Talk:2005–06 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/September-January (05-06)

September 2005

Week 1

95S.INVEST

We have an invest! The season is about to start.--Holderca1 22:18, 3 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8S
83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED LLCC WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER LAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VALUES OF 850 MB VORTICITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POT-
ENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

JTWC has issued a TCFA and Meteo France is issuing advisories as Tropical Disturbance 01.--Holderca1 18:29, 5 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

November 2005

Week 1

91S.INVEST

One new invest out there. Backup Navy site currently has some information on it. -- RattleMan 05:36, 1 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone 02S

92S.INVEST

And another new invest has just popped up. 91S is still active, also. -- RattleMan 02:29, 4 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY 
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Friday the 4th of November 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low
  Location          :near 08S 097E
                     about 430 kilometres [230 nautical miles] 
                     north of Cocos Islands
  Central Pressure  :1006hPa
  Recent movement   :west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour [6 knots]

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
  Saturday   : low
  Sunday     : low
  Monday     : moderate

REMARKS - most likely movement of the low is towards the
west southwest next 72 hours, slowly intensifying.

-- RattleMan 00:05, 5 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I think it will be named very soon.--Momoko 06:53, 5 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0450UTC 5 NOVEMBER 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
 At 0400UTC Tropical Low located within 20 nautical miles of
 Latitude eight decimal three south [8.3S]
 Longitude ninety seven decimal one east [97.1E]
Recent movement  : south west at 8 knots.
Maximum winds    : 30 knots.
Central pressure : 1002 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 150 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1600UTC 05 November: within 40 nautical miles of 9.1S 95.6E
                     998 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0400UTC 06 November: within 70 nautical miles of 10.1S 94.1E  
                    990 hPa. Winds to 45 knots .
                     
Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 05 November 2005.

WEATHER PERTH

The JTWC has just re-issued its South Indian Ocean outlook at 0800 UTC to upgrade chances of this becoming a cyclone to good, from "fair" at 0600 UTC:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 98.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CON-
VECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE. A 042342Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WESTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

-- NSLE _{(Communicate!)} ^<Contribs> 08:04, 5 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone 02S

Welcome Cyclone 02S!

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721Z NOV 05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 96.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 96.2E
TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
--- 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.5S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 95.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 050721Z NOV 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 050730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//

-- RattleMan 22:44, 5 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

TCWC Perth forecast that 02S will become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hours and exit their AOR in 24 hours.

FORECAST
At 0000UTC 07 November: within 70 nautical miles of 12.9S 89.9E  
                    992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.

It will be a very embarrassing situation as TCWC Perth should name it if it attains tropical cyclone status just before leaving their AOR, but it will be renamed once it enters Mauritius AOR. I think it will be better for TCWC Perth not to name the system and leave the system to Mauritius and Météo France. -- 202.40.137.197

Tropical Cyclone Bertie

93S.INVEST

Looks like a new invest has popped up on the Navy site. -- RattleMan 06:28, 18 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Bertie

And now it's Cyclone Bertie. -- RattleMan 20:37, 19 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

94S.INVEST

And now a new invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 05:02, 29 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

December 2005

Week 1

91P.INVEST - South Pacific

And now...a South Pacific invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 05:10, 3 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

They just changed it from 90P to 91P... -- RattleMan 07:37, 3 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And it's gone. -- RattleMan 00:30, 7 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

92S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

And a South Indian Ocean invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 22:13, 5 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It's gone now... -- RattleMan 00:31, 7 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2

93S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

And another South Indian Ocean invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 00:30, 7 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And it's gone. -- RattleMan 05:12, 13 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

94S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

And yet another South Indian Ocean invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 22:28, 8 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This invest is gone, but 93S is still there. -- RattleMan 16:28, 11 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

95S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

...South Indian Ocean invest has popped up... -- RattleMan 05:13, 13 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

96S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

yawn* ...and another South Indian Ocean invest has popped up... -- RattleMan 22:56, 13 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This one appears to be gone... -- RattleMan 00:45, 16 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

97P.INVEST - South Pacific

Whee, a South Pacific invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 22:13, 14 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It's gone...? -- RattleMan 00:45, 16 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3

04S.NONAME

98S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

A Southern Indian Ocean invest. [1]. -- RattleMan 21:55, 16 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

04S.NONAME

Have no fear, TC04S is here. -- RattleMan 08:45, 24 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Finally, this one has been removed from the site. -- RattleMan 16:40, 30 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

99S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

The main page is down, but the backup says that 99S has formed. [2]. -- RattleMan 03:39, 17 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This one appeared on the main site for a while, but is gone now in both places. 98S still lives, though. -- RattleMan 09:01, 21 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

No, wait! It just reappeared on the Navy site! -- RattleMan 01:42, 22 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This has to be the hardest basin to keep track of - and the most ignored one! CrazyC83 01:19, 24 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Indeed! Anyways, this one is gone now too. -- RattleMan 17:49, 26 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Week 4

90S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

Another Southern Indian Ocean invest. [3]. -- RattleMan 23:35, 25 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Gone... -- RattleMan 00:10, 28 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Week "5"

91S.INVEST & 92S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

Two invests for you... -- RattleMan 15:12, 29 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

