres's attacks against Arévalo were an appeal to religious conservatives and the far-right, both of which opposed anti-corruption efforts and foreign interference in Guatemala.[50] Torres also accused Arévalo of wanting to expropriate private property and end religious freedom in favor of an "LGBT ideology".[51]

Fraud allegations

[edit]

Some political parties and their presidential candidates such as Amílcar Rivera (Victory),[52] Arévalo (Semilla)[52] and Manuel Villacorta (Will, Opportunity and Solidarity)[53] openly expressed the possibility of electoral fraud. Adding to these denunciations were the excluded presidential candidates Thelma Cabrera (Movement for the Liberation of Peoples),[54] Roberto Arzú (Podemos)[53] and Pineda (Citizen Prosperity),[55] the last of whom saw a steep rise in opinion polls in April 2023, placing him within the top three finishers.[56]

Journalist Andrés Oppenheimer compared the electoral fraud accusations in Guatemala to Donald Trump's attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election.[57]

Electoral system

[edit]

President

[edit]

The President of Guatemala is elected using the two-round system.[58]

Congress

[edit]

The 160 members of Congress are elected by two methods; 130 are elected from 22 multi-member constituencies based on the departments, with the remaining 31 elected from a single nationwide constituency. Seats are elected using closed list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the D'Hondt method.[58]

District Seats
Alta Verapaz 9
Baja Verapaz 2
Chimaltenango 5
Chiquimula 3
El Progreso 2
Escuintla 6
Guatemala 19
Guatemala City 11
Huehuetenango 10
Izabal 3
Jalapa 3
Jutiapa 4
National List 32
Petén 4
Quetzaltenango 7
Quiché 8
Retalhuleu 3
Sacatepéquez 3
San Marcos 9
Santa Rosa 3
Sololá 3
Suchitepéquez 5
Totonicapán 4
Zacapa 2
Total 160

Presidential candidates

[edit]
Party Presidential candidate Vice presidential candidate[a] Date declared
UNE
UNE 		Sandra Torres
First Lady of Guatemala
(2008–2011) 		Romeo Guerra 8 January 2023[59]
Blue
Party 		Isaac Farchi
Member of the Congress
(1996–2000) 		Mauricio Zaldaña 4 December 2022[60]
Valor
Valor
Unionist
Unionist 		Zury Ríos (Valor)
2nd Vice President of the Congress
(2000–2004)
Member of the Congress
(1996–2012) 		Héctor Cifuentes (Unionist)
Member of the Congress
(2000–2004)
Minister of Labor
(1997–1998) 		11 December 2022[61]
Cabal Edmond Mulet
Head of MINUSTAH
(2006–2007; 2010–2011)
President of the Congress
(1992–1993)
Member of the Congress
(1982–1993) 		Máximo Santa Cruz 11 December 2022[62]
Todos
Todos 		Ricardo Sagastume
Minister of Economy
(2015) 		Guillermo González 23 October 2022[63]
Vamos
Vamos 		Manuel Conde
Member of the Congress
(2016–2024)
Member of the Central American
Parliament
(1991–1996) 		Luis Antonio Suárez 7 January 2023[64]
PHG
PHG 		Rudio Lecsan Mérida
Member of the Congress
(1996–2000; 2020–present)
Head of PNC
(2000–2001) 		Rubén Darío Rosales
Mayor of Santa María Cahabón
(2008–2012) 		10 December 2022[65]
Republican
Party 		Rafael Espada
Member of the Central American
Parliament
(2012–2016)
Vice President of Guatemala
(2008–2012) 		Arturo Herrador 14 January 2023[66]
National
Integration
Party 		Luis Lam Padilla
Ambassador to the United Nations
(2019–2022) 		Otto Marroquín 8 January 2023[67]
Elephant
Community 		Hugo Peña Hugo Jhonson 11 February 2023[68]
Victory
Victory 		Amílcar Rivera
Mayor of Mixco
(2004–2012) 		Fernando Mazariegos 15 January 2023[69]
Semilla Bernardo Arévalo
Member of the Congress
(2020–2024)
Ambassador to Spain
(1995–1996)
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs
(1994–1995) 		Karin Larissa Herrera 22 January 2023[70]
FCN
FCN 		Sammy Morales Miguel Ángel Moir 12 February 2023[71]
PPN Rudy Guzmán Diego González
Member of the Congress
(2020–present) 		22 January 2023[72]
Republican
Union 		Giulio Talamonti
Director of the Penitentiary System
(2009) 		Oscar Barrientos 29 January 2023[73]
URNG
URNG
Winaq
Winaq 		Amílcar Pop (Winaq)
Member of the Central American
Parliament
(2020–present)
Member of the Congress
(2012–2020) 		Mónica Enríquez (URNG) 29 January 2023[74]
CREO
CREO 		Francisco Arredondo
Minister of Public Health
(2012) 		Francisco Bermúdez Amado
Minister of Defense
(2005–2006) 		26 February 2023[75]
BIEN
BIEN 		Giovanni Reyes Oscar Figueroa 12 February 2023[76]
VIVA
VIVA 		Armando Castillo
3rd Vice President of the Congress
(2020–2022)
Member of the Congress
(2020–2024) 		Édgar Grisolia 11 February 2023[77]
My Family Julio Rivera Clavería
Deputy Minister of the Interior
(1988–1989; 2012) 		José Urrutia Estrada 18 March 2023[78]
Change Álvaro Trujillo Baldizón
Member of the Congress
(2012–2016) 		Miguel Ángel Ibarra
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs
(2008–2010) 		5 February 2023[79]
VOS Manuel Villacorta
Ambassador to Israel
(1999–2000) 		Jorge Mario García España 26 February 2023[80]

