User:Czajkama/sandbox

Article evaluation

The US Census Bureau article on Wikipedia is part of several Wikiprojects, including: Wikiprojects United States/ Government, United States Public Policy, Economics and Elections and Referendums, and all are C-rated. Looking at the WIkipedia article and comparing it to the information we've learned in class, I am under the impression that some important information is underrepresented. For example, there is no information about the type of the census in the US, is it de facto or de jure? I think it would be important to mention that there are two forms included in US census the long and the short form, also historical information about how the questions in the census evolved are not included in the article. On the other hand, there is a long section which talks about the data stewardship, and issues with keeping the information confidential. This section also mentions that possible unclear results in the census are results from the political pressures between the parties, giving an example of the undercount of some ethnic groups, I think this introduces some bias. The problem of the coverage error is a broader issue which result from the multiple different factors, which are not mentioned.

Checking the sources, I've noticed that there are some sections which need sources to be added, for example the section on the ongoing surveys is marked for verification by Wikipedia. I've also noticed that in the section on organizational structure there is some information about the 2000 census cost of $4.5 billion, however there is no source, the information about the estimated cost of the 2010 census is also missing a source. Another section which lists the uses of the census data is not linked to any sources.

The talk page addressed some issues with the sources as well, which seems to be corrected now, for example the source for the section on census regions and divisions. I've noticed some suggestions on the talk page have been implemented like adding the map for regions and subdivisions, on the other hand there were some suggestions on implementing changes to the article that were not added, for example the note about moving the census bureau to the White House in 2009. Nice work on this evaluation - very thoughtful - Prof Hammad

'Ageing of Europe': planned contributions

I would like to contribute to the article by adding information about the European countries. I've noticed there is only 9 countries included, and I would like to add at least 2 more, I am thinking about Sweden and Greece, which are some of the top countries in terms of percentage of population aged 65 and older. I am also planning to make edits to the countries already listed in the article, for example France is talking about high fertility rates, while there is no mention about the aging population and the prediction of the age structures in the future. Browsing through the article and the Talk page I've also noticed some sources missing, and would like to look for those to help make the article more reliable. There is also a lot of contradicting information regarding which country has the oldest median in their population, I am thinking it could result from different sources and the timing the info was obtained, I would try to find sources with the latest statistics and unify it throughout the article.

I've also decided to contribute to the section of the article that is talking about the causes of ageing.

Sources for 'Ageing of Europe'

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Ageing 2017' (ST/ESA/SER.A/408)

Over 27 million people aged 80 and over in the EU. (2017, September 30). Retrieved March 14, 2018, from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/-/EDN-20170930-1

Population structure and ageing. (2017, June). Retrieved March 14, 2018, from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Population_structure_and_ageing#Further_Eurostat_information

Weeks, J. R. (2016). Population: an introduction to concepts and issues. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning.

ARTZROUNI, M., & EASTERLIN, R. (1982). BIRTH HISTORY, AGE STRUCTURE, AND POST WORLD WAR II FERTILITY IN TEN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: AN EXPLORATORY EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS. Genus, 38(3/4), 81-99. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org.aurarialibrary.idm.oclc.org/stable/29788367

Article Edits: Ageing of Europe ( causes)

Causes

Main article: Population ageing

Population ageing in Europe is caused primarily by three factors: declining fertility rates, increased life expectancy and migration .

The causes of population ageing vary among countries.

Fertility

Trends in Total Fertility 1950-2010

The high number of people aged 60 and more in Europe is the result of high fertility rates, which occured in years 1950-1960. The period after the end of the World War II, which was characterized by good social and economic status of the population in the child bearing age and resulted in a "baby boom" .

Current low fertility levels also contribute to the ageing of Europe. As the fertility levels drop, the age structure of the population changes, and the number of the younger groups decrease in relation to the older age groups.Europe's fertility rates have been less than the 2.1 children per woman (standard) replacement level and are projected to remain below the replacement level in the future.

Mortality

People are living longer with projections of average life expectancy reaching 84.6 years for men and 89.1 for women by 2060, an increase of 7.9 years of life for men and 6.6 years of life for women compared to 2010. The longer life span results in the changing age structure in the population by increasing the numbers of people in the older age group. The average life expectancy of the older population will depend on the progress in medicine to prevent the diseases, which are leading causes of death. Among top three causes of death are ischemic heart disease, stroke and COPD.

Migration

People immigrating and emigrating from the country will cause fluctuations, in particular, in the size of the working age group of the population . If there are high numbers of young immigrants coming to the country it will result in decrease of the proportion of the ageing population. In following countries the immigration is projected to slow the population ageing: Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Denmark, Austria and United Kingdom. Emigration, would make the opposite effect on population aging by having the people in the working age leaving the country, and accelerating the aging of population as the result . Increase of the aging population caused by emigration is projected to occur in Latvia.

