Talk:List of storms in the 2006 Pacific hurricane season/February-May

February

Week 1

La Niña Is Here

Report issued by NOAA today says La Niña is most definitely here. -- RattleMan 22:49, 2 February 2006 (UTC)

May

Week 2

4 more days until the season opens up in the EPac! I do think it will be relatively quiet, though, unlike the Atlantic... CrazyC83 17:24, 11 May 2006 (UTC)

90E.INVEST

AoI:05W2A-E: Off Central America

This is the low coming out of the Caribbean and crossing into the Pacific. The first real shot of tropical weather in the Pacific in 2006. CrazyC83 17:24, 11 May 2006 (UTC)

It's bubbling up alright, but its part of the ITCZ now, I doubt it will break free from that and develop. Right now it's way down at 6 north- I don't think any storms have ever developed that close to the equator (correct me if I'm wrong).

Nope, I just found one, They're EXTREMELY rare, but storms CAN form south of 10N: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Vamei -Winter123 19:16, 12 May 2006 (UTC)

Don't forget Ivan - he not only formed around 9N, he became a Category 4 at that latitude! CrazyC83 02:50, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

Oh, come on... go for Cyclone Agni - that one formed just north of the equator - in fact the circulation was partly in both hemispheres.--Nilfanion (talk) 19:24, 12 May 2006 (UTC)

It does have warm water working for it, so all it needs to do is break free of the ITCZ... CrazyC83 04:26, 13 May 2006 (UTC)

I was reading up on both of them after I posted the link- Even though Agni existed closest to the equator, Typhoon Vamei FORMED closest to the equator- and since we are talking about the possibility of this FORMING, Vamei was more appropriate. *sticks tongue out* -Winter123 04:33, 13 May 2006 (UTC)

That blob is quite impressive-looking, but the models don't seem to do a whole lot with it. They seem to keep it stationary or move it slightly to the east without much strengthening. --Coredesat 10:32, 13 May 2006 (UTC)

90E.INVEST

NRL now has it as an invest! -- RattleMan 18:54, 14 May 2006 (UTC)

Click or die!! :P -Winter123 21:04, 14 May 2006 (UTC)

Wow! Beating the start of the season by 12 hours too... CrazyC83 01:32, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

It looks pretty good, actually. It would not surprise me to get Aletta from this system. —Cuiviénen^T|C, Monday, 15 May 2006 @ 01:47 UTC

If it breaks away from the ITCZ, I think it has an excellent chance of becoming Aletta. However, it needs to do that first. Chance of becoming Aletta IMO: 30%. CrazyC83 01:54, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

Poof? (It looks quite terrible) -- Yarrah 07:31, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

From the first TWO of the season (released at 4 AM PDT): NSLE _(T+C) at 12:58 UTC (2006-05-15) A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

It winds have decreased, but it is becoming a bit more organized. Icelandic Hurricane #12 19:49, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

Models are in consensus though that it does nothing... CrazyC83 19:52, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

It's looking much more consolidated than it did last night. -- RattleMan 22:04, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

We should wait until the next TWC and hear what the NHC has to say about it. Miss Madeline | Talk to Madeline 22:53, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

From the next TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES

SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Looks like Aletta will have to wait. Hurricanehink (talk) 00:01, 16 May 2006 (UTC)

Not an INVEST anymore -- Yarrah 18:57, 16 May 2006 (UTC)

Week 3

I started the areas of interest page to keep in line with the Atlantic format, even if it is less cluttered here (far fewer overall areas to watch and a far greater percentage become tropical cyclones). See above for the link. CrazyC83 00:23, 21 May 2006 (UTC)

Week 4

01E.Aletta

AoI:05W4A-E: Near 10°N/115°W

Same satellite as above shows another system trailing behind it. CrazyC83 01:54, 22 May 2006 (UTC)

91E.INVEST

We have another INVEST. [1] --Ajm⁸¹ 17:51, 23 May 2006 (UTC)

Another solid burst of convection. This definitely has better potential than the last system. I'd give it a 50% chance of developing. CrazyC83 20:06, 23 May 2006 (UTC)

I just saw this on sattelite- It definitely has a weak surface low now, and it is in almost no shear. I think this will develop!! I'd say 90% chance.

