Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Miscellaneous/2011 January 24

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January 24

Speed limit of a developing economy

I don't understand much about economics but I am very curious about the concepct described below:

"China is passing through a prolonged process of convergence with the developed economies, and inflation is triggered when the speed limits on that convergence are exceeded. These limits are set by factors like the speed at which labour can migrate from rural agriculture to urban agriculture, and the speed at which the capital stock…can be increased to absorb the available labour supply."

[1]

Can anyone explain what this speed limit is in simpler terms? Do other developing economies have different speed limits? Why?

Saberrattlingsnake (talk) 05:03, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

There's a careful balance to be made between underemployment and overemployment in any economy. Having too many people in an urban area out of work is bad; it leads to shanty towns and slums, as people rush into a city from the hinterland expecting to find better work than they did back when they were subsistance farming on some tiny patch of barely arable land somewhere. That can put the breaks on development, as such people need to be dealt with. On the other hand, overemployment can also be a problem; if there are too many openings with too few people to fill them, you end up with people filling those positions who are underqualified, they are therefore bad at their job, and can hurt the economy if there are too many people like that. They also tend to demand higher wages, which can put a crimp on things as companies have to essentially pay more money for lower quality work. Such an event is called a Labor shortage and during the Plague years in the middle ages, for example, it created huge economic problems. The trick is to maintain an economy where there is the right number of jobs for the people who need to be employed. Its bad to have either too many or too few availible job openings for people. --Jayron32 05:10, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Your quote describes the problem fairly well. If businesses in a country collectively try to grow at too fast a rate, then their demand for loans to finance that growth will exceed the supply of savings, forcing up interest rates. Their demand for labor will exceed the growth in the labor force, resulting in labor shortages, as Jayron has explained. This forces up wages, and/or the workers drawn to the areas of fastest growth will increase the demand for housing faster than housing can be built, forcing up the price of housing. The result of a labor shortage is typically inflation, or a general rise in prices and a drop in the value of savings. Too much inflation can hurt growth by discouraging (and ultimately wiping out) savings, which in turn discourages lending, which makes it more difficult for businesses to borrow and grow. Economic growth speed limits vary quite a bit from one country to another. For example, countries in which the labor force is declining, such as Russia or some developed countries (Japan, Italy), will have relatively low speed limits. If growth rises above maybe 3% per year in these countries, there may be a risk of inflation. Countries with ample land, good infrastructure, and underemployed labor, such as South Africa, will have relatively high speed limits, perhaps higher than those of China. Marco polo (talk) 19:13, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Daily Mail Talk Page

The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

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There appears to be nothing negative on the Daily Mail (newspaper) article. While suggesting additions i noted that there are just a few users who seem to watch the article, resist anything negative being added (even with links to back it up or said addition receiving international coverage) I'm fairly sure that's not allowed as it is claiming ownership over an article and deliberately keeping the article biased.

Can someone please confirm this or just take a look at the Talk page? Thanks Jenova20 (talk) 11:52, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Actually this is kinda the wrong place for this query. I would suggest,however, that neutral editors are more than welcome at that article, which does, in fact, include much criticism of the Daily Mail. Collect (talk) 12:27, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Happens all the time. The "owner" of the Guy Fawkes Night kept it as an anti-catholic festival, rather than a reson to let off fireworks and have a night-time outdoor party for children, although the article is not as bad as it was. The TalkPage criticism has also, I see, disapeared. 92.15.26.222 (talk) 12:31, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

User talk:108.72.201.109 appears to be appropriate in regard to the above comment. Collect (talk) 12:45, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Thanks for the speedy reply. I'm not sure what to do about this then as any changes i make, even with proper sources would be undone by "Christian1985 (talk)" Where do i stand here as i'd rather not get drawn into an edit war and am not as experienced at Wikipedian as him and i believe looking at his talk page that he has a personal interest in keeping this article how it is and devoid of any change. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Jenova20 (talk • contribs) 12:59, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

No I would NOT 'undo any edits', I have a right to remove edits if they do not meet WP guidelines. It has nothing to do with my personal views. I am following procedure. I am getting very sick of your bullying. You seem to have a personal campaign against me when I have done nothing wrong. 90.214.245.119 (talk) 14:33, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

