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RethinkX

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RethinkX
Formation2016; 8 years ago (2016)
TypePublic policy think tank
Key people
Tony Seba
James Arbib
Websiterethinkx.com

RethinkX is a think tank founded by Tony Seba and James Arbib that focuses on identifying disruptive innovations that could soon impact society.

Rethinking Transportation 2020–2030

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"Rethinking Transportation", published in 2017, builds on the ideas described in two of Seba's previously published books. The thesis of "Rethinking Transportation" is that, by 2030, a convergence of exponentially-improving factors will make it cheaper for urban and suburban dwellers to subscribe to Transportation as a Service (TaaS), using self-driving electric cars, than to own their own car.[1] The converging factors cited in the book include:[2][3][4][5]

  • The falling cost of solar-generated electricity
  • The falling cost of battery storage
  • The falling cost of electric vehicles (including purchase price and lifetime operating costs)
  • The rising autonomy of self-driving vehicles

RethinkX's predictions regarding TaaS have led to debate.[6][7][8][9][10][11][12] Critics generally agreed that the transition to TaaS would happen, but that it would take longer and/or be less complete than RethinkX predicted, for reasons that were:

  • Economic: Tammy Klein,[13] Founder & CEO of Transport Energy Strategies, stated[14] that RethinkX's TaaS predictions lack "a fundamental understanding of the oil/refining industry, future fuel demand and where that demand would be coming from."
  • Political: Jeff Siegel, in Energy and Capital[15]—"Practical investment analysis in the new energy economy"—stated that "continued advances in technology will ultimately make renewable energy the most rational choice for electricity generation and, in many cases, transportation" but that "Seba said it's just a matter of policy makers understanding this and making regulations appropriately. And there's the major speed bump…The truth is, you can't rely on policy makers for anything. In fact, I would argue that because of special interests running our government and the inability for most politicians to base their decisions on anything beyond what is in their best interests (not the American people), the transition to a more economically sustainable energy economy will be slower than it should be."[16]
  • Emotional: Kyle Ashdown, writing for CarThrottle[17]—"The internet's largest community for car enthusiasts"—stated that "Owning a car has thus far been an immortal component of the American Dream, and I don't see people being very willing to give up the emotional attachment to their own cars. People don't make decisions purely based on economic efficiency."
  • Techno-utopian: Automotive technology trend expert Derek Kaufman[18] described RethinkX's view as a "utopian future,"[19] and Justin Rowlatt, then Chief Environment Correspondent at the BBC, wrote that "we are a long way from this utopia."[20]

"Rethinking Transportation 2020–2030" and its precursors (Solar Trillions[21] and Clean Energy Disruption[22]) made specific predictions for the future prices of solar energy, lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, and other items, for each year between their respective dates of publication and 2035.

2021: The Great Stranding

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This report can be seen as an addendum to 2017's Rethinking Transportation 2020–2030 and 2020's Rethinking Energy 2020-2030. It claims to have identified a flaw in the energy industry's method of calculating the Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE) for traditional generation modes such as coal, nuclear and gas, in that their analysis assumes that the capacity factor is constant, and claims that this flaw has caused systematic overinvestment in the world's conventional energy sources while causing systematic underinvestment in alternative energy sources such as solar+battery. This report was cited in news stories from around the world.[23][24][25][26][27]

Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020–2030

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The thesis of Rethinking Food and Agriculture is that, by 2030, a convergence of exponentially-improving factors will make manufactured protein "five times cheaper by 2030 and 10 times cheaper by 2035 than existing animal proteins, before ultimately approaching the cost of sugar.[28] They will also be superior in every key attribute—more nutritious, healthier, better tasting, and more convenient, with almost unimaginable variety. This means that, by 2030, modern food products will be higher quality and cost less than half as much to produce as the animal-derived products they replace."[28]: 6 

These factors driving this result are listed as:

