Talk:Climate change/RFC on Food and Health

RFC: Food and health section

{{RFC|soc|hist|sci}} Which of the following sections should be used in the Food and health section?

Robert McClenon (talk) 04:47, 17 April 2024 (UTC)

A.

Human health

The World Health Organization (WHO) calls climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.[1] Over 100 scientists writing in The Lancet have warned about the irreversible harms it poses.[2] According to the World Economic Forum, the most likely future scenario is of 14.5 million deaths caused by climate change by 2050.[3] Of those, 8.5 million deaths are associated with flooding, mostly because flooded areas expand the range of malaria. By 2050, the range of vector-borne diseases may expand to reach 500 million more people. Saltwater intrusion caused by sea level rise will also add over 800,000 cases of hypertension in coastal areas.[4]

Under the same scenario, around 1.6 million people will die in heatwaves by 2050, primarily those aged 65 and older, and 300,000 more will be killed by wildfires.[5] 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths.[6] By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas.[7]p. 988 These and other climate change impacts are also expected to substantially increase the burden of stress-related mental health conditions.[8] The overall healthcare costs from climate change impacts would exceed 1$ trillion by 2050.[9] If the emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100.p.63

Food supply

Climate change has strong impacts on agriculture in the low latitudes, where it threatens both staple crops and important cash crops like cocoa and coffee.p.788 Agriculture will experience yield gains at high latitudes, but will also become more vulnerable to pests and pathogens.p.794 Extreme weather events adversely affect both food and water security, and climate change increases their frequency.p.9 Food prices spike after climate shocks.p.794 An increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050, primarily in children under five. Many more children would grow up stunted as the result.[10] Under higher warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7-10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available.p.748 Marine animal biomass decreases by 5% with every degree of warming, reducing fishery yields.p.718

In isolation, climate change is expected to increase the risk of hunger for 8 to 80 million people by 2050.p.725 However, total crop yields have been increasing since the middle of the 20th century due to agricultural improvements, and in spite of climate change.[11]p.832 By 2050, the overall number of people suffering from undernourishment and the associated health conditions is likely to decrease by tens to hundreds of millions.[12] Food security only worsens by 2050 in some combinations of severe climate change and low socioeconomic development,[13] but if the emissions remain high, it will likely decrease after 2050. This would be due to diminishing fisheries and livestock counts, and due to more frequent and severe crop failures.p.797

B.

The World Health Organization calls climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.[14] Over 100 scientists writing in The Lancet have warned about the irreversible harms it poses.[15] Extreme weather events affect public health, and food and water security.[16][17]p. 9 Temperature extremes lead to increased illness and death.[18][19] Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.[20]p.9 It can affect transmission of infectious diseases.[21] [22] According to the World Economic Forum, 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050.[23] 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths.[24] By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas.[25]p. 988

While total crop yields have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already slowed the rate of yield growth.p. 9 Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions.p. 9 Agricultural productivity was negatively affected in mid- and low-latitude areas, while some high latitude areas were positively affected. p.9 An increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children.[26] With 2C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7-10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available.p.748 If the emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100.p.63

C. Something else - Please provide a complete section.

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