Talk:The Incident (2014 film)
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I think the assertion that Marco and Roberto are supposed to be the same person, and Daniel and Oliver another person, is a misreading of the scene where both Marco and Roberto are explaining their individual histories in parallel. Rather, Daniel and Marco are the same person, indicated both by the story itself and by the fact that the adult Daniel and Marco were played by Raúl Méndez.
Roberto, Daniel/Marco, and Oliver/Karl each lived through two Incidents: once as the younger, unknowing participant, and once, under a new identity, as the instigator of the Incident. The red books, which appeared at the end of the Incident along with the surviving participants' new clothing (and names) indicated where to find the people with whom they were supposed to create a new Incident, and the manner in which one of them would be sacrificed to begin the Incident.
Roberto lived through the 1949 Incident on the raft as a young boy, presumably under a different name; once his instructor died and the Incident ended, he became Roberto. Roberto then caused the 1983 Incident with Daniel; when Roberto died, that Incident ended and Daniel took on the persona of Marco when he found the police car. Marco caused the ca. 2018 Incident with Oliver; when Marco died, that incident ended and Oliver became Karl when he entered the elevator. Karl then began the ca. 2052 Incident with the newlyweds.
(In addition to the scene showing the adult Daniel cutting off his hair and transforming into Marco as we saw him in the beginning of the film, their common identity was hinted at early on, when Marco tore up a miniature playing card that had fallen out of his wallet; later, it was revealed to be one of the miniature playing cards with which Daniel had practiced magic tricks.)