Post-election pendulum for the 1992 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1992 Victorian state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Liberal/National seats Marginal Frankston East Peter McLellan LIB 0.2% Geelong Ann Henderson LIB 0.7% Bendigo West Max Turner LIB 1.1% Essendon Ian Davis LIB 1.2% Tullamarine Bernie Finn LIB 1.5% Ballarat East Barry Traynor LIB 1.6% Ballarat West Paul Jenkins LIB 2.7% Oakleigh Denise McGill LIB 2.9% Ivanhoe Vin Heffernan LIB 4.3% Cranbourne Gary Rowe LIB 4.7% Monbulk Steve McArthur LIB 5.3% Narracan John Delzoppo LIB 5.4% Fairly safe Knox Hurtle Lupton LIB 6.1% Berwick Robert Dean LIB 7.0% Ripon Steve Elder LIB 7.1% Bayswater Gordon Ashley LIB 7.1% Mordialloc Geoff Leigh LIB 7.3% Prahran Don Hayward LIB 7.8% Bellarine Garry Spry LIB 7.9% Bentleigh Inga Peulich LIB 8.2% Mitcham Roger Pescott LIB 8.5% Bendigo East Michael John LIB 9.1% Burwood Jeff Kennett LIB 9.3% Safe Eltham Wayne Philips LIB 10.0% Mooroolbark Lorraine Elliott LIB 10.1% South Barwon Alister Paterson LIB 10.8% Seymour Marie Tehan LIB 11.0% Bennettswood Geoff Coleman LIB 11.8% Dromana Tony Hyams LIB 12.0% Gisborne Tom Reynolds LIB 12.9% Mornington Robin Cooper LIB 12.9% Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 13.2% Caulfield Ted Tanner LIB 13.9% Wantirna Kim Wells LIB 14.1% Pakenham Rob Maclellan LIB 14.4% Benambra Tony Plowman LIB 14.7% Evelyn Jim Plowman LIB 15.2% Forest Hill John Richardson LIB 15.3% Polwarth Ian Smith LIB 15.8% Warrandyte Phil Honeywood LIB 16.7% Portland Denis Napthine LIB 17.1% Frankston Graeme Weideman LIB 17.5% Gippsland West Alan Brown LIB 17.9% Doncaster Victor Perton LIB 18.1% Bulleen David Perrin LIB 18.2% Hawthorn Phil Gude LIB 18.4% Glen Waverley Ross Smith LIB 19.5% Shepparton Don Kilgour NAT 19.5% Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 19.9% Very safe Benalla Pat McNamara NAT 20.8% Mildura Craig Bildstien LIB 20.9% Kew Jan Wade LIB 21.5% Malvern Robert Doyle LIB 22.5% Brighton Alan Stockdale LIB 22.8% Gippsland East David Treasure NAT 23.4% Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 23.9% Murray Valley Ken Jasper NAT 24.0% Warrnambool John McGrath NAT 25.8% Rodney Noel Maughan NAT 26.0% Swan Hill Barry Steggall NAT 29.4% Wimmera Bill McGrath NAT 29.6%

Labor seats Marginal Dandenong North Jan Wilson ALP 0.1% Carrum Mal Sandon ALP 0.9% Bundoora Sherryl Garbutt ALP 1.1% Yan Yean Andre Haermeyer ALP 1.9% Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP 3.1% Niddrie Bob Sercombe[4] ALP 3.6% Morwell Keith Hamilton ALP 4.0% Albert Park John Thwaites ALP 5.8% Fairly safe Pascoe Vale Kelvin Thomson[4] ALP 8.0% Springvale Eddie Micallef ALP 8.0% Werribee Ken Coghill ALP 8.3% Clayton Gerard Vaughan ALP 8.4% Keilor George Seitz ALP 8.9% Geelong North Peter Loney ALP 9.6% Safe Melton David Cunningham ALP 10.0% Altona Carole Marple ALP 10.9% Williamstown Steve Bracks[3] ALP 11.0% Coburg Tom Roper[2] ALP 11.2% Melbourne Neil Cole ALP 12.1% Mill Park Alex Andrianopoulos ALP 12.3% Richmond Demetri Dollis ALP 13.3% Sunshine Ian Baker ALP 13.3% Williamstown Joan Kirner[3] ALP 14.2% Northcote Tony Sheehan ALP 15.2% Footscray Bruce Mildenhall ALP 16.2% Preston Michael Leighton ALP 16.2% Coburg Carlo Carli[2] ALP 16.3% Broadmeadows John Brumby[1] ALP 16.8% (primary) Broadmeadows Jim Kennan[1] ALP 19.4% Very safe Thomastown Peter Batchelor ALP 20.0% Niddrie Rob Hulls[4] ALP Unopp

Notes

¹ On 28 June 1993, the Labor member for Broadmeadows, Jim Kennan, resigned. Labor candidate John Brumby won the resulting by-election on 18 September 1993. No two-party count was performed for the by-election.

² In March 1994, the Labor member for Coburg, Tom Roper, resigned. Labor candidate Carlo Carli won the resulting by-election on 14 May 1994.

³ On 27 May 1994, the Labor member for Williamstown and former Premier of Victoria, Joan Kirner, resigned. Labor candidate Steve Bracks won the resulting by-election on 13 August 1994.

⁴ Bob Sercombe and Kelvin Thomson, respectively the Labor members for Niddrie and Pascoe Vale, resigned in February 1996 to contest seats at the 1996 federal election. Rob Hulls was elected unopposed to Niddrie at the close of nominations on 29 February 1996. Two nominations were received for Pascoe Vale by 29 February for a March 30 by-election, but the by-election was cancelled when the state election was called for the same day.

References

• Green, Antony (September 1995). "1992 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results" (PDF). ABC Election Unit. Retrieved 24 December 2011.
• Green, Antony (December 1998). "1996 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results" (PDF). ABC Election Unit. Retrieved 24 December 2011.