It is incorrect to say there is no criticism of the Daily Hate within the article. The Editorial Stance and the Famous Stories sections contain criticism. Should you have content to add which satisfies WP:RS and WP:V then you have a couple of options: add the content and see what happens, or else add a section to the talk page stating that you would like to add the following text & reference, and have the discussion in advance of adding the text. Reading through your comments on the talk page, you stated that there was nothing on Stephen Gately & Jan Moir .. but there is, in Famous Stories. Meanwhile, I suggest you get yourself to the talkpage of WP:RS to discuss whether or not the Pink Paper is an RS. I liked Christian1985's comment: "The Pink Paper is just as biased as the Mail so it is not a realiable source", at least in so far as it suggests that the Daily Hate is no more or less an RS than the Pink Paper. I suspect the bottom line, though, is that if you want to add criticism and make it stick, you should look for better sources than an obviously partisan (though quite possibly correct) source such as the PP. --Tagishsimon (talk) 14:25, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Jenova20, will you please stop saying I am claiming 'ownership' because I am NOT. Stop making these ridiculous unfounded allegations against me or I will make a report to the Adminstrators. I am following WP policy. I do not resist anything negative, I have a right to question the reliability of sources and question edits. The article is fine as it is, it does not need negative information from biased and partisan sources. Policy has been followed. Please stop making these ridiculous accusations against me and Collect. 90.214.245.119 (talk) 14:31, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Quit threatening with administrators. All i have asked for is to add some information to the article with sources and rather than ask for better sources you have said no flatly, made assumptions about me and threatened me with administrators (constantly) I have reported you to an administrator because of this as you have a conflict of interest in keeping the page how you want, this is clear from the talk page of the Daily Mail article and your own. You have made clear today that your way of getting what you want is from threatening anyone who does not agree with you with the administrators (again this is clear from the talk pages). Jenova20 (talk) 15:48, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

I haven't 'threatened' you, I have simply issued a warning because you keep going around spreading lies and abuse about me when I have done nothing wrong. I have not threatened anyone, you are being very childish and very unreasonable because you can't get your way. All I have done is follow policy. I am not claiming ownership of the article so leave me alone. Christian1985 (talk) 17:59, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Ladies, can the bigger person here please not reply before we get into virtual fisticuffs on the Reference Desk? I don't know who is right, but I know this isn't the way to solve it. Prokhorovka (talk) 18:10, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

How much land would be freed if people stopped eating ice cream

How much land would be freed/reallocated if people stopped eating ice cream? A very rough estimate is enough for me. --85.77.119.92 (talk) 14:07, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

I'm baffled as to what correlation you're making between ice cream consumption and land use. Are you talking about the amount of dairy farms? The size of the people in question? The fields of sugar cane? --Mr.98 (talk) 14:44, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

The fields and such. I'd assume the area consumed by factories or wider seats is negligible in comparison to the total sum. --85.77.119.92 (talk) 15:09, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

I presume this is based on the well-known argument (popuarised in the 1970s by Frances Moore Lappe's Diet for a Small Planet) that vegetarians have less impact on the biosphere, and thus, by extension, vegans have even less. Would the people stop eating ice cream and start eating sorbet? Or another processed food? Or fresh fruit? Or nothing? Each of these will have different environmental effects. One source would be that of the Baskin-Robbins heir who disowned his family's ice-cream business. BrainyBabe (talk) 15:12, 24 January 2011 (UTC) PS That would be John Robbins (author) and Diet for a New America, "an exposé on connections between diet, physical health, animal cruelty, and environmentalism". BrainyBabe (talk) 15:15, 24 January 2011 (UTC) PPS We even have an article on Environmental vegetarianism, which gives lots of sources. It's not a direct answer, but it might help. BrainyBabe (talk) 15:21, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

