Talk:The Coming Collapse of China

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Update

Gordan Chang's later predictions on the "coming collapse" should be added in the update section, as Gordan is still often interviewed by the media on this.

There's a comment in the talk page for Gordan Chang's article which lists many examples, so I'll copy and paste that comment here:

"Specific predictions and their dates should be added. According to the page on his book, The Coming Collapse of China, he predicted the collapse of China in 2006, 2011, 2012, 2016, and 2017. It appears that his book (written in 2001) predicted the collapse of China between 2006 to 2011. Then in late 2011, he published this Foreign Policy article claiming China would collapse in 2012. I also found this prediction during his 2013 Fox Business appearance where he predicted China would crash in 2013-2014. The 2016 and 2017 predictions I'm not sure about, it could be referring to his 2016 National Interest article, and he does often do interviews where he predicts a coming collapse, such as this one and this one. 101.98.151.109 (talk) 19:53, 29 September 2019 (UTC)"[reply]

119.224.86.137 (talk) 22:58, 21 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

It's simply a bad book. Not that I don't believe the prediction, that China will fail. But he does not even touch the relevant reasons and cites the wrong ones instead. No wonder that his time schedule proves ridiculous. Western academic "expertise" on China is in a deplorable state. Scientists rely too much on speculation and know too little about the intricacies of everyday life in China - which would provide ample reason to construct a failure theory. Reasons for failure lie in the abyssmally bad legal system (no functioning compulsory execution to get your money, e.g.) and in the growing indebtedness of private households (see report of the San Francisco FED of a few years ago). Equally important is the dwindling trust in the real estate system (clients pay for houses that are to be built later), or the sick health system. Enough has been said about the banks and about the catastrophic education system which ruins parents financially and pupils psychologically. But it's impossible to forecast exactly when Chinese failure will occur. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2A02:1210:3ECB:2600:D979:5C3:2416:4F34 (talk) 17:30, 16 October 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Now the economic shutdowns of all sectors in China proves that Gordon Chang has been correct for the then ongoing covered-up, secret crisis across China’s economy with the exception of the exact date of the collapse of China economy.

The real reason of his failure was that he overly underestimated Chinese Communist Party’s extraordinary ability of falsifying economic data and inhibiting as well as prohibiting the reporting of the actual numbers of 1) private, local-governmental and national, debts, 2) domestic GDP, 3) layoffs and unemployment, 4) housing markets including the total numbers of ghost cities and unfulfilled apartments and 5) Consumer Confidence Index by foreign economists and reporters.

Over the past decade and more, CCP successfully covered up all the bad news while trying to “correct” each wrong by pumping more money into it or delay the appearance of finale. Then in 2019, COVID-19, which didn’t affect Western free countries as severe as China, came, stay and broke the camel back!

As a Chinese Idiom says “Paper (cheats and lies) never covers up Fires (bad news and catastrophic crisis)!” 123.195.162.43 (talk) 04:29, 3 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]