User:Collegebookworm
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Well, I'm new to editing, though not to wikipedia.
That's about it for now.
See me on facebook or ADSIC (or one of my Google Pages or Google Sites)
Well, I decided to citizen-review this article and came across some different results (using the exact same data he had access to. Therefore, I have decided to contest his results and formulate my own predictions; if I'm right, I'll be king of the Capital Hill. Now if only I could remember to revive this in 2013...
| +4 | +2 | +1 | -1 | -2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Arizona Florida |
Georgia Nevada Oregon Utah |
Illinois Iowa Louisiana Massachusetts Michigan Missouri New Jersey Pennsylvania |
New York Ohio |
Note that North Carolina and South Carolina in my projection will not gain seats, as predicted by Polidata, nor do California or Minnesota lose seats.
Some expected paradoxes to arise due to the 2010 Census and subsequent Congressional Apportionment:
a) New York and Ohio, which both grow in population, lose two seats, while Louisiana, whose population decreases, loses only one (due to the fact that both New York and Ohio have a large number of House Seats, and grow slower than the national average; the percentage seat decline is still less than Louisiana).
b) North Carolina stays steady at 13 seats, while Texas increases its seats by 12.5%, from 32 to 36, despite growing only 0.3% faster (population cannot account; North Carolina has about 40% as large a population as Texas, and the difference in growth is only 2 million people, making an expected difference in seat growth of 2.81).
See my 2010 Census work here... (Excel spreadsheet, .xls)
- I wonder if anyone has ever used calculus to compare the numbers. It seems on its face that this whole "mathematical paradox" issue is an arithmetic canard (i.e., they are using simple addition and averages versus comparing rates of change like one would in calc). Foofighter20x (talk) 23:40, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
- Well, I had thought about that, but the problem is that the population changes, when graphed, do not make a good polynomial curve, but rather stutter around randomly (except for the U.S. growth rate). I have, however, taken into account the downturn of economic fortunes for my 2008 proposal:
- I wonder if anyone has ever used calculus to compare the numbers. It seems on its face that this whole "mathematical paradox" issue is an arithmetic canard (i.e., they are using simple addition and averages versus comparing rates of change like one would in calc). Foofighter20x (talk) 23:40, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
| +4 | +2 | +1 | -1 | -2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Arizona | Florida Georgia Nevada Oregon South Carolina Utah |
Illinois Iowa Louisiana Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri New Jersey New York Pennsylvania |
Ohio |
Wow...Louisiana recovers nearly all of its population from 2000 (short about 12,000), from being 225,000 down on 1 July 2006, nearly a year after Katrina! Even more interesting, PoliData's numbers and mine agree in terms of seat redistribution. As long as the downturn isn't too bad (or too short), these should be the final values:
Seat Numbers:
- 431. South Carolina (due to economic downturn population mobility?)
- 432. New York (saves itself from losing a second seat)
- 433. Texas (just barely gets a 4th)
- 434. Oregon (economic-induced influx?)
- 435. California (first time since Statehood apportionment to not gain seats, and nearly lost this time, by 61,368 people [which is about the population of Lodi, CA in 2010])
- 436. Washington (just short by 11,090 people [the expected population of Sedro-Woolley, WA in 2010])
- 437. North Carolina (just short)
- 438. Minnesota (just barely misses saving that seat)
- 439. Missouri (just barely misses saving that seat)
- 440. Florida (just short of earning that seat)
- If 9,393 people were to permanently move on 31 March 2010 from California to Washington, the 435th seat would switch hands...
See my 2010 census version 2 work here (Excel spreadsheet, .xls)
- Update - If "A bill to provide the District of Columbia a voting seat and the State of Utah an additional seat in the House of Representatives" (aka the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act of 2009) passes into law as considered on 23 February 2009, then there will be 437 seats available. Seats 1 through 51 will be reserved for the states, plus D.C., and thus my numbers will need to be shifted one up (aka California gets seat 436) and Washington State will benefit from the extra free seat in 2013 (by only 2,674 people) and North Carolina is left out of seat #14 (by 2,382 people). Interestingly, if 984 people were to permanently move on 31 March 2010 from Washington to North Carolina, the 437th seat would switch hands...
v2010.3: The Final Preview
| +4 | +1 | -1 | -2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Arizona Florida Georgia Nevada South Carolina Utah Washington |
Illinois Iowa Louisiana Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota New Jersey New York Pennsylvania |
Ohio |
Of note:
- The recession is really messing with the numbers
- New estimate format based upon geometric (rather than arithmetic) mean
- Average district increases from 65,000 people to 71,000 people
- Michigan may be the only state to lose population this decade
- Louisiana finally exceeds July 2005 (pre-Katrina) population in Census 2010
- Fastest-growing states: Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Georgia, Idaho, Texas. Except for Georgia, all are west of the Mississippi River.
- Slowest-growing growing states: Rhode Island, West Virginia, Louisiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Vermont. Excluding Louisiana, they are all located in the northeasterly portion of the U.S.
- Last five seats apportioned (#431-435): New York, Washington, Missouri, Texas, California
- First five states to miss out on another seat (#436-440): Minnesota, Oregon, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida
- If 8,827 people moved from California to Minnesota, in addition to natural population, the 435th seat would switch hands. Otherwise, California would need to lose 70,746 people or Minnesota gain 10,085 from estimated to switch the seat.
My summary Excel doc (Google Docs).
The all-too-early 2020 Census Congressional Reapportionment
[edit]| +3 | +1 | -1 |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | California Colorado Florida North Carolina Oregon |
Illinois Michigan Minnesota New York Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island West Virginia |
Because it's never too early...
Notes:
- Texas continues its trend of great growth, though less than in the previous decade
- The Northeast and Midwest will continue to bleed (the only state outside the regions to lose a seat was West Virginia), with a net -3 and -4 seats, respectively.
- No state will losemore than 1 seat.
- The South and West should expect even stronger Congressional influence with a net of +4 and +3 seats, respectively
Texas School Districts
[edit]Continuing my research into what national rank my school district holds in terms of size (101st for the same time as the corresponding Wikipedia article), I am going to delve deeper into the rarely-viewed complete list of school districts in Texas...
So far, I've found that the TEA officially counts 1,034 school districts in Texas with a total of 4,576,933 students - that's an average of 4,426.4 students per school district. I've put up the complete list here, though there's no difference between that and the list of school districts in Texas.
| Number | Type |
|---|---|
| 990 | Independent School District |
| 37 | Consolidated Independent School District |
| 4 | Common School District |
| 2 | Consolidated Common School District |
| 1 | Municipal School District |
Other further things to come include:
- An ordered list of all school districts in Texas by 2006-2007 enrollment
- A graphical representation of the cumulative distribution function of a probability distribution
- a.k.a. a graph akin to the Lorenz curve for school district enrollment
- (Possibly) a breakdown by grade level taught of the above graph
- Annual updates to all implemented features
Random
[edit]Obama's Foreign Policy experience & help
[edit]OH! Wow, this article was extremely helpful in describing Obama's foreign policy experience and how he makes his stances. If only I could find one as helpful for McCain, because all I know for sure about his experience is that he was a POW (and didn't advise anybody on foreign policy while being held)
Templates to use: {{Collapse top}}
Creative Commons Music
[edit]Oh, I love this band for keeping up with the internet... CD:Probuzhdane