User:Yuxiang Dou/COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China

Covid-19 was first detected in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019. The Chinese government took firm and decisive measures to stop the spread of the epidemic, and on January 23, Wuhan, China, was "closed", which was met with much skepticism and confusion and attributed by many countries, institutions and media to the "authoritarian" nature of the Chinese government. However, on April 8, 2021, Wuhan was reopened. In the subsequent period, the number of new confirmed cases in mainland China has remained low. As a result, China has one of the lowest numbers of Covid-19 cases in the world, providing the optimal solution for the global fight against Covid-19! The Chinese government has been widely recognized by the international community for its ability to organize and mobilize the fight against Covid-19 and has provided experience sharing and material support to other countries and regions around the world in the fight against Covid-19. With the mutation of the Covid-19 strain, new clusters of Covid-19 outbreaks have emerged in parts of mainland China. However, these outbreaks have always remained manageable. Although we do not know in what direction Covid-19 will evolve. But the efforts and victories of the Chinese government and people in the fight against Covid-19, and the remarkable contribution to the world's fight against Covid-19, cannot be ignored.

On April 8, 2020, Wuhan lifted the control measures for leaving the Wuhan channel and resumed external traffic in an orderly manner. Wuchang Station, Wuhan Station and other railway stations reopened the entry channel. Passengers entering the station to take the train need to verify the health code, measure body temperature, real name verification, and security checks, there are 276 trains from Wuhan area stations to Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Fuzhou and other places, is expected to transport more than 55,000 passengers leaving Han by train.

For the people living here, the quarantine did not disappear instantly, just like the ice block thawing, the great anti-epidemic spirit of "life first, a nation united, sacrificing life and death, respecting science, sharing fate" is burning behind the "lifting of quarantine", and it is turning into a bright torch to inspire people to face more challenges in the future.

Article Draft

Lead

The impact of the COVID-19 on the international trade between U.S. and China

Article body

The Covid-19 epidemic posed a huge impact on the global economy, and naturally, U.S.-China trade in goods also endured a greater impact. However, with the development of the epidemic, although the consequences of the tariff conflicts and export controls triggered by the Trump-era trade war are still in place, the trend of declining bilateral trade in goods between China and the U.S. has reversed, and the commodity structure has taken on new characteristics while maintaining the long-term basic pattern.

Customs statistics vary from country to country due to factors such as the time of goods in transit and certification of origin, but the difference between the customs statistics of China and the U.S. is generally small with an average of only 3.2% during the period from March 2019 to March 2021, the research node selected for this paper, and the Chinese foreign trade data are released one month earlier than the U.S. side. In this paper, China's exports to the U.S. refer to Chinese customs data, and U.S. imports from China are based on U.S. customs data, except as otherwise noted.

U.S.-China trade in goods remains large due to the strong economic complementarity and strong supply and demand capabilities of both sides. Comparing monthly data for each year before and after the March 2020 outbreak, it can be seen that both imports from China according to U.S. Customs statistics and exports to the U.S. according to Chinese Customs statistics remain above $30 billion in most months.

The Covid-19 epidemic has caused a "V" shape change in China's exports of goods to the US. In February 2020, China's exports to the U.S. were $10.49 billion, down 67.7% from January and down 53.9% from February 2019. According to U.S. Customs statistics, U.S. imports from China reached the bottom in March 2020 soon after a significant drop in February 2020, with imports in February and March down 31.2%, respectively, compared to the same period the previous year. The data show that despite the huge impact of the epidemic, along with the effective prevention and control of the epidemic in China and the acceleration of the resumption of work and production, the global advantages of Chinese manufacturing became more prominent, and coupled with the unprecedented strong fiscal stimulus and extremely accommodative monetary policy launched in the US, the disposable income of US residents kept growing, and Chinese exports to the US quickly rebounded and even exceeded the level before the epidemic outbreak.

In April 2020, China's exports to the U.S. amounted to $32.03 billion, rebounding to a scale of more than $30 billion. From May to August thereafter, China's exports to the U.S. continued to grow, at $37.31 billion, $39.77 billion, $43.66 billion and $44.69 billion, respectively. In comparison, the highest export value in the year prior to the outbreak was in June 2019, at $39.25 billion. However, Chinese exports to the U.S. have still not reached the highest point of this recovery. Spurred by demand in the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas and New Year markets, as well as the impact of vaccinations and the gradual lifting of home restrictions, China's exports to the U.S. surpassed the $50 billion mark in November 2020, reaching an unprecedented $51.92 billion. However, according to U.S. Customs statistics, the apex of this round of U.S. import recovery from China occurred in October and November 2020 at $44.83 billion and $44.86 billion, respectively, neither of which exceeded the high of $52.17 billion in October 2018 in the case of hoarding due to fears of continued escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States. Regardless of the statistical caliber, China's merchandise trade flows to the U.S. rebounded more strongly under the impact of the epidemic, with the right side of the "V" clearly higher than the left.

