User:Comradeotaku/sandbox

1964 Japanese general election
All 486 seats in the House of Representatives of Japan; 244 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	79.9% ( 0.0pp)
Cabinet before election; First Eda Cabinet; JSP-DSP	Cabinet after election ; Second Eda Cabinet; JSP-DSP

General elections were held in Japan on 15 July 1964 to elect the 486 members of the House of Representatives. The Japan Socialist Party retained its position as largest party with 157 seats at 32.3% of the popular vote, ahead of the Liberal Democratic Party, with 132 seats and 27.1% of the vote. Saburō Eda continued as Prime Minister in a minority coalition between the Socialists and Democratic Socialists, with extra-cabinet cooperation from the Clean Government Party. Voter turnout was 79.9%.

These elections were the first to be held under a proportional representation system introduced by the previous JSP-DSP coalition government, and saw both major parties see some losses both in vote share and seats, while the minor parties saw gains in their representation. In particular, the newly formed Clean Government Party (Kōmeitō) performed well and became the fifth largest party with 6.3% of the vote and 29 seats, while the Communists more than doubled their representation to 26 seats and saw modest vote share gains. The Democratic Socialist Party and the National Reform Party both saw some seat gains, although the NRP saw a marginal decline in its vote share.

Background

Following the 1960 general election a minority coalition Cabinet between the Japan Socialist Party and Democratic Socialist Party under Prime Minister Saburō Eda was formed, with extra-cabinet cooperation from progressive independents, unseating the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Even then, the Cabinet lacked an overall majority, and relied on abstentions from the Japan Communist Party Representatives, and its position in the House of Councillors was even worse, where the LDP remained the largest party.

Despite its unstable position, the government performed well in the 1962 House of Councillors election and the 1963 unified local elections, and passed a number of landmark pieces of domestic legislation, including an expansion to the National Pension scheme, overhaul of the National Health Insurance system to guarantee all citizens access to healthcare free at the point of use, nationalised the energy, coal and steel industries, strengthened the rights of trade unions and collective bargaining (including by resolving the Miike Struggle in favour of the miners), and introduced women's rights legislation, such as allowing women to keep their maiden name after marriage and improving childcare services to support working mothers.

With the support of all parties except the LDP, the JSP-DSP coalition also passed an overhaul of the electoral law for both chambers of the National Diet. The 100 nationally-elected seats in the House of Councillors were changed to be elected via proportional representation (50 every election cycle), while the House of Representatives was completely overhauled to be elected via a proportional system, with seat allocations recalibrated to stop favouring rural areas.

In foreign policy the JSP-DSP Cabinet was less successful. Attempts to renegotiate the United States–Japan Security Treaty to be more favourable to Japan were stalled by the Kennedy administration, in the hopes that the left-wing coalition would collapse and give way for another LDP administration. To this end, as later declassified documents revealed, the CIA covertly funneled money to DSP elements opposed to treaty renegotiation and more amenable to the American alliance. Despite opposition from the left-wing of the JSP, Prime Minister Eda moderated some of his demands to maintain the DSP coalition and convince the United States to agree, but despite these efforts, the requirement that Okinawa be returned to Japanese sovereignty immediately meant these efforts were stonewalled. Following the assassination of John F. Kennedy, the new Johnson administration was even less willing to entertain renegotiation, especially as the Japanese government had withdrawn its recognition of the Republic of China in favour of the People's Republic of China.

Despite the failure to get the Security Treaty renegotiated, the government saw a normalisation of relations with communist states, namely the Soviet Union and mainland China. Reassurances from Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev even indicated that, should the government succeed in getting the United States military presence removed from the country, the USSR would consider the transfer of the southernmost Kuril Islands (Kunashir, Habomai, Iturup and Shikotan) as part of a formal peace treaty. In addition, a Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and China was signed in 1963 as part of Japan's recognition of the PRC as the sole legal government of China. While the DSP attempted to push for a recognition of "both Chinas", this failed due to the One China policy. The DSP eventually relented, but did not do so on the question of Korea: attempts to recognise both the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea failed, and the government could not agree on which to recognise (the JSP supported DPRK recognition, while the DSP supported ROK recognition).

The Japan Self-Defence Forces' already meagre size was further downsized, although full abolition of the JSDF was blocked by the DSP. The intention to make Japan a neutral country, the neutrality, security and sovereignty of which would be guaranteed by the United States, China and the Soviet Union, was formally declared, although the failure to abrogate the Security Treaty meant this remained simply an intention, despite the warming relations with China and the USSR.

JSP internal struggles: Structural Reform and the "Eda Vision"

While Eda had been in the Left Socialist Party and was opposed to the Nishio faction of the JSP that ended up forming the core of the DSP, now that the right of the party had left, he found himself among the most moderate members of a Socialist Party that was radically left-wing. While he successfully mustered the support for the platform of "structural reform" (inspired by the same line adopted by the Italian Communist Party under Palmiro Togliatti), calling on combining parliamentary pressure and extraparliamentary mass movements to achieve a hegemonic position for the Socialist movement across society, allowing it to overthrow capitalism and establish socialism, and had the doctrine adopted the 19th Party Congress held shortly after Asanuma's assassination, his more moderate line still faced considerable opposition from the left-wing factions, including most notably the Socialist Association. His experience in government with the DSP led to further compromises and his further shift to the centre, far more rapidly than many in the party who initially supported him were willing to accept, galvanising internal party opposition. When Eda attempted to push through his "Eda Vision" of socialism, seeking to emulate the United States' high living standards, Britain's parliamentary democracy, the USSR's social security and preserve Japan's peace constitution, at the 22nd Congress in 1962, Secretary-General Tomomi Narita, the main ideologue of structural reform and Eda's right-hand man, voiced his disagreement with the Eda Vision, while still remaining committed to the structural reform doctrine. The left latched on to this opposition and allowed it to win the internal struggle at the Party Congress. While the Eda Vision was narrowly rejected by the Party Congress, Eda was retained as Chairman to allow him to continue as Prime Minister in the coalition government. Nonetheless, Narita also retained his position as the second most important figure figure in the party, as he built up a new pro-structural reform, anti-Eda Vision faction (classified by some as the "Middle Left" or centre-left in the internal party context) that was well-represented in the JSP Central Executive Committee.

Electoral system

This was the first Japanese election to be held under open list proportional representation following electoral reform by the previous Socialist-Democratic Socialist coalition government. The seat assignments were totally reworked, consolidating most electoral districts according to prefecture borders, with the exception of Fukuoka, Osaka, Hyogo, Kanagawa, Aichi and Hokkaido prefectures, which were split into two districts, and Tokyo, which was split into four, due to their large size. Previous favouritism to rural areas was removed, with a proportional assigment of seats according to electorate. Seats within districts were distributed in accordance with the largest remainder method using the Hare quota. Japan's notoriously strict campaign laws were also slightly loosened, although they remained quite stringent relative to other states.

Campaign

The Socialists and Democratic Socialists, despite being in coalition, ran separate campaigns on similar issues that occasionally collided with each other, especially as the left-wing factions of the JSP and the right-wing factions of the DSP blame each other for the government's shortcomings, especially on foreign policy. Overall however, the official leaderships of the two parties maintained cordial relations despite private disagreements and the desire of the DSP to strengthen its position in a future Cabinet.

The JSP under Narita's organisational leadership fully embraced the structural reform tactics and argued that the JSP-DSP coalition Cabinet was the first bridgehead of the coming socialist revolution and urged a mobilisation of the anti-monopoly forces in a national concentration against capital. The Sōhyō union federation, as well as other mass organisations like the Gensuikyō anti-nuclear weapons council, worked with JSP leaders to organise huge rallies for the election and mobilise organised workers and young people in urban areas to come out to vote. The party stressed the government's domestic successes and called for another mandate to press the advantage against the "isolated monopolists" - and deliver a final knockout blow to Japanese state monopoly capitalism. Furthermore, a re-election of the coalition with a stronger majority would give the government the political capital to abrogate the Security Treaty with the US fully and achieve American military withdrawal. Despite the optimism, and a significant tack to the left that Eda himself was not necessarily comfortable with (despite the structural reform tactic being used as the ideological justification for this new line), even the party's strongest partisans expected to suffer losses due to the electoral reforms, and this strong leftist stand was imagined as a way to mobilise core voters and prevent bleeding to the Communists, as even the far-left of the JSP mistrusted the JCP and saw it as deviationist.

After their defeat in the 1960 election, the Liberal Democrats elected Eisaku Satō to replace the disgraced Nobusuke Kishi. Despite being more moderate than his elder brother, and associated with the Liberal/Yoshida wing of the conservative merger (conservative mainstream) as opposed to Kishi's Democratic/Hatoyama wing (conservative anti-mainstream), Satō remained firmly on the right of the LDP and was opposed to rapprochement with the National Reform Party who he saw as traitors.

Results

For the first time since 1947, the Japan Socialist Party emerged as the largest party in the chamber, achieving the highest vote share and seat total in its history up to this point. With over a third of the vote and 181 seats, as opposed to the LDP's 148, the party was well-positioned to negotiate a coalition government in which it would be the leading force. In contrast, the Liberal Democratic Party lost its first election since it was formed as a unified party in 1955, forcing Kishi to announce his resignation from both the premiership and the presidency of the LDP. His more moderate younger brother Eisaku Satō was elected to succeed him as president of the party.

The leftist parties struggled to make ground in rural areas, but in contrast the Liberal Democrats suffered a complete collapse in the urban areas, being entirely eliminated in some urban constituencies, such as Osaka city, Nagoya and northern Kyūshū. Vote splitting between the LDP and NRP benefited the leftists, meanwhile vote splitting between the JSP, DSP and JCP benefitted the right; however, because of the extent of erstwhile LDP dominance, the LDP suffered much more from NRP competition, meanwhile the JSP and DSP collectively garnered around 5.7 million votes more than the united JSP had in the 1958 election, gaining a net 56 seats.

The DSP and NRP were the big winners of the election, winning 73 and 41 seats respectively in their first elections, while the JCP saw respectable gains as well, rising from one to ten seats. Since no single party won an overall majority, a coalition was required for a government to be formed. However, apart from an unlikely JSP–NRP coalition, or an even more remote grand JSP–LDP coalition, no workable coalition had a majority in the House of Representatives nor the House of Councillors.



Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Japan Socialist Party	14,882,793	32.34	157	–24
	Liberal Democratic Party	12,490,958	27.14	132	–16
	National Reform Party	7,558,079	16.42	82	+10
	Democratic Socialist Party	5,100,936	11.08	59	+18
	Clean Government Party	2,884,039	6.27	29	New
	Japanese Communist Party	2,672,141	5.81	26	+16
	Other parties	427,673	0.93	1	+1
Total		46,016,619	100.00	486	+19

Valid votes		46,016,619	98.87
Invalid/blank votes		527,321	1.13
Total votes		46,543,940	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		58,273,519	79.87

By prefecture

Prefecture	Total seats	Seats won
		JSP	LDP	NRP	DSP	CGP	JCP	Other

Aichi	23	7	5	4	4	2	1
Akita	7	2	1	2	1		1
Aomori	7	2	2	2			1
Chiba	13	4	3	2	2	1	1
Ehime	8	3	3	1	1
Fukui	4	1	2	1
Fukuoka	20	8	3	3	3	2	1
Fukushima	9	3	3	1	1	1
Gifu	9	2	4	1	1	1
Gunma	8	3	2	3
Hiroshima	12	3	5	1	1	1	1
Hokkaido	24	11	6	3	2	1	1
Hyōgo	21	7	4	3	4	2	1
Ibaraki	10	3	3	3		1
Ishikawa	5	1	1	2	1
Iwate	7	2	3	1	1
Kagawa	5	2	2	1
Kagoshima	9	2	4	2	1
Kanagawa	22	8	3	4	3	2	2
Kōchi	5	1	1	1	1	1
Kumamoto	9	2	3	3	1
Kyoto	11	3	1	2	2	1	2
Mie	8	2	2	3	1
Miyagi	9	3	3	1	1		1
Miyazaki	5	1	2	1	1
Nagano	10	3	3	2	1		1
Nagasaki	8	2	2	2	1	1
Nara	4	1	1	1	1
Niigata	12	4	3	3	1		1
Ōita	6	2	1	2	1
Okayama	9	4	2	1	1	1
Osaka	31	9	7	2	6	3	4
Saga	4	1	1	1				1
Saitama	13	4	4	1	2	1	1
Shiga	4	1	2	1
Shimane	4	1	1	1	1
Shizuoka	14	4	7	1	1	1
Tochigi	8	2	3	1	1	1
Tokushima	4	1	1	2
Tokyo	52	22	10	4	6	4	6
Tottori	4	1	1	1	1
Toyama	5	1	1	2	1
Wakayama	5	2	2	1
Yamagata	7	2	4	1
Yamaguchi	8	2	4		1	1
Yamanashi	4	2	1	1
Total	486	157	132	82	59	29	26	1

Aftermath

Government formation

Despite the mutual enmity between the Japan Socialist Party and the Democratic Socialist Party following the party split, Saburō Eda and Jōtarō Kawakami of the JSP and Suehiro Nishio and Eiichi Nishimura of the DSP successfully negotiated a coalition deal, with Eda becoming Prime Minister. The agreement promised electoral reform, expansion of the National Pension and National Health Insurance systems, legislation strengthening trade unions and collective bargaining, nationalisation of the coal and steel industries, and comprehensive women's rights legislation. Most importantly however, the government would seek a complete rengotiation and abrogation of the United States–Japan Security Treaty involving a complete withdrawal of the United States military from Japan, return of Okinawa to Japanese sovereignty and establishment of an equal relationship between the two countries. Seiichi Katsumada of the JSP became Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Despite the success of negotiations, the JSP-DSP coalition still lacked an overall majority in the House of Representatives. The coalition would seek votes with the Japanese Communist Party, National Reform Party or progressive independents on individual policy items, and would rely on abstentions by the Communists and National Reformists in confidence votes. The government's position was even worse in the House of Councillors, where the LDP remained the largest party (although it had lost its narrow majority due to defections to the NRP). Nonetheless Eda was elected Prime Minister on 5 August 1960 on the run-off ballot with 224 votes of the JSP, DSP and two independents, with the JCP and NRP submitting blank ballots, with only the LDP voting against.

Reactions

Domestic

The Anpo protests took on a different character following the election, celebrating the left's victory and Kishi's defeat just as much as protesting the Security Treaty. Organised labour, in particular the pro-JSP Sōhyō trade union centre, was also receptive to the new left coalition, especially following the announcement of the coalition's intention to strengthen trade unions. The strikers at Miike coal mine reinvigorated their activity, expecting the new government to intervene on their behalf, which it did in September, enforcing a pro-worker deal on the management of the mine. Businesses reacted negatively and threatened to jeopardise the stable economic growth of Japan should the new government not make concessions.

Political commentators predicted the government would not last long given its lack of parliamentary majority in either house, overly ambitious political programme and factional strife within the JSP. However this government proved surprisingly stable after it performed well in the 1962 House of Councillors election and 1963 local elections, and lasted the full term of the House of Representatives from 1960 to 1964.

International

The election received a large amount of international media attention given the huge role the US–Japan relationship, and the Anpo treaty in particular, played in the run-up and course of the election. Following the election, US President Dwight Eisenhower issued a strongly worded statement urging the new government to adopt the new draft of the Security Treaty in the interest of maintaining and protecting democracy in Asia. With the 1960 United States presidential election approaching, the failure to ratify the Security Treaty and the ousting of the LDP was seen as a significant defeat for the Eisenhower administration, and contributed to Richard Nixon's defeat by John F. Kennedy in the election.

Negative reactions also followed from the Republic of China, given the intention of the new coalition government to recognise the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China. President of Taiwan Chiang Kai-shek warned against derecognition of the ROC and emphasised the threat of communism in the Asia-Pacific. In contrast, the PRC welcomed the new government and hoped to establish relations and reciprocal trade on a swift schedule. Similarly, both the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea congratulated the new government, and hoped relations may be established, provided Japan formally and officially acknowledge its responsibility for the occupation and colonisation of Korea.