User:Kyeong man kim

poland

1. survey

Poland, which has been pursuing economic liberalization since its democratization in 1989, is regarded as a successful transition from a socialist economy to a market economy. Over the past two decades, Poland's GDP growth has averaged 3.9% per annum, almost double the average rate of the European Union. Since the entry into the EU in 2004, the influx of EU funds, which are supported for the balanced development of the European Union countries, has strengthened the foundation of economic development. Especially due to the trust of foreign investors and strong growth of private consumption, Despite the global economic crisis, it was the only EU nation that achieved positive growth and emerged as a major economist in the Middle East and Europe. At present, Poland is continuing its steady economic growth based on its high accessibility as a Western European market including Germany, export competitiveness due to relatively low cost, labor superior to low labor costs, and efforts of the government to attract foreign investment. Is expected to achieve 1.5 to 2.5 percent economic growth in 2013. On the other hand, in Poland, the current high unemployment rate of 12 ~ 13%, the reduction of the budget deficit through the reform of the government, the balanced regional development through the development of eastern Poland, the development of the underdeveloped infrastructure and the bureaucratic hindering the private economic development And other issues such as the need for long-term economic growth.

2 Recent Economic Trends

Since joining the European Union in 2004, Poland has been continuing to grow steadily with the influx of foreign investment and stable economic operation. In particular, in the 2009 global financial crisis, it was the only EU member-led growth. In the eurozone crisis in 2011, the economy grew by 4.3%, more than double the average growth rate of the European Union (1.6% Respectively. This strong economic growth is attributed to the fact that Europe's largest exports to the EU due to the weakening of the domestic market and the downturn in the Middle East, and active investment in the construction and infrastructure sectors.

In 2012, when the European debt crisis intensified, Poland achieved encouraging economic growth of 3.6% and 2.3% in the first and second quarters respectively (Paul Central Bank 'Inflation Report', 2012. 11). This is attributed to the effect of economic stimulus such as infrastructure investment and employment increase due to the 2012 Euro Cup soccer tournament co-organized with Ukraine and promotion of consumer sentiment.

However, as major economic indicators such as GDP growth, exports and imports worsened from the previous forecasts in the second half of 2012, the average GDP growth rate in 2012 was 2.0% lower than expected. In particular, as the price index fell sharply and concerns over deflation grew, the central bank (NBP) raised its benchmark interest rate five times from November 2012 to March 2013

Economic institutions also lowered short-term economic growth estimates by 0.5-1.0%, as Poland's economic growth slowed in the second half of the year. As a result, the company expects to achieve growth of 1% in 2013 and 3% in 2014. Despite this downward adjustment, however, Poland's economic growth has disproved the robust growth potential of the Polish economy, at a very positive level, compared to what many major EU countries are expected to experience a recession .

3. Trends and prospects by detailed items

1) Government spending

Government consumption, which has been driving growth in the last few years and has been regarded as one of the main driving forces for Poland's economic growth, has been steadily declining since the new government launched austerity measures to reduce the fiscal deficit in 2011. The Polish government's enacted deficit has been 5 to 8 percent of GDP over the past three years, far exceeding the EU's recommended level of 3 percent of GDP. As a result, the Polish ruling party, which succeeded in re-election in 2011, continued its efforts to reduce the deficit by reforming pension reforms by raising the retirement age, introducing a ceiling on local government spending ceilings, It is underway.

As a result, Poland's government consumption grew by only 1% in 2011 and grew by only 1.3% in the first quarter of 2012 and 0.5% in the second quarter. Government spending is expected to grow within the range of -1.0 ~ 0.6% over the next two years, but it is expected to return to growth of 1 ~ 2% annually from 2014. However, The revival effect is unlikely to be expected.