If a US-only answer will do, it would be straightforward to visit the National Agricultural Statistics Service website and find out the number of gallons of milk and ice cream produced and how much acreage is under dairy cultivation. (IceCreamProduced / MilkProduced) * DairyAcreage should give you a ball park figure. --Sean 15:34, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Note that this calculation (and don't forget to do a similar one for the sugar/sugarcane, as the other major ingredient) will give you an answer for 'land reallocated', but not necessarily for 'land freed'. If ice cream disappears from the diet, what foodstuff(s) will replace it? (In other words, assuming that people don't choose to simply starve themselves of those ice cream calories, where will they make up the difference?) In the extreme case, if we assume that the people who were eating ice cream switch their purchasing to frozen yogurt then the effect on land use could be negligible. TenOfAllTrades(talk) 17:34, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Ice cream, as a high fat food, is likely to reduce life expectancy, and therefore reduce the ability of people to inflict damage on the environment. It should be possible to find an actuarial estimate of how fat consumption reduces life expectancy, and factor that in. --Colapeninsula (talk) 15:39, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Ice cream cheers people up (it would be tricky to cite this, I hope it's uncontroversial), and a happy mood enhances creativity, which is necessary for the development of technology which increases agricultural productivity. So eating ice cream reduces land use, to some unknown extent. 81.131.45.235 (talk) 20:08, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

Speculating either way on the effect of a single dessert foodstuff on population mortality strikes me as extremely fanciful. Ice cream is not central to the diets of most people. In most cases adding or removing it is unlikely to exhibit anything measurable in and of itself. --Mr.98 (talk) 20:27, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

And ditto on land use. If ice cream was switched off - banned by a government prohibition say - then the demand will switch in large part to the nearest legal substitute, the same fields will probably continue to produce the same sugar cane and dairy and will ship to the same factories which will be producing frozen yoghurt or cheese cake or cold sweetened milk or whatever the law still allows. --PalaceGuard008 (Talk) 13:58, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

People who scorn good-tasting stuff and eat nothing but vegetables can presumably live to be 100. And it's a fitting punishment. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 04:26, 27 January 2011 (UTC)

Belief about extra-terrestrials, particularly related to circular patterns and mushroom fairy rings

Several years ago the Skeptical Enquirer ( I think) published an article about people thinking that a "fairy ring" of mushrooms indicated a landing of extra-terrestrials. Is there any collection of such ironious beliefs? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 174.103.0.2 (talk) 20:35, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

You mean "erroneous". 92.15.2.19 (talk) 10:44, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

A Google search of 'fairy ring mushrooms ufo' gave a good many results. I'm not sure if any of those sites have any 'collections' of these type of beliefs, but it may be a starting point. --KägeTorä - (影虎) (TALK) 01:54, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

If reliably sourced this could be added to the article List of common misconceptions. Cuddlyable3 (talk) 09:53, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

Only if it can be truly shown to be common. HiLo48 (talk) 11:01, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

Travel Insurance - Not a request for medical or legal advice.

I am in the UK and recently needed to renew mine and my wife's travel insurance. Our previous insurer advised us that their medical declaration questions had been changed such that my well-managed Blood Pressure and Cholesterol would be excluded, as would any cover for my wife's well- managed arthritis and asthma - or any related claims that might arise from them. So we couldn't take the risk of a stroke or heart-attack or slip or trip occurring abroad. We are aware of the European Reciprocal Health Care system and we do carry our E111 Cards with us whenever we are abroad, but we couldn't take the risk of having to arrange our own repatriation, which isn't covered under that scheme. So I contacted several other insurance companies, some of which refused to insure us in any event or at any cost. But eventually we found one who will cover us and include all the listed medical conditions in return for a 25% surcharge on their normal premiums which we think is very fair. My question concerns why so many companies have vastly differing policy conditions when they are all competing for the same business. Also, whenever we go abroad, even to the USA or when cruising, we see loads of tourists who are clearly in much worse health than us, and we are now suspicious that many of them either do not declare their health conditions when purchasing travel insurance, or else they don't insure themselves at all. If that is so, does anyone here have any clue as to how much that bad practice goes on, or any links to sites that may be able to provide that information. Sorry about the length of this but thanks in anticipation of any responses. 78.146.34.244 (talk) 20:46, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

