Talk:2005 Pacific hurricane season/May-November

This is an archive of past discussions about 2005 Pacific hurricane season. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page.

July summary

The July summary is available here.

JULY WAS A RELATIVELY INACTIVE MONTH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN. ONLY TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES...TWO FEWER THAN NORMAL...FORMED
DURING THE MONTH.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME           DATES           MAX WIND (KT)     DEATHS
-------------------------------------------------------
TS DORA        4-6  JUL             35             0
TS EUGENE     18-20 JUL             60             0
-------------------------------------------------------
NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)

In other words, barely notable. --Golbez 21:28, August 1, 2005 (UTC)

There's something out there that the NHC says might do something. There is also another suspect area that just moved into the Central Pacific.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:29, 3 August 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One C

Ah ha! Activity in the central Pacific. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says it could become Tropical Storm Ioke before weakening. [1]

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:13, 3 August 2005 (UTC)

Now that's something you don't see all that often...maybe they realize the action in the Atlantic and Ioke wants a part of it in his own backyard? CrazyC83 03:24, 5 August 2005 (UTC)

It's not expected to become a tropical storm anymore, although it certainly still could. bob rulz 10:00, August 5, 2005 (UTC)

August Storms

The latest update from the NHC has just revealed two new systems that have the potential for development:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

After a slow start, the season seems to have waken up. Boort 00:00, 13 August 2005 (UTC)

Yep, it is waking up. It's getting to be that time of year. The Pacific is more active than the Atlantic right now! However, I expect that in a few day's time the Atlantic will catch up. And an area of possible development south of the Panama/Costa Rica border? How often does that happen? That's pretty far south. Oh, and I noticed that they've said that Fernanda has reached its peak intensity and will now start weakening three discussions in a row. ;-) bob rulz 02:02, August 13, 2005 (UTC)

That possible storm development near the Panama/Costa Rica is rare. Disturbances that are so near the equator tend not to develop into cyclonic storms, as the coriolis effect needed for such rotation is very minimal so close to the equator... one notable exception to that rule was the infamous Hurricane Ivan. Boort 03:25, 13 August 2005 (UTC)

This season is startin' to actually look like something for a change.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:15, 14 August 2005 (UTC)

We have 99E.INVEST off the Mexican coast. --Golbez 18:53, August 15, 2005 (UTC)

Sounds fun.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:44, 15 August 2005 (UTC)

99E Invest

The Center says this storm could become a depression in the next day or so. It's on the 1-2-3 chart. I now feel it deserves its own heading.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 01:35, 16 August 2005 (UTC)

Yep, could be a depression soon. Looks like the Pacific season is finally heating up. Now if only the Atlantic season would do the same.... bob rulz 03:23, August 16, 2005 (UTC)

Be careful here; more storms is definately more exciting, but more storms means more of a chance for us to take a beating.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:49, 16 August 2005 (UTC)

I was just saying that because the Atlantic season all of a sudden got boring after the active July...only one storm that turned out to sea and a tropical depression that didn't regenerate, with nothing looking like it will form...seems pretty quiet out there, don't you think?

Anyway, 99E appears to have fallen apart, just like the other two recent possible tropical systems in the East Pacific. bob rulz 02:30, August 17, 2005 (UTC)

Don't forget about Harvey. And Ten isn't finished yet, the NHC says it is continually getting better organized. The Eastern Pacific also has a disturbance that is organizing rapidly. Look at the tropical weather outlooks.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:39, 17 August 2005 (UTC)

08L.Hilary

TD Eight is now Hilary. The NHC says there's a possibility it could undergo rapid deeping very soon.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:16, 20 August 2005 (UTC)

I'm hoping for something exciting, because the Atlantic basin is pretty boring right now... -- RattleMan 03:26, 20 August 2005 (UTC)

Hilary is now the strongest storm to yet form in the Eastern Pacific. Wow that's sad.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:55, 22 August 2005 (UTC)

09E.Irwin

The Pacific's still spittin' 'em out. This could be fun to watch.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:05, 25 August 2005 (UTC)

Pacific Lull

There has been quite an inactivity right now in the East Pacific region... Does that mean the season will end up Early? If it does, the season ends up with only 9 storms, 3 hurricanes - Adrian, Fernanda and Hilary... Hmmm, then Hilary will be dubbed as the season's most intense storm at 90 knots (Cat. 2), that would be pathetic! This season could be ranked as one of the most inactive seasons in the East Pacific... Not even a single major hurricane yet!... I hope the activity in the East Pacific would resume soon enough. - RoswellAtup 12:04, 9 September 2005

