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[For page Horizontal Escalation]

Horizontal Escalation is the process by which conflicts of including diplomatic, economic, informational, and military issue are heightened through geographical expansion. This also includes international intervention as well as the geographical widening of combat operations. Horizontal escalation is a direct contrast to vertical escalation which employs types of weapons not previously used in the conflict. That type of escalation also allows attacking new types of targets. 

The word escalation was used for a variety of different facets, but it was not until 1973 that the American Heritage Dictionary related the term to military events of increasing scope and intensity.  

During the Cold War, the risks of using escalation were much broader and more diverse. Counterinsurgency and counter-terrorist operations were very prone to using horizontal escalation as a means of defense. Those two types of warfare are more likely to lead to horizontal escalation because the area of conflict widens in efforts to eliminate enemy holdings or to punish other parties that support their enemy.  

Theorists

In the early days of the war, commanders did not question the mechanics of escalation, but they lacked a concrete model to follow.

Herman Kahn

It was not until 1965 when Herman Kahn created a theory called the escalation ladder. The categories of horizontal escalation can also be applied to a similar theory called, the vertical dimension of escalation. This theory has 3 categories: 

Compound and Widen Escalation

These two levels include having the conflict expand out of the general space and increasing the space for operations in the local area. 

Increase Intensity

This level includes logistical attacks, usage of nuclear weapons, and attacking cities.  

Kahn’s model was influential because it was the first type of model for escalation. 

Ole Holsti

Ole Holsti studied escalation from a psychological point of view. His view of escalation dealt with elements of communication and the stresses created by that conflict. He found the following number of things happened: (1) that as stress increased so did the volume, (2) as stress increased the channels of communication are either increased or new forms of communicating are found.  Alternatives are also a form of escalation Holsti studied and found that it could be broken down into 3 categories: choice, closed, and necessity. 

Choice

The chosen alternative was selected on merit above other viable alternatives

Closed

The specific alternative is not viable.

Necessity

This alternative is the escalation operative, as the decision is made due to the perception that there are no other available options. The alternative is an outcome of the issues dealing with the crisis and dealing with the amount of time the cause of stress has been around.

Time is the main component to most of Holsti’s studies dealing with this issue and found the following. As the pressure of time increases so does the seeking of alternatives. If the search is not producing many results, then the amount of alternative considered is greatly diminished. When this happens there is a greater likelihood that a “false alarm will be converted to war”

Richard Smoke

Was able to expand upon many of the existing concepts in his book entitled War: Controlling Escalation. Smoke found that escalation was the product of crossing salient lines either during a crisis or afterward. He noted that “as means are increased to achieve the original objective (end), so does the perceived value of that objective also rise” from there he was able to come up with key themes. Smoke found that the fear was the only way to control escalation. In his book, he included images of escalation including:

Actor Images

Which is a unilateral act and includes decision cycles that control conflict. When the opposing side takes action, the conflict does not rise.

Phenomenal Image

Which naturally occurs when wars expand and is found to be the most common.

Reciprocal Escalation

Is one of two subsections found in phenomenal images and happens when an escalatory action or plan is planned and executed only once.

Cyclical-sequence

Is one of two subsections found in phenomenal images and is where multiple escalation actions or plans are carried out. This is referred to as action-response cycles. 

Examples

Due to an unclear division between different types of escalation, some attacks can be classified as horizontal, vertical, or both.  

Actor Image

• (1990-1991), The Gulf War, otherwise known as 'Operation Desert Storm'

Horizontal

• In 1942, the United States dropped bombs on both Vietnam during the Operation Rolling Thunder mission and again during the Doolittle Raid in Japan. When the United States dropped those bombs, they were able to cut their enemy off from their homeland. 
• In 1980, the Regan administration entertained the idea of using horizontal escalation against the Western Europe when they threatened the integrity of the Warsaw Pact. By using horizontal escalation, they would avoid using nuclear weapons-- a means of vertical escalation. 

• In 1991, with the launching of Iraqi Scud missiles into Israel. This is devised to bait the Israelis to go to war with them, however, the United States ensured that Israel would not join the war. The conflict ended without the need of an escalatory response.

See Also

• Conflict Escalation