User talk:Doc James/Mortality

What are you doing here out of interest James? --Almaty (talk) 13:12, 16 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I feel like a stalker but also just found this and it's a very lucid analysis of mortality. Especially the section on my home Lombardy. First time I've seen this analysis on such a large pop. And fatalities will (unfortunately) certainly rise here. The cases in Milan (region capital - pop 1.4mln) are still rising despite the lockdown and it hasn't been effected as much as Bergamo or other cities so far so still a lot of room to "grow" unfortunately. Good source of data here: https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/ --Gtoffoletto (talk) 18:27, 17 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Also consider that ample undercounting of deaths is certain. Comparing deaths from 2020 to 2019 reveals a significant increase even removing confirmed covid deaths. See official data comparison by ISTAT here: https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/240401

Just pulled the data: 1 marzo 2020 - 4 aprile 2020 = 41329 deaths in confirmed areas in Italy vs 20454 for the same period in 2019

Bergamo: 4810 vs 755

Lombardy: 19824 vs 7248

Total COVID19 deaths in Lombardy as of 04/04: 8659 [1]

So we have 3917 unaccounted extra deaths or +45% COVID19 deaths

Not good...--Gtoffoletto (talk) 19:09, 17 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]

User:Almaty and User:Gtoffoletto I read a piece in the WSJ claiming that the IFR could be 0.06% so decided to run the numbers myself. People on twitter used to also compare the mortality to the seasonable flu when only 50 or so were dying a day. I wanted to update the numbers and now of course COVID is the leading cause of infectious disease death globally. This is all original research so not suitable for main space. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 03:15, 20 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Just FYI "from the ground" it feels like this is about right "1%: 10% of Lombardy or 1 million (19 out of 20 not diagnosed)". Totally anecdotal obviously but judging by my social circle in Milan I'd say that's the most probable scenario. --Gtoffoletto (talk) 22:11, 20 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]