So hard to keep track here! There just aren't too many meteorological agencies in the South Indian and South Pacific away from Australia... CrazyC83 02:00, 30 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Indeed! Now, 92S is gone. -- RattleMan 16:39, 30 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

91S Is Starting to look good though might develop NONAME 2:10EST 1 December 2006

Well, the South Pacific has been unusually quiet so far in the season. Perhaps it's taking up where the Atlantic left off? bob rulz 08:46, 1 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And this one is finally gone. -- RattleMan 16:27, 8 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

January 2006

Week 1

93P.INVEST - South Pacific

Here's some South Pacific activity, Bob! [4] -- RattleMan 18:01, 1 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's gone... -- RattleMan 01:11, 4 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

94S.INVEST - South Indian

Indian Ocean invest... [5] -- RattleMan 01:11, 4 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This one is finally gone. -- RattleMan 00:58, 10 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

95S.INVEST - South Indian

Another Indian Ocean invest... [6] -- RattleMan 03:39, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

...well, that was short lived...gone! -- RattleMan 07:54, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

96S.INVEST - South Indian

And...another Indian Ocean invest appeared... [7] -- RattleMan 06:23, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And it's gone as 97S replaces it. Is something fishy here? -- RattleMan 21:47, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Clare

97S.INVEST - South Indian

You've got to be kidding me...97S forms... [8] -- RattleMan 21:47, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

05S.CLARE

Oh my, another cyclone! 97S developed into TC Clare, I think...according to PERTH... -- RattleMan 21:11, 7 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And the Navy site has updated with the new name. -- RattleMan 02:00, 8 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Get ready everyone, forecast says this will develop into a severe cyclone! Forecast says that it will intesify to a catergory 3 or 4 as it approaches land. This is moving very fast! ---- 211.26.31.114

Shoot. -- Sarsaparilla39 09:52, 8 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Soon to be worthy of an article? Although we have to wait and get information until that happens, due to the sparsely populated landscape... CrazyC83 15:56, 8 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Apparently, it's now Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare with 97 knot/112 mph max wind gusts... -- RattleMan 16:21, 8 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's wind gusts that matter there I assume? That would be barely a Category 2 at the most in the Atlantic... CrazyC83 03:34, 9 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, it's a odd system indeed... -- RattleMan 04:04, 9 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The maximum sustaiend winds near center is just 75kt, not a really strong cyclone. I expect the landfall intensity to be 75-85kt only. Momoko 08:30, 9 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Advisory 24 puts max speeds at 220 KM/H (about 100 mph)!!! If i'm not mistaken, those are winds of hurricane katrina! Evacuations have started. This is worthy of an article alright! —The preceding unsigned comment was added by M cappeluti (talk • contribs) .

No, not worthy. It has caused no damage or deaths yet. A storm is not worthy for having 220 km/h gusts. NSL E _(T+C) 09:07, 9 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yawn Katrina was huge, Clare is pretty small. Katrina was weakening, Clare is strengthening. (Weakening storms are almost always more damaging than strengthening: compare Hurricane Frances and Hurricane Jeanne's effects in the US, for example.) More importantly, Clare is hitting a pretty lightly-populated area with gusts up to ~120 mph. That translates to maybe 90 mph sustained, a strong Cat 1 by the SS Scale but nothing to be seriously worried about. - Cuivienen 15:00, 9 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Clare looked good for a while there when she was over land, but now she's gone. -- RattleMan 23:35, 10 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The Australian scale for intensity is definitely one that should be refined. The peak wind gusts are extremely difficult to measure and quite meaningless as external factors can play a role in them as well. That "Category 3" cyclone would have been, at the most, a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale with 100-105 mph winds. CrazyC83 03:19, 11 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Though peak wind gusts are extremely difficult to forecast, the category stated in the advisory is indeed based on the estimated gust using Dvorak techniques and a certain conversion. External factors do play a role in the gust but, according to my past experience, they doesn't affect the conversion at all. That estimated gust is just a rough figure and for reference only. NHC also estimates the gust of a hurricane using a fixed conversion between sustained winds and gust, doesn't it? Momoko

Peak sustained winds from JTWC advisories was 75kt (140 km/h, 85mph) NSL E _(T+C) 03:23, 11 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That's the same as TCWC Perth. Momoko

Ex tropicial cyclone clare is now just a tropical low. A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for the goldfields and wheatbelt region for destructive winds, flash flooding and hail. And the remnants have reached as far down south as Perth (where i live) with steady ongoing moderate rainfall. -- M cappeluti

98P.INVEST - South Pacific

Looks like this season is heating up. 98P forms. [9] -- RattleMan 23:48, 6 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It sure is heating up! None of them are developing though... CrazyC83 15:25, 7 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

04S.NONAME?

I think it's now TD04... [10] -- RattleMan 21:18, 7 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It be gone. -- RattleMan 00:57, 10 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

But can it live once more?

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1001HPA] NEAR 13S 175E AT 102100 UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29-30C. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
ERUPTED TO THE NORTH OF THE APPARENT LLCC IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. WARM
MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH, WHILE A
LOW LEVEL SURGE FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MINIMAL SHEAR TOGETHER WTH GOOD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ARE EXPECTED TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH
INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW AND MODERATE THEREAFTER.

-- RattleMan 00:30, 11 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]