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The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 Keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed as an approach to earthquake prediction.

The system is a thirteen-point checklist that uses true-or-false statements: When five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the incumbent party is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the challenging party is predicted to win.^[1]^[2]^[3] Since the system was published in 1981, Lichtman has been credited with a high degree of accuracy in predicting the outcome of the elections from 1984 through 2020 using the system.^[4]^[5]^[6]

Unlike other prediction methods, the Keys system does not rely on monitoring the major-party preferences expressed in opinion polls.^[7] Lichtman argues that the system’s reliability proves that American voters select their next president according to how well the country was governed in the preceding four years and that election campaigns have little, if any, meaningful effect on American voters. If voters are satisfied with the governance of the country, they will re-elect the president or whoever from his party runs in his stead, but if they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party.^[8]^[9]

Development

Vladimir Keilis-Borok

Allan Lichtman

While attending a dinner party at Caltech in 1981, Allan Lichtman met Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a leading Russian geophysicist. Both men were Fairchild Scholars at Caltech.^[10] Keilis-Borok was interested in applying his prediction techniques to liberal-democratic political systems. This was not possible for him to do within the Soviet Union, which was a one-party state, and a guest at the party referred him to Lichtman. Lichtman attracted Keilis-Borok's interest because he was a quantitative historian who mathematically analyzed trends in American history. Lichtman agreed to help Keilis-Borok apply his prediction techniques to American presidential elections.^[11]

Lichtman and Keilis-Borok examined data collated from every presidential election from 1860 to 1980 to identify factors that seemed predictive of election outcomes. From his own studies of American presidential elections, Lichtman had come to the conclusion that voters are in fact not swayed by election campaigns and instead vote according to how well the president has performed in office. Lichtman also noticed that even if the president did not seek re-election, his successes and failures would help or hinder the prospects of the nominee of his party: these insights shaped how he and Keilis-Borok conducted their research.^[12]

Lichtman and Keilis-Borok published their prediction model in a 1981 paper. At that stage, their system had 12 keys, including keys that considered the number of terms the incumbent party had held the presidency, and if the incumbent party had won a popular vote majority in the previous election. Four other keys were ultimately removed that considered political ideology, the dominant party of the era, if there was a serious contest for the challenging party nomination, and if the country was in wartime or peacetime.^[13]^[14]

The system was later modified to 13 keys, with the tenure key and the popular vote majority key both replaced by the party mandate key and the foreign/military failure and success keys being added.

Some of the keys are objective, such as economic growth, while others require qualitative judgment, such as candidate charisma.^[15]

The thirteen keys

The system consists of 13 true/false statements pertaining to circumstances surrounding a presidential election, with an answer of "true" always favoring the incumbent party.

If five or fewer keys are false, this indicates political stability and the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, this indicates a political earthquake and the incumbent party is predicted to lose.^[16]^[17]

#	Name	Description^[16]
1	Party mandate	After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2	No primary contest	There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3	Incumbent seeking re-election	The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4	No third party	There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5	Strong short-term economy	The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6	Strong long-term economy	Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7	Major policy change	The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8	No social unrest	There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9	No scandal	The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10	No foreign or military failure	The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11	Major foreign or military success	The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12	Charismatic incumbent	The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13	Uncharismatic challenger	The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Party mandate (1)

Key 1 (party mandate) is turned true if the incumbent party has achieved a net gain of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the previous presidential and midterm elections combined. For example, Lichtman refers to the 1982 U.S. House elections in the middle of Ronald Reagan's first term when the Republicans lost 27 seats: as the Republicans had gained 35 seats in 1980, this left them with a net gain of eight seats, turning the key true.

Lichtman says that midterm elections reflect the performance of the incumbent party and are an indicator of nationwide electoral trends. Additionally, if the incumbent party performs poorly, a large loss of House seats can also affect the president's ability to enact policy, which can result in other keys turning false.

No primary contest (2)

Key 2 (no primary contest) is turned true if the incumbent party nominee wins at least two-thirds of the total delegate vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention, with no deep and vocal party divisions.

Lichtman says the incumbent party's ability to unite behind a consensus nominee is reflective of successful governance, whereas a contested nomination is indicative of internal party strife caused by weak governance.

Notable primary contests that turned the key false occurred in 1860 (the Democrats split between Northern Democrats and Southern Democrats over slavery, with two conventions and 59 ballots being required to nominate Stephen A. Douglas), 1896 (due to a dispute between the Bourbon wing of the Democrats led by sitting president Grover Cleveland and the populist wing of the Democrats led by William Jennings Bryan, the convention required five ballots to nominate Bryan), 1912 (the Republicans split between the conservatives of President William Howard Taft and the progressives of former President Theodore Roosevelt, with Taft being nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the convention with only 52% of the delegate vote after progressives walked out), and in 1968 (there were deep and vocal divisions within the Democrats over the Vietnam War, including strong opposition by the anti-Vietnam War wing of the Democrats to the nomination of Vice President Hubert Humphrey).

Conversely, a serious contest for the challenging party's nomination does not harm its nominee's election prospects, as a weak incumbent party often results in a crowded challenging party primary field in anticipation of a winnable general election.^[18]^[19] Landslide challenging party popular vote victories coming after a serious contest for the party's nomination include those of Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1860 (10.13 points), Democrat Woodrow Wilson in 1912 (18.67 points), Republican Warren G. Harding in 1920 (26.17 points), and Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 (17.76 points).^[20]^[21]

Incumbent seeking re-election (3)

Lichtman says an incumbent president seeking re-election has several advantages, such as the ability to set the national agenda, and will often attract much more media attention than a non-incumbent. The president can also benefit from the rally 'round the flag effect in times of crisis.

Lichtman also says that presidents running for re-election will rarely face the strongest candidates from the challenging party, as they typically refrain from running unless the president is seen as very vulnerable.

The incumbency key also correlates with key 2 (no primary contest), as it usually guarantees there will be no serious contest for the incumbent party's nomination. As of the 2020 election, when the president was running for re-election and faced no serious contest for their party's nomination, thus turning key 2 true, the president won the popular vote on 18 of 21 occasions, losing the Electoral College in 1888, with the exceptions being in 1932, 1992, and 2020.

No third party (4)

Key 4 (no third party) is turned false if there is a major candidate other than the nominees of the Democrats and the Republicans.

American presidential elections since 1860 have largely been de facto binary contests between Democrats and Republicans, as no third-party candidate has come close to winning.^[22] Lichtman says that if a third-party candidate is unusually popular, it signals major discontent with the performance of the incumbent party and counts against them: he defines third parties as either perennial (having small and loyal constituencies) or insurgent (rising in response to particular circumstances).^[22]

Retrospectively, the key was turned false if a single third-party candidate won 5% or more of the national popular vote or there was a significant split in the incumbent party: for example, in 1948, Henry A. Wallace and Strom Thurmond both split from the Democrats and ran notable insurgent campaigns, turning the key false for President Harry S. Truman despite no third-party candidate winning 5% of the popular vote.

For upcoming elections, key 4 is turned false if a single third-party candidate consistently polls at 10% or more, indicating they are likely to receive 5% or more of the national popular vote: third-party candidates typically underperform their polling by around half, with Lichtman saying they tend to fade in the voting booth as voters focus on the major party candidates.^[23] Key 4 is the only key that concerns any polling of candidates.^[24]

Strong long-term and short-term economy (5 and 6)

Key 5 (strong short-term economy) is turned false if the economy is in recession during the election campaign.

Lichtman cites the early 1990s recession as an example: the recession ended in March 1991, but the National Bureau of Economic Research did not officially declare the recession had ended until 50 days after the election, turning the key false for George H. W. Bush.^[25]

Key 6 (strong long-term economy) is turned true if the real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms: Lichtman states that slow economic growth is indicative of an administration's lack of strength.

Major policy change (7)

Key 7 (major policy change) is turned true if the incumbent administration redirects the course of government or enacts a major policy change that has broad effects on the country's commerce, welfare or outlook; it does not matter whether the change is popular with the public, nor does it matter what ideological mold it was cast from. Abraham Lincoln abolishing slavery, Franklin D. Roosevelt enacting the New Deal, and Barack Obama enacting the Affordable Care Act were policy changes that turned the key true.^[16]

This key often correlates with other keys. For example, Herbert Hoover's failure to take vigorous action during the Great Depression prolonged the Depression, which in turn led to widespread social unrest, Hoover's Republicans having a large loss of House seats in the midterm elections, and the nomination of a charismatic challenger in Franklin D. Roosevelt.^[26]

No social unrest (8)

Key 8 (no social unrest) is turned false if there is widespread violent unrest that is sustained or leaves critical issues unresolved by the time of the election campaign, making the voters call into serious question the stability of the country.

The American Civil War, the Red Summer of 1919, the racial and anti-Vietnam War protests of 1968, and the protests of 2020 triggered by the murder of George Floyd were incidents of unrest that were sufficiently serious and widespread to turn the key false. By contrast, the Great Railroad Strike of 1877, the 1921 Tulsa race riots, the 1980 Miami race riots, and the 1992 Los Angeles riots were too localized to turn the key false.^[26]

No scandal (9)

Key 9 (no scandal), a key that Lichtman declared as his personal favorite, is turned false if there is bipartisan recognition of serious impropriety that is directly linked to the president, such as widespread corruption in the Cabinet and/or officials of an incumbent administration, or presidential misconduct resulting in a bipartisan impeachment.^[27] By contrast, the voters ignore allegations of wrongdoing that appear to be the product of partisan politicking or are not directly linked to the president. For example, the impeachment of Andrew Johnson in 1868 and the Iran-Contra affair during Ronald Reagan's second term did not turn the key false.