Rejected

[edit]
Party Presidential candidate Vice presidential candidate[a] Date declared
MLP Thelma Cabrera Jordán Rodas
Ombudsman
(2017–2022) 		28 December 2022[81]
Podemos Roberto Arzú David Pineda 11 December 2022[82]
PODER Óscar Rodolfo Castañeda
Minister of Agriculture
(2000)
Member of the Congress
(1996–2000) 		Luis Adrián Ruiz
Deputy Minister of Communications
(2012) 		19 March 2023[83]
PC
PC 		Carlos Pineda Efraín Orozco 5 February 2023[84]

Declined

[edit]

Parties

[edit]

The following political parties did not run for a presidential ticket, but did run candidates for deputies and mayors.

Individuals

[edit]

Congress

[edit]
Party Leader 2019 result
Votes (%) Seats
National Unity of Hope Adim Maldonado 17.92%
54 / 160
Vamos Víctor Valenzuela 7.96%
17 / 160
Valor Álvaro Arzú Escobar 4.55%
9 / 160
Unionist Party 2.93%
3 / 160
National Convergence Front Jimmy Morales 5.23%
8 / 160
Bienestar Nacional Fidel Reyes Lee 4.79%
8 / 160
Movimiento Semilla Jonathan Menkos 5.24%
7 / 160
Vision with Values Evelyn Morataya 4.70%
7 / 160
Todos Felipe Alejos 4.39%
7 / 160
Winaq Sonia Gutiérrez 3.50%
4 / 160
Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity 2.78%
3 / 160
Humanist Party of Guatemala Laura Mérida 4.66%
6 / 160
Commitment, Renewal and Order Óscar Chinchilla 4.40%
6 / 160
Victory Juan Carlos Rivera 2.51%
4 / 160
National Advancement Party Aníbal Rojas 2.72%
2 / 160
Movement for the Liberation of Peoples Blanca Julia Ajtún 2.98%
1 / 160
Podemos Ronald Sierra 1.68%
1 / 160
National Change Union[b] — — 5.46%
12 / 160
Republican Union Herber Melgar Padilla New party
Blue Party Jorge Mario Villagrán New party
Nosotros Nadia de León Torres New party
Cabal Julio Héctor Estrada New party
Change Jorge Baldizón New party
Guatemalan People's Party Elder Zoel Arévalo New party
Republican Party Carlos Velásquez New party
Elephant Community Rodrigo Pellecer New party
National Integration Party Henry Castillo New party
Will, Opportunity and Solidarity Orlando Blanco New party
My Family Byron López New party

