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Paul K. Davis (policy analyst)

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This article is about the policy analyst. For the military historian, see Paul K. Davis (historian).

Paul K. Davis is a policy analyst at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica, California.

Education

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Davis holds a Ph.D. in chemical physics from M.I.T., where he worked on vibrational relaxation[1][2] under Irwin Oppenheim,[3] and a B.S. from the University of Michigan.

Career

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After working in physical science research at the Institute for Defense Analyses, Davis joined the Department of Defense where he was concerned with both strategy and program analysis. He was a Senior Executive.[4] He is a Senior Principal Researcher at RAND (retired but adjunct) and a Professor of Policy Analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.

Davis is known for work in strategic planning methods such as exploratory analysis under uncertainty and capabilities-based planning, and also for modeling. His modeling has included social-behavioral modeling and applications such as using qualitative causal models rooted in social science to understand motivations for terrorism and public support of terrorism.[5]

Dr. Davis has also been active in professional organizations and international research groups, as well as to numerous national panels such as a national-academy study on prompt conventional global strike.[6]

Publications

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Books

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  • (with Angela O'Mahony and Jonathan Pfautz, co-editors). Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley & Sons. 2019. ISBN 978-1-119-48496-7
  • (with Angela O'Mahony, Timothy R. Gulden Osonde A. Osoba, Katharine Sieck). Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling. Santa Monica, California: RAND Corp. 2018. ISBN 9780833099952.
  • "Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity." Santa Monica, California: RAND Corp. 2014. ISBN 0833085077.
  • (with Walter Perry, John Hollywood, and David Manheim). "Uncertainty-sensitive heterogeneous information fusion: assessing threat with soft, uncertain, and conflicting evidence". Santa Monica, California: RAND Corp., 2016. ISBN 978-0-8330-9277-9.
  • (editor and co-author with others). Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction. Santa Monica, California: RAND Corp. 2011. ISBN 978-0-8330-5249-0.
  • (with K. Cragin, co-editor). Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together. Santa Monica, California: RAND Corp. 2009. ISBN 978-0-8330-4706-9. Held in 199 libraries, according to[7]
  • (with Russell D. Shaver, and Justin Beck). Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options. Santa Monica, California: RAND Corp, 2008. ISBN 978-0-8330-4589-8
  • (with Jonathan Kulick and Michael Egner). "Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision Support Systems." Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp, 2005. ISBN 978-0-8330-3808-1.
  • "(with Brian M. Jenkins) Deterrence & Influence in Counterterrorism A Component in the War on Al Qaeda." Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2002. Held at 721 libraries in 5 editions, according to[8]
  • (editor). "New Challenges in Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough." Santa Monica, California: RAND Corp. 1994. ISBN 978-0-8330-5249-0.

Policy papers

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  • (with Angela O'Mahony, Christian Curriden, Jonathan Lamb) "Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms". Santa Monica, CA: RAND, in press 2021.
  • Analytic architecture for capabilities-based planning, mission-system analysis, and transformation. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2002. ISBN 978-0-8330-3155-6. Held at 158 libraries in 3 editions, according to[9]
  • (with D. Gompert and R. Kugler) "Adaptiveness in defense: the basis of a new framework." Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996.OCLC Number 36019859. Held at 23 libraries according to[10]

Peer-reviewed journal articles

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  • (with Steven W. Popper). "Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand". Journal of Policy and Complex Systems. Vol. 5, No. 2, 2019, pp. 118-121.
  • "Defence Planning When Major Changes Are Needed". Defense Studies, Vol. 18, no. 3, 374-390.
  • (with Peter Wilson, Jeongeun Kim, and Junho Park). "Deterrence and Stability for the Korea Peninsula". The Korea Journal of Defense Analyses. Vol. 28, No. 1, 2016, pp. 1-23.
  • (with Peter E. Wilson). "The Looming Crisis in Defense Planning." Joint Forces Quarterly 63, October 2011, pp. 13–20.[11]
  • (with Robert Anderson). "Improving the Composability of DoD Models and Simulations." J. Defense Modeling and Simulation 1 (1), 2004, pp. 5–17."[12]

References

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  1. ^ Davis, Paul K.; Oppenheim, Irwin (1972). "Vibrational Relaxation in Liquids". The Journal of Chemical Physics. 57 (1): 505–517. Bibcode:1972JChPh..57..505D. doi:10.1063/1.1677991.
  2. ^ Davis, Paul K.; Oppenheim, Irwin (1972). "Vibrational Relaxation in Gases—Some Constraints on the Use of Master Equations". The Journal of Chemical Physics. 56 (1): 86–94. Bibcode:1972JChPh..56...86D. doi:10.1063/1.1676943.
  3. ^ Paul K. Davis Interview (MORS) core.ac.uk
  4. ^ https: www.rand.org/about/people/d/davis_paul.html/
  5. ^ "Paul K. Davis RAND - Search Results". search.worldcat.org. Retrieved December 20, 2023.
  6. ^ U.S. Conventional Prompt Global Strike. National Academies Press. 2008. doi:10.17226/12061. ISBN 978-0-309-11459-2.
  7. ^ Social science for counterterrorism : putting the pieces together | WorldCat.org. OCLC 645945305. Retrieved December 20, 2023.
  8. ^ "Deterrence & influence in counterterrorism: a component in the war on al Qaeda | WorldCat.org". search.worldcat.org. Retrieved December 20, 2023.
  9. ^ Analytic architecture for capabilities-based planning, mission-system analysis, and transformation | WorldCat.org. OCLC 49305130. Retrieved December 20, 2023.
  10. ^ Adaptiveness in national defense : the basis of a new framework | WorldCat.org. OCLC 36019859. Retrieved December 20, 2023.
  11. ^ "National Defense University Press: JFQ 63 (4th Quarter, October 2011)". Archived from the original on November 15, 2011. Retrieved November 23, 2011.
  12. ^ "Improving the Composability of DoD Models and Simulations - Paul K. Davis, Robert H. Anderson, 2004". Retrieved December 20, 2023.
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