User talk:YRG
Other Theories =)
[edit]Hi YRG-
Thank you for the compliment, I kind of thought what is happening now was going to happen last Spring but it took a little longer to shake out. As for any other theories of mine, I think things will get worse before they get better.
The bailout bill may eventually free up the system a little bit but this is going to take some time. In the meanwhile there are some serious problems here and in the rest of the world. If Iceland continues to have problems it will have a cascading effect throughout Europe, whose banks have higher levels of leverage than Lehman Brothers did.
As far as things go here in the US, expect the S&P index to go down to at least 800 before bottoming out and also things could get even worse next year if there is a bad Christmas retail season, job losses continue at the current pace and there is a new, larger wave of foreclosures next year.
I believe gold will be the best bet for the near term and I also expect the US dollar to be stronger versus the Euro but probably weaker against Asian currencies. At some point the equity market will bottom out. Economic recovery will start once jobs start getting created again, its as simple as that. I would say that a million new jobs need to be created to create new demand for the existing glut of houses on the market and to stabilize the mortgage backed assets that everyone is talking about. Beyond that I would look for OTC derivatives to become much more regulated, especially Credit Default Swaps. My personal feeling is that this "green industry" we keep hearing about will be the next engine for jobs. It would be smart of the next administration to undertake a massive infrastructure program which would help create a lot of new construction jobs. If Obama wins I think there will also be a new cap-and-trade system to deal with reducing carbon emissions and that will be the "next big thing" in finance. It will probably all end up with some sort of "bio bubble" 15 or 20 years from now but that's the way things go, haha. Take care!DavidMSA (talk) 07:48, 9 October 2008 (UTC)
GS
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