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Opinion polling for the 2024 Mexican general election

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This is a list of public opinion polls relating to the 2024 Mexican general election. Polls have been carried out by various organizations and aggregated by Oraculus, the College of Specialists in Public Opinion Polling and Surveys (CEDE), Polls.mx, Bloomberg, and Expansión Política.

Graphical summary

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Local regression of polling conducted up to the 2024 Mexican presidential election (excludes others and undecided)

Polling aggregations

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH 		Gálvez
FCM 		Máynez
MC
Oraculus through May 2024 29 May 2024 53% 36% 11% 17%
CEDE through 28 May 2024 29 May 2024 56% 33.3% 10.7% 22.7%
Polls.mx through 29 May 2024 29 May 2024 55% 31% 13% 24%
Bloomberg through 28 May 2024 29 May 2024 55.3% 34% 10.7% 21.3%
Expansión Política through 28 May 2024 29 May 2024 53.16% 33.76% 10.36% 19.4%
Average 54.5% 33.6% 11.2% 20.9%

By candidates

[edit]

Campaigning period

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Polls taken during the official campaigning period (1 March to 29 May 2024).[1]

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample Others/

Undecided

Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH 		Gálvez
FCM 		Máynez
MC
29 May 2024 LaEncuesta.mx[2] 1,800 47.3% 40.7% 8.4% 3.6% 6.6%
25-28 May 2024 Áltica[3] 1,800 50.4% 38.6% 9.7% 1.3% 11.8%
25-28 May 2024 AtlasIntel 4,084 48.2% 34.9% 16.1% 0.8% 13.3%
24-26 May 2024 MEBA[4] 1,000 51.3% 22.9% 10.1% 15.7% 28.4%
21-26 May 2024 Reforma[5] 1,000 55% 35% 10% – 20%
21-24 May 2024 Mitofsky[6] 1,200 50% 27.4% 10.4% 12.2% 22.6%
19 May 2024 Third presidential debate held.
11-13 May 2024 LaEncuesta.mx[7] 1,800 47.7% 40.1% 9% 3.2% 7.6%
11 May 2024 C&E Mexico[8] 600 55% 32% 13% – 23%
3-6 May 2024 Mitofsky[9] 1,600 48.9% 28.1% 10.3% 12.7% 20.8%
4-5 May 2024 TResearch[10] 2,000 52.4% 29% 8.1% 10.5% 23.4%
2-5 May 2024 Áltica[11] 2,500 50% 40% 7% 2% 10%
30 April 2024 C&E Mexico[8] 600 55% 34% 11% – 21%
29-30 April 2024 LaEncuesta.mx[12] 1,800 48.9% 40.4% 6.9% 3.8% 8.5%
28 April 2024 Second presidential debate held.
27-28 April 2024 TResearch 2,000 53% 28.5% 7.3% 11.2% 24.5%
26 April 2024 MetricsMX[13] 1,200 54.4% 21.3% 12.8% 11.5% 33.1%
17-24 April 2024 El Financiero[14] 1,360 49% 32% 8% 11% 17%
20-21 April 2024 TResearch[15] 2,000 53.8% 30.1% 4.4% 11.7% 23.7%
19-21 April 2024 MEBA[16] 1,500 51.2% 24.6% 10.7% 13.5% 26.6%
14-16 April 2024 LaEncuesta.mx[17] 1,800 49.7% 40.8% 6.3% 3.2% 8.9%
14 April 2024 C&E Mexico[18] 600 59% 33% 8% – 26%
13-14 April 2024 TResearch[19] 2,000 54.3% 30.2% 4% 11.5% 24.1%
11-14 April 2024 GEA-ISA[20] 1,070 49% 34% 6% 11% 15%
11-14 April 2024 Áltica[21] 1,000 51% 39% 5% 5% 12%
8-14 April 2024 Enkoll[22] 2,590 54% 30% 7% 9% 24%
10-13 April 2024 Mitofsky[23] 1,600 51.4% 26.7% 9.3% 12.6% 24.7%
7 April 2024 First presidential debate held.
3-5 April 2024 LaEncuesta.mx[24] 1,800 50.7% 40.9% 4.6% 3.8% 9.8%
1 April 2024 El Financiero[25] 1,200 51% 34% 7% 8% 17%
28-31 March 2024 Áltica[26] 1,000 50% 38% 6% 6% 12%
25 March 2024 MetricsMX[27] 1,200 57.1% 23.7% 4.4% 14.8% 33.4%
22-24 March 2024 MEBA[28] 1,500 53.5% 28.9% 6% 11.6% 24.6%
14-17 March 2024 De las Heras Demotecnia[29] 1,400 63% 15% 2% 20% 48%
14-17 March 2024 Mitofsky[30] 1,600 50.5% 28.8% 4.8% 15.9% 21.7%
12-14 March 2024 LaEncuesta.mx[31] 1,800 49.4% 41.6% 5% 4% 7.8%
11-14 March 2024 Áltica[32] 1,000 51% 37% 6% 6% 14%

