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Aileen/Sebastian

[edit]

In Netherlands KNMI issued orange warnings for coastal provinces.[1] In Wadden Sea area wind gusts of 110 to 120 km, IJmuiden a gust 126 kilometres per hour (78 mph)recorded.[1] In Netherlands transport disruption two people were injured by falling trees.[1]

Aileen strongest Europe https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/908059475197784064 https://twitter.com/larslowinski/status/908095771156910085

The storm is known as "Sebastian" in Germany.[2] 3 deaths in Germany.[3] 161 kilometres per hour (100 mph) Borkum.[4]

In Poland gusts in Szczecin reached 86 kilometres per hour (53 mph) and in Wroclaw 72 kilometres per hour (45 mph).[3]


Unsually windy September in Denmark, though not enough to trigger their naming system,[5] was first storm in September since 1990 in the country.[6] Strongest gust to affect the country was reported from Gedser at 32.5 metres per second (73 mph), just below the level of hurricane strength, with average wind maxima of 25.4 metres per second (57 mph) reported on Rømø in the Wadden Sea.[7] ranked as the lowest, regional category 1 storm in Denmark equivalent to storms Helga(da wiki) and Dagmar(da wiki) of 2015 in Denmark.[8]

http://www.rms.com/current-catastrophes/CatSummary?event_id=3779574

Earliest storm since Ex-Katia 2011, other early season storms such as Ex-Charlie in August 1986 another ex-hurricane. early storms were recorded in August 1979 (Fastnet disaster), September 1967 and August 1957. September storm unusual.[9]

Xavier

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"Sturmtief" http://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2017/10/6.html

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/54563166-xavier-2e-tempete-automnale-sur-l-europe-du-nord

Xavier worse than Herewart http://www.weer.nl/nieuws/detail/2017-10-28-noordwesterstorm/

Ex-Ophelia

[edit]

Ophelia is not even the first tropical system to morph into a post-tropical storm and affect the region this year. Gert brought wet and windy weather to the western and northern parts of Britain in August. Coincidentally, previous storms named Ophelia in 2011 and 2005 also impacted the region as post-tropical storms. historical records dating back to 1851 and, conservatively, identified 45 onetime tropical systems that passed over or very close to the region as post-tropical storms. This amounts to one every 3.5 years or so. (Due to limitations in the hurricane database, which hasn’t always included the track of storms after they lose tropical characteristics, we may be missing some.) [10]

The Met Office said Ophelia’s 80mph gusts are forecast to make it Britain’s strongest ex-tropical storm since September 2011’s Hurricane Katia. Gusts over 81mph would make Ophelia Britain’s strongest ex-hurricane since Hurricane Lili’s 92mph gusts in 1996, said AccuWeather, the world’s second biggest commercial forecaster. The Met Office’s data also indicates gusts over 81mph would make Ophelia Britain’s strongest ex-hurricane for 21 years, although Met Office weathermen were checking records to confirm this.Gusts over 81mph would make Ophelia Britain’s strongest ex-hurricane since Hurricane Lili’s 92mph gusts in 1996[11]

190.756 kt Fastnet http://www.irishexaminer.com/video/news/ophelia-breaks-no-records-but-spares-no-county-461048.html

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2011/09/09/how-often-do-the-remains-of-hurricanes-affect-the-uk/

Extra-tropical on evening of 15 October https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/919650019078299648 210000 stromloss https://www.rte.ie/news/post/102631822/

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hurricane-ophelia/roof-of-cork-citys-football-stadium-blows-off-as-ophelia-batters-south-of-ireland-36231672.html?utm_content=buffera68a6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/ex-hurricane-ophelia-impacts-the-uk

Ophelia's atypical development, (becoming a Category 3 hurricane further northeast than any hurricane in the historical record) was so unusual that some of the graphical displays used by the US National Hurricane Center were unable to show all the forecasts. The wind field predictions of the storm were thus truncated north of 60° latitude and east of 0° longitude (the Prime Meridian) as the NHC had not considered the possibility of an Atlantic hurricane or its identifiable remnants being located so far to the northeast.[12]https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/17/16489074/hurricane-ophelia-post-tropical-storm-wind-speeds-nhc-noaa-graphic

unprecedented 385,000 customers were cut off in the State with a further 52,000 in Northern Ireland.https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/british-repair-crews-to-help-esb-restore-power-after-ophelia-1.3259944

