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Content deleted on January 26, 2020

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CONTEXT: Lots of content deleted (by me) on January 26, 2020. Placing here, because it's important to be able to find this information easily. -- Valjean (talk) 17:00, 3 April 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Origins did not involve dossier

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See also: Russia investigation origins counter-narrative

Although the dossier later became one factor among many in the Russia investigation, it had no role in the opening of the investigation on July 31, 2016, as top FBI officials received the dossier the following September.[1] This fact has been the subject of intense discussion and controversy, largely fueled by a conspiracy theory[2][3] pushed by Trump,[4] Fox News,[5] the dossier was not the trigger for the opening of the FBI's "Crossfire Hurricane" counterintelligence investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election campaign.[6][7][8]

Rather, the actual trigger was a series of comments made in May 2016 by Trump foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos to Alexander Downer, a top Australian diplomat, during a night of "heavy drinking at an upscale London bar".[9][10] Shep Smith, an anchor at Fox News, confirmed this series of events, directly contradicting Trump's and Fox News host Sean Hannity's false claims that the dossier was the trigger for the start of the investigation.[11] John Sipher reported that Papadopoulos bragged "that the Trump campaign was aware the Russian government had dirt on Hillary Clinton"[12] in the form of "thousands of emails" stolen from Clinton which could be used to damage her campaign. Papadopoulos had learned this about three weeks earlier. Two months later, when WikiLeaks started releasing DNC emails, Australian officials alerted the Americans about Papadopoulos' remarks.[9][10] Over a year later, Papadopoulos was arrested on July 27, 2017,[13] and in October 2017, Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and became a cooperating witness in Mueller's investigation.[9][13]

In early February 2018, the Nunes memo stated the information on George Papadopoulos "triggered the opening of" the original FBI investigation in late July 2016 into links between the Trump campaign and Russia.[14][15][16] In late February 2018, a rebuttal memo by Democrats in the House Intelligence Committee stated that "Christopher Steele's reporting ... played no role in launching the counterintelligence investigation ... In fact, Steele's reporting did not reach the counterintelligence team investigating Russia at FBI headquarters until mid-September 2016, more than seven weeks after the FBI opened its investigation, because the probe's existence was so closely held within the FBI."[17][18]

In April 2018, the House Intelligence Committee, then in Republican control, released a final report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential American election, which said the House Intelligence Committee found that "in late July 2016, the FBI opened an enterprise CI [counterintelligence] investigation into the Trump campaign following the receipt of derogatory information about foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos".[19][20][21]

In December 2018, former FBI Director James Comey testified before the House Judiciary Committee and described the origins of the Russia investigation. He described how the investigation initially looked at four Americans, and that it was not prompted by the dossier, but by comments made by Papadopoulos: "It was weeks or months later that the so-called Steele dossier came to our attention," he added. He also said Obama had "never ordered him to have the FBI surveil or infiltrate the Trump campaign."[22][10][9]

Other factors also played into the FBI's decision to investigate Russian interference and the Trump campaign: intelligence from friendly governments, especially the British and Dutch, and information about Page's Moscow trip. Steele's first report was sent to Fusion GPS, dated June 20, 2016, and FBI agents first interviewed Steele in October 2016.[10] The New York Times reported on February 14, 2017, that the FBI had made contact with some of Steele's sources.[23] CNN later reported that the FBI had used the dossier to bolster its existing investigations.[24][25]