Opinion polls

[edit]
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 Guatemalan general election

Second round

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Arévalo
Semilla 		Torres
UNE 		Blank/ Null
Second round 20 August 2023 — 60.9% 39.1% —
Prodatos / Prensa Libre[97] 10–14 August 2023 1,200 64.9% 35.1% —
53.6% 29.0% 17.4%
CID Gallup[98] 4–13 August 2023 1,819 61.0% 39.0% —
CID Gallup[99] 18–27 July 2023 1,242 63.0% 37.0% —
Innovem[100] 20–26 July 2023 3,773 37.8% 45.0% 17.2%

First round

[edit]

Results

[edit]

President

[edit]
CandidateRunning matePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Sandra TorresRomeo GuerraNational Unity of Hope888,92421.101,567,66439.09
Bernardo ArévaloKarin HerreraSemilla653,48615.512,442,71860.91
Manuel CondeLuis Antonio SuárezVamos436,91810.37
Armando CastilloÉdgar GrisoliaVision with Values397,4699.44
Edmond MuletMáximo Santa CruzCabal369,9038.78
Zury RíosHéctor CifuentesValor–Unionist366,5748.70
Manuel VillacortaJorge Mario GarcíaWill, Opportunity and Solidarity236,8865.62
Giovanni ReyesÓscar FigueroaBienestar Nacional142,1293.37
Amílcar RiveraFernando MazariegosVictory137,7933.27
Amílcar PopMónica EnríquezWinaq–URNG–MAIZ88,2112.09
Ricardo SagastumeGuillermo GonzálezTodos78,5031.86
Rudy GuzmánDiego GonzálezNosotros66,9621.59
Isaac FarchiMauricio ZaldañaBlue Party61,5441.46
Julio RiveraJosé UrrutiaMy Family46,3651.10
Francisco ArredondoFrancisco BermúdezCommitment, Renewal and Order43,7861.04
Giulio TalamontiÓscar BarrientosRepublican Union40,3630.96
Hugo PeñaHugo JohnsonElephant Community39,6580.94
Rudio Lecsan MéridaRubén Darío RosalesHumanist Party35,4230.84
Rafael EspadaArturo HerradorRepublican Party32,4970.77
Sammy MoralesMiguel Ángel MoirNational Convergence Front22,8160.54
Álvaro TrujilloMiguel Ángel IbarraChange18,3060.43
Luis Lam PadillaOtto MarroquínNational Integration Party7,9440.19
Total4,212,460100.004,010,382100.00
Valid votes4,212,46074.924,010,38295.25
Invalid votes1,021,60718.17147,1653.50
Blank votes388,3636.9152,6871.25
Total votes5,622,430100.004,210,234100.00
Registered voters/turnout9,249,79460.789,361,06844.98
Source: TSE (first round) TSE (second round)