At least it would be good (and ignored, I'm sure) evidence to use against the global-warming-makes-bad-storms folks. --Golbez 02:26, September 9, 2005 (UTC)

Hmmm, if they think that global warming will take most of the blame for an outbreak of storms in the Atlantic, how come it isn't the case in the Pacific? actually it is reducing the number of storm in the East pacific region... Somewhat more like a La Niña pattern...--RoswellAtup 12:45, 9 September 2005

Because they don't really care about the other basins because it doesn't support their claim :) --Golbez 04:54, September 9, 2005 (UTC)

September

95C.INVEST

Whee, a CPac invest! At about 142W 16N, looks to be about, what, 900 miles ESE of Hawaii? --Golbez 04:54, September 9, 2005 (UTC)

Development now looks unlikely, what a surprise.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:23, 11 September 2005 (UTC)

10E.Jova

Yes, I'm bored. I'm menitoning EPac invests. Looks like it's about 200 miles SW of Acapulco, but what do I know about Mexico. --Golbez 18:26, September 9, 2005 (UTC)

From Ocean's Eleven (2001):

Russ and Danny are in a convertable going to a restaurant.

Russ (Pitt): "God, I'm bored."
Danny (Clooney): "You look bored"
Russ: "I am bored"

Ha ha! I love that scene! All right, back on topic. This Invest's got a chance, says the NHC. They say it could develop into a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow. If this develops then I know there will be a lull in the Atlantic, because usually when the East Pacific's active, the Atlantic's inactive.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:23, 11 September 2005 (UTC)

It's now Tropical Depression Ten-E...'bout bloody time!

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:20, 12 September 2005 (UTC)

Make that Tropical Storm Jova...the Eastern Pacific can be boring since storms usually take nearly identical paths...(at least no land in the way!) CrazyC83 03:52, 15 September 2005 (UTC)

Make that Hurricane Jova!

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:50, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

11E.Kenneth

Whooohooo! We're cookin' now in the East Pacific. The NHC's got a lot of stuff to takle now, especially if we get Phillipe out of that tropical wave in the Atlantic.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:46, 15 September 2005 (UTC)

He just seems to want to follow in his little sister's footsteps...also with the lack of any public advisories, you just have to guess distances from land (by calculating based on motion and time, plus figuring it out from on a map)... CrazyC83 14:46, 16 September 2005 (UTC)

The Tropical Weather Outlook has vectors. Here's an example from the latest:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII...AND ON HURRICANE KENNETH...LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

--Golbez 15:51, 16 September 2005 (UTC)

Kenneth is now the strongest hurricane to yet develop in the East Pacific this year: 110 knots (125 mph). I'd love some satellite photos of that if the frickin' Navy site would let me on.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:54, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Looks like it could possibly hit Hawai'i. [2] --Revolución (talk) 16:36, 25 September 2005 (UTC)

Finally that stubborn git crosses 140W. We've got our second CPac storm of the season! -- NSLE | Talk 07:18, 26 September 2005 (UTC)

From the 5pm HST advisory:

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH IS NOT A POWERFUL CYCLONE BUT EVERYONE ON THE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM. KENNETH IS CARRYING VERY MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH A LOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

Translation: Hawaii's starin' down the barrel of a soggy weekend.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:22, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

Kenneth's now been active for a fortnight. One more day and it'll become the longest lived/living storm of the Atlantic AND Pacific seasons (right now Irene in the Atlantic's also on 14 days)... -- NSLE | Talk 10:04, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

12E.Lidia

This is fun.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:06, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lidia, now. --69.86.16.61 02:16, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

It seems the whole world is heating up! What next, a South Atlantic hurricane? CrazyC83 19:15, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

No. --Golbez 20:24, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

It's winter down there. Hurricanes have a hard enough time forming in summer in the south Atlantic.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:26, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

13E.Max

Looks like Lidia may get a husband: Max. And they make a great couple, don't you think? Just curious if any of you know what the record is for the most storms active in the East Pacific at once? We may have to flag down Zo for this one.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:26, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Here's the happy couple! Max has formed. [[3]]

And he promptly beat his wife to death. :D

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:02, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

Not all couples are perfect. But Max will get his soon, with time and maybe some shear. ;) User: tdwuhs

Alright, I was alerted to here - and I did all the searching I could and found nothing online that had a report of how many active cyclones have ever existed in the east Pacific at once... and for me to actually calculate the data myself would take hours of work, and as I basically spent all summer pouring over data, it's not something I'm terribly interested in looking up myself, haha! The Great Zo 13:13, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

14E.Norma

Looks like we're now tracking another Eastern Pacific potential development. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center says "FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 104.0W TO 13.2N 108.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS." (about along the Mexico/Guatemala coast)

How "significant" will significant be? -- NSLE | Talk 04:58, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

Now its a Tropical Depression! Oh my! What a season for both basins! [[4]]

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE VIGOROUS 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO 
MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A SPECIAL 
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM PDT...0500Z...INDICATING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E.