Precampaigning and intercampaigning periods

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Polls taken during the precampaigning period (20 November 2023 to 18 January 2024) and the intercampaigning period (19 January to 29 February 2024).[1]

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample Others/

Undecided

Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH 		Gálvez
FCM 		Máynez
MC 		García
MC
27-28 February 2024 MetricsMX[33] 1,200 61% 20% 4.4% – 14.6% 41%
24-28 February 2024 Enkoll[34] 814 53% 29% 3% – 15% 24%
23-25 February 2024 El Financiero[35] 1,000 50% 33% 8% – 8% 17%
22 February 2024 Máynez officially registers his candidacy.
17-20 February 2024 Mitofsky 1,600 51.6% 27.8% 5.1% – 15.5% 23.8%
20 February 2024 Gálvez officially registers her candidacy.
16-19 February 2024 LaEncuesta.mx[36] 1,800 50.4% 40.9% 3.9% – 4.8% 9.5%
15-19 February 2024 De las Heras Demotecnia 1,400 67% 15% 2% – 16% 52%
18 February 2024 Sheinbaum officially registers her candidacy.
10-14 February 2024 Áltica[37] 1,000 51% 35% 4% – 10% 16%
3-5 February 2024 LaEncuesta.mx[38] 1,800 50.8% 39.9% 4.2% – 5.1% 10.9%
28-30 January 2024 Áltica[39] 1,000 50% 35% 5% – 9% 15%
19-22 January 2024 Enkoll[40] 834 54% 27% 3% – 16% 27%
12-15 January 2024 MEBA[41] 1,500 68.1% 26.6% 5.3% – 10.3% 41.5%
13-14 January 2024 TResearch[42] 2,000 52% 27.1% 5% – 15.3% 25.5%
13 January 2024 Rubrum[43] 1,200 53.5% 28.9% 4.5% – 13.1% 24.1%
10-14 January 2024 De las Heras Demotecnia[44] 1,400 66% 14% 2% – 18% 52%
10 January 2024 Máynez becomes the sole precandidate for MC.
9 January 2024 INE announces that no independent candidates collected enough signatures to be eligible.
18 December 2023 C&E Mexico[45] 600 58% 33% – 9% – 25%
10–15 December 2023 Áltica[39] 1,000 48% 36% – 6% 7% 14%
7–10 December 2023 Mitofsky[46] 1,600 50.2% 25.3% – 6.3% 18.2% 24.9%
2–5 December 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[47] 1,400 65% 13% – 6% 16% 52%
5 December 2023 C&E Mexico [48] 600 55% 36% – 7% 1% 19%
2 December 2023 García withdraws his candidacy.
25–28 November 2023 Enkoll[49] 800 49% 23% – 17% 11% 26%
22–28 November 2023 Reforma[50] 1,000 46% 25% – 14% 15% 21%
24–25 November 2023 El Financiero[51] 1,000 50% 31% – 7% 12% 19%
20 November 2023 Gálvez becomes the sole precandidate for Fuerza y Corazón por Mexico.

Prior to the electoral period

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Polls taken before the precampaigning period (20 November 2023), but after the winners of the internal selection processes of both major coalitions were named.

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample Others/

Undecided

Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH 		Gálvez
FCM 		García
MC 		Verástegui
Independent
19 November 2023 Sheinbaum becomes the sole precandidate for Sigamos Haciendo Historia.
17 November 2023 Garcia becomes the sole precandidate for MC.
10–13 November 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[52] 1,400 66% 14% 6% 2% 9% 52%
19–28 October 2023 El Financiero[53] 1,620 46% 28% 8% – 18% 18%
20–24 October 2023 Enkoll[54] 1,008 50% 27% 15% – 8% 23%
16 October 2023 MEBA[55] 1,500 60.8% 26.7% 9.7% 2.8% – 34.1%
4 October 2023 Universal[56] 1,200 50% 20% 7% 4% 19% 30%
19–25 September 2023 Covarrubias y Asociados[57] 1,500 64% 17% 6% – 13% 41%
25 September 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[58] 1,200 68% 14% 4% 2% 12% 54%
16–21 September 2023 GEA-ISA[59] 1,070 53% 34% 7% 2% 4% 19%
13 September 2023 Enkoll[60] 1,205 55% 22% 6% 0% 17% 33%
6 September 2023 Sheinbaum wins the internal selection process of the MORENA-PT-PVEM alliance.
31 August 2023 Gálvez wins the internal selection process of Frente Amplio por México.