Philip Bump has explained how there "is no evidence the investigation stemmed from the dossier". He wrote that Lisa Page testified that Bruce Ohr was not the FBI's initial source for their first copies of the early portions of the dossier, but rather that they came from Steele's FBI handler "in mid- to late September", long after the start of the Russia investigation in late July. After establishing that the dossier was not the genesis of the investigation, Bump describes a number of factors which influenced the start of the Russia investigation: Downer's meeting with Papadopoulos, which Papadopoulos lied about; that Manafort had already been on the FBI's radar since the spring of 2016 due to a criminal investigation of his pro-Russian work in Ukraine, connections which Manafort lied about; the suspicious travels to Russia and secret meetings with possible Russian agents by Michael Flynn and Carter Page, which they lied about. Page had already been on the FBI's radar, including a FISA warrant, since 2013 as a possible Russian agent and target for recruitment by Russian intelligence. In October 2016, after Page had left the Trump campaign in September, he became the subject of renewed FISA warrants, but this was only partially related to the dossier,[26] as discussions with the Justice Department about seeking a wiretap on Page had already started in August 2016, a month before FBI agents received the dossier.[27] Bump concludes by noting how all these "multiple questionable points of contact with Russian actors" by the Trump campaign justified the Russia investigation, without the dossier being a factor.[26]

The FBI opened its investigation in late July 2016, and The Washington Post noted that this timing is "significant, given the FBI did not seek authorization to conduct surveillance on Page until three months later, on Oct. 21, 2016." The Democrats asserted that the Nunes memo "shows the Russia investigation would be underway with or without the surveillance of Page, and—more critically—even if the government had never seen the dossier of information about Trump that was compiled by Christopher Steele, a former British spy."[28]

In a January 2, 2018, CNN panel discussion, Elizabeth Foley, a Florida International University law professor, falsely alleged that the FISA warrant on Page was "all based on a dossier", adding "That's what Jim Comey has suggested." She also cited reports from CNN and The New York Times. PolitiFact concluded that her claim about Comey was unsubstantiated, and according to CNN, the dossier was only "part of the justification", and that The New York Times report did not mention the dossier. PolitiFact rated her claim "Mostly False".[29]

The report of a review of the Russia investigation by Inspector General Michael E. Horowitz was published on December 9, 2019. According to those briefed about it, it concludes that "none of the evidence used to open the investigation" came from the C.I.A. or Trump–Russia dossier.[7]

The Russian election interference investigation's later relation to the dossier

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By late July 2016, "the CIA had set up a special group with the NSA and FBI ... to investigate the extent of Russian intervention in the presidential election." Former CIA director John Brennan then "ensured that all information about links between the Trump campaign and people working for or on behalf of Russian intelligence went to the FBI."[30]

These links between Trump associates and Russian officials were numerous.[31][32][33][34][35] Politico keeps a very detailed running tally of the involved persons, and, as of November 8, 2018, they found "332 people connected to the Russia probes ... 84 [of whom were] associated with [Trump's] 2016 campaign".[34] Julian Borger reported that in Brennan's testimony before the House intelligence committee, he made it clear "that he was alarmed by the extent of contacts between the Trump team and Moscow," and that this justified the FBI inquiry.[30]

Their secret nature was especially alarming, with one intercepted conversation between Michael Flynn and Russian ambassador Kislyak, which Flynn lied about, raising "grave concerns about Russians' secret and frequent contact with Trump allies and advisers during the campaign and before his inauguration."[31]

The FBI has resisted FOIA requests which would force it to reveal classified details of its investigation, including its efforts to disprove or confirm allegations in the dossier. This resistance was approved by U.S. District Court Judge Amit P. Mehta, but a move by Trump to declassify some of this material, and a following FOIA lawsuit by journalist Josh Gerstein and a pro-transparency group, the James Madison Project, resulted in a ruling which would allow some declassification. The irony of the situation was noted by Brad Moss, a lawyer involved in that lawsuit: "It will be rather ironic if the president's peripheral actions that resulted in this ruling wind up disclosing that the FBI has been able to corroborate any of the 'salacious' allegations."[36]

On August 28, 2018, Bruce Ohr, former head of the Justice Department's Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Force, testified at a closed-door interview with Congressmen that he had "passed on 'dossier'-linked information to the FBI", although the "first known contact between Ohr and the FBI about Steele's information" wasn't until November 21/22, 2016.[37] By that time, the FBI's investigation had already been underway for four months, and the FBI had cited "previously-obtained information from the 'dossier'" to support secret surveillance of Carter Page.[37] Contrary to a conspiracy theory promoted by Trump, there is no evidence that Ohr was involved in the start of the Russia probe.[3] According to a congressional source speaking to ABC News, Ohr had "little impact" on the investigation.[38]

