As at this revision

Hypothetical voting intention under different Conservative leaders

In the run up to, and during, the 2022 Conservative Party leadership election, pollsters conducted multiple polls evaluating voting intention under certain potential candidates for leader of the Conservative Party.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
			Sunak as leader					Truss as leader					Mordaunt as leader
			Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
						Others	Lead				Others	Lead				Others	Lead
18 - 19 July 2022	FindOutNow/ Electoral Calculus	1,261	25%	37%	15%	14%^[a]	12%	25%	37%	16%	12%^[b]	12%	27%	36%	15%	12%^[c]	9%
Leadership contest begins.
14 - 16 January 2022	Yonder	2,075	36%	40%	9%	16%^[d]	4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15 - 22 December 2021	Opinium/The Guardian	1,902	34%	37%	-	-	3%	27%	43%	-	-	16%	-	-	-	-	-

The December poll also garnered the voting intention under three other scenarios:

no particular Conservative leader prompted - 32% for the Conservatives and 39% for Labour (a 7% Labour lead)
they prompted Boris Johnson as leader - 29% for the Conservatives and 41% for Labour (an 12% Labour lead)
they prompted Michael Gove as leader - 23% for the Conservatives and 41% for Labour (an 18% Labour lead).

The January Yonder poll also prompted for Johnson as leader but no numbers were published for under that scenario.

^ 4% for Reform, 10% for Greens
^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
^ 5% for SNP, 11% for Others

Red Wall only

One pollster conducted a poll garnering hypothetical voting intentions in Red Wall seats.^[a]

Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Conservative and Labour Party voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
			Johnson as leader			Sunak as leader			Truss as leader
			Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead
					Lead			Lead			Lead
19-20 January 2022	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,000	36%	48%	12%	38%	46%	8%	29%	51%	22%

Other potential scenarios were prompted (Gove as leader, Javid as leader, Raab as leader, Hunt as leader, Davis as leader, Patel as leader, and Zahawi as leader), and resulted in Labour leads of at least, and above, 20% in those scenarios. A scenario with Mordaunt as leader was not prompted.

^ Namely; Ashfield, Barrow and Furness, Bassetlaw, Birmingham Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Blyth Valley, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Bridgend, Burnley, Bury South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Delyn, Don Valley, Dudley North, Gedling, Great Grimsby, Heywood and Middleton, Hartlepool, Hyndburn, Leigh, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, North West Durham, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Redcar, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Sedgefield, Stoke-On-Trent Central, Stoke-On-Trent North, Vale Of Clwyd, Wakefield, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Workington, Wrexham, and Ynys Môn.

July 2022 - 2

Hypothetical voting intention under different Conservative leaders

During the 2022 Conservative Party leadership election, polls were conducted evaluating voting intention under certain potential candidates for leader of the Conservative Party.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
			Sunak as leader					Truss as leader					Mordaunt as leader
			Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
						Others	Lead				Others	Lead				Others	Lead
21 - 23 July 2022	Deltapoll^[a]	1,558	29%	41%	12%	18%	12%	31%	41%	11%	17%	10%	-	-	-	-	-
Penny Mordaunt is eliminated from the leadership contest on the fifth ballot.
18 - 19 July 2022	FindOutNow/ Electoral Calculus	1,261	25%	37%	15%	14%^[b]	12%	25%	37%	16%	12%^[c]	12%	27%	36%	15%	12%^[d]	9%

...

Hypothetical dependent on Conservative leader

Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Conservative and Labour Party voting intention
			Standard voting intention question		Johnson as leader		Sunak as leader		Truss as leader		Gove as leader
			Con	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Lab
15 - 22 December 2021	Opinium/The Guardian	1,902	32%	39%	29%	41%	34%	37%	27%	43%	23%	41%
15 - 22 December 2021	Opinium/The Guardian	1,902	Lab +7		Lab +12		Lab +3		Lab +16		Lab +18

Original redesigned based on feedback

Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Conservative and Labour Party voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
			No specific leader			Johnson as leader			Sunak as leader			Truss as leader			Gove as leader
			Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead
					Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead
14 - 16 January 2022	Yonder	2,075	Not released^[e]						36%	40%^[f]	4%	-	-	-	-	-	-
15 - 22 December 2021	Opinium/The Guardian	1,902	32%	39%	7%	29%	41%	12%	34%	37%	3%	27%	43%	16%	23%	41%	18%

