Talk:Pre-election pendulum for the 2019 Australian federal election

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Redistributions

There have been redistributions that affect many of these seats, one has been abolished, two have been created and several others have had their names changed.--Grahame (talk) 03:01, 18 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Grrr, I know. There really is no point in creating these pendulums by duplicating the last post-election/pre-redistribution pendulum—it's just misleading and confusing. Antony Green was quite critical of our tendency to do this a few years ago. Anyway, I'll update the pendulum today. --Canley (talk) 02:49, 26 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

I've just updated and corrected the pendulum to take the redistributions into account. Just a note for anyone "updating" this pendulum based on by-elections—it is supposed to represent a uniform two-party swing from the 2016 election, so please don't use the by-election result margins, or even the two-candidate margins from 2016. --Canley (talk) 04:25, 26 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

The Queensland seats of Moreton and Rankin seem to be missing from this analysis. The Victorian seat of Holt also appears to be missing OldBryan (talk) 11:39, 31 August 2018 (UTC).[reply]

Thanks for spotting that, I've fixed these now. --Canley (talk) 23:51, 31 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Just notices the seat of Mallee is listed twice... OldBryan (talk) 11:59, 2 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks, should have been Nicholls. --Canley (talk) 02:17, 3 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Two-candidate-preferred

Don't we normally have the 2CP rather than the 2PP margins for these? Both the 2016 ones do, for example. Seems a bit silly to have Cooper and Wills way up the pendulum when they're actually much closer. Frickeg (talk) 05:56, 26 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, we normally have, and Antony Green did too, although he didn't for this one... he does list the 2CP margin as well though, so could at least do that. It's a good point, Ged Kearney is hardly super-safe on a 22 point 2PP margin when Cooper is 0.6 against the Greens. I'll try and work something out... --Canley (talk) 06:50, 26 August 2018 (UTC)[reply]