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Nigeria, with the highest average per capita GDP ($1,467 PPP, 1980-2008) in the following group of nine sub-Saharan African nations, is likely in 2015 to have made the poorest performance on achieving the first five United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDG), with an average achievement of 24.5%, while Ethiopia, with the second-lowest per capita income ($560) in the sample is forecast to have the highest MDG achievement rate (95%):

	Predicted % Achievement of MDG Target by 2015 (summary of following tables)							Financial flows per capita
	MDG1, Target 1 (Halve Poverty)	MDG1, Target 3 (Halve hunger)	MDG2 (100% Primary School Enrolment)	MDG3 (100% Female School Enrolment)	MDG4 (2/3 decrease in U5MR)	MDG5 (3/4 decrease Mat.Mort.)	Average, MDG 1-5	Average annual ODA + FDI + Remittances per capita, 1980-2008 (1) (constant 2004 US$) (World Bank)	Annual Capital Flight per capita, 1980-2008, 2004 $ (2)	(ODA+FDI+Remitt.) - Capital Flight (const. 2004$)	Average GDP per cap., PPP, 1980-2008, constant 2005 $ (1)
Burkina Faso	94.2%	109.0%	76.6%	77.4%	61.9%	55.2%	74.5%	$67.61	$4.33	$63.28	$830.94
Ethiopia	132.5%	114.7%	100.0%	100.0%	86.9%	66.3%	95.4%	$23.23	$10.13	$13.10	$560.46
Ghana	103.9%	184.6%	59.2%	68.2%	65.1%	44.7%	76.3%	$53.59	$9.44	$44.15	$989.89
Kenya	144.5%	31.3%	100.0%	100.0%	37.9%	15.7%	68.3%	$48.89	$6.46	$42.43	$1,336.82
Mali	131.1%	90.2%	100.0%	100.0%	65.0%	34.5%	82.0%	$77.73	$23.49	$54.24	$773.18
Mozambique	59.8%	112.9%	100.0%	100.0%	72.4%	-113.0%	49.2%	$79.98	$11.93	$68.05	$472.92
Nigeria	35.1%	134.7%	24.6%	33.5%	34.9%	-55.6%	24.5%	$31.81	$57.75	-$25.94	$1,466.58
Uganda	72.2%	68.8%	100.0%	100.0%	54.7%	65.2%	78.1%	$45.73	$8.65	$37.07	$700.77
Zambia	6.8%	-46.9%	100.0%	100.0%	56.1%	-2.8%	46.6%	$116.89	$31.47	$85.42	$1,199.28
Sources:
(1) World Bank. "World Development Indicators", databank.worldbank.org. Accessed September 2010.
(2) Global Financial Integrity. 2010. "Illicit Financial Flows from Africa: Hidden Resource for Development", Dev Kar & Devon Cartwright-Smith, pp. 34-36, Real Illicit Financial Flows (CED+GER): 1970-2008 ($US millions 2004 deflated) http://www.gfip.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=300&Itemid=75

Why the enormous Ethiopia-Nigeria discrepancy when they have nearly equivalent Human Development Index rankings (Nigeria: 0.511 & rank 158th, Ethiopia: 0.411 & rank 171st in 2007)? One possible explanation is the extent of ethnic diversity: according to the Ethnologue database of world languages, there are 521 languages currently spoken in Nigeria (about 3.3 languages per one million inhabitants) compared to Ethiopia's 88 (1.0 language per million Ethiopians); Nigeria is hence three times more culturally diverse than Ethiopia, and thus more challenging to govern (Ethnologue Languages of the World, Statistical Summaries, http://www.ethnologue.com/ethno_docs/distribution.asp?by=country).

Another interpretation is the "resource curse" of oil. Nigeria is the only nation in the above nine-nation set in which, on a per capita basis averaged over the period 1980-2008 in US dollars, the "illicit" outflows of capital ("capital flight", $58) exceed the sum of inflows from foreign aid ($13 per Nigerian), foreign investment ($6), and home remittances by expatriate workers ($11) by nearly double ($58 lost vs. $30 gained per Nigerian). For every dollar of aid money, foreign investment and expatriate Nigerian workers' earnings sent back to Nigeria, two dollars is fleeing the country for foreign bank accounts. Restricting the time window to only the 2000s, the situation is even worse: for every $66 annually entering Nigeria in aid, investment and remittances, $132 has exited via capital flight.