Congress

[edit]
Congreso de Guatemala (2023)
Party or allianceNationalDistrictTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Vamos628,12615.066696,32515.543339+23
National Unity of Hope538,01012.905571,86712.762328–26
Semilla488,69211.725430,2979.601823+16
Cabal371,2158.903401,0358.951518New
Vision with Values288,5466.923258,6055.77811+4
Valor–UnionistValor–Unionist229,8615.512124,1332.7735New
Valor–197,5384.4177–2
Unionist Party–22,3630.5000–3
Will, Opportunity and Solidarity186,4384.471178,7503.9934New
Todos169,1014.051198,8934.4456–1
URNG–MAIZ–WinaqURNG–MAIZ–Winaq133,6943.21125,0130.5601New
Winaq–76,1371.7000–3
Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity–87,6871.9600–3
Nosotros131,2173.151138,7423.1023New
Victory124,9463.001126,8302.8323–
Bienestar Nacional112,7422.701121,4882.7134–4
Blue Party98,4872.361109,8022.4512New
Elephant Community95,4352.29190,0402.0112New
Podemos86,4752.07087,0111.9400–1
Commitment, Renewal and Order84,6672.030102,4212.2933–3
Movement for the Liberation of Peoples74,8021.79081,1421.8100–1
Humanist Party of Guatemala61,5641.48072,0591.6100–6
Change52,7541.26087,8211.9611New
National Advancement Party45,9401.10041,5940.9300–2
My Family45,4021.09044,5760.9900New
Republican Union34,9820.84034,1590.7600New
National Convergence Front28,8270.69029,3860.6600–8
Guatemalan People's Party23,8370.57012,6720.2800New
Republican Party21,6580.52020,1150.4500New
National Integration Party13,9270.33012,4160.2800New
Total4,171,345100.00324,480,917100.00128160–
Source: TSE (99.13% counted, national votes) TSE

Central American Parliament

[edit]
20
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Vamos655,90617.755+2
National Unity of Hope594,91816.104–1
Semilla425,62911.523+2
Vision with Values274,1937.422+1
Valor–Unionist256,2916.942+1
Todos166,5094.511–
Will, Opportunity and Solidarity155,1814.201+1
Nosotros131,2843.551+1
Victory120,1063.251+1
URNG–MAIZ–Winaq118,9983.220–2
Bienestar Nacional108,0302.920–
Elephant Community100,9322.730–
Blue Party95,5402.590–
Podemos86,1162.330–
Commitment, Renewal and Order81,8922.220–1
Humanist Party of Guatemala70,2191.900–
Change55,2761.500–
My Family48,9481.320–
National Advancement Party41,7121.130–
Republican Union34,4150.930–
National Convergence Front28,9300.780–2
Guatemalan People's Party23,4350.630–
Republican Party20,6660.560–
Total3,695,126100.0020–
Valid votes3,695,12665.83
Invalid votes1,272,52122.67
Blank votes645,51111.50
Total votes5,613,158100.00
Source: TSE (99.10% percent counted)

Mayors

[edit]
Party Number of mayors Total votes %
Vamos 132/340 38.82%
Cabal 49/340 14.41%
National Unity of Hope 39/340 11.47%
Civic committees 20/340 5.88%
Todos 15/340 4.41%
Valor 14/340 4.12%
Nosotros 10/340 2.94%
Vision with Values 9/340 2.65%
Valor–Unionist Party 9/340 2.65%
Bienestar Nacional 6/340 1.76%
Podemos 5/340 1.47%
Cambio 5/340 1.47%
Victory 5/340 1.47%
Humanist Party of Guatemala 4/340 1.18%
Commitment, Renewal and Order 3/340 0.88%
Blue Party 2/340 0.59%
Movement for the Liberation of Peoples 2/340 0.59%
Unionist Party 2/340 0.59%
Elephant Community 2/340 0.59%
Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity 2/340 0.59%
Will, Opportunity and Solidarity 1/340 0.29%
Semilla 1/340 0.29%
Winaq 1/340 0.29%
Guatemalan People's Party 1/340 0.29%
URNG–Winaq 0/340 0.00%
Semilla–URNG 0/340 0.00%
Republican Union 0/340 0.00%
Semilla–URNG–Winaq 0/340 0.00%
My Family 0/340 0.00%
Republican Party 0/340 0.00%
National Convergence Front 0/340 0.00%
National Advancement Party 0/340 0.00%
Opportunities and Development Party 0/340 0.00%
National Integration Party 0/340 0.00%
Source: TSE (99.12% votes counted)