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/920333590067589121

Next

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yellow warning issued met office 18 October

Herwart

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northwesterly current between low "GRISCHA", whose core is found around noon over the Gulf of Bothnia,[13] https://insurancemarinenews.com/insurance-marine-news/storm-herwart-kills-least-six/ https://insurancemarinenews.com/insurance-marine-news/several-vessels-impacted-storm-herwart/ http://maritimebulletin.net/2017/10/29/storm-herwart-damaged-5-freighters-in-northern-germany/

https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2017/10/29.html The 225-metre long Glory Amsterdam was ripped from its moorings by high winds. The 22 crew members still on board are unharmed,[14]

At least five cargo vessels were adversely affected by Herwart. The bulk carrier Glory Amsterdam ran aground near to the German island of Langeoog on the evening of 29 October https://insurancemarinenews.com/insurance-marine-news/several-vessels-impacted-storm-herwart/


Ingolf cappelen Dk-https://www.kristeligt-dagblad.dk/bagsiden/en-storm-i-et-glas-vand

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/energie/article170189224/Strompreis-Kollaps-durch-Herwart-offenbart-Wahnsinn-der-Energiewende.html https://www.thegwpf.com/stormy-wind-price-collapse-reveals-madness-of-germanys-green-energy-transition/ with eng trans. Herwart new German wind power generation record to Germany, also a renewable energy share of over 74 percent of power generation.[15]


A storm like "Herwart" reveals a design flaw of the energy transition that critics have long pointed out. The so-called renewable energy can not provide a base load. When a storm suddenly so much energy is available that the price of electricity falls. However, that does not mean that electricity will become cheaper for the end user - quite the contrary. You even have to pay extra.

European_Energy_Exchange

Deutsche Bahn completely cancelled rail services in seven German states on Sunday after storm Herwart blasted across much of the country, tearing down trees and killing several people.[14]

A 63-year-old camper in Lower Saxony was the first casualty of the storm when she was caught out by flooding near the North Sea coast and drowned.[14]

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a motorboat with three holidaymakers inside capsized on rough seas. Two of the passengers later died in hospital, a third is still missing and rescue operations are continuing.[14]

BBC pidgin service (incorrectly) called it tropical storm Herwart.[16]

Numa

[edit]

Proposed designation of Numa as a medicane was criticised by some.[17] http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/55830924-contraste-en-mediterranee http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/home/actualite/meteosuisse-blog/meteosuisse-blog.subpage.html/fr/data/blogs/2017/11/medicane.html https://www.tiempo.com/noticias/actualidad/-un-huracan-en-el-mediterraneo-.html

Météo France tweeted that Numa had attained the status of a subtropical Mediterranean depression on the afternoon of 17 November.[18]

https://twitter.com/meteofrance/status/931541033514651648

Ylva

[edit]

https://web.archive.org/web/20171123122748/https://www.yr.no/spesialvarsel/ekstrem.html Extreme weather Ylva was named by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute on the 22 November to affect the northern Norwegian counties of Nordland and Troms. Ylva was predicted to be the most severe windstorm to affect the area since 2006.[19]

Caroline

[edit]

16000[20]

Ana

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https://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/Images/ImageLibrary/DAT_3759905.html

https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/939881484541943808 957 hPa Saint Nazaire. 161 kilometres per hour (100 mph) à Saint-Clément-des-Baleines, Charente-Maritime. [21] https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/34-departments-on-alert-as-Storm-Ana-strikes 956 hPa-https://twitter.com/lachainemeteo/status/940149729723342848

low pressure for france #Ana s'est creusée à 956 hPa. Pression minimale des tempêtes les plus puissantes en France depuis 1999. 1 - #Lothar : (26 décembre 1999) : 960 hPa 2 - #Martin : (27 décembre 1999) : 963 hPa 3 - #Klauss : (25 janvier 2009 ) : 965 hPa 4 - #Xynthia : (28 février 2010 ) : 968 hPa-https://twitter.com/lachainemeteo/status/940106646868471808 probably lowest since February 1989.