	Annual Average Flows per Nigerian (US dollars)
	1980-89	1990-99	2000-08	1980-2008
Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$)	$4.81	$10.71	$24.13	$12.84
Net official development assistance received (current US$)	$0.91	$2.05	$17.55	$6.47
Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, received (current US$)	$0.14	$6.98	$27.07	$10.86
Sum of per capita FDI Net inflows+ Net ODA+ Workers' remittances (current US$ per capita)	$5.86	$19.74	$69.37	$30.36
Sum of per capita FDI Net inflows+ Net ODA+ Workers' remittances (constant 2004 US$ per capita)	$8.76	$23.90	$66.20	$31.81
Real Illicit Financial Flows: 1980-2008 ($US millions 2004 deflated)	$31.37	$17.71	$131.54	$57.75
(Aid, Investment, Remittances) Inflows minus Illicit Financial Outflows	-$22.61	$6.19	-$65.34	-$25.94
Sources
World Bank, World Development Indicators except for:
Illicit Financial Flows: Global Financial Integrity: Illicit Financial Flows from Africa: Hidden Resource for Development, Dev Kar & Devon Cartwright-Smith, Global Financial Integrity, March 2010, http://www.gfip.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=300&Itemid=75

For every dollar of aid money, foreign investment and expatriate Nigerian workers' earnings sent back to Nigeria, two dollars is fleeing the country for foreign bank accounts. By contrast, for the other eight nations, illicit capital flight is one-tenth to one-half the sum of the other three inflows; for every dollar that is stolen out of those countries' economies, between two and ten dollars enters the country in aid, investment and remittances. The temptation for squandering and diversion is simply too great when entry and exit taps are controlled by a tiny minority. This is not to paint all African leaders as corrupt diverters of international development assistance, as is apparently the perception of some readers, based on comments posted to the Globe and Mail article "Stephen Harper does the UN" by Gerald Caplan (September 17, 2010) "Stephen Harper does the UN" (17 September 2010). The economic welfare of Russian, Venezuelan, Algerian, Syrian, Guyanese and Gabonese societies too may be impaired by their extreme dependence on oil exports: "GNI is too low in these countries in the sense that they are achieving extremely low rates of return on their produced, human, and institutional capital. This is a classic symptom of the resource curse..." (World Bank. 2006. "Where Is The Wealth Of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21st Century", p. 29).

Each country's individual performance prediction is tabulated below by each goal.

MDG1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger. Target 1. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day
Measurement variable: World Development Indicators, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP, 2005) (% of population)
	1990 (or actual measurement year)	2010 (or actual measurement year)	Projected to 2015 at 1990:current (linear) trend	Millennium Development Goal Target	Projected % Achievement of Target in 2015
Burkina Faso	71.2%	56.5%	41.6%	39.3%	94.2%
	1994	2003
Ethiopia	60.5%	39.0%	25.2%	37.3%	132.5%
	1995	2005
Ghana	49.4%	30.0%	23.0%	24.0%	103.9%
	1989	2006
Kenya	38.4%	19.7%	11.8%	21.3%	144.5%
	1992	2005
Mali	86.1%	51.4%	35.0%	50.7%	131.1%
	1994	2006
Mozambique	81.3%	74.7%	63.0%	44.9%	59.8%
	1997	2003
Nigeria	68.5%	64.4%	59.2%	35.9%	35.1%
	1996	2004
Uganda	68.7%	51.5%	43.1%	33.7%	72.2%
	1989	2005
Zambia	65.3%	64.3%	63.3%	32.8%	6.8%
	1993	2004

MDG1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger. Target 3. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger
Measurement variable: World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)
	1990 (or actual measurement year)	2010 (or actual measurement year)	Projected to 2015 at 1990:current (linear) trend	Millennium Development Goal Target	Projected % Achievement of Target in 2015
Burkina Faso	14.0%	9.0%	6.8%	7.4%	109.0%
	1992	2006
Ethiopia	71.0%	44.0%	32.3%	37.9%	114.7%
	1992	2006
Ghana	34.0%	8.0%	3.2%	20.5%	184.6%
	1992	2006
Kenya	33.0%	30.0%	28.2%	16.7%	31.3%
	1992	2006
Mali	14.0%	10.0%	8.1%	7.3%	90.2%
	1992	2006
Mozambique	59.0%	37.0%	27.4%	31.5%	112.9%
	1992	2006
Nigeria	15.0%	8.0%	5.3%	8.2%	134.7%
	1992	2006
Uganda	19.0%	15.0%	12.9%	9.8%	68.8%
	1992	2006
Zambia	40.0%	45.0%	48.5%	19.7%	-46.9%
	1992	2006