  • Precision fermentation, "a process that allows us to program microorganisms to produce almost any complex organic molecule."[28]: 6 
  • Food-as-Software, "an entirely new model of production…in which individual molecules engineered by scientists are uploaded to databases – molecular cookbooks that food engineers anywhere in the world can use to design products in the same way that software developers design apps."[28]: 6 

RethinkX's predictions for the disruption of protein by precision fermentation include:[29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]

  • By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50% and demand for cow products will have fallen by 70%, bankrupting the U.S. cattle industry. By 2035, demand for cow products will have shrunk by 80% to 90%.
  • Other livestock markets will follow a similar trajectory.
  • The dairy industry will collapse even faster, because its most valuable commercial output is not milk but unstructured milk powders, which are easily replaced by the outputs of precision fermentation.
  • US farmland values will collapse by 40%-80% as the need for livestock feed declines.

As with RethinkX's previous report on energy and transportation, critics' primary objection was that the disruption would take longer, and be less complete, than RethinkX had predicted.[38][39][40][41]

Other critics argued that RethinkX's motivations were tainted by greed. North Dakota State University livestock economist Tim Petry noted in the Australian beef industry magazine Beef Central that RethinkX's report "was written by Silicon Valley hi-tech people who want to lure billionaire investors to invest in their companies. That's the case with anything. When you have something very dramatic, it's easier to get it in the papers than a report that says meat production is going to increase 1pc a year".[42][33][43] A spokesman for the US's National Milk Producers Federation[44] told FoodNavigator[38] that "This report would have you believe that in 11 short years we will be living in The Jetsons, with consumers massively adopting industrially-developed, untested food-like products on their way to vegan fantasyland." Philosophy professor Martin Cohen and food science professor Frédéric Leroy noted "We should recall Marx's warnings against allowing the interests of corporations and private profit to decide what we should eat".[45]

Rethinking Humanity

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The thesis of Rethinking Humanity is that, first, the Seba Technology Disruption Framework could be extended to explain disruptions of society as a whole because "the same processes and dynamics that drive S-curve adoption of new products at a sector level repeat at the level of civilizations,"[46] and that, second, human civilization was now "on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential transformation of human civilization in history, a transformation every bit as significant as the move from foraging to cities and agriculture 10,000 years ago."[46]: 5 

Rethinking Humanity asserts[46]: 5  that each of the five "foundational sectors" that underpin the global economy—information, energy, food, transportation, and materials—"will be disrupted in the period 2020–2033, costs will fall by 10x or more, while production processes an order of magnitude (10x) more efficient will use 90% fewer natural resources with 10x-100x less waste." It further asserts[46]: 5  that these technological disruptions have the potential to disrupt human civilization, for good or ill, and that humanity must develop a new social, political, and economic "Organizing System" to ensure that the outcome of this disruption is "A New Age of Freedom."

The publication of Rethinking Humanity in June 2020 prompted less global press coverage than its previous reports.[47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54]

The criticisms of Rethinking Humanity were similar to those leveled at RethinkX's previous reports.[54][55]