A quick Google search appears to confirm your suspicion that many people choose to travel uninsured, particularly older people who may find it difficult or expensive to find insurance for health reasons. This article and this one quote surveys that discuss numbers, although the scientific basis of the sampling is not certain. This article was also interesting. I'm amazed that people would risk travelling to places like the US, where healthcare is notoriously expensive, without adequate cover. Thinking of US tourists though, remember that many US residents who can afford a cruise holiday are likely already to have private health insurance either on their own account or provided by an employer - I'm not clued up about US health insurance, but I believe that some such policies do extend, or can be extended, to cover holidays too. Just as a personal observation, I think you are extremely responsible to take out such cover, even if it's loaded, and to declare your pre-existing conditions. My father was taken suddenly ill and then died following surgery while on holiday in Europe. He had valid insurance, and a traumatic situation was made much easier because someone else sorted out the cost of his emergency treatment and arranged the repatriation of his body to the UK for us. The alternative really does not bear thinking about, even seven years down the line. Karenjc 22:35, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

spencers orchard bradford on avon

Live in the Old Coach house in what was The Spencer Brothers Cider Orchard in Bradford on Avon in the 1800's, it abuts the Kennet and Avon Canal, so obviously had a purpose for the brewing company.

As it was an agricultural property we cannot find out any information at all. When we bought it was called number 18 Frome Road, Bradford on Avon.

It is next to The Maltings, which burnt down many years ago also owned by the Spencer Brothers, have searched your wonderful sites but to no avail, any suggestions or info

Kindest regards

Glo Maslen e-mail redacted—Preceding unsigned comment added by 94.195.58.37 (talk) 22:23, 24 January 2011 (UTC)

e-maill removed to prevent possible spamming.

Here [2]is the Land Registry site for Wiltshire, oddly at Weymouth in Dorset, but you should be able to get historical information about your property there, it may cost of course.

There are books published about how to research the history of your house, I suggest reading one of those. Your local archive office may be able to help. The Land Registry may have copies of old deeds that you could obtain for a fee, but they do not otherwise provide historical information. 92.28.241.187 (talk) 00:55, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

Many main libraries in the UK have a local history department with access to archives and librarians who will point you in the right direction. Alansplodge (talk) 09:23, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

Have you tried the local museum? They would almost certainly be happy to help, or at least point you in the right direction. Ghmyrtle (talk) 10:07, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

The Wiltshire archive office has a page here http://www.wshc.eu/about-wshc/archives.html which includes a link to a brief online guide to tracing the history of your house. If you bought your house in recent years then the Land Registry office (in Weymouth, as mentioned above) may have copies of the old deeds that they could send you copies of for a fee. Best to telephone them and ask them what they have. 92.15.2.19 (talk) 11:09, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

Agree with going to the county archives and local museum. Since your house is called Old Coach House, it might be just that. Could the road have been a stagecoach route? That's something you could ask librarians and archivists about. Also whether there are any archive materials for the brewery, and what is known about trade on the canal. Itsmejudith (talk) 11:16, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

That's possible, but don't be too disappointed if it turns out to be just the building in which some gentleman's coach was stored. Dbfirs 13:13, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

True, that's quite likely as well. Since it seems to be part of a cider farm and brewery, it could be where one or more of the the company;s horsedrawn vehicles were kept. I would start by researching the general history of Bradford upon Avon, its industry, and the canal. That should give leads for more detail information about the house. Post office directories should be in the public library; all businesses should be listed. Itsmejudith (talk) 16:48, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

You will, of course, be able to search online and find out who lived there from 1841 - 1911 because the Census records are online. Some of them are pay sites - the 1911 is definitely pay per view. Also look up "historical directories" in Google and you may well find the place listed in a local directory for the 19th century. --TammyMoet (talk) 14:15, 25 January 2011 (UTC)

You should be able to find a set of old directories and old maps at the Wiltshire archive office, and many other things as well. So spend a few hours there, and take sufficient identification with you so that they will let you in. 92.29.126.211 (talk) 16:56, 25 January 2011 (UTC)