Talk:EuroMillions/Archives/2018

Expected value of each entry

It would be interesting to see, for this and other lotteries, what the estimated net expected value of each entry is. The net expected value is the average amount of winnings per entry less the cost of the entry. As someone pointed out in in a forum posting somewhere, it is possible to estimate the number of entries bought by multiplying the number of winning entries for a particular prize by the probability of winning that prize. I did this for Match 2, Match 2 plus 1 star, and Match 3. They all gave a similar estimate, and the average of all the estimates for the lottery on Tuesday the 3rd. October 2017 is that 46408201 entries were bought. The total prize money paid out was £7799405.80p. These are both figures for all of Europe including the UK etc. Dividing the total prize money by the number of entries gives an average winnings of 17p per entry. The entry cost £2.50. So you pay out £2.50 and on average got 17p back. A net EV of minus £2.33p. "Rip off!" is the phrase that springs to mind. However no jackpot was won, so this would make some difference. I do not know how to adjust the EV for the jackpot, but it is unlikely to much narrow the gap between the cost and the return. I would welcome anyone checking my calculations. I bought one entry in the mistaken belief that the rollovers had made the EV positive. The large negative net EV is a deterrent to wasting your money on lotteries. 92.3.49.214 (talk) 08:38, 4 October 2017 (UTC)

After further thought I can calculate the extra EV of the jackpot. The jackpot yesterday was £167million. The chance of any entry winning it was one in 139838160. So on average it was worth £1.19p for each entry. Adding this to the 17p calculated above, means you pay out £2.50 and on average get £1.36p back in winnings. So the net EV is still severely negative. But if and when the Euromillions jackpot has rolled over the maximum number of times and has to be paid out, then assuming that the number of entries is the same, then the jackpot EV would be £168M (I think) divided by 46408201, which is £3.62. Plus the 17p EV from other prizes. So in that situation, the total EV would be £3.79, and thus positive as it is £1.29p greater than the entry cost of £2.50, although ticket sales are likely to be greater in that situation and hence the actual EV will be less and it could therefore still be negative. 92.3.49.214 (talk) 09:22, 4 October 2017 (UTC)

Also need to add on the expected value of the UK Millionaire Maker, for UK purchasers. There are two millionaire winners among all the entries. Two million divided by 46408201 gives an average EV of 4p per entry, which should be added to the above figures. So the EV of the winnings is now £1.40p, but as each entry costs £2.50 then the net EV is minus £1.10p. 92.3.77.2 (talk) 08:23, 5 October 2017 (UTC)

The net expected value is the average amount of winnings per entry less the cost of the entry???? So here are the figures avg winning per entry = 16 euro & cost entry = 2.02 euro = approx. 14 euro. This is over the last 1,100 draws of all country's (& excluded the raffle lotteries). Geertes62. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Geertes62 (talk • contribs) 06:47, 10 September 2018 (UTC)