References

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  1. ^ Arbib, James; Seba, Tony (4 May 2017). Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries. RethinkX. p. 162. ISBN 978-0999401606.
  2. ^ Chandler, Davis L. (7 June 2018). "MIT Energy Conference speakers say transformation can happen fast". Energy.MIT.edu. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Retrieved 29 July 2021.
  3. ^ "Green Future on the Horizon". SEV.fo. SEV. Retrieved 29 July 2021.
  4. ^ "NC Go!, NCDOT Announce Keynote Speaker for N.C. Transportation Summit". NCDOT.gov. North Carolina Department of Transportation. 16 December 2019. Retrieved 29 July 2021.
  5. ^ "Nor-Shipping looks to keynote speaker Tony Seba to disrupt, innovate and engage". ShipManagementInternational.com. 10 November 2016. Retrieved 29 July 2021.
  6. ^ della Cava, Marco (4 May 2017). "Self-driving electric vehicles to make car ownership vanish". USA Today. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  7. ^ Anderson, Mark (4 May 2017). "RethinkX: Self-Driving Electric Cars Will Dominate Roads by 2030". IEEE Spectrum. IEEE. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  8. ^ Coren, Michael J. (18 September 2017). "When will self-driving electric cars make conventional cars worthless?". Quartz. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  9. ^ Viljoen, Alwyn (20 May 2021). "Government seeks public comment on electric vehicles". South Africa: The Witness. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  10. ^ Nelson, Leah (6 December 2018). "Understanding Transportation as a Service's potential to reduce car ownership". Mobility Lab. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  11. ^ Peters, Adele (30 May 2017). "It Could Be 10 Times Cheaper To Take Electric Robo-Taxis Than To Own A Car By 2030". Fast Company. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  12. ^ Read, Meegan (13 June 2017). "Car dealerships could be out of business within a decade, says report". CBC News. Canadian Broadcast Corporation. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  13. ^ "Argus Global Gasoline Live - Virtual Conference: Speakers". ArgusMedia.com. Retrieved 29 July 2021.
  14. ^ Klein, Tammy (13 March 2019). "Rethinking RethinkX Two Years Later". Transport Energy Strategies. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  15. ^ "Energy & Capital: About Us". Energy & Capital. Retrieved 28 July 2021. Helping readers profit from the ever-expanding and ever-changing energy sector
  16. ^ Siegel, Jeff (29 January 2014). "Fossil Fuels Obsolete by 2030?". Energy & Capital. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  17. ^ "CarThrottle: About Us". CarThrottle. Dennis Publishing. Retrieved 28 July 2021. The internet's largest community for car enthusiasts
  18. ^ Aftermarket News Staff (2 August 2012). "Popular Speaker Derek Kaufman to Discuss Powertrain Trends and Reman Opportunities at BIG R Show". AfterMarketNews.com. Retrieved 29 July 2021.
  19. ^ Kaufman, Derek (30 June 2017). "Guest Commentary: That's It. We're Done. Nice To Know You". AfterMarketNews.com. Babcox Media. Retrieved 29 July 2021.
  20. ^ Rowlatt, Justin (31 October 2020). "Climate change: You've got cheap data, how about cheap power too?". BBC.com. British Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 29 July 2021.
  21. ^ Seba, Tony (28 January 2010). Solar Trillions: 7 Market and Investment Opportunities in the Emerging Clean-Energy Economy. Tony Seba. p. 292. ISBN 978-0615335612.
  22. ^ Seba, Tony (20 May 2014). Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030. Tony Seba. p. 290. ISBN 978-0692210536.
  23. ^ Anderson, Jared (15 March 2021). "Miscalculated levelized cost of electricity data has overvalued power plants: study". S&P Global. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  24. ^ Morris, Charles (21 March 2021). "Have Rosy Forecasts About The Legacy Energy Industry Created A Financial Bubble?". Clean Technica. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  25. ^ "Gigantischer Irrtum: LCOE auf falscher Basis errechnet". Solarify (in German). 18 March 2021. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  26. ^ Roca, José A. (12 April 2021). "Las fuentes de energía convencionales (carbón, gas, nuclear e hidoeléctrica) son mucho más caras de lo que se pensaba". El Periodico de la Energia (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  27. ^ Fonteles, Julia (18 March 2021). "O Brasil cada vez mais longe da OCDE, por Julia Fonteles". Poder 360 (in Portuguese). Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  28. ^ a b c d Seba, Tony; Tubb, Catherine (20 March 2020). Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030: The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals, the Disruption of the Cow, and the Collapse of Industrial Livestock Farming. RethinkX. p. 152. ISBN 978-0997047172.