Initially, the Polish government aimed to reduce GDP within 3% of the government 's budget deficit by 2012, but most economists expect it to be achieved by 2013. In the latest revision of the government's fiscal reform plan announced by the Polish government in recent years, the government's fiscal deficit is expected to be 3.5% of GDP in 2012 and similar in 2013. (Ministry of Economy, Poland, September 09, 2012)

In 2011, Poland's government debt and public debt grew for the fifth consecutive year, at 56.4% and 53.5% of GDP, respectively. The Polish Treasury Department estimates that the debt ratio will gradually decline from 2012, and as a percentage of GDP in 2016, government debt and public debt will decline by 52.0% and 49.6%, respectively. The Polish Constitution stipulates that public debt should not exceed 60% of GDP, and if it exceeds 55%, it places various constraints on government spending, which will seriously undermine the national fiscal deficits like the other EU countries suffering from the fiscal crisis. .

4. 2) Private demand

Private consumption, which has supported Poland's economy and has served as another axis of domestic growth, grew by 2.5% in 2011, following 3.0% in 2010 (based on OECD statistics). In the first half of 2012, when the eurozone financial crisis tended to intensify, expectations for the Euro Cup, which was held jointly with Ukraine, and encouraging economic growth of 4.3% in 2011 led to a strong corporate and consumer confidence index, , Showing a remarkable growth in retail sales, which heightened expectations for Poland's economic growth.

However, private consumption grew 0.9% in the third quarter of 2012, the lowest level since 1Q03, and the IPSOS Consumer Confidence Index, which was higher than other European advanced economies, has been on a downward trend since August. In addition, retail sales in September fell 0.4% year-on-year to a 27-month low, pushing private consumption in Poland down sharply after the end of the Euro Cup in June, raising concerns over the economic downturn .

Industrial production also dropped sharply since July, falling 5.2% YoY in September, the first minus growth since the economic crisis in 2009. Corporate investment also plummeted 1.5% and 3.0% YoY in 2Q and 3Q, respectively, after 0.8% growth in the first quarter of 2012 (Paul Central Bank 'Inflation Report', 2012. 11). Corporate credibility has also been declining in all industries and shows the economic outlook for pessimistic companies.

The sharp decline in consumption in 2H12 is attributed to the bursting of the bubble in the construction industry, the end of temporary employment, the decline in exports, and the decline in employment and real wages. Economic experts predict that private consumption in Poland will show a slight growth of around 1% over the next two years. In addition, due to the decline in demand for these private and business enterprises, the central bank forecasts Poland's domestic growth rates in 2012 and 2013 at 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

5.3) Inflation and Interest Rates

In 2011, the average annual inflation rate in Poland was 4.3% (CPI), based on the annual average of Statistics Korea, due to an increase in domestic demand, an increase in international crude oil and raw material prices, And 3.9% (HICP) of the National Statistical Office. This is above the 2.5 ± 1% target of the inflation rate of the Central Bank of Poland (NBP). The Central Monetary Authority (RPP) has adjusted the base rate four times in the first half of 2011 to 3.75% To 4.50%.

In spite of several hikes in interest rates and efforts to defend the currency rate of the Zwolt government, Paul's central bank raised the interest rate on May 10 as the inflation rate, However, due to continued high oil prices, the inflation rate continued to average 4.0% until the third quarter without a large price stabilization effect.

On the other hand, major economic indicators such as GDP, exports, and imports in the second half of the year after the third quarter were lower than expected, and the consumer price index froze 1.3%, the lowest since 1.2% in October 2006. For the first time in six years, it is forecast to be lower than the forecast of the Polish Monetary Policy Committee (RPP) (2.5%). Economists expect inflation to reach 1% in April and 1.4% in December. As the price of agricultural products such as sugar, meat, and meat processed foods has become cheaper due to the decrease in inflation, spending on spices such as alcoholic beverages and tobacco has increased, as well as agricultural products.

Thus, the central bank cut the interest rate by 1.5% p for six months from November to May this year. On May 8 this year, the Polish Monetary Policy Committee decided to further lower the benchmark interest rate from 3.25% to 3%, which is the lowest rate so far. However, Poland's interest rate is still among the highest in the European Union, some analysts are insisting on further interest rate cuts, and the Polish government is likely to cut interest rates further, depending on the pace of economic recovery.