La tempête Ana s'est creusée à 956 hPahttp://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2017-12-11-22h04/tempete-ana---bilan-et-dernier-point-45752.php

https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2017/12/12.html http://www.ipma.pt/pt/media/noticias/news.detail.jsp?f=/pt/media/noticias/textos/tempestade-ana.html

Bruno

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-42492209 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42490947 " moderate storm as it occurs four to five times a year". http://www.sudouest.fr/2017/12/27/tempete-bruno-des-rafales-a-pres-de-130-km-h-sur-le-littoral-atlantique-4066837-6110.php

On the 26–27 December Météo France described the storm moderate storm which would be expected four to five times a year. Two fatalities were reported in Spain.[22] http://www.ipma.pt/pt/media/noticias/news.detail.jsp?f=/pt/media/noticias/textos/tempestade-ana.html

stormy period, cold north america, storm endhttps://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2018/1/1.html

FrEsPt

[edit]

https://www.tiempo.com/ram/386512/hacia-esquema-unificado-nombres-borrascas-intensas-europa/ MetAreas WMO -http://weather.gmdss.org/metareas.html

Eleanor

[edit]
Eleanor Burglind
Satellite animation of Eleanor's lifetime over Western Europe (Seviri RGB Airmass view)
Date of impact2–4 January 2018
Maximum wind gustkm/h
Lowest pressure967hPa
Power outagesUnconfirmed
DamageUnconfirmed

https://www.flickr.com/photos/eumetsat/27692721179/ http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/home/aktuell/meteoschweiz-blog/meteoschweiz-blog.subpage.html/de/data/blogs/2018/1/starker-wintersturm-fegt-ueber-die-schweiz-hinweg.html http://www.dw.com/en/storm-eleanor-also-known-as-burglind-batters-europe/a-42018400 https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0104/931059-dunbeg-fort-kerry/ 969 hPa-http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/57448719-retour-sur-la-tempete-eleanor-des-2-et-3-janvier http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/home.subpage.html/de/data/blogs/2018/1/starker-wintersturm-fegt-ueber-die-schweiz-hinweg.html http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/home.subpage.html/de/data/blogs/2018/1/lothar-deutlich-staerker-als-burglind.html https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/us-east-coast-blitzed-fast-moving-high-impact-winter-storm http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2018/01/04/windstorm-burglind-eleanor-could-cause-eur500m-loss-actuaries/

Meteorological history

[edit]

developed as a secondary cyclone to the low "Alja" to the west of Ireland. Meteofrance low pressure value of 969 hPa, though reports of 967 hPa at Boulmer 2 am on the 3 January. The ECMWF operational forecast model of maximum winds featured a narrow corridor of strong winds crossing Ireland and Northern Ireland, which they suggest could be a feature of a Sting jet in Eleanor.[23]


possibility of an Atmospheric river high rainfall to Germany. http://www.rms.com/blog/2018/01/17/eleanorburglind-another-near-miss-for-europe/?utm_content=buffer06057&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Storm surge

[edit]

storm surge flooding to Galway, coincided with full moon high tides. also Channel islands. Dutch closed all 5 storm surge barriers https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-storm/dutch-close-sea-barriers-cancel-flights-as-storm-rages-idUSKBN1ES0LS maeslantkering, oosterscheldekering, balgstuwramspol, hollandscheijsselkering, hartelkering.

partially collapsed harbour wall Portreath, Cornwall.[24]

Impact

[edit]

Swiss train nr Lenk derailed [25]

http://www.air-worldwide.com/Press-Releases/AIR-Worldwide-Estimates-Insured-Losses-from-Winter-Storm-Eleanor/Burglind-Will-Be-Between-EUR-1-1-Billion-and-EUR-1-6-Billion/ http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2018/01/11/air-estimates-storm-burglind-eleanor-at-up-to-a-1-92bn-loss/

Cora/Aku

[edit]

https://www.smhi.se/bloggar/vaderleken-2-3336/cora-arets-forsta-namngivna-ovader-1.129080 https://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/vind/stormanimering?area=europa&date=20180106 https://www.met.no/nyhetsarkiv/ekstremvaeret-cora-preget-januarvaeret https://www.met.no/publikasjoner/met-info/ekstremvaer/_/attachment/download/099ee978-df9a-4a35-88f1-9b8ece0ccea1:d9f7f511ab78b9e517275c3818b72880d4626310/Met-info-14-2018.pdf

Fionn

[edit]

