User:Alexander1257/2012 Jenku City hurricane season BACKUP
| Alexander1257/2012 Jenku City hurricane season BACKUP | |
|---|---|
 Season summary map | |
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | November 16, 2012 |
| Last system dissipated | Season currently active |
| Strongest storm | |
| Name | Cameron |
| • Maximum winds | 150 km/h (90 mph) |
| • Lowest pressure | 972 hPa (mbar) |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| 3 | |
| 2 | |
| Tropical cyclones | 1 |
| 0 | |
| Total fatalities | 0 |
| Total damage | Unknown |
The 2012 Jenku City hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season will officially begin on December 1, 2012, but Tropical Storm Alex formed on November 16. It later dissipated on November 21. The season will officially end on August 1, 2013. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Jenku basin.
The season started with a bang, with three depressions forming before the start of the official season, the most on record, passing 2009's two.
Seasonal forecasts
[edit]| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes | |
| Average (2007–2011) | 24 | 13 | 4 | ||
| Record high activity | 34 (2009) | 22 (2009) | 8 (2009) | ||
| Record low activity | 18 (2011) | 6 (2011) | 2 (2011) | ||
| ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | |||||
| STSPC | August 7, 2012 | 26 | 14 | 4 | |
| JDM | August 21, 2012 | 18 | 7 | 3 | |
| JHC | September 4, 2012 | 21 | 8 | 4 | |
| MCHC | September 26, 2012 | 15 | 6 | 2 | |
| OCHC | October 12, 2012 | 17 | 8 | 3 | |
| MIHC | October 23, 2012 | 24 | 10 | 5 | |
| QCHC | October 31, 2012 | 27 | 14 | 6 | |
| SCHC | November 2, 2012 | 18 | 7 | 2 | |
| CNEHC | November 5, 2012 | 29 | 16 | 7 | |
| CNWHC | November 7, 2012 | 19 | 7 | 4 | |
| CSWHC | November 12, 2012 | 23 | 10 | 5 | |
| CSEHC | November 13, 2012 | 28 | 16 | 8 | |
| ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | |||||
| Actual activity |
2 | 0 | 0 | ||
There were conflicting signals regarding how active the 2012 season would be, and the extended outlooks issued by many agencies reaffirmed that. The Jenku Hurricane Center forecasted a slightly less active season than normal, predicting 21 tropical storms due to cooler sea surface temperatures, but the Collaborative Southeast Hurricane Center forecasted an above-average season, citing an El Abuelo that was predicted to form. The least active season was projected by the Military City Hurricane Center, which predicted a record low season in terms of tropical storms (15), and hurricane and major hurricane amounts that would tie the record low (6 and 2). The most active season was projected by Collaborative Northeast Hurricane Center, which predicted a well above-average season of 29 named storms, 16 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes.
Storms
[edit]
Tropical Storm Alex
[edit]| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
| Duration | November 16 – November 21 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 100 km/h (65 mph) (1-min); 991 hPa (mbar) |
On November 13, an elongated low pressure system located just off the southeastern coast of Jenku developed a closed circulation and began to drift eastward. The low developed moderate organized convection near its center, and the circulation became less elongated the next day. This prompted the JHC to begin to monitor the system, giving it a 25% chance of tropical cyclone development within 36 hours. On November 15, a strong burst of convection developed, but it was located 50 nautical miles away from the center of circulation due to strong westerly shear. The JHC noted the same day that the low would be exiting the high-shear environment overnight, and would be in a low shear environment for 3-4 days, noting the potential for development. The next day, convection developed closer to the center and the JHC declared it Tropical Depression One. A curved band of moderate convection developed almost all the way around the center, and One intensified into Minor Tropical Storm Alex with winds of 35 mph on November 17.
