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As negotiations continue over the Iranian nuclear program, many press reports have revealed possible military plans for airstrikes against facilities connected to the program by the Israeli and or US military. In addition, there have been reports of military steps being taken in preparation of any such strikes.
Targets
[edit]- For a full list, see Nuclear facilities in Iran.
The Iranian nuclear program is spread over an array of sites across Iran,and located both above and below ground.
US
[edit]Preparation
[edit]In April 2006, journalist Seymour Hersh said that American troops were already operating inside Iran with minority groups, "studying the terrain, and giving away walking-around money to ethnic tribes, and recruiting scouts from local tribes and shepherds."[1] Hersh also said that naval aircraft in the Arabian Sea have been flying mock nuclear weapon delivery missions since the summer of 2005, maneuvers which would be picked up by Iranian radar.
In January 2007, US President George W. Bush ordered a second carrier strike group to the Middle East, and pledged to deploy Patriot missile systems to defend US allies in the region. In addition, he said that intelligence-sharing would be expanded with them.[2]
Plans
[edit]Most reports on US plans detail a sustained bombing campaign that would strike hundreds of targets: not only nuclear installations, but a variety of military facilities and infastructure. According to one US military official, there are 1500 separate "aim points" for airstrikes against nuclear related facilities.[3] This kind of broad campaign would likely require most major US military aircraft: B-1, B-2, and B-52 bombers, F/A-18 Hornet strike fighters operating from US navy carriers, and F-15, F-16, F-117 fighters launched from land bases.[3]
Targets would be attacked with bunker busting bombs guided by GPS or laser, and assisted with spotting by manned and unmaned aircraft.[3] Some targets may be marked by laser beams positioned by US troops, who are operating with Iranian minority groups such as the Azeris, Baluchis, and Kurds. The US might also use bunker-busting tactical nuclear weapons, like the B61-11. These would be used against undergroud sites, such as the centrifuge plant at Natanz.[1] Additional cruise missiles may be launched from US surface or submarine forces.[3]
After the 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict, another Hersh article stated that the Israeli air-war against Hezbollah in Lebanon was "the mirror image of what the United States has been planning for Iran."[4]
Israel
[edit]Preparation
[edit]In 2005 the US sold Israel 30 long range F-15 for US$48 million each, in addition to later shipping 5000 GBU-27 and GBU-28 laser-guided bunker-busters. Both aircraft and bunker-busters would likely be used in any strike against Iran.[5]
Plans
[edit]One reported plan for an Israeli attack against Iranian facilities would involve Israeli aircraft first using conventional laser-guided bombs in order to open "tunnels", followed by tactical nuclear weapons that would explode underground.[6]
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b Hersh, Seymour M. "The Iran Plans", The New Yorker, April 8, 2006. Retrieved January 15, 2007.
- ^ President's Address to the Nation, White House. Retrieved January 16, 2007.
- ^ a b c d Duffy, Michael. "What Would War Look Like?", Time Magazine, September 17, 2006. Retrieved January 16, 2007.
- ^ Hersh, Seymour M. "Watching Lebanon", August 14, 2006. Retrieved January 15, 2007.
- ^ Zunes, Stephen. "The United States, Israel, and the Possible Attack on Iran", Foreign Policy in Focus, May 2, 2006. Retrieved January 16, 2007.
- ^ Mahnaimi, Uzi and Baxter, Sarah. "Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran", The Sunday Times, January 7, 2007. Retrieved January 15, 2007.
See also
[edit]
Add AFD
[edit]On 2007-01-07, The Sunday Times, a British newspaper, reported[1] that Israel has developed plans to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz[2] with a nuclear first strike. According to the Times, "several [unnamed] Israeli military sources" told the paper that Mossad, Israel's intelligence service, believes Iran may produce enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb within two years. The sources also said that the Israeli Air Force is training to use tactical nuclear weapons against Iran because Israeli commanders believe conventional weapons may be insufficient to destroy the highly-fortified Natanz site.
Israel used conventional weapons to destroy the Iraqi nuclear reactor Osirak in Operation Opera in 1981.
Initial report
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The report said that[1]:
The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb. Under the plans, conventional laser-guided bombs would open “tunnels” into the targets. “Mini-nukes” would then immediately be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout. “As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished,” said one of the sources.
Citing Israeli sources, the reports said the plan is to use conventional weapons to dig a "tunnel" into the Natanz uranium enrichment facility which will then be destroyed by dropping 1/15 x 20 kT (Hiroshima) = 1.33 kT mini nukes down the tunnel. The plan envisions first strike nuclear destruction of the Natanz facility with no significant radioactive fallout consequences.
