Talk:Vaccine trial

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Success for each phase?

I was a bit surprised to see there's no information about the general transition rates from Phase I/II, Phase II/III, III/approved, and then approved/phase IV trials.

Like, for every 1000 vaccines/drugs in phase 1 trial, how many go on to phase 2? In phase 2, how many go on to phase 3? etc.

A quick google search came up with nothing, so I figured I'd ask around here since you would know where to find that information. Interest in the article will be high during the pandemic, and I feel that's something many will wonder about. Headbomb {t · c · p · b} 21:26, 26 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, and I'm also curious about the negative rate? e.g. how often does phase III find that not only the candidate not work but it is also harmful? SuaveLion21 (talk) 21:05, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Headbomb, I wonder if the problem is that there aren't 1000 vaccines going into Phase 1 trials. For non-vaccines, the rates vary over time, by type of drug (biologics have better success rates these days than small-molecule drugs), type of disease (some diseases are just hard), etc., but you could estimate that if you start a Phase 1 trial, then you have approximately a 10% chance of being allowed to sell the drug. WhatamIdoing (talk) 22:17, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Anyone have thoughts about using some of the data in this source for success rates? https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845 It looks to cover 15 years worth of trial data. Jiltedsquirrel (talk) 04:43, 12 December 2022 (UTC)[reply]