Aftermath

[edit]

First round

[edit]
Map of the number of invalid and blank votes as a share of total votes by municipality in the first round

No presidential candidate obtained more than 50% of the vote in the first round, meaning a second round was required. In an upset, Bernardo Arévalo finished in second place, qualifying for the runoff along with one of the favorites to win, former first lady and 2015 and 2019 presidential runner-up Sandra Torres. Zury Ríos and Edmond Mulet, two other candidates that ranked near the top of opinion polls, finished in 6th and 5th place, respectively.

The first round also saw a record number of invalid ballots, where more than 24% of voters either spoilt their ballots or left their ballots blank entirely. This was attributed to distrust among the electorate towards the electoral system, including the disqualification of some presidential candidates.[101][102]

Ensuing controversies

[edit]
President Alejandro Giammattei and members of his cabinet meet with Eladio Loizaga and an OAS delegation

The official count of the general election by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal indicated that Sandra Torres from National Unity of Hope and Bernardo Arévalo from Semilla would contest the second round.[103] However, the certification of the result by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal was delayed after the Constitutional Court of Guatemala granted an injunction to 10 parties that challenged the result. The court wanted to compare the tallies in the electoral system with the tallies from the polling places. Due to the injunction, the results of the races for president, vice president, all of the seats in Congress and hundreds of local elections remained unofficial.[104] The Electoral Observation Mission in Guatemala, the United Nations, the Organization of American States, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union asked the court to respect the electoral results, said that the results matched their observations and denied any accusations of electoral fraud.[104][105][106][107][108]

The Supreme Court of Justice ruled that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal correctly carried out what was requested by the Constitutional Court and rejected the legal recourse requested by the nine parties, therefore releasing the injunction and permitted the results be made official.[109]

On 12 July, the Public Prosecution Service announced that at their request judge Fredy Orellana had suspended Semilla's legal personality for alleged cases of false signatures to establish the party.[110] However, Article 92 of the Electoral and Political Parties Law establishes that "A party may not be suspended after an election has been called and until it has been held".[111] Previously, member of Congress Samuel Pérez Álvarez of Semilla had announced the possibility of attempting a legal "maneuver" to dissolve the party and thus avoid Arévalo's participation in a second round.[112] The Public Prosecution Service's actions were widely condemned by the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and various foreign governments.[113]

On 13 July, the Constitutional Court reversed the suspension, paving the way for the second round of the presidential election to proceed.[114] Although the Constitutional Court legally favored Semilla, the judge and the Public Prosecution Service continued to pressure the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to cancel the party's participation in the election.[115][116] Judge Orellana requested the capture of electoral officials with immunity and then ordered a search of the headquarters of the Semilla party. During the raid at the party headquarters, Semilla's legal team, led by Juan Gerardo Guerrero and Ligia Hernández, submitted a petition for personal exhibition in order to clarify the situation of the workers who were inside the facilities.[117][118] The Supreme Electoral Tribunal requested a legal appeal to the Constitutional Court, affirming that these authorities could attempt to violate the "democratic rule of law" in the future, or the constitutional order.[119]

On 19 August, two days before the runoff, the Supreme Court of Justice granted a permanent injunction to Semilla, blocking a lower court's order suspending the party's legal status.[120]

Second round

[edit]
President Giammattei casts his ballot during the second round

Arévalo defeated Torres in the second round with nearly 61 percent of the vote in what was seen as a landslide.[3] It is the first election since the return to democracy in 1985 in which the winning party does not have clientelist networks.[121]

On the day of the second round of the election, there were several bomb explosions at voting centers across the country.[122]

After the results were announced on the night of 20 August, hundreds of citizens congregated in the Obelisco in Guatemala City, as well as the central park of Quetzaltenango to celebrate Arévalo's victory.[123]

