User:Mike Young/Sandbox12
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Libya Decision Workshop: Forecasts from session at conference of Wargamers 09/07/2011
[edit]Future politics of Libya: Forecast of what will happen in the next few weeks (before Sept 2011)
[edit]- Gaddafi does not leave the country
- Gaddafi offers to go into internal exile
- Gaddafi goes to goto south of the country / around his home town
- Gaddaffi stays in luxurious surroundings rather than in prison
- Option of internal exile accepted by the NTC
- Gaddafi to have no political power
- Fewer demands that Gaddafi go to the Hague
- Berbers gain control of Zuwarah
- Cease fire declared
- Gaddafi loses effective control of Tripoli with minimal fighting
- NTC eastern forces do not "capture Tripoli"
- Berber forces do not "capture Tripoli"
- Power vacuum in Tripolitania immediately after cease fire.
- Allies cease to supply the Berbers militarily
- Demands by Berbers and Tripoli for more regional autonomy
- No ground intervention by UN forces
- Demand by Fezzan for more regional autonomy
- Some demands met by NTC, but not others
- UN peacekeepers deployed in Libya
- These peackeepers from Muslim or African Nations
- First deployed to Tripoli
- Then deployed to Misrata
- Misrata distances itself from IRC once under UN control
- Oil to be treated as a national rather than regional asset.
- Fezzan area remains loyal to Gaddafi
- NCT become less Cyrancinia focussed
- Powerful Representative from Fezzan Area invited onto NTC
- Powerful Representative of Berbers invited onto NTC
- Powerful Representative of Tripoli Liberals invited onto NTC
- General Abdul Fatah Younis removed from NTC
- Jamaal remains in NTC
- Jabil remains in NTC
- Separate Political Party formed by Tripoli Liberals
- Separate Political Party formed by Berbers
- Berber and Tripoli Liberal parties form coalition
- Berber war hero leads his party
- Freedom of press announced by National Transitional Council
- NTC attempts to control administration of Tripoli (eg pay teachers, doctors)
- NTC becomes de facto government in Tripoli despite some internal opposition
- Government based on Islamic Principles remains.
NULL case forecast
[edit](This is NOT our forecast of the outcome, but rather the "Null case" which the accuracy of our forecasts should be compared to. It assumes nothing happens)
[edit]- Gaddafi does not leave the country
- Gaddafi does not go into internal exile
- If he does go then he is not accepted by the NTC
- Demands that Gaddafi goto the Hague for war crimes remain
- Berbers do not goin control of Zewarah
- No cease fire
- Allies continue to provide air support
- Allies continue to fly in supply to Berbers
- Gaddafi remains in control of Tripoli
- No UN peacekeepers deployed in Libya
- if deployed not from anywhere in particular
- Fezzan area remains loyal to Gaddafi
- NCT remains just as Cyrancinia focussed as it is now
- Power in NCT remains effectively unchanged
- Jamaal remains in NTC
- Jabil remains in NTC
- No new political parties formed by Tripoli Liberals
- No new political parties formed by Berbers
- No freedom of press announcement by NTC
- NCT does nothing about control of administration of Tripoli
- Government based on Islamic Principles remains