I can see that you've thoughtfully added some important info to multiple sections of this article - very nice. Are there any places in the article that you think you could add more information that we've discussed in class? -Prof H

I will see if I can add some information about the "feminization of the old age" or the "Demographic Windfall Effect"

Article Edits: Ageing of Europe (Countries)

Belgium

Main article: Demographics of Belgium

Population pyramid of Belgium 2016

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) High Council of Finance's (HCF) Study Committee on Aging (SCA) predicted in 2007 that Belgium's population will increase by 5% by 2050 due to immigration, a higher fertility rate, and longer life expectancy. However, the IMF's study indicates Belgium's elderly population will increase by over 63% to over 25% of the country's overall population.

The Belgian government spent 9.1% of its GDP on pensions and 7.1% on health care expenses in 2005. By 2050 total social spending is expected to increase by 5.8%, assuming there is no change in the age of retirement. Most of this higher social spending comes from pension and health care, rising by 3.9% to 13.0% of GDP and 3.7% to 10.8% of GDP respectively.

The decline in the workforce will partly compensate by lowering unemployment which will in turn lower the cost of childcare. The IMF also predicts that by 2050 the percentage of Belgian population over the age of 65 will increase from 16% to 25%.

In 2017 24.6% of the population of Belgium was over 60 years old, and it is projected to increase to 32.4% by the year 2050.The life expectancy at birth in 2010-2015 is projected to be 83 years for females and 78years for males.

France

Main article: Demographics of France

Population pyramid of France 2016

France overtook Ireland as the European Union member state with the highest birth-rate in 2007. Projected birth rates indicate that France will have the largest population in the EU by 2050, with 75 million citizens, overtaking Germany, but only the second largest in Europe, with the UK having a larger estimated population. In 2011, France was the only European Union member with a fertility rate at replacement level, with an average rate of 2.08 children per woman while Ireland's fertility rate declined to 2.01 children per woman, slightly below replacement level. This reason for an increase in children are due to the government family benefits that are provided to these families. They receive an allowance based off income and how many children they have in that household.

"The total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.99 children per woman in 2013 from 2.01 in 2012 and 2.03 in 2010. A rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered necessary to keep the population growing excluding migration."

For the year 2017 the percentage of population aged 60 or older was 25.7%, and projected to increase by 2050 to 32.2%. The life expectancy at birth in 2010-2015 is projected to be 85 years for females and 79 years for males.

Germany

Main articles: Germans, Demographics of Germany, and Social issues in Germany

Population of German territories 1800–2000 and immigrant population from 1975 to 2000

Population pyramid of Germany 2016

With 82 million inhabitants in January 2010, Germany is the most populous country in the European Union. However, its fertility rate of 1.42 children per woman is one of the lowest in the world, and the federal statistics office estimates the population will shrink to between 65 and 70 million by 2060 (65 million assuming a net migration of +100,000 per year; 70 million assuming a net migration of +200,000 per year). With death rates continuously exceeding low-level birth rates, Germany is one of a few countries for which the demographic transition model would require a fifth stage in order to capture its demographic development. In Germany, the population in some regions, especially the former Communist East Germany, is undergoing a current decline and depopulization. The Bauhaus Dessau Foundation came up with comprehensive plans to tear down numerous buildings and replace them with parks in various cities and the Government of Germany developed a plan to reduce at great expense the width of sewer pipes in various cities. The southern states however have net gain in population and Germany as the economic powerhouse of the EU is attracting immigrants overall.

In 2017 28.0% of the population of Germany was over 60 years old, and it is projected to increase to 37.6% by the year 2050.The life expectancy at birth in 2010-2015 is projected to be 83 years for females and 78 years for males.

Italy

Main article: Demographics of Italy

Population pyramid of Italy 2016

Under current fertility rates, Italy will need to raise its retirement age to 77 or admit 2.2 million immigrants annually to maintain its worker to retiree ratio. About 25% of Italian women do not have children while another 25% only have one child.

The region of Liguria in northwestern Italy now has the highest ratio of elderly to youth in the world. Ten percent of Liguria's schools closed in the first decade of the 21st century. The city of Genoa, one of Italy's largest and the capital of Liguria, is declining faster than most European cities with a death rate of 13.7 deaths per 1,000 people, almost twice the birth rate, 7.7 births per 1,000 people, as of 2005.

The Italian government has tried to limit and reverse the trend by offering financial incentives to couples who have children, and by increasing immigration. While fertility has remained stagnant, immigration has minimised the drop in the workforce.

In 2017 29.4% of the population of Italy was over 60 years old, and it is projected to increase to 40.3% by the year 2050.The life expectancy at birth in 2010-2015 is projected to be 85 years for females and 80 years for males.