On 28 August, the TSE, in a conference, officialized the results of the second round.[124]

Reactions

[edit]

National and regional

[edit]

President Alejandro Giammattei congratulated Arévalo for his win in a post on X, saying he would "extend the invitation to start the ordered transition the day after the results are official."[125]

Several regional presidents sent their congratulations to president-elect Arévalo, including President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico.[126] On 21 August, President Joe Biden of the United States congratulated Arévalo on a post made on X, remarking the "fair and peaceful" election that took place in the second round.[127] That same day, President Xiomara Castro of Honduras and President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua gave their congratulations to Arévalo and the Guatemalan populace.[128]

Eladio Loizaga, head of the electoral observation mission deployed by the Organization of American States (OAS), said the voting went smoothly and that the election had "fulfilled all the demanding obligations".[129]

Eduardo Núñez,[130] the Guatemala resident senior director for the National Democratic Institute, expected two trends to continue and intensify in the coming days: the country's polarization and the judicialization of the electoral process. He said there will be three key moments: the immediate positions staked out by Semilla and National Unity of Hope party about the results; then on 31 October, when Guatemala's electoral process officially ends and Semilla will no longer enjoy the legal protection that would keep it from being cancelled, and finally on 14 January, when Giammattei is constitutionally mandated to leave office.[131]

Edmond Mulet, who finished fifth in the first round, told Associated Press after Arévalo's victory that he sees at least two possible scenarios in the coming weeks and months, both of which see the cancellation of Semilla's registration. In one, Semilla has its registration cancelled but Arévalo is allowed to assume the presidency without a party. It would have dire effects on his party's representatives in Congress, however, who would be barred from holding leadership positions or leading committees and would already be in minority from the beginning. In the other scenario, the Attorney General's Office succeeds in cancelling the legal status of Semilla, and it makes the argument that because the party was improperly registered, everything that occurred afterward, including Arévalo's nomination, is nullified and he cannot assume the presidency.[131]

International

[edit]

Political crisis

[edit]

In August 2023, judge Fredy Orellana issued a ruling to reinstate a suspension of Semilla's party registration. The Registry of Citizens of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal provisionally cancelled the party's registration on 28 August.[142] Semilla filed an appeal, saying the ruling was an attempt to prevent the party's parliamentarians and president-elect from taking office.[143] Semilla had previously been targeted during the 2019 elections, with its presidential candidate, Thelma Aldana, considered the frontrunner, having her candidacy rejected for dubious reasons. She appealed but was denied.[144][145] On 30 August 2023, President of Congress Shirley Rivera dissolved the parliamentary group of Semilla and declared them "independent". President-elect and member of Congress Bernardo Arévalo was also affected by the decision.[146] On 3 September, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal nullified the suspension of the party's registration through October.[147][148] The offices of the TSE were also raided several times under the pretense of investigating alleged fraud, despite no evidence being presented.[149]

Shortly after announcing Arévalo as winner, documents were published from the citizens registry suspending Semilla's registration once more, meaning that the members of Congress elected as part of the party would be forced to sit as independents. Arévalo said he would not "give up", and the move was condemned by the Organization of American States.[150] Following several raids on Semilla offices around the country committed by the Public Prosecutor's Office, Arévalo formally suspended his participation in the presidential transition, saying that the raids were "flagrant crimes of abuse of authority for electoral purposes". President Alejandro Giammattei disagreed with the move, stating that the executive branch had nothing to do with it.[151]

Following urging from the international community, Arévalo formally resumed the process on 4 October, despite Attorney General of Guatemala María Consuelo Porras' continued effort to deregister Semilla as a political party, including raids on the Supreme Electoral Tribune's offices.[152] An OAS mediator was named to help manage the transition two days later,[153] with the organisation's observation mission stating that it appeared the actions by prosecutors were intended to keep Arévalo from taking office. Protests in favor of Arévalo also intensified following the Supreme Court of Justice of Guatemala upholding the party's suspension.[154] Schools were subsequently closed across the country, and President Giammattei condemned any violence that might occur.[155][156][157]

