Talk:Intelligence analysis management
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[edit]- This article deals with the roles of processing/analysis in the real-world intelligence cycle as a part of intelligence cycle management. See Intelligence analysis for a discussion of the techniques of analysis. For a hierarchical list of intelligence cycle articles, see the intelligence cycle management hierarchy.
The above is to help understand the context. Potential editors in this, the analysis area, will want to start looking at the more specific Intelligence analysis article, and also, in the Intelligence collection management article, rating raw reports.
Tweaking the intelligence analysis subhierarchy
[edit]Thanks to AzureCitizen for the up-front index hierarchy for this and the top-level article of the series. I certainly don't oppose breaking out articles on techniques of analysis, and making them subordinate to this one. User Chance.williams made some initial efforts in this area, and the idea isn't bad.
For example, some of the "how to" might move into a sub-article, which would pick up analytical tradecraft (a very different subject than Clandestine HUMINT Operational Techniques, which I've started to write). I tend to think the cognitive trap area is so important that it should be in this article, but perhaps someone with more background in cognitive psychology might be able to improve the presentation and put it in a subarticle -- please, with lots of wikilinks, because the cognitive traps show how analysts come to the wrong conclusions.
There's also an area, discussed both in the top-level Intelligence cycle management and Intelligence dissemination management, that deals about the concerns about intelligence consumers (e.g., policymakers) either refuse to believe intelligence analyses, or "cherry pick" to find reports that support their preconceived idea, which is not necessarily that which is true in the real world. Howard C. Berkowitz (talk) 23:01, 17 November 2007 (UTC)
Removed text
[edit]From header -- not the place for lengthy quotations:
"Intelligence analysts are needed because policy officials face challenges that analysts can help them manage, Kent would argue, through mastery of background knowledge, evaluation and structuring of all-source material, and trade craft expertise. While attentive to problems not yet on the policymaker’s screen, the analyst’s first responsibility is to accommodate clients by producing assessments timed to their decision cycle and focused on their learning curve. This includes providing “actionable” intelligence that can help with curbing threats and seizing policy opportunities." [1]
"He would have opposed providing analyses that were intended for use by one set of policy players to force its views on others. For estimation analysis, this requires paying serious attention to seemingly less likely outcomes. For action analysis, this means identifying and evaluating alternatives, leaving to policy clients the responsibility to recommend and choose.... Kent saw no excuse for policy or political bias. He realized, however, that analytic or cognitive bias was so ingrained in mental processes for tackling complex and fluid issues that it required a continuous, deliberate struggle to minimize... he taught analysts to resist the tendency to see what they expect to see in the information. He urged special caution when a whole team of analysts immediately agrees on an interpretation of yesterday’s development or a prediction about tomorrow’s.... One path he recommended for coping with cognitive bias was to make working assumptions explicit and to challenge them vigorously."[1]
References
- ^ a b Davis, Jack. "Occasional Papers: Volume 1, Number 5: Sherman Kent and the Profession of Intelligence Analysis" (PDF). The Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis.
Baffle gab1978 (talk) 00:25, 24 July 2015 (UTC)
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