China's imports from the U.S. largely kept pace with the recovery in exports. monthly imports from the U.S. were below $10 billion from January to May 2020. in February, they fell to a low of $8.59 billion during the epidemic, but were 7.5% higher than in February 2019. in February 2020, China's bilateral trade with the U.S. reached a rare balance according to Chinese customs statistics, with China's surplus with the U.S. accounting for only 9.9% of total bilateral trade. only 9.9 percent of total bilateral trade. Since then, despite the rapid growth of China's exports to the U.S., the monthly surplus as a share of total bilateral trade has remained largely stable between 46% and 62%, with little change from the year prior to the outbreak, suggesting that the epidemic has not fundamentally altered the U.S.-China trade in goods relationship.

The share of exports to the U.S. in China's total exports was also affected by the epidemic, but also showed strong resilience. in February 2020, the share of China's exports to the U.S. fell to 13.1%, down 3.7 percentage points from a year earlier and reaching its lowest value since January 2017. Thereafter, the share of exports to the U.S. began to rebound rapidly, at 13.7 percent, 16.1 percent, and 18.1 percent from March to May, respectively, recovering and surpassing the pre-epidemic level. in November 2020, the share of China's exports to the U.S. reached 19.5 percent, close to the high of 20.7 percent since 2017. from January to March 2021, the share of exports to the U.S. was 16.8 percent, 17.7 percent, and 16%, all about 3 percentage points higher than the same period in 2020, with the accelerated economic recovery making the U.S. significantly more important as a destination country for China's merchandise exports.

The resilient performance of bilateral trade in goods between the U.S. and China in the first year of the epidemic once again demonstrates the depth of economic interdependence between the two countries and their mutual need in the global industrial chain. four or five months into 2021, both countries have maintained a relatively rapid economic recovery, with a recovery in market supply and demand capacity, a strong demand for business cooperation, and a need to release the purchasing power of consumers suppressed by the epidemic. The digital economy in China and the U.S. has seen rapid development under the epidemic, and the widespread use of new technologies, continuous innovation in business models, and the impact on market expectations and consumption habits will be long-term, making it difficult to restore the status quo ante even if the epidemic is brought under control. These changes not only give rise to the upgrading of traditional consumer goods and the development of the Internet of Things, but also provide greater room for innovation. At the same time, the sky-high amount of money put into the market by countries to combat the epidemic has led to rising inflationary pressure, which is transmitted from the international commodity market to the end consumer goods, and to a certain extent, has also played a role in promoting the growth of trade volume.

The Biden administration, while continuing the Trump administration's practice of throwing money at the market, with the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 bailout bill passed by Congress, continues to push for a massive infrastructure and economic recovery program of over $2 trillion, while also accelerating vaccinations with a view to creating conditions for a recovery in economic activity. in the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. economy rebounded after a sharp contraction, with adjusted domestic U.S. personal income rose 21.1% in March from a year earlier, setting the stage for an increase in consumer spending. Meanwhile, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index, which reflects the level of retail prices in the market, rose significantly to 0.5% in March, an increase of 150% from February; the PCE index, which excludes food and energy, rose to 0.4%, an increase of 300% from February. Compared to March 2020, the two PCE indexes mentioned above increased by 2.3 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, approaching the inflation target set by the U.S. monetary policy administration.

It is worth noting that the Biden administration has still not removed the tariffs imposed by Trump on imports from China, resulting in high levels of tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., significantly increasing the cost of cooperation between U.S. and Chinese companies and consumers' purchases of each other's goods. According to the Peterson Institute, the average U.S. tariff rate on imports from China currently stands at 19.3 percent, much higher than the 3.1 percent level prior to April 2018 and much higher than the current average U.S. tariff rate on countries other than China (3.0 percent). The abnormally high tariff rate and the Biden administration's still-uncertain attitude have led to confusion in market expectations and short-term investor decisions, which in turn have reduced the efficiency of the global supply chain, pushed up the cost of ensuring a secure and sustainable supply relationship, and caused a new impact on the economic and trade relations between countries, including China and the United States. The global chip supply shortage, which has been delayed for some time, is a typical example of the disruption of expectations and the disruption of the market balance between supply and demand due to factors such as U.S. government intervention.

Public health security and economic recovery in the post-epidemic period will require joint action by all parties. The position and dynamics of the global economy of China and the United States dictate that competition, not confrontation, is more in the interest of both sides. The two countries should continue to explore the establishment of more effective dialogue and coordination mechanisms to stabilize market expectations, reduce uncertainty in business decisions, establish rules, and promote innovative development. U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi and Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke with Vice Premier Liu He on May 27 and June 2, respectively, releasing certain positive signals.

References

International trade during the COVID-19 pandemic: Big shifts and uncertainty. OECD. (2022, March 10). Retrieved May 2, 2022, from https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/international-trade-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-big-shifts-and-uncertainty-d1131663/ Planalto, P. do. (2020). Coletiva de Imprensa sobre prevenção ao Covid-19 na saúde

indígena. https://wordpress.org/openverse/image/e401a475-e623-4ef0-9079-c72a7a84aa65. photograph, Palácio do Planalto. Retrieved May 1, 2022, from https://www.flickr.com/photos/51178866@N04/49989766262.