6.Exchange Rate

In 2011, due to the worsening Eurozone financial crisis, the worsening of the Polish Zwolt value has led to a sharp decline in value. In the second half, the exchange rate has soared to 3.3 zł per dollar and 4.5 zł per euro. In particular, the exchange rate against the Swiss franc, which holds more than half of Polish mortgage loans, has soared to 24% from the beginning of the year.

As the worsening of the exchange rate worsened due to the increase in inflation, the Polish authorities, which had maintained the market autonomous policies, tried to intervene in the market several times in the market intervention in 10 years. However, this did not have a big effect, and the weakness of ZuluThai continued until the end of the year, ending with 3.4174 ZWITT for the dollar and 4.4580 ZWITLE for the euro, which rose 15.29% and 12.64% respectively from the beginning of the year.

Even in 2012, Poland's Zutou Tiju showed a large fluctuation of up to 10% with vulnerability to external shocks. Due to robust economic growth in 2011, the re-evaluation of Zhou Tai-hua has been ongoing since 2012, and the euro's exchange rate fell to 4.1 zwei in March. However, after the Greek general election, And soared to a maximum of 4.4.

In the second half of the year, the market has plummeted again, and in August, the price of 4.06 zwoty per euro dropped to 3.28 zwoty. Currently, it maintains 4.07 ~ 4.12 line without major rebound. According to the EIU forecast, it is expected to rise to 4.40 JUWU in the first half of this year in the short term, but will return to the strength of JUWAITU again in the second half of the year.

7. employ

In 2011, corporate sector employment in Poland grew at an average annual rate of 3.3%, the highest level since the economic crisis in 2009, but the unemployment rate was 12.4% per annum on average, similar to 2010 (based on the PST statistics). The high unemployment rate continued into 2012, with the unemployment rate of 13.3% in the first quarter, 12.4% in the second quarter, and 12.4% in the third quarter. Employment, on the other hand, shrank sharply to only 0.2%

At the end of 2012, the unemployment rate of males increased more than three times faster than females due to the recession of industry and construction industry. Compared with the end of 2011, the unemployment rate for women increased by 3.7%, while for men, the unemployment rate increased by 12.5%. The major cause of the unemployment rate for men is the large-scale dismissal caused by the recession of the construction industry and the manufacturing industry, which mainly involve men. Currently, male daily workers account for 60% of total Polish workers. On the other hand, the unemployment rate of women is gradually decreasing. At the end of last year, 106 women were dismissed based on 100 unemployed men, down from 115 in 2011.

Poland has large disparities in regional labor market conditions, with unemployment rates varying widely from less than 5% to more than 25%. Looking at the unemployment rate by region as of September 2012, Poznan had the lowest unemployment rate of 9.1% in the state of Wielkopolskie, and in the provinces of Mazowieckie in the capital and Śląskie and Małopolskie in the south- % Of unemployment. In contrast, the unemployment rate of the relatively underserved Warmińsko-mazurskie in the northeastern province was 19.5%. In terms of cities, major industrial zones and foreign investment centers Poznan (4.1%), Sopot (4.2%), Warsaw (4.1%), Katowice (4.9%), Wroclaw (5.2%) and Krakow The unemployment rate was 40% lower than the average.

According to a recent forecast by the Polish Central Bank, Poland's 2014-2015 unemployment outlook is projected to increase by 12.1% to 12.4% from 11.1% in 2013. This year's labor force rate declined by about 1.1% to the first quarter, the first decline since 2003, with a 1.1% decline in 2014 and a 0.2% decline in 2015, resulting in a reduction in the workforce by about 370,000. In the past 20 years, the unemployment rate has remained unchanged from the current level (from 20% in 2002 to 9.5% in 2008), but despite the impact of the global recession, It has maintained a relatively high growth rate of 3.5% ~ 4%. Experts predict that it will be necessary to maintain an economic growth rate of about 3% in order to increase the workforce in Poland.

