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Expanded table showing methods and breakdown by years

[edit]

Welcome. This table is under construction for eventual inclusion in the Great Leap Forward article. It will give estimates of famine deaths broken down by the year the deaths occurred and estimator, and give a brief description of the methods used to arrive at the estimates. If you have referenced information on any of the estimates in the table, or on estimates not yet included, please add it.

Great Leap Forward famine death estimates
Deaths
(millions) 		7/58-6/59 Deaths
(millions) 		7/59-6/60 Deaths
(millions) 		7/60-6/61 Deaths
(millions) 		7/61-6/62 Deaths
(millions) 		Author(s) Methods Year
23 Peng[1] Reported deaths from the vital statistics of 14 provinces (14.2 million) followed by adjustment to account for 10% under reporting and extrapolation to the remaining provinces assuming the same death rate.[1] 1987
27 Coale[2] Demographics: official 1953 and 1964 censuses and yearly (July to June) registered births and deaths (16 million), followed by adjustment (to 27 million) for undercounting, based on "data from other large recent surveys".[3] 1984
27 Rummel[4] Comparison of earlier estimates. Rummel uses Coale's estimate as "a most likely figure".[4] 1991
30 Banister[5] Demographics: official 1953 and 1964 censuses and yearly (July to June) registered births and deaths (15 million), the 1982 fertility survey, and adjustment (to 30 million) for under-reporting of deaths.[5] 1987
30 4.484 10.912 9.649 4.424[6] Ashton, Hill, Piazza, and Zeitz[7] Age distributions from 1953 and 1954 censuses, 1982 1:1000 fertility rate survey, yearly population registration figures (year end), yearly birth and death registrations (mid year).[7] 1984
30 Becker[8] Comparison of earlier estimates. Becker uses Banister's estimate as "the most reliable estimate we have".[8] 1996
32.5 Cao[9] Official local histories published by local party committees.[9] 2005
36 Yang[10] Demographics, information from provincial and central archives, interviews with survivors. 2008
38 Chang and Halliday[11] Chang and Halliday use death rates determined by “Chinese demographers” for the years 1957-1963, subtract the average of the pre-and post-Leap death rates (1957, 1962, and 1963) from the death rates of each of the years 1958-1961, and multiply each yearly excess death rate by the year’s population to determine excess deaths.[11] 2005
42 minimum Dikötter[12] Demographics, data from minutes of emergency committees, secret police reports, and public security investigations. 2010

ref name cite[13]

note: Non-famine democide also claimed millions of lives during the GLF, as it did in the years before and after. Dikotter makes the distinction between total "unnecessary" deaths and deaths caused by "torture" and people "summarily killed" (p.xii-xiii), whereas other estimates only calculate total excess deaths. Although democide, including labor camp deaths but not other famine deaths, was somewhat higher during the GLF than previously in the PRC, this was in part due to increased deadliness of labor camps during the famine (Rummel p251). Therefore the baseline death rate of other authors can be considered to include non-famine democide, leaving famine deaths as the primary contributor to the calculated excess deaths. However, the (non-famine) democide rate decreased after the GLF (Rummel p.208), so Coale's, Ashton's, Banister's, and Chang's famine death estimates, and by extension Becker's and Rummel's, may include non-famine democide as well.



  1. ^ a b Peng Xizhe (1987). Demographic Consequences of the Great Leap Forward in China's Provinces. Population and Development Review Vol.13 No.4 (Dec. 1987). pp.648-649.
  2. ^ Coale, Ansley (1984) Rapid Population Change in China, 1952-1982. National Academy Press. Washington, D.C. p.7.
  3. ^ Coale, Ansley (1984) Rapid Population Change in china, 1952-1982, p.1,7,73, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
  4. ^ a b Rummel, R.J., (1991) China’s Bloody Century, Transaction Publishers, p.248.
  5. ^ a b Banister, Judith (1987). China's Changing Population. Stanford University Press. pp.85,118.
  6. ^ Ashton, Hill, et. al. (1984) p.619.
  7. ^ a b Ashton, Hill, Piazza, and Zeitz (1984). Famine in China, 1958-61. Population and Development Review, Vol. 10, No. 4 (Dec., 1984) p.613.
  8. ^ a b Becker, Jasper (1998). Hungry Ghosts: Mao's Secret Famine. Holt Paperbacks. p.270,274. ISBN 0805056688.
  9. ^ a b Dikötter (2010) pp.324-325. Dikötter cites Cao Shuji (2005). Da Jihuang (1959-1961):nian de Zhongguo renkou (The Great Famine:China's Population in 1959-1961). Hong Kong. Shidai guoji chuban youxian gongsi. p.281
  10. ^ Yang, Jisheng (2008). Tombstone (Mu Bei - Zhong Guo Liu Shi Nian Dai Da Ji Huang Ji Shi). Cosmos Books (Tian Di Tu Shu), Hong Kong.
  11. ^ a b Chang, Jung and Halliday, Jon (2005) Mao: The Unknown Story, Knopf. p.438. ISBN 0679422714.
  12. ^ Dikötter, Frank. Mao's Great Famine: The History of China's Most Devastating Catastrophe, 1958-62. Walker & Company, 2010. p. xii ("at least 45 million people died unnecessarily") p.xiii ("at least 2.5 million were tortured to death or summarily killed") p.333 ("a minimum of 45 million excess deaths"). ISBN 0802777686.
  13. ^ "After the foundation of ‘New China,’ between 15 and 40 million people starved to death in the famine caused by the Great Leap Forward in the years between 1959 and 1961. … The number of people who died as a result of the famine remains a controversial issue. Based on Chinese population statistics that were published in the early 1980s, scholars estimate different figures. Peng Xizhe calculated 23 million deaths in 14 provinces (Peng Xizhe, “Demographic consequences of the Great Leap Forward in China’s provinces,” Population and Development Review, Vol. 13, No. 4 (1987), p. 649). Ansley Coale came to the conclusion that 16.5 million people died, and Basil Ashton counted 30 million deaths and 30 missing births (Basil Ashton and Kenneth Hill, “Famine in China, 1958–1961,” Population and Development Review, Vol. 10, No. 4 (1984), p. 614). Jasper Becker estimated 43 to 46 million casualties on the basis of an internal investigation of the Chinese government (Jasper Becker, Hungry Ghosts – China’s Secret Famine (London: Murray 1996), p. 272)." Wemheuer, Felix (2010). "Dealing with Responsibility for the Great Leap Famine in the People's Republic of China". The China Quarterly. 201: 176–194. doi:10.1017/S0305741009991123. Retrieved 2011-04-02.
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