On 2 November, Movimiento Semilla was officially suspended by the Public Ministry. Indigenous movements vowed to continue to protest, and the United States government stripped the visas of 14 people in the Public Ministry on the same day. The U.S. State Department's Deputy Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Eric Jacobstein, stated that the suspension was worrisome as an apparent way to interfere with Arévalo's transition to office. The suspension also means that members of the party elected to the Congress of the Republic of Guatemala under the banner of the party cannot hold leadership positions or chair committees. It also means that the party cannot hold assemblies or carry out administrative procedures.[158][159]

In mid-November, the Public Ministry requested that the immunity of the President-elect Arévalo and the Vice President-elect Herrera be withdrawn for allegedly participating in the takeover of the facilities of the state university, the Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala, which occurred between April 2022 to June 2023.[160][161] This takeover occurred as a result of alleged irregularities that occurred in the elections for rector of the university, where Walter Mazariegos was elected.[161] In 2023, Mazariegos was included on the United States government's Engel List. According to the State Department, Mazariegos "undermined democratic processes or institutions by accepting the position of rector of the public education institution in July 2022 following a fraudulent selection process".[162] The capture of former ombudsman and opposition candidate for rector Jordán Rodas, former candidate for member of Congress for Semilla Marcela Blanco and Gabriela Dávila, sister of member of Congress Aldo Dávila, were ordered. The arrest of around twenty university students and professors who opposed Mazariegos was also ordered.[161]

This case raised controversy because the Public Ministry continued with the investigation against the President-elect and Vice President-elect despite the fact that the National Institute of Forensic Sciences of Guatemala determined through an expert report that there were no indications of the alleged participation of Arévalo and Herrera. However, the Public Ministry criticized the results.[163] In early December, prosecutor's from Porras' office called for the results to be officially annulled due to electoral fraud, despite international observers declaring the election to have been free from fraud. This was met with further protests against the Attorney General's office, and further condemnation by international organizations, such as the United Nations and OAS again.[164]

In 2023, Porras' final attempt to block the inauguration by alleging fraud was taken to the Constitutional Court of Guatemala, who denied Porras her attempt and later issued an order to guarantee Arévalo his inauguration.[165] In January, it issued another order giving immunity to the Vice President elect, Karin Herrera, who had been repeatedly under risk of being arrested by Porras.[166] Despite this, however, Porras has continued to target former members of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, and arrested former Interior Minister David Napoleón Barrientos Girón for his refusal to violently disperse protests against Porras.[167]

The planned Inauguration of Arévalo would be delayed on 14 January as well as a result of infighting over who the overseeing commission would select for the congressional delegation.[168] On the same day, clashes between erupted between Arévalo's supporters and riot police,[169] while Semilla representatives were reportedly detained inside Congress.[170] A nine-hour delay of the inauguration of Arévalo and Herrera caused by a delay of the inauguration of incoming deputies, due to a judicial order earlier in the day by the Constitutional Court stripping Semilla of party status.[171] Led by Semilla leader Samuel Pérez, the Semilla deputies negotiated a deal to be recognized as a bloc in Congress and elect Semilla deputies to congressional leadership, including the Board of Directors and the Debate Board. The deal secured a majority of 92 votes against a rival bid by Shirley Rivera, and Pérez was elected president of the Board. The Board members were elected and sworn in minutes before midnight, which then allowed for Congress to proceed with the inauguration of Arévalo and Herrera.[172] The swearing-in of the new President and Vice President would eventually be held in minutes after midnight 15 January 2024, with Pérez officiating.[168]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Same party as the presidential candidate, unless mentioned in parentheses
  2. ^ Party registration cancelled by the Electoral Tribunal in 2019

References

[edit]
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