On November 18, Alex underwent rapid intensification as a banding eye feature formed, convection strengthened, and outflow markedly improved. Alex strengthened into a tropical storm that afternoon, and reached its peak intensity of 65 mph late that night. The next day, Alex began to exit the low shear environment and enter a stable dry air mass as it accelerated northeastward. Alex gradually weakened on the 19th and was downgraded to a minor tropical storm that night. The dry air continued to take its toll as Alex was downgraded to a tropical depression on the 20th. However, that afternoon, just as the JHC was ready to declare Alex a remnant low, a small burst of moderate convection formed over the now-exposed center, and advisories continued for another 12 hours, into the morning of the 21st, when the convective cell dissipated.
Minor Tropical Storm Britney
[edit]| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
 | |
| Duration | November 20 – November 22 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 75 km/h (45 mph) (1-min); 1001 hPa (mbar) |
On November 18, a broad low pressure area located about 200 nautical miles east of the southern tip of Jenku City began to develop organized convection. As it moved north-northwestward, it began to develop a closed circulation and acquire tropical characteristics. However, further development was not anticipated, as the low was entering a stable air mass. However, on the 19th, the low made an unexpected turn to the left, towards southeastern Jenku, therefore avoiding the air mass. The next day, after a burst of very deep convection former over the center, it was declared that the low had become Tropical Depression Two at noon. Two, now caught in an area of light steering currents, moved slowly southwestward back toward the southern tip of Jenku as slowly began to get better organized. That night, a central dense overcast formed, and satellite estimates as well as an ASCAT pass showed that Two had strengthened into Minor Tropical Storm Britney at 2230 JNT. On November 21, tropical storm warnings were issued for most of the southeastern coast of Jenku as Britney strengthened to a strong minor tropical storm with winds of 45 mph and was expected to strengthen further into a tropical storm before landfall. However, Britney's intensity was stagnant as the storm made landfall at 0200 JNT on November 22, dissipating inland the same day.
Hurricane Cameron
[edit]| Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
 | |
| Duration | November 20 – November 26 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 150 km/h (90 mph) (1-min); 972 hPa (mbar) |
On November 18, a cluster of thunderstorms broke off from the JCZ about 250 nautical miles south of the southern tip of Jenku City. The next day, its pressure dropped as a closed circulation, albeit weak, formed. However, on the morning of November 20 the disturbance, having developed a large area of organized convection, was declared Tropical Depression Three, setting the record for earliest 3rd depression in Jenku recorded history. Three then started to rapidly intensify as it entered an environment with almost zero shear. Its current track, moving steadily east-northeast at around 15 mph, took it out of the low shear environment and into an environment with 40 kt of southwesterly shear, as is common for November in the basin. Late on the 20th, Three was declared Minor Tropical Storm Cameron, as a curved band had formed and was increasing in coverage and intensity by the minute. At 0200 JNT on the 21st, Cameron was declared a tropical storm as the band had now wrapped 9/10 of the way around the circulation and a mid-level eye appeared as if it was trying to form. Rapid intensification continued, and at 0600 JNT the same day, it was declared that a clear eye had developed and so had a very symmetrical hurricane, as objective J-Dvorak C-numbers showed that Cameron had reached hurricane strength with winds of 75 mph. At 1300 JNT, an advisory from the JHC declared that "around the eye is a ring of extremely deep convection with cloud tops as cool as -95˚C" and "multiple ASCAT passes and a unanimous agreement on satellite estimates lead us to believe that Cameron is now a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 90 mph." Shortly after this advisory was issued, Cameron's intensity plateaued, as it began crossing the threshold into the high shear environment. Despite entering the hostile conditions, Cameron stayed a Category 2 hurricane until the morning of November 23, and a hurricane until 1200 JNT on the 24th. As Cameron's circulation became exposed and the associated convection with it continued to weaken, the JHC stated it expected dissipation in one day at 0430 JNT on November 25. That day, Cameron became a swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection, and it was declared a remnant low at 0030 JNT on the 26th.
Storm names
[edit]The following names will be used for tropical depressions that reach minor tropical storm strength or higher while in the Jenku basin. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the Jenku Hurricane Center on September 30, 2013. Bold indicates names that have been used, and Italic indicates names that have been retired.
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