The Watergate scandal began during Republican President Richard Nixon's first term, but it did not affect Nixon's re-election bid in 1972, since the voters believed at the time that it was political point-scoring by the Democrats. After Nixon's re-election, new information came to light that implicated him in the scandal and raised concerns among Republicans, turning the key false: the scandal resulted in Nixon's resignation, and contributed to the Republicans' defeat in 1976.^[28]

Foreign or military failure and success (10 and 11)

Key 10 (no foreign or military failure) is turned false if a failure occurs that is perceived to undermine the standing of the United States and/or erode trust in the president's leadership. Lichtman cites the attack on Pearl Harbor under Franklin D. Roosevelt, the botched Bay of Pigs invasion under John F. Kennedy, North Vietnamese victory in the Vietnam War under Gerald Ford, and the Iranian hostage crisis under Jimmy Carter as failures that turned the key false. By contrast, failed diplomatic initiatives, such as Dwight D. Eisenhower's failure to negotiate a nuclear test ban treaty with the Soviet Union, will not turn the key false.

Key 11 (major foreign or military success) is turned true if an achievement is seen as improving the prestige and interests of the United States. Lichtman cites the formation of NATO under Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower negotiating an armistice to the Korean War, John F. Kennedy's handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the killing of Osama bin Laden under Barack Obama as successes that turned the key true.^[29]

Candidate charisma (12 and 13)

Key 12 (charismatic incumbent) is turned true if the incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero, while key 13 (uncharismatic challenger) is turned false if the challenging party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Key 13 is the only key that pertains to the challenging party.

Lichtman defines a charismatic candidate as one with an extraordinarily persuasive or dynamic personality that gives him or her broad appeal that extends to voters outside their party's base. Having studied the political careers of all historical presidential candidates, Lichtman found that James G. Blaine, William Jennings Bryan, Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama had charisma that was exceptional enough to make a measurable difference in their political fortunes. By contrast, Lichtman found that while Donald Trump had an intense appeal, it was with only a narrow slice of the electorate, as opposed to the broad appeal that Ronald Reagan had with traditionally Democratic voters.^[30]

Lichtman defines a candidate as a national hero if they are seen by the public as having played a critical role in the success of a national endeavor: he found that Ulysses S. Grant and Dwight D. Eisenhower were seen as national heroes, as both were great war leaders instrumental to major American victories.^[31] By contrast, he said that while many Americans admired John McCain for his military service, he was not seen as a national hero because he had not led the country through war.^[32]

Retrospective application to elections (1860–1980)

While developing the keys, Lichtman retrospectively applied them to every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980.

Republican President Theodore Roosevelt's election in 1904 is the only occasion where all 13 keys were true for the incumbent party. The elections of 1876, 1960, and 2008 (an election the keys predicted prospectively) all had nine false keys against the incumbent party, which was the Republicans on all three occasions.

For the elections between 1860 and 1980, the keys corresponded with the popular vote winner for all 31 elections, and corresponded with the elected president for all but two elections.^[33]

The anomalies were as follows:

In 1876, when there were nine false keys against the incumbent Republicans, indicating the defeat of Republican nominee Rutherford B. Hayes. Democratic nominee Samuel J. Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, but an Electoral Commission declared Hayes the winner of the Electoral College by a single vote in a disputed election, and Hayes was therefore elected president.
In 1888, when there were five false keys against the incumbent Democrats, indicating the re-election of Democratic President Grover Cleveland. Cleveland won the popular vote, but Republican nominee Benjamin Harrison won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.^[34]^[13]^[35]

Table

**Retrospective application of the 13 keys to United States presidential elections by Allan Lichtman**
Election	Incumbent party nominee	Challenger party nominee	Party mandate	No primary contest	Incumbent seeking re-election	No third party	Strong short-term economy	Strong long-term economy	Major policy change	No social unrest	No scandal	No foreign or military failure	Major foreign or military success	Charismatic incumbent	Uncharismatic challenger	False keys	Presumed winner	Actual winner
1860	Stephen A. Douglas (Democratic)	Abraham Lincoln (Republican)	True	False^[a]	False	False^[b]	True	True	False	False^[c]	True	True	False	False	True^[d]	7	Abraham Lincoln
1864	Abraham Lincoln (Union/Republican)	George McClellan (Democratic)	True^[e]	True	True	True	True	False	True^[f]	False^[g]	True	True	True^[h]	False	True	3	Abraham Lincoln
1868^[i]	Ulysses S. Grant (Republican)	Horatio Seymour (Democratic)	True	True	False	True	True	True	True^[j]	False^[k]	True^[l]	True	True^[m]	True	True	2	Ulysses S. Grant
1868^[n]	Horatio Seymour (Democratic)	Ulysses S. Grant (Republican)	False	False^[o]	False	True	True	True	True^[j]	False^[k]	True^[l]	True	True^[m]	False	False	6	Ulysses S. Grant
1872	Ulysses S. Grant (Republican)	Horace Greeley (Democrat/Liberal)	False	True	True	True	True	True	False	False^[p]	True	True	True^[q]	True	True	3	Ulysses S. Grant
1876	Rutherford B. Hayes (Republican)	Samuel J. Tilden (Democratic)	False	False^[r]	False	True	False^[s]	False	False	True	False^[t]	True	False	False	True	9	Samuel J. Tilden^[u]	Rutherford B. Hayes
1880	James A. Garfield (Republican)	Winfield Scott Hancock (Democratic)	True	False^[v]	False	True	True	True	True^[w]	True	True	True	False	False	True	4	James A. Garfield
1884	James G. Blaine (Republican)	Grover Cleveland (Democratic)	False	False^[x]	False	True	False^[y]	False	False	True	True	True	False	True	True	7	Grover Cleveland
1888	Grover Cleveland (Democratic)	Benjamin Harrison (Republican)	False	True	True	True	True	True	False	False^[z]	True	True	False	False	True	5	Grover Cleveland^[aa]	Benjamin Harrison
1892	Benjamin Harrison (Republican)	Grover Cleveland (Democratic)	False	False^[ab]	True	False^[ac]	True	True	True^[ad]	False^[ae]	True	True	False	False	True	6	Grover Cleveland
1896	William Jennings Bryan (Democratic)	William McKinley (Republican)	False	False^[af]	False	True	False^[ag]	False	False	False^[ah]	True	True	False	True	True	8	William McKinley
1900	William McKinley (Republican)	William Jennings Bryan (Democratic)	False	True	True	True	True	True	True^[ai]	True	True	True	True^[aj]	False	False	3	William McKinley
1904	Theodore Roosevelt (Republican)	Alton Brooks Parker (Democratic)	True	True	True	True	True	True	True^[ak]	True	True	True	True^[al]	True	True	0	Theodore Roosevelt
1908	William Howard Taft (Republican)	William Jennings Bryan (Democratic)	True	True	False	True	True^[am]	False	True^[an]	True	True	True	True^[ao]	False	True^[ap]	3	William Howard Taft
1912	William Howard Taft (Republican)	Woodrow Wilson (Democratic)	False	False^[aq]	True	False^[ar]	True	True	False	True	True	True	False	False	True	6	Woodrow Wilson^[as]
1916	Woodrow Wilson (Democratic)	Charles Evans Hughes (Republican)	False	True	True	True	True	False	True^[at]	True	True	True	True^[au]	False	True	3	Woodrow Wilson
1920	James M. Cox (Democratic)	Warren G. Harding (Republican)	False	False^[av]	False	True	False^[aw]	False	True^[ax]	False^[ay]	True	False^[az]	True^[ba]	False	True	8	Warren G. Harding
1924	Calvin Coolidge (Republican)	John W. Davis (Democratic)	False	True	True	False^[bb]	True	True	True^[bc]	True	False^[bd]	True	True^[be]	False	True	4	Calvin Coolidge
1928	Herbert Hoover (Republican)	Al Smith (Democratic)	True	True	False	True	True	True	False	True	True	True	True^[bf]	False	True	3	Herbert Hoover
1932	Herbert Hoover (Republican)	Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic)	False	True	True	True	False^[bg]	False	False	False^[bh]	True	True	False	False	False	8	Franklin D. Roosevelt
1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic)	Alf Landon (Republican)	True	True	True	True	True	True	True^[bi]	True	True	True	False	True	True	1	Franklin D. Roosevelt
1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic)	Wendell Willkie (Republican)	False	True	True	True	True	True	True^[bj]	True	True	True	False	True	True	2	Franklin D. Roosevelt
1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic)	Thomas Dewey (Republican)	False	True	True	True	True	True	True^[bk]	True	True	False^[bl]	True^[bm]	True	True	2	Franklin D. Roosevelt
1948	Harry S. Truman (Democratic)	Thomas Dewey (Republican)	False	True^[bn]	True	False^[bo]	True	False	True^[bp]	True	True	False^[bq]	True^[br]	False	True	5	Harry S. Truman
1952	Adlai Stevenson II (Democratic)	Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican)	True	False^[bs]	False	True	True	False	False	True	False^[bt]	False^[bu]	True^[bv]	False	False	8	Dwight D. Eisenhower
1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican)	Adlai Stevenson II (Democratic)	True	True	True	True	True	True	False	True	True	True	True^[bw]	True	True	1	Dwight D. Eisenhower
1960	Richard Nixon (Republican)	John F. Kennedy (Democratic)	False	True	False	True	False^[bx]	False	False	True	True	False^[by]	False	False	False	9	John F. Kennedy^[bz]
1964	Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic)	Barry Goldwater (Republican)	False	True	True	True	True	True	True^[ca]	True	True	False^[cb]	True^[cc]	False	True	3	Lyndon B. Johnson
1968	Hubert Humphrey (Democratic)	Richard Nixon (Republican)	False	False^[cd]	False	False^[ce]	True	True	True^[cf]	False^[cg]	True	False^[ch]	False	False	True	8	Richard Nixon
1972	Richard Nixon (Republican)	George McGovern (Democratic)	False	True	True	True	True^[ci]	False	False	True	True^[cj]	True	True^[ck]	False	True	4	Richard Nixon
1976	Gerald Ford (Republican)	Jimmy Carter (Democratic)	False	False^[cl]	True	True	True^[cm]	False	False	True	False^[cn]	False^[co]	False	False	True	8	Jimmy Carter
1980	Jimmy Carter (Democratic)	Ronald Reagan (Republican)	False	False^[cp]	True	False^[cq]	False^[cr]	True	False	True	True	False^[cs]	True^[ct]	False	False	8	Ronald Reagan

The system's prediction record (1984–present)

Using the 13 keys, Lichtman has correctly predicted outcomes in most or all of the ten presidential elections from 1984 to 2020. A complication arises in assessing the system's record when the winner of the popular vote does not become President.

