Template:2020 NZ election forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National[1] and that Botany will be returned to National,[2][3] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[4]
| Source | Seats in Parliament[i] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | MRI | Total | ||
| Roy Morgan[5] Sep 2020 poll |
38 | 61 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 120 | Labour (61) |
| 1 News–Colmar Brunton[6] 10–14 Oct 2020 poll |
40 | 59 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Green (70) |
| Newshub–Reid Research[7] 8–15 Oct 2020 poll |
41 | 61 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 120 | Labour (61) |
| 2020 result | 33 | 65 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 120 | Labour (65) |
- ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
References
- ^ Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ "National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.
- ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.
- ^ Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
- ^ O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.