Possible candidates

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Others Lead
Sheinbaum
Morena 		Ebrard
Morena 		Colosio
MC 		Anaya
PAN 		Creel
PAN 		Tellez
PAN 		del Mazo
PRI 		Ruiz Massieu
PRI 		de la Madrid
PRI 		Noroña
PT
June 2023 Mexico Elige 35.9% – 8.4% – 24.5% – – 7.9% – 17.3% 2.1% Velasco, 2.1% De Hoyos 11.4%
– 35.9% – – – 19.5% – – 16.4% 22.1% 1.8% Velasco, 1.3% Mancera, 1.8% De Hoyos, 1.3% Delgado 16.4%
February 2023 El Financiero 45% – 9% 18% – – 14% – – – N/A 27%
October 2022 El Financiero 44% – 9% 18% – – 13% – – – N/A 26%
August 2022 Reforma 34% – 28% 16% – – 10% – – – N/A 6%
May 2022 Reforma 33% – 26% 13% – – 7% – – – N/A 7%
December 2021 Reforma 31% – 27% 16% – – 10% – – – N/A 11%

By alliances

[edit]
Pollster Date Sample size Margin of error SHH FCM MC Others/

Undecided

Lead
C&E Mexico[61] 18 December 2023 600 4% 59% 34% 7% – 25%
CELAG 18 August 2023 2,000 2.19% 45.4% 18.2% 10.5% 25.9% 27.2%

References

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  1. ^ a b "Elección Federal 2024". Instituto Nacional Electoral (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-14.
  2. ^ S, Karla (2024-05-29). "¿Quién va a ganar las elecciones presidenciales en México?". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  3. ^ "Encuesta - Presidente de México". Áltica (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  4. ^ "Estudio Nacional de Clima Político" (PDF). Mendoza Blanco & Asociados. 2024-05-29. Retrieved 2024-05-29.
  5. ^ Staff, Forbes (2024-05-29). "Sheinbaum llega al cierre de campañas presidenciales con ventaja de 20 puntos sobre Gálvez: encuesta Reforma". Forbes México (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  6. ^ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-05-28). "Tendencias nacionales rumbo a la presidencia de México, mayo 2024-2". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-29. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  7. ^ S, Karla (2024-05-14). "Presidencia 2024 - Mayo 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-15.
  8. ^ a b C&E, Redacción (2024-05-01). "Los Presidenciables 2024. 61° Medición". Campaigns and Elections México (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-05.
  9. ^ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-05-14). "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la presidencia, mayo 2024". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-15. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  10. ^ TResearch (2024-05-06). "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO A LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (05/May/24)". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-10.
  11. ^ "Encuesta - México". Áltica (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-06.
  12. ^ S, Karla (2024-04-30). "Presidencia 2024 - Abril 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-02.
  13. ^ "Sheinbaum, con sólida ventaja sobre Xóchitl en la recta final; Máynez avanza: Encuesta MetricsMx". sdpnoticias. 2024-05-02. Retrieved 2024-05-05.
  14. ^ "Llegan a segundo debate sin cambios: Sheinbaum, 49%; Xóchitl, con 32%". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-04-26. Retrieved 2024-04-29.
  15. ^ TResearch (2024-04-15). "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO A LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (21/Abr/24)". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-25.
  16. ^ R, Rojas (2024-05-03). "Imparable Sheinbaum con 59% de intención de voto, 2 a 1 sobre Gálvez". RegeneraciónMX (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-03.
  17. ^ S, Karla (2024-04-18). "Presidenciables 2024 - Abril 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
  18. ^ C&E, Redacción (2024-04-15). "Los Presidenciables 2024. 60° Medición". Campaigns and Elections México (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-16.
  19. ^ TResearch (2024-04-15). "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO A LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (14/Abr/24)". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
  20. ^ Mx, Polls (2024-04-26). "GEA-ISA: Se acorta la brecha entre Sheinbaum y Gálvez previo al segundo debate". Polls Mx. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
  21. ^ "Encuesta México" (PDF). Altica. 2024-04-15. Retrieved 2024-04-16.
  22. ^ "PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-04-23.
  23. ^ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-04-24). "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la elección presidencial, abril 2024". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-25. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  24. ^ S, Karla (2024-04-06). "Presidenciables 2024 - Abril 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-02.
  25. ^ "Elecciones 2024: Sheinbaum retiene ventaja de 17 puntos sobre Xóchitl tras un mes de campaña". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-04-01. Retrieved 2024-04-16.
  26. ^ "Encuesta México" (PDF). Altica. 2024-04-01.
  27. ^ "La ventaja de Sheinbaum sobre Xóchitl baja a 33 puntos porcentuales, revela encuesta MetricsMX". sdpnoticias. 2024-04-01. Retrieved 2024-04-15.
  28. ^ "Mendoza Blanco: Claudia (60.5%) saca 27 puntos a Xóchitl (32.7%); Máynez capta 6.8%". SinEmbargo MX (in Spanish). 2024-04-03. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
  29. ^ Demotecnia, De las Heras (2024-03-27). "Encuesta Nacional Marzo 2024". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-14.
  30. ^ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-03-25). "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la elección presidencial del 2 de junio, marzo 2024". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-15. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  31. ^ "Presidenciables 2024" (PDF). LaEncuesta.MX. 2024-03-15. Retrieved 2024-04-15.
  32. ^ "Encuesta México" (PDF). Altica. 2024-03-15.
  33. ^ "Encuesta MetricsMX Presidencia 2024: Claudia Sheinbaum inicia periodo de campaña con una ventaja de 41 puntos porcentuales". sdpnoticias. 2024-03-01. Retrieved 2024-04-21.
  34. ^ "PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-03-04.
  35. ^ "Sheinbaum arranca campaña con 50% de preferencias; Xóchitl, con 33%". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-03-01. Retrieved 2024-04-21.
  36. ^ S, Karla (2024-02-20). "Presidenciables 2024 - Febrero 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
  37. ^ "Encuesta - México Presidencial 5to Tracking". Áltica (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
  38. ^ S, Karla (2024-02-06). "Presidenciables 2024 - Febrero 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-02-12.
  39. ^ a b "Encuesta - MX Presidencial I". Áltica (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  40. ^ "PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-01-29.
  41. ^ "Sheinbaum encabeza encuesta 'Meba' con 68.1% de intención de voto". MVS Noticias (in Spanish). 2024-01-24. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
  42. ^ "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO a LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (05/Feb/24)". www.tresearch.mx. 6 February 2024. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
  43. ^ "Preferencias presidenciales 15 de enero del 2024". RUBRUM (in Spanish). 2024-01-15. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
  44. ^ "Encuesta Nacional Enero 2024". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Mexican Spanish). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
  45. ^ "Los Presidenciables 2024. 53° Medición". www.ceonline.com.mx. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
  46. ^ "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la Presidencia de México, diciembre 2023". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). 18 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  47. ^ "Encuesta Nacional Diciembre 2023". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Spanish). 12 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  48. ^ "Los Presidenciables 2024. 52° Medición". ceonline (in Spanish). 6 December 2023. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
  49. ^ "Presidenciables 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-12-01. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
  50. ^ "Reforma: Xóchitl disminuye en preferencias mientras Sheinbaum y Samuel, que ya no compite, aumentan". Polls Mx. 4 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  51. ^ "Sheinbaum saca 19 puntos de ventaja a Xóchitl; baja cifra de indefinidos: Encuesta EF". El Financiero (in Spanish). 5 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  52. ^ "Encuesta Nacional Noviembre 2023". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 21 November 2023. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
  53. ^ "Encuesta: Encuesta EF: Estas son las ventajas y desventajas de Sheinbaum y Gálvez como posibles candidatas". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 31 October 2023. Retrieved 31 October 2023.
  54. ^ "Presidenciables 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-10-30. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
  55. ^ "Encuesta: Se marca amplia distancia". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 15 October 2023. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
  56. ^ "Encuesta: Sheinbaum arrasa en preferencia electoral; saca 30 puntos a Xóchitl". El Universal (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
  57. ^ "Covarrubias y Asociados estima 6% para Samuel, 17% para Xóchitl y 64% para Claudia". SinEmbargo MX (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
  58. ^ "Estudio nacional de opinión pública". 25 September 2023.
  59. ^ "GEA-ISA: 9 de cada 10 mexicanos irá a votar en las elecciones de 2024". Polls Mx. 6 October 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  60. ^ "Rumbo a la presidencia de la república" (PDF). Enkoll. 13 September 2023.
  61. ^ "Los Presidenciables 2024. 53° Medición". www.ceonline.com.mx. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
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