The two occasions when this discrepancy affected the record are as follows:

In 2000, when there were five false keys against the incumbent Democrats, with Lichtman predicting the election of Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic frontrunner, in November 1999.^[36] Gore won the popular vote^[37], but Republican nominee George W. Bush won the Electoral College and thus became president, after the recount in Florida was halted by the Bush v. Gore decision of the Supreme Court.
- Lichtman argued that in 2000, he specifically predicted the winner of the popular vote, which Gore won.^[38] In his 1988 book The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, Lichtman had defined his model as predicting the outcome of the popular vote,^[39] but in the journal articles wherein he made his prediction for 2000, he simply predicted a Gore win.^[40]^[36]. Lichtman further argues that Gore was the rightful winner of the 2000 election, and lost because of improper ballot counting in Florida.^[41]
In 2016, when there were six false keys against the incumbent Democrats, with Lichtman predicting the election of Republican nominee Donald Trump in September 2016. Trump lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
- In his book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016, Lichtman wrote that the keys "predict only the national popular vote and not the vote within individual states."^[42] He additionally wrote that in the three elections since 1860 where the popular vote diverged from the electoral college tally, his keys predicted the popular vote winner.^[42] However, Lichtman has also stated (after the 2016 election) that he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College that year,^[7]^[43], and he has been widely credited with a correct 2016 prediction.^[44] In 2020, statistician Nate Silver disagreed, interpreting Lichtman's prediction for 2016 as being a Trump win in the popular vote, which did not happen.^[45] See #Popular vote versus electoral vote.

Table

Predictions of United States presidential election outcomes by Allan Lichtman^[34]^[46]^[47]^[48]
Election	Incumbent party nominee	Challenger party nominee	Party mandate	No primary contest	Incumbent seeking re-election	No third party	Strong short-term economy	Strong long-term economy	Major policy change	No social unrest	No scandal	No foreign or military failure	Major foreign or military success	Charismatic incumbent	Uncharismatic challenger	False keys	Predicted winner	Actual winner
1984	Ronald Reagan (Republican)	Walter Mondale (Democratic)	True	True	True	True	True	False	True^[cu]	True	True	True	False	True	True	2	Ronald Reagan
1988	George H. W. Bush (Republican)	Michael Dukakis (Democratic)	True	True^[cv]	False	True	True	True	False	True	True^[cw]	True	True^[cx]	False	True	3	George H. W. Bush
1992	George H. W. Bush (Republican)	Bill Clinton (Democratic)	False	True	True	False^[cy]	False^[cz]^[49]	False	False	True	True	True	True^[da]	False	True	6	Bill Clinton
1996	Bill Clinton (Democratic)	Bob Dole (Republican)	False	True	True	False^[db]	True	True	False	True	True	True	False	False	True	5	Bill Clinton
2000	Al Gore (Democratic)	George W. Bush (Republican)	True	True	False	True	True	True	False	True	False^[dc]	True	False	False	True	5	Al Gore^[dd]	George W. Bush
2004	George W. Bush (Republican)	John Kerry (Democratic)	True	True	True	True	True	False	False	True	True	False^[de]	True^[df]	False	True	4	George W. Bush
2008	John McCain (Republican)	Barack Obama (Democratic)	False	True^[dg]	False	True	False^[dh]	False	False	True	True	False^[di]	False	False	False	9	Barack Obama
2012	Barack Obama (Democratic)	Mitt Romney (Republican)	False	True	True	True	True	False	True^[dj]	True	True	True	True^[dk]	False^[dl]	True	3	Barack Obama
2016	Hillary Clinton (Democratic)	Donald Trump (Republican)	False	False^[dm]	False	True^[dn]	True	True	False	True	True	True	False	False	True	6^[do]	Donald Trump^[dp]^[51]^[52]
2020	Donald Trump (Republican)	Joe Biden (Democratic)	False	True	True	True	False^[dq]	False	True^[dr]	False^[ds]	False^[dt]	True	False	False	True	7	Joe Biden^[53]
2024	Kamala Harris (Democratic)	Donald Trump (Republican)	False	True	False	True	True	True	True^[du]	True	True	False^[dv]^[54]	True^[dw]^[55]	False	True	4	Kamala Harris^[56]	TBD

Reception

Support

Lichtman has sometimes been called the "Nostradamus" of presidential elections,^[52] a reference to the French author noted for his predictions.

In 2016, Chris Cillizza reported that on The Fix, the daily political blog of The Washington Post, four of the ten most trafficked posts in 2016 "involved Lichtman and his unorthodox predictions."^[44]

At the 2020 conference of the American Political Science Association, a panel on "The 2020 Election: Forecasts from Three Classic Models" included a presentation from Lichtman on the Keys as one of the three such “classic” forecasting models.^[57]

Criticism

Lichtman's model has received significant criticism from political scientists, journalists, and commentators.^[52]

Qualitative keys

Some keys are based on objective data (such as economic statistics or election results), but others are qualitative. James E. Campbell, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, criticized the keys for their subjectivity, noting that they are often judged "in the eye of the beholder."^[52] Nate Silver argued that "several of [the keys] are quite subjective."^[58]In 2011, following Lichtman's call that President Barack Obama would win re-election in 2012, Megan McArdle of The Atlantic criticized Lichtman's subjectivity in applying the keys and their reliance on retrospective perception, applying them to Herbert Hoover in 1932, writing, "Unlike the economic models that rely on external metrics, perception is doing a lot of the work here. Do we count Obama's stimulus but not Hoover's?"^[59] Lichtman responded that the keys are judgmental but not subjective, with the judgment (such as whether a candidate is charismatic, or whether the incumbent administration effected major changes in national policy) being constrained by the specific definition in each key.^[52]^[60]

Role of economic factors

Silver criticized the fact that only two of the keys are based on economic factors, despite the economy being a primary concern of a majority of voters.^[58] Lichtman pointed out that economic factors can indirectly trigger other keys. For example, the Great Depression not only turned both economy keys false for President Hoover but also led to widespread social unrest, a significant loss of House seats for Hoover's Republicans in the 1930 midterms, and the nomination of a charismatic challenger in Franklin D. Roosevelt.^[60]

Popular vote versus electoral vote

Lichtman's work before the 2016 election usually referred specifically to the keys predicting the popular vote,^[61]^[62]^[51]^[63]^[64] including a direct statement in 2016 that the keys "only predict the national popular vote and not the vote within individual states".^[42] Lichtman similarly noted (in 2016) the possibility that the popular vote winner could diverge from the electoral college winner, and wrote that the keys would have predicted the popular vote winner in 1876, 1888, and 2000.^[42] However, Lichtman has also referred generically to candidates winning the Presidency (without mentioning the popular vote or its correlation with the electoral college), such as in 2000 when predicting a Gore win^[65]^[36] or 2016 when predicting a Trump win.^[23]

This discrepancy has led to dispute as to whether Lichtman's predictions have been correct or not. For example, if Lichtman's keys are interpreted to refer to a popular vote prediction only, then they would have been correct in the 2000 Presidential election, as Gore won the popular vote.^[37] Conversely, if the keys are understood to have always predicted the next President, then the accuracy of the keys that year is unclear. Lichtman has stated that Gore was the legitimate electoral college winner as well, but that the election was "stolen" by the Supreme Court and by irregularities in Florida.^[66]^[41]^[4]

Similarly, Lichtman's keys predicted a Trump win in 2016.^[23] Lichtman stated in 2020 that demographic factors prompted him in 2016 to make "the first modification of the Keys system since its inception in 1981."^[7] After an investigation by Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito, two reporters and alumni of American University, where Lichtman teaches, discovered an October 2016 explanation of his prediction in the journal Social Education (which stated that "the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes"),^[51] he stated, "I was not as clear as I could have been in that article" but that his subsequent writings and interviews before the election were clear.^[63] David W. Moore, writing for iMediaEthics, noted in 2020 that there is no record of Lichtman changing what his system predicted before the 2016 election.^[67] Nate Silver notes that Lichtman's prediction as incorrect because, although Trump did become president, he lost the popular vote.^[45]

Overall record

Emerson and Lovito have also criticized the predictive record of the keys, noting that the keys are no more accurate than the polls: "If you took whoever led in the polls from every election from 1984 to 2020 and predicted they would win, you would have predicted 9/10 elections correctly, which is the exact same record Lichtman can claim."^[68]