Met Eirann's decision to name Fionn was met with some criticism from some meteorologists, Liam Dutton tweeted that he thought the warning did not strictly accompany a cyclonic area of low pressure, but a tightening of isobars circulating a distant low in the region of the Faroes.[26]

brought gusts as high as 137 kilometres per hour (85 mph) to some parts of Ireland’s west coast,[27] equal to some previously named storms. Met Eireann stated that although Fionn was not strictly a cyclonic area the winds produced were dangerous

Met Office National Severe Weather Warnings advising Monday 15 January for snow and wind midweek as a system expected to develop.[28] developed with uncertainty unclear if it would meet storm naming criteria.[28] Could be seen that it would develop further after crossing the UK into the North Sea and towards Netherlands and Germany.[28]the French meteorological service, Meteo France, named the system Storm David[28] we then also adopt that name (David).[28]


There was some criticism of the UK Met office for not naming David/Friederike the day after, given the impact of the storm to East Anglia and Lincolnshire

confusion about which storm named what, and what names being used.http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/fionn-david-georgina-freiderike-what-is-the-name-of-the-storm-1-5360942 french media using Georgina... German Weather Service report into Friederike referred to it incorrectly as being named Fionn by the UK and Met Eireann.https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/besondereereignisse/stuerme/20180123_friederike_europa.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4

https://twitter.com/Schafernaker/status/953894482751164416

Fionn bombogenesis http://www.air-worldwide.com/Blog/What-Does-Bombogenesis-Do-to-a-Winter-Storm-/ explosive cyclogenesis to reach a nadir around 935 hPa on 14 Janaury.

low winds circulating the low persisted over much of the northern atlantic.

Fionn does not (strictly) fit the conceptual model of extra-tropical cyclonic windstorm as set out in here (though perhaps more distantly) [conceptual model should be considered to be very malleable][29]

at the time of Fionn named, the central low was filling and decaying into multiple shallower centres.

David/Friederike

[edit]
Eleanor Friederike
Date of impact17–18 January 2018
Maximum wind gustkm/h
Power outagesUnconfirmed
DamageUnconfirmed

https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/besondereereignisse/stuerme/20180123_friederike_europa.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4

sting jet https://twitter.com/Meteorologene/status/953971481003872257

Georgina

[edit]

sting jet, rapid deepening https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/956140644728221697 squall line https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/956117657694195713 line convection along cold front https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/956119922073047040 https://twitter.com/WeatherCast_UK/status/956102361428254720 957.7 hPa Stornoway https://twitter.com/eddy_weather/status/956092639660650496

hector

[edit]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/storm-hector?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1007306926680666112 https://www.met.no/nyhetsarkiv/kraftig-vind-pa-oransje-niva-pa-vestlandet

Europe cold

[edit]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/966316156071051264 https://twitter.com/judah47/status/966313316481150976 http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/02/heading_to_florida_soon_strong.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/21/this-weird-february-heat-dome-on-the-east-coast-could-be-unprecedented/?utm_term=.012c9f0d8426 https://mashable.com/2018/02/20/temperature-above-freezing-top-greenland-europe-cold-snap-snow/#K1sqYCQR.qq9 http://vejr.tv2.dk/2018-02-22-specielt-atmosfaerisk-faenomen-sender-isnende-kulde-mod-danmark

Emma

[edit]

https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2018/3/5.html https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/03/05/inenglish/1520242878_197294.html

Hugo

[edit]

https://twitter.com/AEMET_Esp/status/976767882913775616

march storms Spain https://noticias.eltiempo.es/por-que-tantas-borrascas-marzo/

Ulysses storm

[edit]

https://weatherrescue.wordpress.com/2017/10/12/february-1903-the-ulysses-storm/ also mentioned in the colophon of [In the Seven Woods] by W. B. Yeats: finished the sixteenth day of July in the year of the big wind 1903.

referenced in Ulysses by the character Buck Mulligan in the opening chapter when he says ‘printed by the weird sisters in the year of the big wind’ – mocking Y.B.Yeats’s colophon to In the Seven Woods.

19 storms

[edit]

10.1002/j.1477-8696.1970.tb03233.x

Schnellläufer

[edit]

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schnelll%C3%A4ufer_(Meteorologie)

translation speed http://www.rms.com/blog/2018/01/26/friederikedavid-the-day-our-luck-ran-out/ more popular designation within German media.

eg Vincinette 1962, Friederike 2018, St Jude 2013.