The tactical nuclear weapons would only be used if conventional weapons were "ruled out" and if the United States "declined to intervene", the article continues, based on "senior" military sources.
Reaction
[edit]Official Israeli denials
[edit]Most members of the Israeli government and military refused to comment on the report. Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev denied the plans for a military intervention, saying that Israel is supporting diplomatic efforts.[citation needed] Ephraim Kam, a strategic expert at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Strategic Studies and a former senior army intelligence officer, also dismissed the report. "No reliable source would ever speak about this, certainly not to the Sunday Times," Kam told the Associated Press.[citation needed]
Iran
[edit]Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted in the Irish Times on January 17 2007 in reference to the attack reports: "I don't think they would ever dare to attack us, neither them nor their masters. They won't do such a stupid thing"[3]
Others
[edit]Zev Chafets, of the Los Angeles Times, wrote: "If the Sunday Times is right and Israel is preparing a strike on the Iranian nuclear program, that may not be good news, but, realistically, it is a damn sight better than the alternative."[4]
Stratfor writes that "Whereas Iraq concentrated its facilities at Osirak, the Iranians have strategically spread out their nuclear sites, several of which can only be penetrated using tactical nuclear bunker-buster bombs. Even using these weapons in a sustained air campaign, the Israelis' ability to wipe out Iran's widely dispersed nuclear capability in a first-strike offensive is questionable."[5]
Louis Rene Beres, in the Jewish press, writes "It is, of course, exceedingly unlikely that Israel would ever decide to launch a preemptive nuclear strike. Although circumstances could arise wherein such a strike would be perfectly rational, it is implausible that Israel would allow itself ever to reach these circumstances. Moreover, unless the nuclear weapons involved were used in a fashion consistent with the authoritative expectations of the laws of war, this form of preemption would represent a serious violation of international law."[6]
Financial predictions
[edit]A report leaked from the European banking giant ING Group dated January 9 2007 described to subscribers the predicted effects on the financial markets of such an attack.[7]
In the two reports[8][9], Charles Robertson, ING Group's Chief Economist for Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa, described an Israeli attack on Iran as "high impact, if low probability" and reasoned that Israel was "not prepared to accept the same doctrine of ‘mutually assured destruction’ that kept the peace during the Cold War. Israel is adamant that this is not an option for such a geographically small country. ... So if Israel is convinced Iran is aiming to develop a nuclear weapon, it must presumably act at some point." RawStory points out that Robertson believes that if the attack was to take place, "we can be fairly sure that if Israel is going to act, it will be keen to do so while Bush and Cheney are in the White House."
According to the report, the biggest financial impact would be felt by the currencies of Turkey, then followed by the United States. Gold and oil prices would spike. The extent and duration of the financial effects would depend on the extent of Iranian retaliation according to the report.
In late January 2007 Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert spoke at the Herzliya conference, saying that "The Jewish people, with the scars of the Holocaust fresh on its body, cannot afford to allow itself to face threats of annihilation once again...We can stand up against nuclear threats and even prevent them."[10] A senior British military official said that Israel was serious about their statements and preparing the court of public opinion, but that
References
[edit]- ^ a b Uzi Mahnaimi, Sarah Baxter (07-01-2007). "Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran". www.timesonline.co.uk. Retrieved 2007-01-08.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility". www.GlobalSecurity.org. Retrieved 2007-01-08.
- ^ "Iran brushes off Israel attack reports". Irish Times. 17-01-2007. Retrieved 2007-01-17.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Zev Chafets (10-01-2007). "Maybe Israel should bust Iran's bunkers". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 2007-01-10.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Geopolitical Diary: Israel's Options Against Iran". Stratfor. 3-01-2007. Retrieved 2007-01-3.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|accessdate=and|date=(help) - ^ Louis Rene Beres (10-01-2007). "Iran's Nuclear Program And Planned Genocide Against Israel". Jewish Press. Retrieved 2007-01-10.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Michael Roston (15-01-2007). "Major investment bank issues warning on strike against Iran". Raw Story. Retrieved 2007-01-15.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Charles Robertson (09-01-2007). "Attacking Iran: The market impact of a surprise Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities" (PDF). ING Group. Retrieved 2007-01-15.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Global Economics and Strategy Team (15-01-2007). "Prophet Newsletter" (PDF). ING Group. Retrieved 2007-01-15.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Penketh, Anne. "Israel raises nuclear stakes with Iran", The Independent, January 25, 2007. Retrieved January 25, 2007.