User:NateFlauto/Megatrend

Megatrends are transformation shifts that impact the progression of human society. Megatrends are the underlying forces which currently drive change in every aspect of our lives. Global megatrends are large-scale patterns or movements that have a major, long-lasting impact upon the planet and its inhabitants. The term 'megatrend' emerged in 1982 and was propagated by futurist author John Nesbit in Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives in order to describe the ongoing progression of various aspects within American society. Since the term's emergence the definition has adapted to be describe modern phenomena that have manifested within diverse sectors of human society as a result of our civilization's growth during the current globalizing age; megatrends are ultimately dominate the conceptualization of the future Megatrends are recognized by many disciplines of study for megatrends disrupt core aspects of contemporary civilization- the globalized economy, human culture/society , institutions, and the environment . The wide range of phenomena are seen in political science, sociology, psychology, ecology, demography, technological development. Notably, megatrends are inherently faulted due their ambiguity being cloaked in uncertainty of the long-term. Additionally, the unpredictable or black swan events (e.g September 11 attacks),can have a critical impact on the ongoing development of the present that disrupts the framing the future.

Megatrends

As megatrends are fundamentally broad in nature they must first be recognized before a focused response can be conglomerated in order to support or deter the megatrend's implications. Identification of a megatrend relies on foresight that stem from aforementioned areas of study where examiners can develop their conclusions from diverse methods of research that further the understanding of a contemporary phenomena. Identifying megatrends allow decision-makers to actively assess looming opportunity or danger in order to determine a pragmatic response in the present to eradicate a threat or take advantage of an opportunity. For example, the National Intelligence Council and the European Environment Agency have both published their assessments on megatrends to frame global trajectory.

Examples

Demographic Transition

By the year 2030 the Global population is expected to rise by more than a billion people. Additionally, people are living longer and having fewer children.

Age

The worlds's population is continuously growing and is constantly undergoing demographic change. In the context of megatrends, the world's population is growing older as a result of natural shifts in our popluation's age and because modern healthcare systems are keeping people alive longer. The trend towards an older population has been manifesting in OECD high income countries where the median age is projected to jump to 42.8 years in 2030 from the 2010 median of 37.9 years. These Advanced Industrialized Countries (AICs) are moving towards a 'mature' society, while older countries in Eastern Europe and East Asia are progressing towards 'post-maturity'. The transition towards an older population will disrupt aspects of our society; economics, governance, migration will be effected from the disruption. Post-mature countries will be economically challenged by slow aggregate GDP growth, an aging labor market participation, and a tax burden to support the aged population. The demographic shift will also have a social impact, for example the elderly consume less energy and consumer goods which effect CO2 emissions, additionally the shift will cause a change in human migration patterns.

Migration

Internal migration will increase as populations move towards urban areas, increased urbanization will effect the climate and strain on resources, it will progress public policy regarding movement, and the living conditions for the population. Immigration and migration are likely to be influenced by climate change, forcing migrations due to drought or weather induced famine. This will produce more migrants seeking work in well-off countries, disrupting the labor markets in the receiving countries, thankfully, countries receiving migrant workers will receive economic stimulus from the labor.

Food, Water, Energy Nexus

Global consumption of food, water and energy are interconnected as the demand and allocation of resources undergoes change, resource management is becoming a increasingly prevalent issue moving towards 2030. The emerging demographic transition effects demand and distribution of food and water which are coupled with energy consumption for the production/ dissemination of food products.The nexus needs to be both sustainable for our ecosystem and sustainable for our production system. Balance between food production and ecosystem are necessary for sustainability but are found to economically disadvantageous.

Food Demand

By 2030 the demand for food is expected to exceed a 35% raise, yet production is shrinking.

Environmental Shift

Anthropocene epoch average temperature is on the rise.

Climate change could reduce agricultural productivity by up to a third across large parts of Africa over the next 60 years. Globally, demand for water will increase by 40% and for energy by 50%.

Energy

Making the jump from mostly petroleum based energy to a diversification of energy sources.

Global Power Shift

Geopolitics are changing, Post Cold War/ 21st century US is no longer a true hegemon. NateFlauto (talk) 20:10, 29 October 2018 (UTC)

Diffusion of Power

The end of the Cold War started a transition of global power from being concentrated by United States Hegemony to a steady diffusion of power to other states.

Factors resulting in the diffusion of power

• Political-economic stagnation of Advanced Industrialized Countries (AICs)
  • Emerging markets grow rapidly and many rich countries age and grow slowly.
  • Emerging trade blocs such as BRICS, African Economic Community, and Association of Southeast Asian Nations are expanding their roll in the global economy.
  • Mega-Blocs such as African Continental Free Trade Area increasing regional unity through trade liberalization. A mega-bloc such as this increase inter-African trade to boost employment and economic growth which will lead to sustainable development, reduction of poverty and more dynamic competitive advantage.
  • Markets for information and technology are expanding, moving the global economy to the third super cycle;
    • Big data is becoming profitable.
    • Blockchain technology revolutionizing industries' and government's capabilities.
• Globalization
  • Regional- Global interaction
  • Expansion of UN security council permanent members to incorporate non-traditional leader states.
  • Amorphous communication networks favoring diplomatic channels and productive demeanor to influence policy on global issues.
• The decline of violent interstate conflicts.
  • Interstate problem solving is becoming influenced based in multifaceted diplomatic networks between states (and non states).
  • Presence of international trade relations have secured peaceful relationships.

20:10, 29 October 2018 (UTC)

Social Mobilization

Transforming the conditions of disenfranchised persons.

Destructive Potential

Humanity could destroy itself, yet there is a decline of violence and interstate warring