Go 2nd Western Hemisphere storm of 2006 WOOOOOOOOO!! -Winter123 23:10, 23 May 2006 (UTC)

Umm number 3 surely? (The Atlantic invest plus these 2...)--Nilfanion (talk) 23:15, 23 May 2006 (UTC)

WIll it make it to Aletta? O.O That's the question ... then the hurricane season will truly begin. SargeAbernathy 23:52, 23 May 2006 (UTC)

It is a coin toss in my opinion right now. It's got plenty of time to do so too... CrazyC83 00:24, 24 May 2006 (UTC)

By "storm" I meant Tropical Storm Zeta, not invests... but now it looks to be moving west into cooler waters. My hopes are shattered once again... *cries*

lol. Not really. -Winter123 20:10, 24 May 2006 (UTC)

10 PM PDT May 24 TWO: DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. NSLE _(T+C) at 05:55 UTC (2006-05-25)

Nope, It stalled again, and it appears to be wrapping up now. It's looking like aletta to me. -Winter123 19:32, 25 May 2006 (UTC)

Almost there according to the latest TWO! It could become TD1-E soon!

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM...HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

CrazyC83 17:48, 26 May 2006 (UTC)

Hmm... the convection is east of the surface low... but it still looks to be depression-worthy to me. It may go on land before it is declared one though. -Winter123 19:26, 26 May 2006 (UTC)

GFDL strengthens it to a Category 1 hurricane and brings it ashore just east of Acapulco... CrazyC83 22:01, 26 May 2006 (UTC)

Not anymore. Icelandic Hurricane #12_(talk) 00:29, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Wow.... i really think this one will turn into something I give it a 70% chance of developing--HurricaneRo 00:17, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Oh yea. Well I give it a 95% chance of developing; winds are up to 30 mph and a pressure of 1006 mbar. It's look good. Icelandic Hurricane #12_(talk) 00:28, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE DISTURBED WEATHER... WHICH INCLUDES WINDS OF 25-35 MPH...IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. WHILE UPPER-LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM... HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. *its getting better organized and now it has tropical depression winds!!!*--HurricaneRo 00:32, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

I think that it will become a TS with winds 0f 60 mph--HurricaneRo 00:35, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

I'd say 45mph at the absolute most... probably 40. it's running out of time to get it's act together. -Winter123

Tropical Depression One-E

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. -- Yarrah 09:55, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Wait... the NHC has removed it from the site. A false alarm? NSLE _(T+C) at 10:02 UTC (2006-05-27)

It's back. NSLE _(T+C) at 10:03 UTC (2006-05-27)

I don't see it, where? Link please. --Golbez 10:08, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml? NSLE _(T+C) at 10:11 UTC (2006-05-27)

NSLE, that's nice, but I meant a direct link to the advisory. If it were on NHC, I wouldn't need a direct link. It wasn't. In fact, you yourself had difficulty finding it; the NHC's website is notoriously fickle. --Golbez 15:50, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Let the games begin... bob rulz 11:12, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Indeed, here we go... -- RattleMan 13:36, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Cool it formed...hopefullly it won't affect Mexico all that much, Now I think it won't get stronger than 50 mph--HurricaneRo 13:38, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Dicussion #2:

THE CURRENT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT FOR A 30- AND 35-KT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 96 HOURS...AND THIS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IF THE CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO.

-- RattleMan 14:29, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Now theres a tropical storm watch for Mexico!!!!--HurricaneRo 14:42, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

YAY!! ... except for Mexico, and all...(clears throat nervously)...Oh, forget it I'm HAPPY!! →Cyclone1→ 14:55, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

No surprise. It seemed to be quite imminent that it was going to happen. CrazyC83 14:59, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Umm... do we really need to be quoting the NHC this much? It just seems ridiculous... we can just go to the NHC and read it for ourselves (I'm sure we all do) without needing to reproduce large quantities of the text here. Its only a tropical cyclone people.--Nilfanion (talk) 17:10, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Aletta

NHC now has it as TS Aletta! [2] -- RattleMan 17:53, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Yep, surprised they didn't go ahead with a full special advisory for such... CrazyC83 18:03, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

I've created a page for ACE calculations. CrazyC83 18:17, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Should we update the ACE in the season box for every advisory, or wait until the storm dissipates? --Ajm⁸¹ 21:19, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Update as often as possible. It doesn't have to be constant, but certainly there is nothing wrong with updating it at the advisories. CrazyC83 21:40, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Interesting how it's forecast to stay just offshore. There will be some major flooding. -Winter123 19:33, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Interesting text in the latest discussion. "LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT ALETTA WILL CROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE." —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Code1390 (talk • contribs) .

I don't think she will cross over but I think that Aletta will make a breif landfall than turn back out to the pacific, but u never know. If she does i wonder if she will regenerate...has that ever happened?? —The preceding unsigned comment was added by HurricaneRo (talk • contribs) .