MDG2. Achieve Universal Primary Education Ensure all children, girls and boys, able to complete full primary schooling
Measurement variable: World Development Indicators, School enrollment, primary (% net)
	1990 (or actual measurement year)	2010 (or actual measurement year)	Projected to 2015 at 1990:current (linear) trend	Millennium Development Goal Target	Projected % Achievement of Target in 2015
Burkina Faso	27.3%	60.1%	83.3%	100.0%	76.6%
	1991	2008
Ethiopia	24.0%	78.2%	127.2%	100.0%	100.0%
	1991	2008
Ghana	56.4%	73.9%	82.6%	100.0%	59.2%
	1991	2008
Kenya	56.4%	81.5%	105.5%	100.0%	100.0%
	1998	2008
Mali	23.1%	71.5%	113.8%	100.0%	100.0%
	1991	2008
Mozambique	42.1%	79.9%	104.0%	100.0%	100.0%
	1991	2008
Nigeria	53.8%	61.4%	65.6%	100.0%	24.6%
	1991	2007
Uganda	51.2%	97.1%	126.4%	100.0%	100.0%
	1991	2008
Zambia	71.4%	95.2%	116.5%	100.0%	100.0%
	1998	2008

MDG3. Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015
Measurement variable: World Development Indicators, School enrollment, primary, female (% net)
	1991 (or actual measurement year)	2008 (or actual measurement year)	Projected to 2015 at 1990:current (linear) trend	Millennium Development Goal Target	Projected % Achievement of Target in 2015
Burkina Faso	21.5%	55.7%	82.5%	100.0%	77.4%
	1991	2008
Ethiopia	20.5%	75.4%	128.8%	100.0%	100.0%
	1991	2008
Ghana	53.1%	74.4%	85.5%	100.0%	68.2%
	1991	2008
Kenya	56.7%	82.0%	106.3%	100.0%	100.0%
	1998	2008
Mali	17.4%	65.4%	112.9%	100.0%	100.0%
	1991	2008
Mozambique	37.0%	77.3%	104.8%	100.0%	100.0%
	1991	2008
Nigeria	46.8%	58.3%	65.0%	100.0%	33.5%
	1991	2007
Uganda	46.4%	98.3%	134.0%	100.0%	100.0%
	1991	2008
Zambia	78.7%	95.8%	103.9%	100.0%	100.0%
	1991	2008

MDG4. Reduce Child Mortality: Two-thirds reduction in Under-five Mortality Rate
Measurement variable: Number of children under age 5 who die per 1,000 children (Rajaratnam JK. 2010. Lancet 375: 1988-2008)
	1990	2010	Projected to 2015 at 1990:current (linear) trend	Millennium Development Goal Target	Projected % Achievement of Target in 2015
Burkina Faso	204.7	133.7	120.2	68.2	61.9%
Ethiopia	201.9	101.0	84.9	67.3	86.9%
Ghana	122.2	77.5	69.2	40.7	65.1%
Kenya	103.8	82.2	77.5	34.6	37.9%
Mali	254.0	161.2	143.9	84.7	65.0%
Mozambique	226.6	133.7	117.2	75.5	72.4%
Nigeria	194.1	157.0	148.9	64.7	34.9%
Uganda	167.8	116.7	106.6	55.9	54.7%
Zambia	172.8	118.8	108.2	57.6	56.1%

MDG5. Improve Maternal Health 75% reduction Maternal Mortality Rate, MMR
Measurement variable: Number of women who die during childbirth per 100,000 live deliveries (Hogan MC. 2010. Lancet 375: 1609-1623)
	1990	2008	Projected to 2015 at 1990:current (linear) trend	Millennium Development Goal Target	Projected % Achievement of Target in 2015
Burkina Faso	488	332	285.8	122.0	55.2%
Ethiopia	968	590	486.7	242.0	66.3%
Ghana	549	409	364.8	137.3	44.7%
Kenya	452	413	398.8	113.0	15.7%
Mali	831	670	616.2	207.8	34.5%
Mozambique	385	599	711.3	96.3	-113.0%
Nigeria	473	608	670.4	118.3	-55.6%
Uganda	571	352	291.6	142.8	65.2%
Zambia	594	603	606.5	148.5	-2.8%
East Africa	690	508	451.0	172.5	46.2%
West Africa	582	629	648.3	145.5	-15.2%

In 2010, the United Nations Development Programme published hybrid Human Development Index (HDI) indicators covering the period from 1970 to 2010. By this measure, Nigeria's development performance was much more typical of its African peers than from the Millennium Development Goals examined above. Within the nine-nation African cohort, Nigeria's hybrid HDI rose from fifth-highest in 1970 (0.297) to fourth-highest in 2010 (0.478). When separated into the three components over these four decades, Nigeria went from a rank of fifth to third for Education (combined primary, secondary and tertiary level enrolment), from second to first for Income (the logarithm of income per capita), while remaining third-lowest for Health (life expectancy).

Data source: