User:Comic master/Rising Powers

This is a place where we can put anything that is contested at Potential Superpowers such as (at the moment) Brazil, and other countries that are on the rise but don't fall in that category (such as South Africa, Turkey, Mexico and South Korea).

History of Rising Powers

Throughout history various states have risen to become powers in their own right - two of the earliest being the Roman Republic and State of Qin.

After the fall of the Roman Empire, various splinter states began to become more powerful, including the Frankish Empire and Spain. In the Middle Ages period, Portugal also began to rise as a power.

In the early modern age, Britain and Russia started to emerge as world powers. Wars fought in Europe to unify Italy and Germany resulted in more rising power on the continent. In Asia, Japan began to rise as a rival to Russian Far East supremacy, and in the Americas the United States was emerging as another Great Power.

At the turn of the century the German Empire tried to rival Britain as the permier world power, failing at the end of the First World War. Under Hitler, Nazi Germany attempted to once again obtain this status alongside an increasingly nationalistic Japanese Empire. The Soviet Union, the successor state to the Russian Empire, also began to rise in military strength. Communist China, after the Sino-Soviet split some 20 years later, was also predicted to emerge as a third superpower. Increased economic growth also hinted that Japan might be able to emerge as a superpower through less militaristic means. In the 1990's, Japan's potential lessened.

In the 21st century there are many countries that have the potential to rise to greater statuses (these statuses include Superpower and Great Power). Among these are the People's Republic of China, the European Union, India, the Russian Federation, Brazil, South Africa and South Korea.

The Ancient World

Main article: Historical powers

Roman expansion allowed it to rise as a power, culminating in the Punic Wars

There were two states that had the potential to rise to greater statuses of power in the ancient world and managed to show this potential - the Roman Republic and the State of Qin.

The Roman Republic expanded throughout the Italian peninsula, gradually gaining greater hegemonic influence. With the aftermath of the Punic Wars with Carthage, Rome emerged as the dominant European power. Wars that continued throughout the Republic and later Empire's existance ensured that this Pax Romana lasted. Rome reached the height of its potential under Trajan.

Qin was the most militarised of the Chinese states near the end of the Warring States Period. King Zheng felt that to ensure continued peace in the region China had to be unified, waging a series of wars to do so. The result was a unified China under Qin - allowing Qin to exert similar hegemonic influence throughout China to the power Rome had in Europe. The Han dynasty that followed the Qin maintained this influence in Asia.

Other ancient powers also rose to high levels of influence - Macedon (under Phillip and Alexandar), Persia (under such rulers as Xerxes and Darius) and Egypt (during the Rammesside period). Unlike the Roman Republic (later Empire) and Qin dynasty (later Han), these states were comparable to great powers.

This ancient period can be said to have ended with the collapse of the Roman empire in c. 450 AD. The Han dynasty had fallen in c. 220 AD, allowing another but less powerful dynasty to assume hegemonic control in the region.

Roman Republic/Roman Empire

Roman Republic/Roman Empire

Key events in the rise of Rome as a power:

• Punic Wars
• Julius Caesar's Gallic Wars and his assassination
• The triumvirate which ended in Antony against Octavian
• Ascention of Octavian to the throne as Augustus
• Claudius' invasion of the British Isles
• Trajan's ascension to the throne

Key reasons Rome became so powerful:

• Most advanced military
• Natural resources (eg; Campanian region
• Geographic positioning (centre of the Mediterranean)
• Administrative capabilities
• Cultural influence

Post-Cold War

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, there has been speculation and analysis of other powers that may emerge or rise in global standing. This has continued into the 21st century, where most analysis has focused on economic trends and population demographics. (note; most of this section is sourced from Potential Superpowers as of 21/11/11 unless noted otherwise)

BRICS

Main article: BRICS

BRICS leaders at the 2011 BRICS Summit in Sanya

The BRIC economies have been projected to become the largest in the world by 2050 in a report by Goldman Sachs. These countries (Brazil, India, China and Russia) have taken steps towards creating a BRIC political block, recently inviting South Africa to form a BRICS grouping.

Brazil

(mostly constructed on 11/21/11 using own sources)

Riordan Roett has written that, since 1994, Brazil has followed a foreign policy of regional integration (through groups such as MERCOSUR) and multilateralism (recently through forums such as the G-20). Its economic growth over the past decade is seen by other writers as giving it greater influence, which it has used in fostering cooperation among developing countries through “south-south” initiatives. Projections suggest that Brazil will continue to rise economically at least until 2050. Future wealth has been used by Brazil as leverage for current international influence.

In comparing Brazil to other BRICs India and China, Andres Oppenheimer felt that Brazil’s pride in its successes could harm the country in the future. He believes that complacency and assurance that Brazil will become a lead emerging power may prevent any such projections from eventuating. Paul Krugman similarly believes that the country’s economy is “doing well”, but it is not indicative that the country will become an economic superpower in the near future. Another analyst, Mark Burger, believes that although the country might improve it’s energy situation it will not become an energy superpower.

Russia

The Russian Federation has been suggested by some as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status in the 21st century.

According to economist Steven Rosefielde of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Russia intends to "reemerge as a full-fledged superpower," and "contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal is easily within the Kremlin's grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security would be immense." Rosefielde further argues that Russia "has an intact military-industrial complex...and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally militarized potential," and that "supply-side constraints don't preclude a return to prodigal superpowerdom".

Military analyst Alexander Golts of The St. Petersburg Times argues that Putin's confrontations with the U.S. on nuclear issues are in pursuit of regaining superpower status for Russia. It has been argued that Russia's foreign policy toward bordering countries is designed with the ultimate goal of regaining superpower status. Mike Ritchie of industry analysts Energy Intelligence says "Russia was always a superpower that used its energy to win friends and influence among its former Soviet satellites. Nothing has really changed much. They are back in the same game, winning friends and influencing people and using their power to do so."

India

Several media publications and academics have discussed the Republic of India's potential of becoming a great power or eventually a superpower. However, Daniel Lak describes India as the underdog, facing more challenges than advantages, yet it is approaching superpower status. He also mentions that despite the hardships of significant poverty and social inequality, India is overcoming all of this.

Anil Gupta is almost certain that India will become a superpower in the 21st century. As an example, he states that due to India's functional institutions of democracy and its relatively corruption-free society, it will emerge as a desirable, entrepreneurial and resource and energy-efficient superpower in the near future. He predicts that by 2015 India will overtake China to be the fastest growing economy in the world and emerge as a full-fledged economic superpower by 2025. In addition to that, he states, India has the potential to serve as a leading example of how to combine rapid economic growth with fairness towards and inclusion of those at the bottom rungs of the ladder and of efficient resource utilization, especially in energy.

Robyn Meredith claims that both India and China will be superpowers. However, she points out that China is decades ahead of India, and that the average Chinese person is better off than the average Indian person. Amy Chua also adds to this, stating that while India's potential for superpower is great, it still faces many problems such as "pervasive rural poverty, entrenched corruption, and high inequality just to name a few". Also like China, India lacks the "pull" for immigrants, and Indians still continue to emigrate in large numbers. However, she notes that India has made tremendous strides to fix this, stating that some of India's achievements, such as working to dismantle the centuries-old caste system and maintaining the world's largest diverse democracy is historically unprecedented.

Parag Khanna believes that India is not, and will not become a superpower for the foreseeable future, lagging decades behind China in both development and strategic appetite. Instead, he believes India will be a key swing state along with Russia. He says that India is "big but not important", has a highly successful professional class, while millions of its citizens still live in extreme poverty. He also writes that it matters that China borders a dozen more countries than India and is not hemmed in by a vast ocean and the world's tallest mountains. China has a loyal diaspora twice the size of India's and enjoys a head start in Asian and African marketplaces. However in a recent article written by Parag Khanna, he says that India, along with China will grow ever stronger, while other powers, like Europe, muddles along.

China

See also: Chinese Century

The People's Republic of China receives continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status, and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts. In fact, the 'rise of China' has been named the top news story of the 21st century by the Global Language Monitor, as measured by number of appearances in the global print and electronic media, on the Internet and blogosphere, and in Social Media.

Barry Buzan asserts that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower. Buzan claims that "China is currently the most fashionable potential superpower and the one whose degree of alienation from the dominant international society makes it the most obvious political challenger." However, he notes this challenge is constrained by the major challenges of development and by the fact that its rise could trigger a counter coalition of states in Asia.

Parag Khanna states that by making massive trade and investment deals with Latin America and Africa, China has established its presence as a superpower along with the European Union and the United States. China's rise is demonstrated by its ballooning share of trade in its gross domestic product. He believes that China's "consultative style" has allowed it to develop political and economic ties with many countries including those viewed as rogue states by the United States. He states that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization founded with Russia and the Central Asian countries may eventually be the "NATO of the East".

Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China may become too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk in China: Fragile Superpower. Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment. Minxin Pei does not believe that China is a superpower or that it will be one anytime soon arguing that it faces daunting political and economic challenges. Amy Chua states that whether a country has enough pull to bring immigrants is an important quality for a superpower. She also writes that China lacks the pull to bring scientists, thinkers, and innovators from other countries as immigrants. However, she believes that China made up for this with its own diaspora, saying that size and resources for them are unparalleled.

South Africa (own creation)

South Africa was not included in the Goldman Sachs report, and its economy is not believed to reach the same levels as the BRIC economies. It is, however, believed by many to be a rising power.

European Union

The European Union (EU) has been called an emerging superpower by academics. Many scholars and academics like T.R. Reid, Andrew Reding, Andrew Moravcsik, Mark Leonard, Jeremy Rifkin, John McCormick, and some politicians like Romano Prodi and Tony Blair either believe that the EU is, or will become, a superpower in the 21st century.

Mark Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy (the EU has the largest economy in the world; the economy of the EU is slightly larger than that of the U.S. in terms of GDP purchasing (PPP) ), low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members states' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week, health care, social services).

John McCormick believes that the EU has already achieved superpower status, based on the size and global reach of its economy and on its global political influence. He argues that the nature of power has changed since the Cold War-driven definition of superpower was developed, and that military power is no longer essential to great power; he argues that control of the means of production is more important than control of the means of destruction, and contrasts the threatening hard power of the United States with the opportunities offered by the soft power wielded by the European Union.

Parag Khanna believes that the EU, together with China, has already achieved superpower status and rivals the US for influence around the world. He also mentions the large economy of the EU, that European technologies more and more set the global standards and that European countries give the most development assistance. He agrees with McCormick that the EU does not need a common army to be a superpower. The EU uses intelligence and the police to apprehend radical Islamists, social policy to try to integrate restive Muslim populations and economic strength to incorporate the former Soviet Union and gradually subdue Russia. Khanna also writes that South America, East Asia, and other regions prefer to emulate the "European Dream" than the American variant. This could possibly be seen in the South American Union and the African Union. Notably, the EU as a whole is among the most culturally diverse "entities" on the planet, with some of the world's largest and most influential languages being official within its borders.

Andrew Reding also takes the future EU enlargement into account. An eventual future accession of the rest of Europe, the whole of Russia, and Turkey, would not only boost the economy of the EU, but it would also increase the EU's population to about 800 million, which he considers almost equal to that of India or China. The EU is qualitatively different from India and China since it is enormously more prosperous and technologically advanced. Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in 2005: "In 10 or 15 years, the EU will be a place where civilizations meet. It will be a superpower with the inclusion of Turkey."

Robert J. Guttman wrote in 2001 that the very definition of the term superpower has changed and in the 21st century, it does not only refer to states with military power, but also to groups such as the European Union, with strong market economics, young, highly educated workers savvy in high technology, and a global vision. Friis Arne Petersen, the Danish ambassador to the U.S. has expressed similar views. He conceded that the EU is a “special kind of superpower,” one that has yet to establish a unified military force that exerts itself even close to the same level as many of its individual members.

Additionally, it is argued by commentators that full political integration is not required for the European Union to wield international influence: that its apparent weaknesses constitute its real strengths (as of its low profile diplomacy and the emphasis on the rule of law) and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of international actor than traditional ones; however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would be equal to that of a politically integrated superpower such as the United States.

Barry Buzan notes that the EU's potential superpower status depends on its "stateness". It is unclear though how much state-like quality is needed for the EU to be described as a superpower. Buzan states that the EU is likely to remain a potential superpower for a long time because although it has material wealth, its "political weakness and its erratic and difficult course of internal political development, particularly as regards a common foreign and defence policy" constrains it from being a superpower.

Alexander Stubb, the Finnish Minister for Foreign Affairs, has said that he thinks the EU is both a superpower and not a superpower. While the EU is a superpower in the sense that it is the largest political union, single market and aid donor in the world, it is not a superpower in the defense or foreign policy spheres. Like Barry Buzan, Alexander Stubb thinks that the most major factor constraining the EU’s rise to superpower status is its lack of statehood in the international system, other factors are its lack of internal drive to project power worldwide, and continued preference for the sovereign nation-state amongst some Europeans. To counter-balance these he urged the EU leaders to approve and ratify the Lisbon Treaty (which they did in 2009), create an EU foreign ministry (EEAS, led by High Representative Catherine Ashton, will be finished in 2012), develop a common EU defense, hold one collective seat at the UN Security Council and G8, and address what he described as the “sour mood” toward the EU prevalent in some European countries today.

However, some do not believe that the EU will achieve superpower status. "The EU is not and never will be a superpower" according to the former UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs David Miliband. Lacking a unified foreign policy and with an inability to project military power worldwide, the EU lacks "the substance of superpowers," who by definition have "first of all military reach [and] possess the capacity to arrive quickly anywhere with troops that can impose their government's will.". EU parliamentarian Ilka Schroeder argues that conflicts such as the Israeli-Palestinian dispute see close EU involvement largely to compensate for European inability to project military power internationally.

The Economist's Robert Lane Greene notes that the lack of a strong European military only exacerbates the lack of unified EU foreign policy and discounts any EU arguments towards superpower status, noting especially that the EU's creation of a global response force rivaling the superpower's (America) is "unthinkable." The biggest barrier to European superpowerdom is that European elites refuse to bring their postmodern fantasies about the illegitimacy of military "hard power" into line with the way the rest of the world interprets reality" according to Soren Kern of Strategic Studies Group. Britain's Michael Howard has warned against the "worry" that many Europeans are pushing for greater EU integration to counter-balance the United States, while Europe's total reliance on soft (non-military) power is in part because of its lack of a "shared identity." While to some the European Union should be a "model power" unafraid of using military force and backing free trade, its military shortcomings argue against superpower status.

Next Eleven

Main article: Next Eleven

The Next Eleven economies of Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam are held by Goldman Sachs to rise in prominence economically alongside the BRICS. Many other commentators have also discussed these countries with regards to their rising stature.