Statistical fitting

Silver argued that, given the large number of possible keys, the selection of a set that fit the elections from 1860 through 1980 could be seen as data dredging and overfitting. Silver said that "[i]t’s less that he has discovered the right set of keys than that he’s a locksmith and can keep minting new keys until he happens to open all 38 doors."^[58] Lichtman responded that the 13 Keys system is not the result of "random data-mining", but is instead grounded in a theoretical model, the theory being "that presidential elections are determined primarily by the performance of the party holding the White House."^[60] He also noted the system's record of correct predictions, sometimes years before the election or at a time when polls were running strongly in the other direction.^[60]

Notes

^ Due to a split between Northern Democrats and Southern Democrats over slavery, two Democratic conventions and 59 ballots were required to nominate Douglas.
^ John C. Breckinridge of the Southern Democratic Party received 18.1% of the popular vote, and John Bell of the Constitutional Union Party received 12.6% of the popular vote, finishing second and third respectively in the Electoral College ahead of Douglas.
^ Bleeding Kansas and widespread violent conflicts between abolitionists and supporters of slavery.
^ Lichtman said that Lincoln was not viewed as charismatic by his contemporaries, and only became widely perceived as such posthumously.
^ The Republicans lost House seats in the 1862 midterms, but due to Southern secession, the increase in their proportion of House seats compared to after the 1858 midterms gave them an effective net gain of 22 seats, thus turning the key true.
^ The abolition of slavery and major wartime changes in national policy during the Civil War.
^ The Civil War.
^ Major Union battle victories in the Civil War, including the capture of Atlanta in September 1864.
^ Lichtman considers the Republicans to be the incumbent party in 1868, despite sitting president Andrew Johnson being a Democrat, by reason of Johnson being elected on a Republican fusion ticket and heading an administration appointed by Lincoln.
^ Reconstruction Acts.
^ Widespread violent resistance in the South to Reconstruction.
^ Lichtman considers the impeachment of Andrew Johnson to be the product of partisan politicking, thus keeping the key true.
^ Union victory in the Civil War.
^ This row shows the keys if the Democrats are considered to be the incumbent party in 1868, by reason of sitting president Andrew Johnson being a Democrat.
^ The Democratic convention required 22 ballots to nominate Seymour.
^ Continued violent resistance to Reconstruction in the South.
^ The Treaty of Washington and rapprochment with the United Kingdom.
^ The Republican convention required seven ballots to nominate Hayes.
^ The Long Depression following the Panic of 1873.
^ The Whiskey Ring scandal and various other scandals in the Grant administration.
^ Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, but an Electoral Commission declared Hayes the winner of the Electoral College, and Hayes was therefore elected president.
^ The Republican convention required 36 ballots to nominate Garfield.
^ The end of Reconstruction.
^ Due to a dispute between the Stalwarts led by sitting president Chester A. Arthur and the Half-Breeds led by Blaine, the Republican convention required four ballots to nominate Blaine.
^ The Depression of 1882–1885.
^ Widespread labor unrest, including the Great Southwest railroad strike of 1886 and the Haymarket affair.
^ Cleveland won the popular vote, but Harrison won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
^ James G. Blaine and William McKinley challenged Harrison for the nomination: Harrison was nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the Republican convention, but with only 58.9% of the delegate vote.
^ James B. Weaver of the Populist Party received 8.5% of the popular vote.
^ The Sherman Silver Purchase Act, the Dependent and Disability Pension Act and the Sherman Antitrust Act.
^ Widespread labor unrest, including the Homestead strike.
^ Due to a dispute between the Bourbon wing of the Democrats led by sitting president Grover Cleveland and the populist wing of the Democrats led by Bryan, the Democratic convention required five ballots to nominate Bryan.
^ The Panic of 1893 and a second panic in 1896.
^ Widespread social unrest arising from the Panic of 1893, including the Coxey's Army protests, the Pullman Strike, and various other incidents of labor unrest.
^ The Gold Standard Act, the McKinley Tariff, and other domestic measures alongside fundamental changes to international relations.
^ U.S. victory in the Spanish–American War, the Treaty of Paris, and the Open Door Policy with China.
^ The enactment of the Square Deal and significant changes in the relationship between the public and private sectors, including Roosevelt's directing the government to prosecute numerous antitrust suits.
^ U.S. security of a lease on the Panama Canal Zone after supporting the separation of Panama from Colombia, U.S. victory in the Philippine–American War, and U.S. security of a lease on Guantánamo Bay after withdrawal from Cuba.
^ The Panic of 1907 resulted in a drop of GDP growth large enough to turn the long-term economy key false, but the economy was in recovery during the election campaign, thus keeping the short-term economy key true.
^ The Federal Meat Inspection Act, the Pure Food and Drug Act, and the Tillman Act of 1907.
^ Roosevelt received the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating an end to the Russo-Japanese War and the First Moroccan Crisis.
^ Bryan was seen as charismatic and inspirational in 1896 and 1900 but his voter appeal had faded and he had become the subject of frequent press ridicule in 1908.
^ Former President Theodore Roosevelt challenged Taft for the nomination, leading to a split between conservatives and progressives: Taft was nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the Republican convention, but with only 52% of the delegate vote after progressives walked out.
^ Theodore Roosevelt ran as the nominee of the Bull Moose Party and received 27.4% of the popular vote, finishing second ahead of Taft, and Eugene Debs of the Socialist Party received 6.2% of the popular vote.
^ Taft finished third behind Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt.
^ The Revenue Act of 1913, the Federal Reserve Act, and the Clayton Antitrust Act of 1914.
^ The Sussex pledge kept the U.S. out of World War I.
^ The Democratic convention required 44 ballots to nominate Cox.
^ The Depression of 1920–1921.
^ Significant wartime legislation, the establishment of prohibition, and nationwide voting rights for women.
^ The Red Summer of 1919 and the First Red Scare, including widespread labor strikes and anarchist bombings.
^ The Senate failed to ratify the Treaty of Versailles, leaving the United States out of the League of Nations.
^ Allied victory in World War I.
^ Robert M. La Follette of the Progressive Party received 16.6% of the popular vote.
^ The reversal of Roosevelt/Wilson-style progressivism and a return to pro-business and conservative policies, including the Revenue Act of 1924, the Fordney–McCumber Tariff, and the Immigration Act of 1924.
^ The Teapot Dome scandal and various other scandals in the Harding administration.
^ Disarmament agreements reached during the Washington Naval Conference.
^ The Kellogg–Briand Pact.
^ The Great Depression.
^ Widespread social unrest arising from the Great Depression, including the Bonus Army protest, labor strikes, and hunger marches.
^ Enactment of the New Deal.
^ Continuation of the New Deal, including the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 and the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938.
^ Continuation of the New Deal and numerous policy changes to mobilize manpower and production in World War II.
^ The attack on Pearl Harbor, early American losses in the Pacific War, and the botched Operation Market Garden.
^ Major Allied battle victories in World War II, including Operation Overlord.
^ Despite vocal opposition from Southern Democrats over civil rights, Truman was nominated for election on the first ballot of the Democratic convention with 76.8% of the delegate vote, thus turning the key true.
^ Henry A. Wallace and Strom Thurmond both split from the Democrats, with Wallace running as the nominee of the Progressive Party and Thurmond running as the nominee of the Dixiecrats.
^ Numerous foreign policy changes under the Truman Doctrine, the National Security Act of 1947, the Marshall Plan, and the desegregation of the military.
^ The Soviet Union expanded its influence by creating the Eastern Bloc.
^ Allied victory in World War II.
^ The Democratic convention required three ballots to nominate Stevenson.
^ The Democratic-controlled Senate investigated allegations of widespread corruption in the senior officials of the Truman administration.
^ The fall of China to Communism and the stalemate in the Korean War.
^ The establishment of NATO, the breaking of the Berlin Blockade, and success in containing the expansion of Soviet communism.
^ Eisenhower brokered an armistice in the Korean War.
^ The recession of 1960–1961.
^ The launch of Sputnik, the fall of Cuba to Communism, and the U-2 incident.
^ Due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, the Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Kennedy lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
^ Great Society programs, including the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964 and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
^ The botched Bay of Pigs invasion.
^ The resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
^ Humphrey was nominated on the first ballot of the Democratic convention with 67.5% of the delegate vote, but there were deep and vocal party divisions over the Vietnam War, including strong opposition by the anti-Vietnam War wing of the Democrats to the nomination of Humphrey, thus turning the key false.
^ George Wallace of the American Independent Party received 13.5% of the popular vote.
^ Johnson's Great Society programs, including the war on poverty, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the Civil Rights Act of 1968, and the Social Security Amendments of 1965.
^ Nationwide racial and anti-Vietnam War protests, the racial riots of summer 1967, and various other incidents of social unrest.
^ The stalemate in the Vietnam War.
^ The recession of 1969-1970 and the Nixon shock of 1971 resulted in a total drop of GDP growth large enough to turn the long-term economy key false, but the economy was in recovery during the election campaign, thus keeping the short-term economy key true.
^ The Watergate scandal was regarded as the product of partisan politicking at the time of the election campaign, thus keeping the key true.
^ Detente with the Soviet Union and a rapproachement with China following Nixon's visit.
^ Ronald Reagan challenged Ford for the nomination: Ford was nominated for election on the first ballot of the Republican convention, but with only 52.6% of the delegate vote.
^ The 1973-1975 recession resulted in a drop of GDP growth large enough to turn the long-term economy key false, but the economy was in recovery during the election campaign, thus keeping the short-term economy key true.
^ The Watergate scandal gained significant bipartisan recognition, and resulted in Nixon's resignation.
^ North Vietnamese victory in the Vietnam War and Khmer Rouge victory in the Cambodian Civil War.
^ Ted Kennedy challenged Carter for the nomination: Carter was nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the Democratic convention, but with only 64% of the delegate vote.
^ Independent John B. Anderson received 6.6% of the popular vote.
^ The 1980 recession.
^ The unresolved Iranian hostage crisis and the collapse of detente with the Soviet Union.
^ Carter moderated the Camp David Accords that established peace between Israel and Egypt.
^ Reagan enacted major cuts in taxes and social spending.
^ While the Republican primaries were a serious contest in the early stages, George H. W. Bush ultimately won 74.6% of the delegates, thus turning the key true, and he was nominated unanimously on the first ballot of the Republican convention.
^ The Iran–Contra affair was not directly linked to Reagan, thus keeping the key true.
^ Restoration of detente with the Soviet Union and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
^ Independent Ross Perot managed to poll more than 10% in many polls, and received 18.9% of the popular vote.
^ The early 1990s recession ended in March 1991, but the National Bureau of Economic Research did not officially declare the recession had ended until 50 days after the election, thus turning the key false.
^ Coalition victory in the Gulf War.
^ Ross Perot of the Reform Party received 8.4% of the popular vote.
^ Bill Clinton was impeached for lying about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.
^ Al Gore won the popular vote, but George W. Bush was declared the winner of the Electoral College and was therefore elected president. This is variously counted as a correct or incorrect prediction; see #Popular vote versus electoral vote.
^ The September 11 attacks and heavy U.S. casualties in the Iraq War.
^ The ouster of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the ouster and capture of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
^ While the Republican primaries were a serious contest in the early stages, McCain ultimately won 72.5% of the delegates, thus turning the key true, and he was nominated with 99.3% of the delegate vote on the first ballot of the Republican convention.
^ The Great Recession.
^ The stalemate in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
^ The Affordable Care Act.
^ The killing of Osama bin Laden and the ouster and killing of Muammar Gaddafi in the Libyan Civil War.
^ Obama exuded charisma in 2008 but he failed to have the same success in connecting with the voters in 2012.
^ Hillary Clinton was challenged by Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries: Clinton was nominated on the first ballot of the Democratic convention, but with only 59.7% of the delegate vote. Lichtman marked key 2 as undetermined in his final prediction for 2016 because Sanders had endorsed Clinton and did not challenge her at the convention. ^[50] He marked the key as false in the 2024 edition of his book.
^ Lichtman marked key 4 as false in his final prediction for 2016,^[50] saying that Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson was likely to receive over 5% of the popular vote, but he ultimately received only 3.3%. While third-party candidates received a total of 5.7% of the popular vote, Lichtman states that multiple third-party candidates receiving 5% or more of the vote cumulatively with no single candidate doing so will not turn the key false.^[29] He marked the key as true in the 2024 edition of his book.
^ While Lichtman predicted Hillary Clinton would be defeated in 2016 with six false keys against the Democrats and one key undetermined, his call on two of the keys differed in his final prediction versus his retrospective analysis in the 2024 edition of his book (the 2016 election was missing from the 2020 edition due to a misprint): in 2016, he marked key 2 (no primary contest) as undetermined and key 4 (no third party) as false, while in his 2024 book, key 2 is marked false and key 4 is marked true.
^ Trump lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president. This is variously counted as a correct or incorrect prediction; see #Popular vote versus electoral vote.
^ The COVID-19 recession.
^ Major tax reforms and executive orders withdrawing the U.S. from major international treaties, reversing Obama administration environmental protections, instituting new immigration policies, and redirecting military funds to a border wall.
^ The 2020 nationwide protests sparked by George Floyd's murder, the 2017 protests in Charlottesville, and various other incidents of social unrest.
^ Trump was impeached for pressuring the government of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, the Stormy Daniels payment scandal, and various other scandals in the Trump administration.
^ The Build Back Better Plan, the reversal of Trump administration executive orders, the United States rejoining the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization, and other substantive social legislation.
^ The stalemate in the war in Gaza, which has caused a humanitarian crisis, and Israel's engagement in a war with Lebanon and a conflict with Iran.
^ Biden brought together the coalition of the West following the Russian invasion of Ukraine to provide military aid to Ukraine, which prevented Russia from conquering the country and posing a threat to other NATO members.

