Talk:Win probability added

Should this article discuss limitations of the WPA statistic? Does the statistic unfairly weigh the offensive accomplishments over the defensive ones?

For example, in the second game of the 1972 World Series, the Athletics were leading the Reds 2-0 in the bottom of the ninth inning. The leadoff man for the Reds singled, and then Denis Menke drove a long fly to left, and Joe Rudi leapt up and caught it. The game ended with the Athletics barely ahead, 2-1, and it was commonly accepted, at the time, that Rudi's play was the key play of the game.

The WPA does not agree that Rudi's play was the key play. Its estimate is that the play's WPA was 7%, which is high, but no higher than the play that led to the last out, and significantly lower than the highest WPA of the game, which was a single by "Catfish" Hunter in the top of the second (12%).

I won't disagree without discussion, but does anyone have any explanation? Ekac (talk) 15:21, 21 November 2009 (UTC)