Template:2026 NZ election forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[1]
| Source | Seats in parliament[i] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | ||
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[2] 8–10 Sep 2024 poll |
48 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[3] 1–10 Sep 2024 poll |
46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[4] 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll |
45 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| 1 News–Verian[5] 10–14 Aug 2024 poll |
49 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[6] 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll |
41 | 31 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[7] 4–8 Jul 2024 poll |
47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan[8] 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll |
44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[9] 15–19 Jun 2024 poll |
47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[10] 4–6 Jun 2024 poll |
44 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[11] 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll |
42 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[12] 5–7 May 2024 poll |
47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Talbot Mills[13] 30 Apr 2024 poll |
42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[14] 20–24 Apr 2024 poll |
48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Roy Morgan[15] 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll |
45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[16] 2–4 Apr 2024 poll |
47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[17] 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll |
45 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Talbot Mills[18] 1–10 Feb 2024 poll |
47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[19] 1–7 Feb 2024 poll |
49 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT (66) |
| Roy Morgan[20] 8–28 Jan 2024 poll |
49 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Roy Morgan[21] Dec 2023 poll |
46 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Curia[22] 3–5 Dec 2023 poll |
46 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | National–NZ First–ACT (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[23] 1–6 Nov 2023 poll |
46 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result[24] 14 Oct 2023 |
48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
- * indicates an overhang seat
- ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
References
- ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: September 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
- ^ Ensor, Jamie (19 September 2024). "New poll results show closer fight between Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon for preferred Prime Minister". NZ Herald.
- ^ "National support up in August as National-led Government increases lead to 10% points and RBNZ cut interest rates". Roy Morgan. 3 September 2024.
- ^ Desmarais, Felix (19 August 2024). "Poll: Voters warming to Luxon as PM, party votes hold firm". 1 News.
- ^ "National support lowest since the election but Labour support also down as support for minor parties increases in July". Roy Morgan. 6 August 2024.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: July 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
- ^ "National support increases marginally in June as support for Labour slumps back below 30%". Roy Morgan. 2 July 2024.
- ^ Desmarais, Felix (25 June 2024). "Poll: Government coalition makes up lost ground as NZ First lifts". 1 News.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: June 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
- ^ "Prime Minister Luxon's honeymoon is over as National support crashes to lowest since the NZ Election after sacking two ministers in late April". Roy Morgan. 28 May 2024.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll May 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
- ^ Edwards, Bryce (1 May 2024). "Political Roundup: Discontent and gloom dominate NZ's political mood". NZ Herald.
- ^ Desmarais, Felix (29 April 2024). "Poll: Labour could return to power if election held today". 1 News.
- ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (53%) lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori (43%) – cut to 10% points in April". Roy Morgan. 30 April 2024.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: April 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
- ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (55%) increase lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 41% – now at 14% points". Roy Morgan. 8 March 2024.
- ^ Coughlan, Thomas (16 February 2024). "National extends lead in latest Talbot-Mills poll, Chris Hipkins falls". New Zealand Herald.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
- ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (51.5%) strengthen lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42%". Roy Morgan. 9 February 2024.
- ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First with majority support of 51.5% ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42.5%". Roy Morgan. 30 January 2024.
- ^ Coughlan, Thomas (12 December 2023). "Support for Christopher Luxon drops, NZ First overtakes Act in new poll". New Zealand Herald.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 9 November 2023.
- ^ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.