  29. ^ Lucas, Ed (7 October 2019). "Meat is off the menu as hi-tech rivals thrive". The Times. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  30. ^ Hughes, Peter (1 May 2020). "Does a meatless, milkless future loom?". Farmer's Weekly.
  31. ^ MacLennan, Cat (3 February 2020). "When will NZ be real about our scary future?". Newsroom. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  32. ^ Monbiot, George (8 January 2020). "Lab-grown food will soon destroy farming – and save the planet". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  33. ^ a b Kay, Steve (10 May 2021). "Kay's Cuts: Debunking anti-meat's absurd claims". Beef Central. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  34. ^ Cardello, Hank (30 September 2019). "Why The Beef And Dairy Industries Are On A Cow Path to Oblivion". Forbes. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  35. ^ "Food and agriculture to see major disruption in next decade". Far Eastern Agriculture. 26 March 2020. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  36. ^ Mehmet, Sam (23 September 2019). "Dairy and cattle industries predicted to collapse". New Food. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  37. ^ Rosenblum, Andrew (11 February 2021). "The Revolution Will Not Be Tenderized". Neo.Life. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  38. ^ a b Watson, Elaine (17 September 2019). "'By 2030, the US cattle industry will have collapsed' as microbial protein factories take over, predicts think tank". Food Navigator. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  39. ^ Bailey, Ronald (16 January 2020). "Is Farm-Free Food the Future?". Reason. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  40. ^ Specht, Liz (17 September 2019). "RethinkX predicts transformation of meat industry within decades". Good Food Blog. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  41. ^ "From lab-grown meat to molecular coffee: How tech is disrupting the food industry". CBC Radio. Canadian Broadcast Corporation. 11 October 2019. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  42. ^ "About Tim Petry". NDSU.edu. North Dakota State University. Retrieved 29 July 2021.
  43. ^ "Beef Central: About Us". Beef Central. free online premium news and market intelligence service dedicated to the Australian beef industry
  44. ^ "National Milk Producer's Federation: About Us". National Milk Producer's Federation. National Milk Producer's Federation. Retrieved 28 July 2021. The Voice of Dairy Farmers in Our Nation's Capital
  45. ^ Cohen, Martin; Leroy, Frédéric (10 December 2019). "The dark side of plant-based food – it's more about money than you may think". The Conversation. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  46. ^ a b c d Seba, Tony; Arbib, James (18 December 2020). Rethinking Humanity: Five Foundational Sector Disruptions, the Lifecycle of Civilizations, and the Coming Age of Freedom. Tony Seba. p. 86. ISBN 978-1734954609.
  47. ^ Rappaport, Shana (23 July 2020). "Are we on the cusp of the 'Age of Freedom'?". GreenBiz. Retrieved 28 July 2021.
  48. ^ Galilea, Daniel (22 July 2020). "Predice el informe Rethinking Humanity que en el 2030 se ya no habrá pobreza". Vanguardia (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 July 2021.
  49. ^ Galilea, Daniel (24 August 2020). "Una visión optimista del mundo que vendrá". El Tiempo (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 July 2021.
  50. ^ Pyper, Julia (7 August 2020). "How Distributed Energy Could Help Usher In a New 'Age of Freedom'". GTM. Greentech Media. Retrieved 28 July 2021.
  51. ^ Span, Mary (26 December 2020). "Rethinking Humanity". Evolutie Gids (in Dutch). Retrieved 28 July 2021.
  52. ^ Diana, Frank (13 October 2020). "Rethinking Humanity". Reimagining the Future. Retrieved 28 July 2021.
  53. ^ Quigley, Ian (22 December 2020). "Comment: We're on the cusp of tech-driven economic revolution". Business Post.
  54. ^ a b Gent, Edd (1 July 2020). "New report: Tech could fuel an age of freedom — or make civilisation collapse". The Mandarin. Retrieved 28 July 2021.
  55. ^ Elhefnawy, Nader (1 September 2020). "Notes on RethinkX's Rethinking Humanity". NaderElhefnawy. Retrieved 28 July 2021.
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