User:Lakisha.simon/Escalation ladder

Escalation Ladder is a theory created by Herman Kahn during the Cold War.

In total, this ladder has forty-four rungs, and is broken down into seven units with varying numbers of rungs inside. 

Kahn’s Escalation ladder or otherwise known as “A Generalized (or Abstract) Scenario is as followed:

It would start with a disagreement, for example, the Cold War.

Sub-crisis Maneuvering (Don’t Rock the Boat Threshold)

Solemn and Formal Declarations

1. • May be in the form of legislative, formal executive announcements, or diplomatic notes. This is a pre-emptive escalation tactic. 

Political, Economic, and Diplomatic Gestures

1. • Unfair, unfriendly, and discourteous acts are carried out against the opponent to punish or convey messages. If the acts become hostile, they are known are “Retortions”.

Ostensible Crisis

1. • One or both parties set the language of the crisis, if not resolved the ladder is climbed. 

Traditional Crises (Nuclear War Is Unthinkable Threshold) 

Dramatic Military Confrontations 

1. •  A direct confrontation

Harassing Acts of Violence 

1. • Using typically illegal acts of violence to exhaust or confuse the enemy and their allies.

 “Legal” Harassment- Retortions

1. •  Harassing the opponent’s property, or people legally. The harassment can be extremely provocative or hostile. 

Significant Mobilization

1. • Shows the other side that they are willing to call more forces to the conflict if needed.

Show of For

1. • One or both sides make it known that they can and will show force if needed.

Hardening of Positions—Confrontation of Wills

1. • When the situation gets coercive, deliberate stake increases happen. For example, joining issues to make it harder for the other side to believe that they cannot back down.

Intense Crises (No Nuclear Use Threshold) 

Intense Crises happens when a large number of people believe nuclear war is upon them, though no weapons are deployed. 

“Justifiable” Counterforce Attack

• Used to degrade the military morale or capability of the opponent.

Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force

• Using weapons that do no obvious damage, but is deemed reckless. It is used to punish the enemy for a previous act or pre-emptively for one that has not happened yet.  

Bizarre Crises (Central Sanctuary Threshold)

Evacuation (Approximately 70 percent)

• The situation is very close to a large-scale war.

Local Nuclear War- Exemplary

• A warning to the opponent that nuclear force can be used. 

Exemplary Central Attacks (Central War Threshold)

Demonstration Attack on Zone of Interior

• Bombing of harmless areas that does dramatic and unmistakable damage to the topography

Military Central Wars (City Targeting Threshold)

Counterforce-with-avoidance attack

• This would involve attacking anything the enemy has without causing major collateral damage to civilians.
  • For examples, the Soviets would need to avoid major naval bases and instead attack a smaller city.

Civilian Central Wars

Spasm or insensate War

• To try and get the other side to stop due to the other side being out of weapons.

Augmented Disarming Attack

• A bonus attack for an increase in collateral counter value damage

Counter value Salvo

• Shooting a large number of missiles at civilian targets

Slow-Motion Counter City War 

The ladder would end with the aftermath of the conflict

See also

• Herman Kahn
• Horizontal Escalation

Category:Conflict (process)