References

^ Beyer, Elizabeth. "Meet Allan Lichtman, the professor who predicted the president (and the last 9)". USA TODAY. Retrieved 2024-08-20.
^ Smith, David (2024-04-26). "'A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose': can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-08-25.
^ Schechtman, Jeff (2024-05-17). "An Election Prophecy: How 13 Keys Unlock Presidential Election Outcomes". WhoWhatWhy. Retrieved 2024-08-26.
^ ^a ^b Padilla, Ramon (Oct 2, 2024). "Historian's election prediction system is (almost) always correct. Here's how it works". USA Today. Retrieved 2024-10-17.
^ Medeiros, Lauren (October 7, 2020). "This Historian Has a Fool-Proof System for Predicting the Next President". brandeis.edu. Brandeis University. Retrieved 2020-10-25.
^ Edelman, Gilad (2024-10-16). "The Man Who's Sure That Harris Will Win". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2024-10-16.
^ ^a ^b ^c Lichtman, Allan J. (2020-07-15). "The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2020". Harvard Data Science Review. 2 (4). doi:10.1162/99608f92.baaa8f68. ISSN 2644-2353.
^ Housman, Patty (2020-10-28). "Does Allan Lichtman stand by his "13 Keys" Prediction of a Joe Biden Win?". American University. Retrieved 2024-08-25.
^ "The 13 Keys to the White House". American University. 2016-05-04. Retrieved 2024-08-25.
^ Moscato & De Vries (2019), p. 53
^ Kashina (2014), Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography, p. 105
^ Kashina (2014), Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography, p. 107
^ ^a ^b A. J. Lichtman; V. I. Keilis-Borok (Nov 1981). "Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of integral social, economic, and political traits". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 78 (11): 7230–7234. Bibcode:1981PNAS...78.7230L. doi:10.1073/pnas.78.11.7230. PMC 349231. PMID 16593125.
^ BREAKING DOWN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY | Lichtman Live #32, retrieved 2024-03-24
^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 14
^ ^a ^b ^c Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2
^ Vedantam, Shankar (November 9, 2012). "What Earthquakes Can Teach Us About Elections". National Public Radio. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 26
^ Lichtman, Allan (1 Mar 2024). SCOTUS WILL DECIDE TRUMP'S IMMUNITY! | Lichtman Live #37 (Video). Retrieved 2024-08-27 – via YouTube.
^ "Harding Nominated for President on the Tenth Ballot at Chicago; Coolidge Chosen for Vice President". archive.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2024-03-16.
^ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections (compare national data by year)
^ ^a ^b Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 31
^ ^a ^b ^c Stevenson, Peter W. (September 23, 2016). "Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2023-09-23. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.
^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 9
^ Burns, Tobias (2022-07-30). "Is there a recession? Only the National Bureau of Economic Research gets to decide". The Hill. Retrieved 2024-09-28.
^ ^a ^b Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 38
^ Pitofsky, Marina. "Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says 2024 pick set off 'avalanche'". USA TODAY. Retrieved 2024-09-28.
^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 41
^ ^a ^b Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2
^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 12: "Trump is a consummate showman who commands media attention but appeals only to a narrow slice of the electorate rather than achieving broad appeal like Ronald Reagan."
^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 46
^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 10: "Although many Americans admired his service during the Vietnam War, including his imprisonment by the North Vietnamese for five and a half years, he had not led the nation through war like Ulysses S. Grant or Dwight D. Eisenhower."
^ It is possible that the keys corresponded with the elected president but not the popular vote winner in 1960, when there were nine false keys against the incumbent Republicans, indicating the defeat of Republican nominee Vice President Richard Nixon. Due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, the Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.
^ ^a ^b Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President
^ Allan Lichtman (2024-07-10). Professor SCHOOLS Cenk Uygur on Elections!. Retrieved 2024-07-11 – via YouTube.
^ ^a ^b ^c Allan J. Lichtman (2000). "ELECTION 2000: The Keys Point to Gore". Social Education. 64 (6): 376–377.
"Thus, on balance, barring a most improbable turn of events, the American people will ratify the record of the current Democratic administration this year and elect Al Gore president of the United States."
^ ^a ^b "2000 Presidential General Election Results". fec.gov. Archived from the original on September 12, 2012. Retrieved 2024-10-17.
^ Joseph Jaffe, Allan Lichtman (18 Nov 2020). The Keys to the White House - Distinguished Professor, Allan Lichtman (YouTube streaming video). Event occurs at 32m03s.
^ Lichtman (1990), The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, p. 6: "When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote"
^ Allan J. Lichtman (1999). "The Keys to Election 2000". Social Education. 63 (7): 422.
^ ^a ^b Allan J. Lichtman (2001). "Supplemental Report on the Racial Impact of the Rejection of Ballots Cast in Florida’s 2000 Presidential Election and in Response to the Statement of the Dissenting Commissioners and Report by Dr. John Lott Submitted to the United States Senate Committee on Rules in July 2001" in Voting Irregularities in Florida during the 2000 Presidential Election (US Commission of Civil Rights, 2001)
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Allan J. Lichtman (2016). "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016" Introduction xi
^ Lichtman (2024). Predicting the Next President (2024 edition). Chapter 12:
"In 2016, I made the first modification of the keys system since its inception in 1981. I did not change the keys themselves or the decision rule that any six or more negative keys predict the White House party’s defeat. Instead, in my final forecast for 2016, I predicted the winner of the presidency, e.g., the Electoral College, rather than the popular vote winner. In an interview with the Washington Post on September 23, 2016, I predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidency in November, revising my earlier forecast of a likely Democratic win."
^ ^a ^b Cillizza, Chris (Dec 31, 2016), "The professor who called the 2016 election was a giant Internet sensation", The Washington Post, retrieved 2024-10-17
^ ^a ^b Silver, Nate (August 5, 2020). "He Incorrectly Predicted That Trump Would Win The Popular Vote In 2016. But, Hey, Who Cares About Details Like That?". Twitter.
^ He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? (streaming video). New York Times. 5 Aug 2020. Archived from the original on 2021-12-21.
^ Lichtman (2012)
^ Basu, Rebecca (26 September 2016). "Historian's Prediction: Donald J. Trump to Win 2016 Election". American University. Archived from the original on 2017-06-19.
^ "1990-91 RECESSION IS OFFICIALLY OVER, PANEL DECLARES". Washington Post. 2024-02-27. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
^ ^a ^b Lichtman, Allan J. (2016-09-25). "Assuming History's a Good Guide, Trump's Going to Win". History News Network. Retrieved 2024-08-20.
^ ^a ^b ^c Allan J. Lichtman (Oct 2016). "The Keys to the White House" (PDF). Social Education. 80 (5): 256–258. As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e McFall, Marni Rose (2024-08-13). "How reliable is the 'Nostradamus' of US polling?". Newsweek. Retrieved 2024-08-21.
^ Raza, Nayeema; Knight, Kristopher (August 5, 2020). "He Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready to Call 2020". New York Times. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
^ "13 Keys to the White House (2024 Update) | Lichtman Live #51". 6 June 2024. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
^ "Allan Lichtman's 2024 Presidential Prediction | Lichtman Live #72". 5 September 2024. Retrieved 6 September 2024.
^ Lichtman, Allan (2024-09-05). "Harris or Trump? The Prophet of Presidential Elections Is Ready to Call the Race". The New York Times. Retrieved 2024-09-05.
^ "The 2020 Election: Forecasts from Three Classic Models". apsanet.org. American Political Science Association. Retrieved 2024-10-17.
^ ^a ^b ^c Silver, Nate (2011-08-31). "Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
^ McArdle, Megan (2011-08-30). "How Do Obama's Re-Election Chances Stack Up to Hoover's?". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2024-01-27.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Silver, Nate (2011-09-12). "'Keys to the White House' Historian Responds". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
^ Schuessler, Jennifer (2016-11-09). "Yes, He Thought Trump Would Win. No, He Didn't Use Hard Data". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-09-25.
^ Stevenson, Peter W. (November 9, 2016). "Professor who predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly called a Trump win in September". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2024-10-18.
^ ^a ^b Edelman, Gilad (2024-10-16). "The Man Who's Sure That Harris Will Win". theatlantic.com. The Atlantic. Retrieved 2024-10-16.
^ Allan J. Lichtman (2016). Predicting the Next President: the Keys to the White House. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield. p. 2. ISBN 978-1-4422-6920-0. "When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party prevails."
^ Cite error: The named reference refLichtman1999" was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^ Allan Lichtman (Aug 16, 2024). 2000: When the wrong man was elected President (YouTube).
^ Smith, Sydney (2020-08-25). "Did Professor Allan Lichtman correctly "predict" the winner of the 2016 presidential election? His own book says no. [Updated with response]". iMediaEthics. Retrieved 2024-11-05.
^ McFall, Marni Rose (2024-08-13). "How reliable is the 'Nostradamus' of US polling?". Newsweek. Retrieved 2024-08-21.