Beast from the East

[edit]

Beast from the east refers to a synoptic meteorological set up which sees a high pressure

advect cold air mass from Russia or Scandinavia

lake effect snow

Eumetsat

[edit]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/WEBOPS/iotm/iotm/20070118_kyrill/20070118_kyrill.html Kyrill and follow links through to Lothar animation.

Met Office red warnings

[edit]

National_Severe_Weather_Warning_Service colour coded warnings introduced by the Met Office in 2008, "to red, which is a 60 per cent or above chance of severe conditions".[30] Risk matrix

The NSWWS was given a major overhaul in 2011 following a review by the Public Weather Service Customer Group (Goldstraw, 2012). The current system allows warnings for rain, wind, fog, snow and ice to be issued across the UK, and it is split into two categories depending on the lead time: alerts may be issued between one and five days ahead, and warnings within 24 hours, of an expected severe weather event. The alerts and warnings are then further sub-divided into yellow, amber and red based on an assessment of the likelihood and projected impacts of the event, rather than just the simple thresholds which were used when issuing the FLASH warnings.[31]

2018 extended the warnings to cover thunderstorms and lightning, and extending warnings from 5 to seven days.[32]

[33]

Rain

Wind

  • what would have been a- Red warning of wind, 18 January 2007 Cyclone Kyrill.[35]
  • 8 December 2011, (Hurricane Bawbag/Friedhelm)The first storm, which crossed northernmost Scotland on 8 December (Figure 2), was consistently forecast several days in advance by the Met Office to bring a period of high winds to much of Scotland. A yellow alert was issued on 5 December and an updated yellow alert a day later. A combination of consistent model output, convergence between different models and agreement amongst forecasters that there was high confidence of a high-impact event for parts of Scotland led to an upgrading directly to a red warning on the 7th, the first red warning under the new impact-based NSWWS (Figure 3).[36]
  • 2-3 January 2012 Ulli <Met Office criticised for late upgrade from amber to red in the central belt.
  • 12 February 2014 Tini

Snow

Xaver 2013 storm surge

[edit]

xaver coincided with larger astronomical tides than 1953 and so had a larger spatial footprint.[39]

2800 properties flooded in the UK, in comparison to the 24000 flooded in 1953.[39]

Princess Plays

[edit]

Prinsessdramer SVT1 onsdag 8 21:30 december 2004 Teater Galeasen regi: Rickard Günther, Ingela Olsson, Monica Stenbeck och Anna Wallander.

i. Snow White, ii. Sleeping Beauty, Princess Diana, Jackie Kennedy/Onassis, and the authors Ingeborg Bachmann and Sylvia Plath.[40]

her plays seldom performed in Britain.[41]

Tidal barriers of the UK

[edit]

major Barriers or moveable gates built primarilty For flooding defence rather than power generation or amenity bodies of water.

A Humber barrier was rejected in the 1980s because of the large number of commercial ships using the estuary, and because of cost: the Environment Agency won’t say how much.[42] Tidal barriers or barrages Wash Severn.

Thames

[edit]
Main article: Thames Barrier

Constructed 1974-1984. type: rotating steel dam.

Barking Creek

[edit]
barking creek barrier

Barking Creek flood barrier River Roding meets the Thames was designed and built between 1979 and 1983 by architect G. T. Bone and engineers Binnie and Partners. The barrier itself is 38 metres wide and weighs almost 300 tons, held aloft between two 40 metre high towers.[43]

Dartford Barrier

[edit]

1981 The barrier comprises of two gates that travel vertically, driven by a chain system. Each of the two gates is balanced by two water-filled counterweights. The complete gate system is supported on two towers in which the counterweights are suspended and guided. Each gate is approximately 30 metres wide x 5.1 metres high. The gate tracks on the outside of the towers are so arranged that when lowered, the gates are placed one on top of the other to form a 10.12 metre high barrier across the creek.[44]

Tilbury dock flood defence gate

[edit]

a top hinged flap gap problem. The final design was for a stiffened single skin steel gate, hinged at its upper edge and stored at the lock side, horizontally within a support frame mounted on a system of rollers. To bring the gate into use, the frame is moved across the lock and the gate lowered into position.[45]

Canvey Island

[edit]
  • Fobbing Horse, Vange creek
  • Benfleet
  • Easthaven

Ipswich

[edit]

200-tonne rotating steel dam, cost &67 million[46] 2017 [47] Opened February 2019.[48]

Boston

[edit]

£100 million given go ahead.[49] operational from summer 2020.

