Forecast of Libya from 6th October 2011

Assumption: Split amongst NTC fighters (Spilt most extreme in Tripoli)

Split into two groups on religious and geographic grounds, an extreme and less extreme
Split between Salafists (from Misrata) and less extreme Maliki School (Libyan Muslim Brotherhood) backed by fighters from the north (Zintan).
- Abdul Hakim Balhadj (Libyan Muslim Brotherhood) sides on Maliki (less extreme) side
- Ali Salabi sides with more extreme faction
Libyan Muslim Brotherhood have more support from NTC and denounce violence against the NTC
Misratah Salafists also denounce violence against the NTC
However “Grass roots” terrorism (acts by individuals without the control or support of the leadership of any of the parties) starts up
- Starts in Tripoli
- Targeting of NTC, rather than western, assets
- Foreign Volunteers (e.g. from AQIM) also to take part
- One of the effects of this is that the abuse of suspected mercenaries continues
NTC energies spent on negotiations with the parties over definition of what a “Good” Islamic state is with “Moderate” Sharia Law using “Islamic Principles”, rather than with the West
- However, the NTC remain keen for the new state to keep the trust of the West
- The West’s views against Sharia law harden…
- BUT despite this the West still steers clear of actually of officially demanding the end of Sharia law, or bargaining about the “Sharia Law” card
Brotherhood invited to work alongside the NTC
Salafists continue to refuse to disband Militias before war is won
There is an agreement to integrate militias into security apparatus (as in Afghanistan)
- Salafist miltias integrated
- Libyan Muslim Brotherhood forces integrated
The West accuses the NTC of making decisions that it has no authority to make (such as the decision to implement Sharia Law)
There is an eventual agreement that Sharia law will be decided on a local basis, via referenda etc. after or alongside the elections This will means that some geographical areas inside Libya may have a different interpretation of Sharia law to others (or indeed not have Sharia Law at all)
The West formally asks NTC to recognize Israel
- The NTC refuses
Attitudes towards revenge on Gaddafi and his allies soften
The NTC sets up of a “Truth and Reconciliation” committee
- Looking at things in the Gaddafi era only
- Under UN supervision
- With no punishment for Gaddafi era crimes
The NTC draws up detailed time line for elections
- Under UN supervision
Salafists are brought into negotiations
- And feel less likely to endorse violent means to achieve their ends as they are involved
Bani Walid not attacked
- Peace declared whilst Bani Walid still holds out
NATO gives support to the NTC (Misratah Salafist) fighters attempting to capture Sirte
- With the agreement of the UN
- The support in the orm of Close Air Support
Sirte falls
- Before Bani Walid
UK sends trade delegation
- Aid “linked to” success of this trade delegation