Bibliography

Allan J. Lichtman; Ken DeCell (1990) [1st edition published 1988]. The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency. Madison Books. ISBN 9780819170088.
Allan J. Lichtman (Oct 2016). "The Keys to the White House" (PDF). Social Education. 80 (5): 256–258.
Cuzan, Alfred G.; Armstrong, J. Scott (June 30, 2014). "Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections". Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. SSRN 913015.
Jones, Randall J. (2002). Who Will be in the White House?: Predicting Presidential Elections. ISBN 9780321087294.
Lichtman, A. J. (April–June 2008). "The Keys to the White House: An index Forecast for 2008". International Journal of Forecasting. 24 (2): 301–09. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.004.
Allan Lichtman (2020). Predicting the Next President (2020 ed.). Rowman & Littlefield. ISBN 978-1-5381-4866-2.
Allan J. Lichtman (October 2012). "The Keys to the White House" (PDF). Social Education. 76 (5): 233–235.
A. J. Lichtman; V. I. Keilis-Borok (Nov 1981). "Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of integral social, economic, and political traits". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 78 (11): 7230–7234. Bibcode:1981PNAS...78.7230L. doi:10.1073/pnas.78.11.7230. PMC 349231. PMID 16593125.
Allan J. Lichtman (2000). "ELECTION 2000: The Keys Point to Gore". Social Education. 64 (6): 376–377.
Allan J. Lichtman (April 1982). "How to Bet in '84". Washingtonian.
Allan J. Lichtman (1999). "The Keys to Election 2000". Social Education. 63 (7): 422.
Pablo Moscato; Natalie Jane de Vries (May 30, 2019). "Marketing Meets Data Science: Bridging the Gap". In Pablo Moscato; Natalie Jane de Vries (eds.). Business and Consumer Analytics: New Ideas. Springer. pp. 3–118. ISBN 978-3-030-06222-4.
Anna Kashina (2014). Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography. Ori Books. ISBN 978-1-940076-11-9.

External links

"13 Keys To The White House (July 2024 Update)" video

Category:1996 non-fiction books Category:Books about politics of the United States Category:United States presidential election predictions Category:Books by Allan Lichtman

[36] Due to a split between Northern Democrats and Southern Democrats over slavery, two Democratic conventions and 59 ballots were required to nominate Douglas.

[37] John C. Breckinridge of the Southern Democratic Party received 18.1% of the popular vote, and John Bell of the Constitutional Union Party received 12.6% of the popular vote, finishing second and third respectively in the Electoral College ahead of Douglas.

[38] Bleeding Kansas and widespread violent conflicts between abolitionists and supporters of slavery.

[39] Lichtman said that Lincoln was not viewed as charismatic by his contemporaries, and only became widely perceived as such posthumously.

[40] The Republicans lost House seats in the 1862 midterms, but due to Southern secession, the increase in their proportion of House seats compared to after the 1858 midterms gave them an effective net gain of 22 seats, thus turning the key true.

[41] The abolition of slavery and major wartime changes in national policy during the Civil War.

[42] The Civil War.

[43] Major Union battle victories in the Civil War, including the capture of Atlanta in September 1864.

[44] Lichtman considers the Republicans to be the incumbent party in 1868, despite sitting president Andrew Johnson being a Democrat, by reason of Johnson being elected on a Republican fusion ticket and heading an administration appointed by Lincoln.

[45] Reconstruction Acts.

[46] Widespread violent resistance in the South to Reconstruction.

[47] Lichtman considers the impeachment of Andrew Johnson to be the product of partisan politicking, thus keeping the key true.

[48] Union victory in the Civil War.

[49] This row shows the keys if the Democrats are considered to be the incumbent party in 1868, by reason of sitting president Andrew Johnson being a Democrat.

[50] The Democratic convention required 22 ballots to nominate Seymour.

[51] Continued violent resistance to Reconstruction in the South.

[52] The Treaty of Washington and rapprochment with the United Kingdom.

[53] The Republican convention required seven ballots to nominate Hayes.

[54] The Long Depression following the Panic of 1873.

[55] The Whiskey Ring scandal and various other scandals in the Grant administration.

[56] Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, but an Electoral Commission declared Hayes the winner of the Electoral College, and Hayes was therefore elected president.

[57] The Republican convention required 36 ballots to nominate Garfield.

[58] The end of Reconstruction.

[59] Due to a dispute between the Stalwarts led by sitting president Chester A. Arthur and the Half-Breeds led by Blaine, the Republican convention required four ballots to nominate Blaine.

[60] The Depression of 1882–1885.

[61] Widespread labor unrest, including the Great Southwest railroad strike of 1886 and the Haymarket affair.

[62] Cleveland won the popular vote, but Harrison won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.

[63] James G. Blaine and William McKinley challenged Harrison for the nomination: Harrison was nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the Republican convention, but with only 58.9% of the delegate vote.

[64] James B. Weaver of the Populist Party received 8.5% of the popular vote.

[65] The Sherman Silver Purchase Act, the Dependent and Disability Pension Act and the Sherman Antitrust Act.

[66] Widespread labor unrest, including the Homestead strike.

[67] Due to a dispute between the Bourbon wing of the Democrats led by sitting president Grover Cleveland and the populist wing of the Democrats led by Bryan, the Democratic convention required five ballots to nominate Bryan.

[68] The Panic of 1893 and a second panic in 1896.

[69] Widespread social unrest arising from the Panic of 1893, including the Coxey's Army protests, the Pullman Strike, and various other incidents of labor unrest.

[70] The Gold Standard Act, the McKinley Tariff, and other domestic measures alongside fundamental changes to international relations.

[71] U.S. victory in the Spanish–American War, the Treaty of Paris, and the Open Door Policy with China.

[72] The enactment of the Square Deal and significant changes in the relationship between the public and private sectors, including Roosevelt's directing the government to prosecute numerous antitrust suits.

[73] U.S. security of a lease on the Panama Canal Zone after supporting the separation of Panama from Colombia, U.S. victory in the Philippine–American War, and U.S. security of a lease on Guantánamo Bay after withdrawal from Cuba.

[74] The Panic of 1907 resulted in a drop of GDP growth large enough to turn the long-term economy key false, but the economy was in recovery during the election campaign, thus keeping the short-term economy key true.