On September 1, 2018, congressional sources relayed to the Associated Press that Ohr told members of Congress he had met Steele over breakfast on July 30, 2016, along with Nellie Ohr and a Steele associate. At that time Steele revealed that he had been told by a former head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service[39] that the Russians "had Trump over a barrel", an assertion that Steele echoed in his dossier. Ohr also said Steele told him Page met with "higher-level Russian officials than [Page] had acknowledged".[40]

Special counsel investigation

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Main articles: Special Counsel investigation (2017–2019) and Mueller Report

In May 2017, the FBI investigation into Russian interference was taken over by newly-appointed Special Counsel Robert Mueller.[41]

In the summer of 2017, Mueller's team of investigators met with Steele in Europe.[42] According to CNN, the CIA and FBI "took Steele's research seriously enough that they kept it out of" a January 6, 2017, report on Russian meddling issued by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence "in order to not divulge which parts of the dossier they had corroborated and how."[42]

On October 4, 2017, it was reported that the Mueller probe had taken over the FBI inquiry into the dossier,[43] and according to Senate Intelligence Committee vice chairman Mark Warner (D-VA), the Mueller team investigated the dossier's allegations.[41]

As some leads stemming from the dossier had already been followed and confirmed by the FBI, legal experts have said that Special Counsel investigators are obligated to follow any leads the dossier has presented them with, irrespective of what parties financed it in its various stages of development, or "[t]hey would be derelict in their duty if they didn't."[41][44][45]

The Mueller Report, a summary of the findings of the Special Counsel investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections, contained passing references to some of the dossier's allegations but little mention of its more sensational claims.[46]

Subject of the Nunes memo

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Main article: Nunes memo

On February 2, 2018, the Nunes memo, a four-page memorandum written for U.S. Representative Devin Nunes by his staff, was released to the public. Referring to the dossier, the memo states that the FBI "may have relied on politically motivated or questionable sources" to obtain a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant in October 2016 and in three subsequent renewals on Carter Page in the early phases of the FBI's investigation of the Russian interference.[47] The Nunes memo said there was excessive and improper dependence on the Trump–Russia dossier.

Former FBI general counsel James A. Baker and Julian Sanchez, a senior fellow at Cato Institute, both believe that a warrant "could have been obtained even without any of Steele's information."[48]

Jane Mayer has quoted Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse: "To impeach Steele's dossier is to impeach Mueller's investigation ... It's to recast the focus back on Hillary", with the Republicans' aim to "create a false narrative saying this is all a political witch hunt". Mayer tied his view directly to Devin Nunes's production of "a report purporting to show that the real conspiracy revolved around Hillary Clinton", falsely alleging that Clinton "colluded with the Russians ...", a claim debunked by Glenn Kessler.[49]

The Nunes memo falsely asserted that "Comey briefed President-elect Trump on a summary of the Steele dossier, even though it was—according to his June 2017 testimony—'salacious and unverified'." Factcheckers have clarified that when Comey said "salacious and unverified", he was referring only to "some personally sensitive aspects of the information" in the dossier, not to the entire dossier.[50][51] Page 95 of the Inspector General's report backs up this interpretation.[52]

The Nunes memo asserted that Andrew McCabe testified to the House Intelligence Committee that "no surveillance warrant [on Carter Page] would have been sought from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) without the Steele dossier information," a wording which is contested by McCabe and Congressman Eric Swalwell.[53][54] Because McCabe testified in a classified session, no transcript has yet been released to verify this assertion. In a CNN interview, McCabe asserted that his answers had been twisted by House Republicans:

We started the investigations without the dossier. We were proceeding with the investigations before we ever received that information. ... Was the dossier material important to the package? Of course, it was. As was every fact included in that package. Was it the majority of what was in the package? Absolutely not.[53]