^ Standard VI broke down: 31%/42%/10%/17% (worth including or not?)
^ 4% for Reform, 10% for Greens
^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
^ Voting intention under Boris Johnson remaining as leader was conducted, but figures were not stated in the article; "the numbers for Boris were on the floor" was the only comment made in that regard.
^ Also polled other parties; Liberal Democrats on 9%, SNP on 5% and Others on 11%

'Red Wall' only

Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Conservative and Labour Party voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
			No specific leader			Johnson as leader			Sunak as leader			Truss as leader			Gove as leader			Javid as leader			Raab as leader			Hunt as leader			Davis as leader			Patel as leader			Zahawi as leader
			Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead
					Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead			Lead
19-20 January 2022	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,000	—	—	—	36%	48%	12%	38%	46%	8%	29%	51%	22%	27%	52%	25%	31%	51%	20%	30%	51%	21%	27%	50%	23%	27%	51%	24%	26%	52%	26%	26%	53%	27%

Design 2

Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Conservative and Labour Party voting intention
Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Leader candidate	Con	Lab	Lead
15 - 22 December 2021	Opinium/The Guardian	1,902	None prompted	32%	39%	Lab +7
			Johnson as leader	29%	41%	Lab +12
			Sunak as leader	34%	37%	Lab +3
			Truss as leader	27%	43%	Lab +16
			Gove as leader	23%	41%	Lab +18

Potential third design

Bit like old seat prediction tables, as in the 2017 opinion polling article. With example of how further potential polling could fit in.

Leader candidate	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead	Con	Lab	Lead
	15 - 22 December 2021 Opinium/The Guardian 1,902 UK adults			xxxxx 2022 Opinium xxx UK adults			xxxxx 2022 Opinium xxx UK adults
None prompted	32%	39%	Lab +7	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx
Johnson as leader	29%	41%	Lab +12	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx
Sunak as leader	34%	37%	Lab +3	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx
Truss as leader	27%	43%	Lab +16	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx
Gove as leader	23%	41%	Lab +18	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx	xx%	xx%	Lab +xx

July 2022

Voting intention under each candidate

A poll was also conducted to garner the prospective voting intentions of the public for the various political parties under each leadership candidate in a general election.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Voting intention under each candidate
			Rishi Sunak					Penny Mordaunt					Liz Truss
			Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
						Others	Lead				Others	Lead				Others	Lead
18-19 July 2022	Electoral Calculus	1,261	25%	37%	15%	14%	12%	27%	36%	15%	12%	9%	25%	37%	16%	12%	12%

Alt

Date(s) conducted	Pollster/client	Sample size	Voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
			Sunak as leader					Truss as leader					Mordaunt as leader
			Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
						Others	Lead				Others	Lead				Others	Lead
18 - 19 July 2022	Electoral Calculus	1,261	25%	37%	15%	14%^[a]	12%	25%	37%	16%	12%^[b]	12%	27%	36%	15%	12%^[c]	9%
13 July 2022	Leadership contest begins.
14 - 16 January 2022	Yonder	2,075	36%	40%	9%	16%^[d]	4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15 - 22 December 2021	Opinium/The Guardian	1,902	34%	37%	-	-	3%	27%	43%	-	-	16%	-	-	-	-	-

^ 4% for Reform, 10% for Greens
^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
^ 5% for SNP, 11% for Others

[1] 4% for Reform, 10% for Greens

[2] 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens

[3] 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens

[4] 5% for SNP, 11% for Others

[5] Namely; Ashfield, Barrow and Furness, Bassetlaw, Birmingham Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Blyth Valley, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Bridgend, Burnley, Bury South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Delyn, Don Valley, Dudley North, Gedling, Great Grimsby, Heywood and Middleton, Hartlepool, Hyndburn, Leigh, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, North West Durham, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Redcar, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Sedgefield, Stoke-On-Trent Central, Stoke-On-Trent North, Vale Of Clwyd, Wakefield, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Workington, Wrexham, and Ynys Môn.

[6] Standard VI broke down: 31%/42%/10%/17% (worth including or not?)

[7] 4% for Reform, 10% for Greens

[8] 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens

[9] 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens

[10] Voting intention under Boris Johnson remaining as leader was conducted, but figures were not stated in the article; "the numbers for Boris were on the floor" was the only comment made in that regard.

[11] Also polled other parties; Liberal Democrats on 9%, SNP on 5% and Others on 11%

[12] 4% for Reform, 10% for Greens

[13] 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens

[14] 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens

[15] 5% for SNP, 11% for Others

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