[75] The Federal Meat Inspection Act, the Pure Food and Drug Act, and the Tillman Act of 1907.

[76] Roosevelt received the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating an end to the Russo-Japanese War and the First Moroccan Crisis.

[77] Bryan was seen as charismatic and inspirational in 1896 and 1900 but his voter appeal had faded and he had become the subject of frequent press ridicule in 1908.

[78] Former President Theodore Roosevelt challenged Taft for the nomination, leading to a split between conservatives and progressives: Taft was nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the Republican convention, but with only 52% of the delegate vote after progressives walked out.

[79] Theodore Roosevelt ran as the nominee of the Bull Moose Party and received 27.4% of the popular vote, finishing second ahead of Taft, and Eugene Debs of the Socialist Party received 6.2% of the popular vote.

[80] Taft finished third behind Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt.

[81] The Revenue Act of 1913, the Federal Reserve Act, and the Clayton Antitrust Act of 1914.

[82] The Sussex pledge kept the U.S. out of World War I.

[83] The Democratic convention required 44 ballots to nominate Cox.

[84] The Depression of 1920–1921.

[85] Significant wartime legislation, the establishment of prohibition, and nationwide voting rights for women.

[86] The Red Summer of 1919 and the First Red Scare, including widespread labor strikes and anarchist bombings.

[87] The Senate failed to ratify the Treaty of Versailles, leaving the United States out of the League of Nations.

[88] Allied victory in World War I.

[89] Robert M. La Follette of the Progressive Party received 16.6% of the popular vote.

[90] The reversal of Roosevelt/Wilson-style progressivism and a return to pro-business and conservative policies, including the Revenue Act of 1924, the Fordney–McCumber Tariff, and the Immigration Act of 1924.

[91] The Teapot Dome scandal and various other scandals in the Harding administration.

[92] Disarmament agreements reached during the Washington Naval Conference.

[93] The Kellogg–Briand Pact.

[94] The Great Depression.

[95] Widespread social unrest arising from the Great Depression, including the Bonus Army protest, labor strikes, and hunger marches.

[96] Enactment of the New Deal.

[97] Continuation of the New Deal, including the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 and the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938.

[98] Continuation of the New Deal and numerous policy changes to mobilize manpower and production in World War II.

[99] The attack on Pearl Harbor, early American losses in the Pacific War, and the botched Operation Market Garden.

[100] Major Allied battle victories in World War II, including Operation Overlord.

[101] Despite vocal opposition from Southern Democrats over civil rights, Truman was nominated for election on the first ballot of the Democratic convention with 76.8% of the delegate vote, thus turning the key true.

[102] Henry A. Wallace and Strom Thurmond both split from the Democrats, with Wallace running as the nominee of the Progressive Party and Thurmond running as the nominee of the Dixiecrats.

[103] Numerous foreign policy changes under the Truman Doctrine, the National Security Act of 1947, the Marshall Plan, and the desegregation of the military.

[104] The Soviet Union expanded its influence by creating the Eastern Bloc.

[105] Allied victory in World War II.

[106] The Democratic convention required three ballots to nominate Stevenson.

[107] The Democratic-controlled Senate investigated allegations of widespread corruption in the senior officials of the Truman administration.

[108] The fall of China to Communism and the stalemate in the Korean War.

[109] The establishment of NATO, the breaking of the Berlin Blockade, and success in containing the expansion of Soviet communism.

[110] Eisenhower brokered an armistice in the Korean War.

[111] The recession of 1960–1961.

[112] The launch of Sputnik, the fall of Cuba to Communism, and the U-2 incident.

[113] Due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, the Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Kennedy lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.

[114] Great Society programs, including the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964 and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

[115] The botched Bay of Pigs invasion.

[116] The resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

[117] Humphrey was nominated on the first ballot of the Democratic convention with 67.5% of the delegate vote, but there were deep and vocal party divisions over the Vietnam War, including strong opposition by the anti-Vietnam War wing of the Democrats to the nomination of Humphrey, thus turning the key false.

[118] George Wallace of the American Independent Party received 13.5% of the popular vote.

[119] Johnson's Great Society programs, including the war on poverty, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the Civil Rights Act of 1968, and the Social Security Amendments of 1965.

[120] Nationwide racial and anti-Vietnam War protests, the racial riots of summer 1967, and various other incidents of social unrest.

[121] The stalemate in the Vietnam War.

[122] The recession of 1969-1970 and the Nixon shock of 1971 resulted in a total drop of GDP growth large enough to turn the long-term economy key false, but the economy was in recovery during the election campaign, thus keeping the short-term economy key true.

[123] The Watergate scandal was regarded as the product of partisan politicking at the time of the election campaign, thus keeping the key true.

[124] Detente with the Soviet Union and a rapproachement with China following Nixon's visit.

[125] Ronald Reagan challenged Ford for the nomination: Ford was nominated for election on the first ballot of the Republican convention, but with only 52.6% of the delegate vote.

[126] The 1973-1975 recession resulted in a drop of GDP growth large enough to turn the long-term economy key false, but the economy was in recovery during the election campaign, thus keeping the short-term economy key true.

[127] The Watergate scandal gained significant bipartisan recognition, and resulted in Nixon's resignation.

[128] North Vietnamese victory in the Vietnam War and Khmer Rouge victory in the Cambodian Civil War.

[129] Ted Kennedy challenged Carter for the nomination: Carter was nominated for re-election on the first ballot of the Democratic convention, but with only 64% of the delegate vote.

[130] Independent John B. Anderson received 6.6% of the popular vote.

[131] The 1980 recession.

[132] The unresolved Iranian hostage crisis and the collapse of detente with the Soviet Union.

[133] Carter moderated the Camp David Accords that established peace between Israel and Egypt.

[147] Reagan enacted major cuts in taxes and social spending.

[148] While the Republican primaries were a serious contest in the early stages, George H. W. Bush ultimately won 74.6% of the delegates, thus turning the key true, and he was nominated unanimously on the first ballot of the Republican convention.

[149] The Iran–Contra affair was not directly linked to Reagan, thus keeping the key true.

[150] Restoration of detente with the Soviet Union and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

[151] Independent Ross Perot managed to poll more than 10% in many polls, and received 18.9% of the popular vote.

[152] The early 1990s recession ended in March 1991, but the National Bureau of Economic Research did not officially declare the recession had ended until 50 days after the election, thus turning the key false.

[154] Coalition victory in the Gulf War.

[155] Ross Perot of the Reform Party received 8.4% of the popular vote.

[156] Bill Clinton was impeached for lying about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.

[157] Al Gore won the popular vote, but George W. Bush was declared the winner of the Electoral College and was therefore elected president. This is variously counted as a correct or incorrect prediction; see #Popular vote versus electoral vote.

[158] The September 11 attacks and heavy U.S. casualties in the Iraq War.

[159] The ouster of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the ouster and capture of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

[160] While the Republican primaries were a serious contest in the early stages, McCain ultimately won 72.5% of the delegates, thus turning the key true, and he was nominated with 99.3% of the delegate vote on the first ballot of the Republican convention.

[161] The Great Recession.

[162] The stalemate in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[163] The Affordable Care Act.

[164] The killing of Osama bin Laden and the ouster and killing of Muammar Gaddafi in the Libyan Civil War.

[165] Obama exuded charisma in 2008 but he failed to have the same success in connecting with the voters in 2012.

[167] Hillary Clinton was challenged by Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries: Clinton was nominated on the first ballot of the Democratic convention, but with only 59.7% of the delegate vote. Lichtman marked key 2 as undetermined in his final prediction for 2016 because Sanders had endorsed Clinton and did not challenge her at the convention. ^[50] He marked the key as false in the 2024 edition of his book.

[168] Lichtman marked key 4 as false in his final prediction for 2016,^[50] saying that Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson was likely to receive over 5% of the popular vote, but he ultimately received only 3.3%. While third-party candidates received a total of 5.7% of the popular vote, Lichtman states that multiple third-party candidates receiving 5% or more of the vote cumulatively with no single candidate doing so will not turn the key false.^[29] He marked the key as true in the 2024 edition of his book.

[169] While Lichtman predicted Hillary Clinton would be defeated in 2016 with six false keys against the Democrats and one key undetermined, his call on two of the keys differed in his final prediction versus his retrospective analysis in the 2024 edition of his book (the 2016 election was missing from the 2020 edition due to a misprint): in 2016, he marked key 2 (no primary contest) as undetermined and key 4 (no third party) as false, while in his 2024 book, key 2 is marked false and key 4 is marked true.

[170] Trump lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president. This is variously counted as a correct or incorrect prediction; see #Popular vote versus electoral vote.

[173] The COVID-19 recession.

[174] Major tax reforms and executive orders withdrawing the U.S. from major international treaties, reversing Obama administration environmental protections, instituting new immigration policies, and redirecting military funds to a border wall.

[175] The 2020 nationwide protests sparked by George Floyd's murder, the 2017 protests in Charlottesville, and various other incidents of social unrest.

[176] Trump was impeached for pressuring the government of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, the Stormy Daniels payment scandal, and various other scandals in the Trump administration.

[178] The Build Back Better Plan, the reversal of Trump administration executive orders, the United States rejoining the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization, and other substantive social legislation.

[179] The stalemate in the war in Gaza, which has caused a humanitarian crisis, and Israel's engagement in a war with Lebanon and a conflict with Iran.

[181] Biden brought together the coalition of the West following the Russian invasion of Ukraine to provide military aid to Ukraine, which prevented Russia from conquering the country and posing a threat to other NATO members.