When he was later asked about his testimony by investigators for Inspector General Horowitz, McCabe said "that his view was that the FBI would have 'absolutely' sought FISA authority on Carter Page, even without the Steele reporting, based upon Page's historical interactions with known Russian intelligence officers and the fact that Page told known Russian intelligence officers about the FBI's knowledge of those interactions."[52]

Eric Swalwell, a member of the Committee, also said McCabe's testimony was mischaracterized.[54]

Amid assertions in the Nunes memo and from others that the dossier's use in the Carter Page FISA warrant request was improper—countered by Democrats' assertions that there was nothing improper—on April 6, 2018, the Justice Department made the FISA application available for all members of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees to review.[55]

A rebuttal from the House Intelligence Committee minority addressed the role of the dossier in seeking the FISA warrants, and said the Justice Department "made only narrow use of information from Steele's sources".[56]

Inspector General's Russian interference and FISA investigation

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Main article: Inspector General report on the Crossfire Hurricane investigation

As part of an investigation into whether the FBI and Justice Department abused the FISA process in their surveillance of Carter Page, investigators from the office of the Justice Department's Inspector General, Michael E. Horowitz, interviewed Steele for 16 hours over the course of two days in June 2019. This occurred in London and was regarding Steele's dossier. They were especially "focused on gauging Steele's credibility as a source" for the FBI. They "delved into Steele's extensive work on Russian interference efforts globally, his intelligence-collection methods and his findings about Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, who the FBI ultimately surveilled." They found his testimony surprising[57] and his "information sufficiently credible to have to extend the investigation".[58]

The Inspector General's report was released on December 9, 2019, and concluded that "none of the evidence used to open the [Russian interference] investigation" in July 2016 came from the C.I.A. or Trump–Russia dossier.[7]

James Comey said the dossier did "not [play] a huge part of the presentation to the [FISA] court", but "it was the one that convinced the lawyers to move forward." The statement seems to "align with" the Horowitz report statement: "We determined that the Crossfire Hurricane team's receipt of Steele's election reporting on September 19, 2016 played a central and essential role in the FBI's and Department's decision to seek the FISA order."[59][52] The exact role played was in how "the Steele reporting 'pushed [the FISA proposal] over the line' in terms of establishing[60] FISA's low bar[48] for probable cause."[60]

According to an OGC Attorney, before the Steele dossier was received by the agents seeking the FISA application, the existing evidence for probable cause was "probably 50/50". He also believed that:

it was a combination of the Steele reporting, Carter Page's historical contacts with Russian intelligence officers, and statements Page made in October 2016 during a consensually monitored meeting with an FBI CHS ...just before the FISA application was filed with the court, that made the OGC Attorney comfortable about establishing probable cause.[52]

Horowitz did find that "one portion of the first FISA application ... relied entirely on" information from the dossier,[59] and the Inspector General's report states that four reports from the dossier were used in the FISA applications (Reports 95, 100, 101, and 102), and that "the FBI relied upon Report 95 to support probable cause in the Carter Page FISA applications." Report 95 "cited repeatedly to information provided by 'Source E'", who is also referred to as "Person 1" in the Inspector General's report.[52] Sources D and E have been identified as Sergei Millian,[61][62][63][64] who was an unwitting source, as he reportedly revealed information to an associate, who then shared the information with Christopher Steele. Due to his close association with Russian leadership and numerous Trump campaign aides, he provided an insider's point of view about the inner workings of the campaign and Russian plans.[65] Millian has denied being a dossier source.[64]

As a result of the Inspector General's reviews of the last four FISA warrants on Carter Page, the Justice Department reported to the FISA court that the last two, and possibly last three, warrants were not justified, as the evidence that had become available by that time did not "establish probable cause to believe that Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power".[66] It was further stated that the last two "were not valid because the government made 'material misstatements' in obtaining them".[67]

References

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  49. ^ Cite error: The named reference Mayer_3/12/2018 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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