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Libya Decision Workshop: Forecasts from session at conference of Wargamers 09/07/2011

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Future politics of Libya: Forecast of what will happen in the next few weeks (before Sept 2011)

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  • Gaddafi does not leave the country
  • Gaddafi offers to go into internal exile
    • Gaddafi goes to goto south of the country / around his home town
    • Gaddaffi stays in luxurious surroundings rather than in prison
    • Option of internal exile accepted by the NTC
    • Gaddafi to have no political power
  • Fewer demands that Gaddafi go to the Hague
  • Berbers gain control of Zuwarah
  • Cease fire declared
    • Gaddafi loses effective control of Tripoli with minimal fighting
    • NTC eastern forces do not "capture Tripoli"
    • Berber forces do not "capture Tripoli"
    • Power vacuum in Tripolitania immediately after cease fire.
    • Allies cease to supply the Berbers militarily
  • Demands by Berbers and Tripoli for more regional autonomy
  • No ground intervention by UN forces
  • Demand by Fezzan for more regional autonomy
    • Some demands met by NTC, but not others
  • UN peacekeepers deployed in Libya
    • These peackeepers from Muslim or African Nations
    • First deployed to Tripoli
    • Then deployed to Misrata
      • Misrata distances itself from IRC once under UN control
  • Oil to be treated as a national rather than regional asset.
  • Fezzan area remains loyal to Gaddafi
  • NCT become less Cyrancinia focussed
    • Powerful Representative from Fezzan Area invited onto NTC
    • Powerful Representative of Berbers invited onto NTC
    • Powerful Representative of Tripoli Liberals invited onto NTC
    • General Abdul Fatah Younis removed from NTC
  • Jamaal remains in NTC
  • Jabil remains in NTC
  • Separate Political Party formed by Tripoli Liberals
  • Separate Political Party formed by Berbers
    • Berber and Tripoli Liberal parties form coalition
    • Berber war hero leads his party
  • Freedom of press announced by National Transitional Council
  • NTC attempts to control administration of Tripoli (eg pay teachers, doctors)
  • NTC becomes de facto government in Tripoli despite some internal opposition
  • Government based on Islamic Principles remains.

NULL case forecast

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(This is NOT our forecast of the outcome, but rather the "Null case" which the accuracy of our forecasts should be compared to. It assumes nothing happens)

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  • Gaddafi does not leave the country
  • Gaddafi does not go into internal exile
    • If he does go then he is not accepted by the NTC
  • Demands that Gaddafi goto the Hague for war crimes remain
  • Berbers do not goin control of Zewarah
  • No cease fire
    • Allies continue to provide air support
    • Allies continue to fly in supply to Berbers
  • Gaddafi remains in control of Tripoli
  • No UN peacekeepers deployed in Libya
    • if deployed not from anywhere in particular
  • Fezzan area remains loyal to Gaddafi
  • NCT remains just as Cyrancinia focussed as it is now
  • Power in NCT remains effectively unchanged
  • Jamaal remains in NTC
  • Jabil remains in NTC
  • No new political parties formed by Tripoli Liberals
  • No new political parties formed by Berbers
  • No freedom of press announcement by NTC
  • NCT does nothing about control of administration of Tripoli
  • Government based on Islamic Principles remains