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Lewis Turning Point is term used in economic development to describe a point at which surplus rural labor reaches a financial zero. This in turn typically causes urban wages to rise dramatically. Upon reaching the Lewis turning point, a country or state usually experiences a food shortages which leads to a rise in agricultural and unskilled industrial real wage.This usually continues until a labor surplus can be reached once again.Typically, reaching the Lewis Turning Point also causes an improvement in the wage bill and the functional distribution favoring labor.[1]However, in some historical cases such as in Japan between 1870 and 1920, agricultural labor productivity significantly increases to produce a labor surplus while real wages only rise gently.[1] After the Lewis turning point is reached, balanced growth policies are expected to be added shortly afterwards.[1] As China has recently reached the Lewis turning point, cheap labor in the country has rapidly declined and real agricultural wages have substantially increased.[2] However, other journals such as the China economic journal claim that the Lewis turning point was not yet passed in China and that this was comparable to the Japanese historical experience in regards to how the Lewis turning point affected the economy.[3] Despite its relatively large population, China has recently faced labor shortages and real wages have nearly doubled in the past decade, such rapidly rising wages in regards to unskilled work is a key indicator that a country has reached the Lewis turning point.[4]
- ^ a b c Gustav Ranis (August 2004). "ARTHUR LEWIS' CONTRIBUTION TO DEVELOPMENT THINKING AND POLICY" (PDF). ECONOMIC GROWTH CENTER. Yale University. Retrieved 15 January 2015.
- ^ MICHELLE DAMMON LOYALKA. "Chinese Labor, Cheap No More". nytimes. Retrieved 16 January 2015.
- ^ Minami, Ryoshin; Ma, Xinxin (23 September 2010). "The Lewis turning point of Chinese economy: Comparison with Japanese experience". China Economic Journal. 3 (2): 163–179. doi:10.1080/17538963.2010.511912.
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(help) - ^ Zhang, Xiaobo; Yang, Jin; Wang, Shenglin (December 2011). "China has reached the Lewis turning point". China Economic Review. 22 (4): 542–554. doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2011.07.002.