User:Chaserh2003
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39 governorships 36 states; 3 territories | ||||||||||||||||
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Democratic incumbent Term-limited or retiring Democrat Republican incumbent Term-limited or retiring Republican No election |
United States gubernatorial elections will be held on November 8, 2022, in 36 states and three territories. Special elections may also take place (depending on state law) if other gubernatorial seats are vacated.
As most governors serve four-year terms, the last regular gubernatorial elections for all but two of the seats took place in 2018. The governors of New Hampshire and Vermont, each of whom serves two-year terms, ran in the 2020 elections. The 2022 gubernatorial elections will take place concurrently with several other federal, state and local elections.
Partisan composition
[edit]Going into the election, there are 28 Republican governors and 22 Democratic governors in the United States. This class of governors is made up of 20 Republicans and 16 Democrats.
In contrast to 2018, where Republicans were defending eight seats in states won by Donald Trump in 2016, Republicans hold six seats in states won by Joe Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, Democrats were defending one governorship from the last midterm elections in a state won by Trump in 2016 and are now defending one governorship in a state that Trump won in 2020.
Gov. Election predictions
[edit]Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each state, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat. Most election predictors use:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
State | PVI[1] | Incumbent[2] | Last race |
Cook July 22, 2022[3] |
IE July 22, 2022[4] |
Sabato June 29, 2022[5] |
Politico May 23, 2022[6] |
RCP June 20, 2022[7] |
Fox July 11, 2022[8] |
538[a][b] July 21, 2022[9] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | R+15 | Kay Ivey | 59.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Alaska | R+8 | Mike Dunleavy | 51.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Arizona | R+2 | Doug Ducey (term-limited) | 56.0% R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Lean R |
Arkansas | R+16 | Asa Hutchinson (term-limited) | 65.3% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
California | D+13 | Gavin Newsom | 61.9% D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) |
Colorado | D+4 | Jared Polis | 53.4% D | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup D | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tilt D | Lean R (flip) |
Connecticut | D+7 | Ned Lamont | 49.4% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) |
Florida | R+3 | Ron DeSantis | 49.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Georgia | R+3 | Brian Kemp | 50.2% R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R |
Hawaii | D+14 | David Ige (term-limited) | 62.7% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D |
Idaho | R+18 | Brad Little | 59.8% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Illinois | D+7 | J. B. Pritzker | 54.5% D | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean R (flip) | Lean D | Lean D |
Iowa | R+6 | Kim Reynolds | 50.3% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Kansas | R+10 | Laura Kelly | 48.0% D | Likely R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) |
Maine | D+2 | Janet Mills | 50.9% D | Likely R (flip) | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean D | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
Maryland | D+14 | Larry Hogan (term-limited) | 55.4% R | Lean R | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Likely R | Tilt R | Tossup |
Massachusetts | D+15 | Charlie Baker (retiring) | 66.6% R | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tilt R | Likely D (flip) | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup |
Michigan | R+1 | Gretchen Whitmer | 53.3% D | Likely R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) |
Minnesota | D+1 | Tim Walz | 53.8% D | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Likely R (flip) |
Nebraska | R+13 | Pete Ricketts (term-limited) | 59.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Nevada | R+1 | Steve Sisolak | 49.4% D | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
New Hampshire | D+1 | Chris Sununu | 65.1% R | Solid R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
New Mexico | D+3 | Michelle Lujan Grisham | 57.2% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) |
New York | D+10 | Kathy Hochul | 59.6% D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Tilt D |
Ohio | R+6 | Mike DeWine | 50.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Oklahoma | R+20 | Kevin Stitt | 54.3% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Oregon | D+6 | Kate Brown (term-limited) | 50.1% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) |
Pennsylvania | R+2 | Tom Wolf (term-limited) | 57.8% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Tossup | Likely R (flip) |
Rhode Island | D+8 | Dan McKee | 52.6% D | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean D | Tilt R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Tilt D | Lean D |
South Carolina | R+8 | Henry McMaster | 54.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
South Dakota | R+16 | Kristi Noem | 51.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Tennessee | R+14 | Bill Lee | 59.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Texas | R+5 | Greg Abbott | 55.8% R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R |
Vermont | D+16 | Phil Scott | 68.5% R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
Wisconsin | R+2 | Tony Evers | 49.5% D | Likely R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) |
Wyoming | R+25 | Mark Gordon | 67.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
- ^ "2016 State PVI Changes – Decision Desk HQ". decisiondeskhq.com. December 15, 2017. Archived from the original on June 13, 2018. Retrieved December 11, 2018.
- ^ Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
- ^ "2022 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 13, 2021.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
- ^ "Crystal Ball 2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Governor's Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. Retrieved July 11, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
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