8.wage

In 2011, the average monthly wages of workers in the Polish enterprise sector (on a gross receipts basis) continued to climb after 2010, registering an average annual growth rate of 4.9%, to 3,602.

Wage growth continued into the first half of 2012, but the employment market narrowed and the real wage growth slowed down from 2H09, recording a 3,728 won rate, up 3.4% from the previous year.

In March 2013, the average monthly wage in the corporate sector was 3,833 yuan, up 3.3% from the previous month and 1.6% from the same period of last year. By sector, wages are rising by 4 ~ 7% in mining, energy and chemical industries, which are mostly state-owned enterprises, and wages are falling in construction-related industries.

Poland's 2012 minimum wage has risen steadily over the past five years and has risen by 6.67% in 2013 to 1,600 junior highs (pre-tax). The tripartite committee is discussing ways to raise the minimum wage in 2014 to 1,688.

9.Banks and financial institutions

The financial system of Poland is composed of three main axes: 1) central bank (National Bank of Poland, NBP), 2) commercial bank (general bank), and 3) industrial bank.

The Act on Financial Market Management Supervision was enacted on June 21, 2006 and the Polish Financial Supervisory Service (PF) has been conducting financial supervision since January 1, 2008. The integration of financial and bank supervisory authority is considered an important decision that has enhanced the stability of the Polish financial market and increased the importance of the global financial group.

Financial supervision conducted by the Financial Supervisory Commission before January 1, 2008 had a limited purpose of ensuring the stability of deposits held by banks. The purpose of PF Co., Ltd. is to further enhance the stability and transparency of the financial market. PF Corp. is supervised by the chairman of the cabinet committee.

1) National Bank of Poland

The scope of work of the National Bank of Poland is stipulated in the Polish Constitution, the Banking Act and the Banking Law. The main objective of the central bank of Poland is to maintain the stability of the currency market. In addition to the monetary policy, currency problem, and currency management and operation system development tasks, it also manages official currency reserves, provides education and information, and provides financial services.

The Central Bank Management Authorities include the President of the Central Bank, the Monetary Policy Committee and the Central Bank Management Committee. The Monetary Policy Committee establishes the framework of monetary policy, sets the interest rate, and determines the obligations of commercial banks. The Trustees shall direct the activities of the central bank. The adoption and implementation of central bank action plans, the implementation of financial plans approved by the Commission, and the performance of duties related to exchange rate policies and payment systems.

2) Commercial banks (commercial banks)

Mergers and acquisitions are among the most important growth methods used by commercial banks. Bank-to-bank M & A has been active in Poland since the early 1990s and still has a significant impact on the overall operation of the Polish financial system. As a result of M & As, the number of banks has decreased significantly, especially the number of banks that are growing economically weak and growing to become major banks. As foreign investment banks are expected to become more active in Poland in the future, inter-bank M & A is expected to continue in the future.

10.Stock Trading and Capital Market Regulations

The Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) is a joint-stock company incorporated by the KTO. WSE started operation in May 1991 and in August 2007 launched the New Connert market, where venture companies with high growth potential can participate. In addition to WSE, investment companies operating in the Polish funds market and investment fund management companies must also be approved by PF. WSE trading hours are from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm. (Except for mass sales)

In WSE, it is possible to trade stocks, bonds, warrants, futures, options, IPUs, allotment certificates, investment certificates and derivatives.

From July 29, 2005, the Polish capital market is regulated by the provisions of 1) regulations governing the introduction of financial products in public offerings and organized transactions, 2) trading of financial instruments, and 3) .

The predecessor of the WSE began in 1817 when the first commercial exchange occurred in Warsaw. The current form of activity began on April 16, 1991, when an electronic stock exchange was opened.

Stock Exchange is a joint-stock company established by the Treasury Department and its shareholders are comprised of about 35 institutions and companies including banks, brokerage firms, stock trading companies and the Treasury Department. The shareholders' meeting is the highest decision-making group, and its main function is to select 12 members of the Supervisory Board and the Chairman of the Management Committee. The Trustees shall consist of four members and a Trustee who shall be elected for a term of three years.