Poland

Population pyramid of Poland 2016

Poland will have advantages from these demographic shifts. Poland could become the main place for young workers from the Eastern European countries. The economic effects of demographic shifts will be less concerning in Poland than in its neighboring countries even though it is expected to lose 15 percent of its population by mid-century. It is projected that by 2050 population of Poland will decrease to 32 million due to the emigration and low birth rates. The fertility rates have dropped from 3.7 children per woman in 1950 to 1.32 children per woman in 2014. This drastic drop would affect the economy of Poland. In order to alter this decrease in fertility, Poland has followed in the footsteps of France. They have created their own child support plan to help families who have more than one child. The government will pay 124 US dollars, or 500 zlotys, each month for every additional child they have.

Portugal

Main article: Demographics of Portugal

Population pyramid of Portugal 2016

Portugal's population census of 1994 found that 13.1% of the population was above the age of 65. Average life expectancy for Portuguese increased by eight years between the 1980s and the first decade of the 21st century. In 2017 the population of the people aged 60 and more was 27.9%, with an estimate to increase in 2050 to 41.7%. The life expectancy at birth in 2010-2015 is projected to be 83 years for females and 77 years for males.

In the 1960s life expectancy for men ranked comparatively low in relation to other Western European nations, with 61.2 years for men and 67.5 years for women. As of 2006, the average for both sexes was at 77.7 years. In 1999 demographers predicted the percentage of elderly Portuguese would increase to 16.2% and 17.6% in 2010.

Recent studies in the newspaper "Público" showed that the population may shrink to 7.5 million (−29% of the current population, −0.7% of average populational growth per year) in 2050, if the fertility rate continues at 1.45 children/woman; taking into account the almost stationary emigration due to the economic crisis. In 2011, Portugal's fertility rate reached 1.51 children per woman, stemming the decline in the nation's fertility rate, although it is still below replacement level.

Spain

Main article: Demographics of Spain

Population pyramid of Spain 2016

In 1970, Spain's TFR of 2.9 children per woman ranked second in Western Europe after the Republic of Ireland's rate of 3.9. By 1993 Spanish fertility declined to 1.26 children per woman, the second lowest after Italy.

In 1999, Rocío Fernández-Ballesteros, Juan Díez-Nicolás, and Antonio Ruiz-Torres of Autónoma University in Madrid published a study on Spain's demography, predicting life expectancy of 77.7 for males and 83.8 for females by 2020. Arup Banerji and economist Mukesh Chawla of the World Bank predicted in July 2007 that half of Spain's population will be older than 55 by 2050, giving Spain the highest median age of any nation in the world.

In recent years, Spain's fertility rate has grown from 1.15 children per woman in 2000 to 1.48 in 2011.

In 2017 25.3% of the population of Spain was over 60 years old, and it is projected to increase to 41.9% by the year 2050.The life expectancy at birth in 2010-2015 is projected to be 85 years for females and 79 years for males.

United Kingdom

Main article: Demographics of the United Kingdom

Population pyramid of the United Kingdom 2016

The UK had a fertility rate of 1.94 in 2008 according to World Bank and a rate of 1.92 children per woman in 2010 according to the CIA Factbook. The second highest fertility rate of the European powers just below France at 2. It is expected that the United Kingdom's population will rise to 76.8 million by 2050.

In 2017 25.3% of the population of United Kingdom was over 60 years old, and it is projected to increase to 31.5% by the year 2050.The life expectancy at birth in 2010-2015 is projected to be 83 years for females and 79 years for males.

Overall trends

Main article: Historical population of the world

Giuseppe Carone and Declan Costello of the International Monetary Fund projected in September 2006 that the ratio of retirees to workers in Europe will double to 0.54 by 2050 (from four workers per retiree to two workers per retiree). William H. Frey, an analyst for the Brookings Institution think tank, predicts the median age in Europe will increase from 37.7 years old in 2003 to 52.3 years old by 2050 while the median age of Americans will rise to only 35.4 years old.

Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, the former European Commissioner for Research, Innovation and Science, stated that by 2020 a quarter of the population of Europe will be 60 years or older. This shift in demographics will drastically change the economic, labor market, health care, and social security of Europe.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates 39% of Europeans between the ages of 55 to 65 work. If Frey's prediction for Europe's rising median age is correct, Europe's economic output could radically decrease over the next four decades.

Austria's Social Affairs Minister said in 2006 that, by 2010, the 55- to 64-year-old age bracket in the European Union would be larger than the 15- to 24-year-old bracket. The Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission issued a report in 2006 estimating the working age population in the EU will decrease by 48 million, a 16% reduction, between 2010 and 2050, while the elderly population will increase by 58 million, a gain of 77%.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the European Union will experience a 14% decrease in its workforce and a 7% decrease in its consumer populations by 2030.

The feminization of an old age is reflected by an increasing number of females age 65 and older. The longer life span is prevalent amongst women across the world. In Europe the life expectancy for women is 81 years old, while men life expectancy is only 74 years old, which gives 7 years difference. Life expectancy at age 60 is 4 years longer for women in comparison to men. Projections show additional 24 years for females and 20 years for males in Europe .