[1] Beyer, Elizabeth. "Meet Allan Lichtman, the professor who predicted the president (and the last 9)". USA TODAY. Retrieved 2024-08-20.

[2] Smith, David (2024-04-26). "'A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose': can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-08-25.

[3] Schechtman, Jeff (2024-05-17). "An Election Prophecy: How 13 Keys Unlock Presidential Election Outcomes". WhoWhatWhy. Retrieved 2024-08-26.

[padilla-4] Padilla, Ramon (Oct 2, 2024). "Historian's election prediction system is (almost) always correct. Here's how it works". USA Today. Retrieved 2024-10-17.

[brandeis-5] Medeiros, Lauren (October 7, 2020). "This Historian Has a Fool-Proof System for Predicting the Next President". brandeis.edu. Brandeis University. Retrieved 2020-10-25.

[edelman-6] Edelman, Gilad (2024-10-16). "The Man Who's Sure That Harris Will Win". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2024-10-16.

[hdsr-7] Lichtman, Allan J. (2020-07-15). "The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2020". Harvard Data Science Review. 2 (4). doi:10.1162/99608f92.baaa8f68. ISSN 2644-2353.

[8] Housman, Patty (2020-10-28). "Does Allan Lichtman stand by his "13 Keys" Prediction of a Joe Biden Win?". American University. Retrieved 2024-08-25.

[9] "The 13 Keys to the White House". American University. 2016-05-04. Retrieved 2024-08-25.

[10] Moscato & De Vries (2019), p. 53

[11] Kashina (2014), Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography, p. 105

[12] Kashina (2014), Vladimir Keilis-Borok: A Biography, p. 107

[:7-13] A. J. Lichtman; V. I. Keilis-Borok (Nov 1981). "Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of integral social, economic, and political traits". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 78 (11): 7230–7234. Bibcode:1981PNAS...78.7230L. doi:10.1073/pnas.78.11.7230. PMC 349231. PMID 16593125.

[14] BREAKING DOWN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY | Lichtman Live #32, retrieved 2024-03-24

[15] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 14

[Lichtman_2020-16] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2

[17] Vedantam, Shankar (November 9, 2012). "What Earthquakes Can Teach Us About Elections". National Public Radio. Retrieved October 2, 2024.

[Licthman2020chpt2-18] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 26

[19] Lichtman, Allan (1 Mar 2024). SCOTUS WILL DECIDE TRUMP'S IMMUNITY! | Lichtman Live #37 (Video). Retrieved 2024-08-27 – via YouTube.

[20] "Harding Nominated for President on the Tenth Ballot at Chicago; Coolidge Chosen for Vice President". archive.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2024-03-16.

[21] Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections (compare national data by year)

[:0-22] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 31

[WaPosept2016-23] Stevenson, Peter W. (September 23, 2016). "Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2023-09-23. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.

[24] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 9

[25] Burns, Tobias (2022-07-30). "Is there a recession? Only the National Bureau of Economic Research gets to decide". The Hill. Retrieved 2024-09-28.

[Lichtman_2020_p._38-26] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 38

[pitofsky-27] Pitofsky, Marina. "Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says 2024 pick set off 'avalanche'". USA TODAY. Retrieved 2024-09-28.

[:1-28] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 41

[2020chpt2-29] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2

[30] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 12: "Trump is a consummate showman who commands media attention but appeals only to a narrow slice of the electorate rather than achieving broad appeal like Ronald Reagan."

[31] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 2, p. 46

[32] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President, chpt. 10: "Although many Americans admired his service during the Vietnam War, including his imprisonment by the North Vietnamese for five and a half years, he had not led the nation through war like Ulysses S. Grant or Dwight D. Eisenhower."

[33] It is possible that the keys corresponded with the elected president but not the popular vote winner in 1960, when there were nine false keys against the incumbent Republicans, indicating the defeat of Republican nominee Vice President Richard Nixon. Due to discrepancies with how Alabama's unpledged electors are counted, the Congressional Quarterly and other sources report that Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.

[Lichtman2020-34] Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President

[35] Allan Lichtman (2024-07-10). Professor SCHOOLS Cenk Uygur on Elections!. Retrieved 2024-07-11 – via YouTube.

[Lichtman2000-134] Allan J. Lichtman (2000). "ELECTION 2000: The Keys Point to Gore". Social Education. 64 (6): 376–377.
"Thus, on balance, barring a most improbable turn of events, the American people will ratify the record of the current Democratic administration this year and elect Al Gore president of the United States."

[autogenerated2000-135] "2000 Presidential General Election Results". fec.gov. Archived from the original on September 12, 2012. Retrieved 2024-10-17.

[136] Joseph Jaffe, Allan Lichtman (18 Nov 2020). The Keys to the White House - Distinguished Professor, Allan Lichtman (YouTube streaming video). Event occurs at 32m03s.

[137] Lichtman (1990), The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, p. 6: "When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote"

[138] Allan J. Lichtman (1999). "The Keys to Election 2000". Social Education. 63 (7): 422.

[commission-139] Allan J. Lichtman (2001). "Supplemental Report on the Racial Impact of the Rejection of Ballots Cast in Florida’s 2000 Presidential Election and in Response to the Statement of the Dissenting Commissioners and Report by Dr. John Lott Submitted to the United States Senate Committee on Rules in July 2001" in Voting Irregularities in Florida during the 2000 Presidential Election (US Commission of Civil Rights, 2001)

[keys2016-140] Allan J. Lichtman (2016). "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016" Introduction xi

[141] Lichtman (2024). Predicting the Next President (2024 edition). Chapter 12:
"In 2016, I made the first modification of the keys system since its inception in 1981. I did not change the keys themselves or the decision rule that any six or more negative keys predict the White House party’s defeat. Instead, in my final forecast for 2016, I predicted the winner of the presidency, e.g., the Electoral College, rather than the popular vote winner. In an interview with the Washington Post on September 23, 2016, I predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidency in November, revising my earlier forecast of a likely Democratic win."

[cillizza-142] Cillizza, Chris (Dec 31, 2016), "The professor who called the 2016 election was a giant Internet sensation", The Washington Post, retrieved 2024-10-17

[Silver2020-143] Silver, Nate (August 5, 2020). "He Incorrectly Predicted That Trump Would Win The Popular Vote In 2016. But, Hey, Who Cares About Details Like That?". Twitter.

[NYT2020YouTube-144] He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? (streaming video). New York Times. 5 Aug 2020. Archived from the original on 2021-12-21.

[145] Lichtman (2012)

[146] Basu, Rebecca (26 September 2016). "Historian's Prediction: Donald J. Trump to Win 2016 Election". American University. Archived from the original on 2017-06-19.

[153] "1990-91 RECESSION IS OFFICIALLY OVER, PANEL DECLARES". Washington Post. 2024-02-27. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2024-09-27.

[final2016-166] Lichtman, Allan J. (2016-09-25). "Assuming History's a Good Guide, Trump's Going to Win". History News Network. Retrieved 2024-08-20.

[2016-paper-171] Allan J. Lichtman (Oct 2016). "The Keys to the White House" (PDF). Social Education. 80 (5): 256–258. As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes.

[:8-172] McFall, Marni Rose (2024-08-13). "How reliable is the 'Nostradamus' of US polling?". Newsweek. Retrieved 2024-08-21.

[177] Raza, Nayeema; Knight, Kristopher (August 5, 2020). "He Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready to Call 2020". New York Times. Retrieved September 7, 2024.

[LichtmanLive-180] "13 Keys to the White House (2024 Update) | Lichtman Live #51". 6 June 2024. Retrieved 7 June 2024.

[Allan_Lichtman's_2024_Presidential_Prediction-182] "Allan Lichtman's 2024 Presidential Prediction | Lichtman Live #72". 5 September 2024. Retrieved 6 September 2024.

[183] Lichtman, Allan (2024-09-05). "Harris or Trump? The Prophet of Presidential Elections Is Ready to Call the Race". The New York Times. Retrieved 2024-09-05.

[184] "The 2020 Election: Forecasts from Three Classic Models". apsanet.org. American Political Science Association. Retrieved 2024-10-17.

[538aug2011-185] Silver, Nate (2011-08-31). "Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2023-09-25.

[186] McArdle, Megan (2011-08-30). "How Do Obama's Re-Election Chances Stack Up to Hoover's?". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2024-01-27.

[538sep2011-187] Silver, Nate (2011-09-12). "'Keys to the White House' Historian Responds". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2023-09-25.

[:2-188] Schuessler, Jennifer (2016-11-09). "Yes, He Thought Trump Would Win. No, He Didn't Use Hard Data". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-09-25.

[:3-189] Stevenson, Peter W. (November 9, 2016). "Professor who predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly called a Trump win in September". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2024-10-18.

[:4-190] Edelman, Gilad (2024-10-16). "The Man Who's Sure That Harris Will Win". theatlantic.com. The Atlantic. Retrieved 2024-10-16.

[:6-191] Allan J. Lichtman (2016). Predicting the Next President: the Keys to the White House. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield. p. 2. ISBN 978-1-4422-6920-0. "When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party prevails."

[refLichtman1999"-192] Cite error: The named reference refLichtman1999" was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

[193] Allan Lichtman (Aug 16, 2024). 2000: When the wrong man was elected President (YouTube).

[194] Smith, Sydney (2020-08-25). "Did Professor Allan Lichtman correctly "predict" the winner of the 2016 presidential election? His own book says no. [Updated with response]". iMediaEthics. Retrieved 2024-11-05.

[:82-195] McFall, Marni Rose (2024-08-13). "How reliable is the 'Nostradamus' of US polling?". Newsweek. Retrieved 2024-08-21.

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