Sure is taking them along time to release that advisory... Cannot wait. Out in 12 minutes or so, hopefully they're punctual.--NSLE | Talk 04:46, 23 September 2005 (UTC)

15E.Otis

Yet another tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific. The Center didn't think the basin would get this active. "Figured wrong Butch".

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:19, 28 September 2005 (UTC)

This one looks interesting too! Not the typical Pacific path... CrazyC83 16:31, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

I bet Mexico's sayin' "Hey! Leave us out of it." They've already been battered by 4 tropical cyclones this year and grazed by another (Dora in July, the only one from the West), including one major hurricane.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:31, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

Different part of Mexico though in this case... CrazyC83 03:47, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

This one will hit the US, though: [5]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL      30/2100Z 21.6N 111.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W    70 KT...NEAR WEST-CENTRAL BAJA
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W    45 KT...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W    25 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
120HR VT     05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W    20 KT...INLAND ERN ARIZONA

Tito xd 23:45, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

Yeah, if it can survive over mountains and extreme amounts of dry air...it also says there is a chance that Otis could become a major hurricane... CrazyC83 00:07, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

Whatever it shall be, it'll more than likely bring wet weather to Arizona, which means me = happy. I LOVE rain. -- RattleMan 00:19, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

It just weakened a bit, so it's unlikely to become a major hurricane.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:50, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

October

Week 1

99E.INVEST

Navy site says 99E. [6] -- RattleMan 19:15, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

Navy site seems to be down, so assuming it's this one (area of possible tropical cyclone formation within 36 hours, per NHC's 1-2-3 rule graphic), I think it might just merge with Stan. In which case, do the NHC name it Stan or Pilar? -- NSLE | Talk 10:17, 3 October 2005 (UTC)

Even if Stan redeveloped without the merge, it would be named Pilar (which is a name for both sexes actually). That's the way it's always been. It would be interesting if they both developed at around the same time, then we'd have Stan/Pilar, and Ramon one above the other.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:28, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

They have merged, this could be bad indeed for Central America. [7] [8]

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:49, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

What would we do if Stan becomes Pilar, do we rename the page Hurricane Stan-Pilar? Personally, unless a storm makes landfall under both names, I prefer keeping one name and redirecting the other - in that case Pilar should redirect to the Stan page. If Stan is still a tropical depression and it enters the Pacific, it keeps its name, correct? CrazyC83 03:09, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

90E.INVEST

Remnants of Hurricane Stan according to the Navy site. Could become a Stan-Pilar duo... CrazyC83 16:20, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Week 2

16E.NONAME

Aaaaand the East Pacific comes alive again after 2 weeks of dormancy. This small, pitiful system is unlikely to do much though. I do smell a Pilar however.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 05:47, 15 October 2005 (UTC)

While I don't pay much attention to the Pacific, I just had to highlight this, from Stacy Stewart's "second final" advisory --

TD-16E IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE

REMNANT LOW... AND THIS WILL BE FINAL ADVISORY... PART DEUX...

ON THIS SYSTEM.

The Great Zo 03:33, 21 October 2005 (UTC)

16E or Pilar?

NHC admitts that it could have briefly been a tropical storm. PDF file. Pilar (as I now call it), had an excellent presentation on the satellite imagry. It had an eye feature for crying out loud! (on inhanced infrared imagery). I'm convinced that 16E was Pilar. Can I prove it? No. But I'm convinced I'm right. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 01:15, 2 December 2005 (UTC)

Can't find it on the seasonal summary... NSLE _{(讨论+extra)} 01:20, 2 December 2005 (UTC)

The post-season report says it (see PDF link). It goes more in depth. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 01:29, 2 December 2005 (UTC)

November

Week 2

93E.INVEST

We finally have another invest, it's listed on the Navy site, and the latest TWO says:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

It's been a VERY long lull in the Pacific. NSLE _(讨论) \^<extra> 06:03, 9 November 2005 (UTC)

Let's hope we get some more fishy-action from the EPac... -- RattleMan 06:06, 9 November 2005 (UTC)

It looks like it's gone now. -- RattleMan 21:12, 11 November 2005 (UTC)