Yes, in 1989. That year, Hurricane Cosme crossed Mexico and became Tropical Storm Allison. Omni ND 21:10, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

If Aletta successfully crosses Mexico and remains at least a tropical depression the whole time, it remains Aletta in the Gulf. If Aletta degenerated into a wave or low and regenerated in the Gulf, it would be Alberto. CrazyC83 21:38, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Aletta is forecast to become a 60 mph tropical storm so I think Mexico mighthave to issue a hurricnae watch or warning soon--HurricaneRo 21:09, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

The NHC advisory says "ALETTA HAS BEEN MEANDERING BUT APPEARS TO BE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR."[3], but the 6 was change to a 5 in the article. I think we should use what they say if they provide it. --Ajm⁸¹ 00:55, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

3 mph X 1.6 = 4.8 km/h, unless they rounded it down to 3 from, say, 3.49 (3.49 X 1.6 = 5.58 km/h). We should really get the NHC to start using decimals. NSLE _(T+C) at 01:04 UTC (2006-05-28)

Not use decimals, but use the proper measurements and correct rounding. CrazyC83 01:57, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

Look at the latest 5-day warning cone, as of 8 pm PT. Thing looks like it'll stall off the coast of Mexico Monday or Tuesday through Thursday. This could be a deadly storm. NSLE _(T+C) at 02:56 UTC (2006-05-28)

Looks like Aletta might not make landfall anymore --HurricaneRo 14:20, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

I don't think it was ever forecasted to, but the farther it stays away, the stronger it may get... CrazyC83 16:44, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

If it just keeps sitting there, it has a shot at becoming a minimal hurricane. -Winter123 19:27, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

A 40% of becoming a hurricane at the moment. I very much doubt it will attempt a crossover though, given how the forecast is for Aletta to turn round and head out west. Pobbie Rarr 23:03, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

It appears to me that conditions are slowly becoming more favorable. -Winter123 01:38, 29 May 2006 (UTC)

"...Aletta weakens as it drifts westward..." that was unexpected--HurricaneRo 14:46, 29 May 2006 (UTC)

Yep, starting to look crappier again. -Winter123 16:36, 29 May 2006 (UTC)

It's also turning away from land. No more public advisories, just the basic information from here on. CrazyC83 18:38, 29 May 2006 (UTC)

Why no more Pub. Adv.? It hasn't dissipated, has it? Icelandic Hurricane #12_(talk) 20:44, 29 May 2006 (UTC)

I guess it's because once Pacific storms turn away, they are no threat to land whatsoever. No reason to spend time and money on public advisories when the more detailed forecasts (useful for shipping) are available. There is no public to advise. --Golbez 20:55, 29 May 2006 (UTC)

Well, they issued another one. And plus, they didn't stop issuing adv. last year on storms, right? Icelandic Hurricane #12_(talk) 22:58, 29 May 2006 (UTC)

You're getting mixed up. They stop issuing public advisories, which are only useful if land is threatened but continue to issue the other products - as they give information to shipping. That is the same as last year.--Nilfanion (talk) 23:01, 29 May 2006 (UTC)

Down to a TD and looking pretty dead to me. 2am could be final advisory from my view... CrazyC83 03:50, 30 May 2006 (UTC)

Looks a little organized again than it did at 3am UTC could come back to TS status (VOFFA 07:50, 30 May 2006 (UTC)).

heh, back to looking dead again. VOFFA 17:06, 30 May 2006 (UTC)

Remember, this was a may storm, so you can't expect too much of it. This was one of the few times that the NHC's intensity forecast was actually OVER mine. (Just look at my posts when it was an Invest- I thought it would make 45mph at max, and I was right!) I got a bit over excited when NHC called for it to get near-hurricane status. I know now not to trust them quite so fully.

I can't even find a hint of circulation now. It's gone. -Winter123 19:46, 30 May 2006 (UTC)

We can definitely kiss Aletta goodbye now. CrazyC83 04:01, 31 May 2006 (UTC)

Track Map

Isn't anyone going to make a track image for Tropical Storm Aletta? Alastor Moody 02:10, June 2, 2006 (UTC)

Christ, give us a few minutes. --Golbez 03:14, 2 June 2006 (UTC)

Okay, I'm not trying to put pressure, but just want to add one, okay? Thanks. Alastor Moody 02:56, June 2, 2006 (UTC)

You're welcome to do it. --Golbez 04:01, 2 June 2006 (UTC)

What's the big hurry? HERE is one. It's not good, but since you have to have it RIGHT THIS SECOND, it's something. -Winter123 04:37, 3 June 2006 (UTC)

Sorry if I snapped at you, but yeah, be patient. We get to things when we do. :) --Golbez 16:39, 3 June 2006 (UTC)

Nah, I was talking to Professor Moody over there. (With his wierd eye) -Winter123 01:35, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

Uh, yeah, I wasn't apologizing to YOU. :P --Golbez 05:17, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

Eh, whatever. Go slay a dragon or something. -Winter123 01:39, 5 June 2006 (UTC)