Hull

[edit]
sryj

Located on the River Hull where it empties into the Humber Estuary. Opened in April 1980 following severe flooding of Hull city centre in September 1969, ith work starting in 1977. The Government had to pass new legislation – the Hull Tidal Surge Barrier Act 1973 – to enable the barrier to block the river to navigation when lowered. Barrier was transferred to Environment Agency in 1996. https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/devastation-inspired-hulls-tidal-barrier-3369543 is operated as a turnover lift gate. When in an open state, it is held horizontally above the river and boats and barges pass underneath whilst regular and efficient maintenance can be performed. Grade II listed 2017.[50]

York

[edit]

River_Foss_Barrier

Humber tunnel

[edit]

National Grid Humber gas pipeline replacement. Herrenknecht tBM 5 kilometer long tunnel. fully assembled the TBM weighs 510 tonnes, 160m long and is 3.65m high and wide.[51]

1998 floods

[edit]
1998 Easter Flooding
Date1998– 1998
LocationUnited Kingdom and Ireland

The most noteworthy flood event during the past year was that occurring over the Easter weekend in 1998. However, one incident occurring earlier in the year might potentially have had far greater consequences for UK insurers. The riverine floods occurring in England and Wales over the Easter weekend were, in some areas, worse than the previous “benchmark” river floods of 1947. The floods resulted from a short period of extremely high rainfall on Maundy Thursday (April 9th) in areas where the ground was already saturated from a previous period of wet weather. The Environment Agency preliminary report4 on the incident describes how around 75 millimetres of rain (6 weeks’ average rainfall) fell in just 36 hours. Many of the rivers in East and Central England and mid-Wales immediately became swollen beyond the extent to which their flood defences (e.g. those in Northampton and Banbury) had been designed to withstand. The resultant flooding was at a level estimated to have a return period of between 100 and 150 years. A map of the worst affected postal sectors is shown as Figure 1. In the first few days following the flooding, press speculation regarding the ultimate insured cost of the flood damage, and its likely effect on household premium rates, was typically ill-informed. Initial estimates placed the total insured loss at around £1.5 billion, and suggestions were made that insurers would be forced to increase household premium rates by as much as 35% as a direct consequence of the floods. Whilst, at the time of writing, there remains some uncertainty regarding ultimate insured costs, a figure of between £300m and £500m looks most likely, with a best estimate towards the lower end of this range. Since most responsible household insurers rate fully for the expected average annual cost of infrequent, catastrophic flood events, and hold statutory claims equalisation reserves specifically for such events, the effect of the Easter 1998 floods on overall household premium rates is likely to be close to nil. Given the attention that the risk of catastrophic coastal flooding has attracted in recent years, with such high-profile studies as that undertaken by ABI/Halcrow, it is ironic that the largest UK insured flood event in a generation related to riverine flooding. Insurers are notably short of relevant historic claims data on river floods, the only significant recent experience relating to the Perth floods of 15th to 17th January 1993. Furthermore, models of riverine flood risk have, until now, been largely missing from proprietary risk-assessment systems. As a consequence of the Easter 1998 floods, a large volume of new claims data has been obtained. In particular, many household insurers have taken the opportunity of collecting extra information on the extent of flood damage in each particular case, in order to better understand the correlations between the height of flood water in the home, the duration of flooding, and the size of the subsequent loss. One issue that the insurance industry might wish to consider is that of the effectiveness, or otherwise, of flood warning procedures. Insurers will wish to ensure that policyholders receive the earliest possible warning of a potential flood incident in order that they may take appropriate action (e.g. sandbagging doorways, removing valuables to an upper floor). The Environment Agency preliminary report comments on the effectiveness of flood warning and recovery procedures, and concludes that there are deficiencies. Many household insurers now have very effective telephone servicing operations which make use of detailed data regarding customer addresses and contact phone numbers. Insurers themselves might wish to receive flood warnings at the earliest opportunity in order that they may use these facilities to communicate flood warnings to a targeted atrisk area. Alternatively, insurers may wish to despatch their own sandbagging contractors! Any additional expense incurred would probably be more than offset by a subsequent reduction in claims costs, notwithstanding customer service benefits.[52] https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/conference-paper-archive/1998

References

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