Opinion polling for the 2019 Turkish local elections
In the run-up to the 2019 Turkish local elections held on 31 March, various pollsters conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions in Turkey's major cities. Additionally, a number of polls were gauged to predict overall vote shares in the local election. This page lists these polls conducted by city, listing the most recent studies first.
Overall opinion polling
[edit]The below table shows nationwide opinion polls conducted to gauge overall vote shares.
| Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | İYİ | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 March 2019 | Local elections 2019 | – | 42.5 | 29.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 12.9 |
| 26 February 2019 | Konsensus | – | 40.7 | 33.6 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 10.5 | 7.1 |
| 28 Dec 2018 – 3 Jan 2019 | OPTIMAR | 252 | 45.5 | 28.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 16.9 |
| 7–13 Oct 2018 | ORC | 5,186 | 40.3 | 29.7 | 19.5 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 10.6 |
| 11 July 2016 | AKAM | 8,890 | 40.6 | 32.3 | 11.7 | 11.6 | — | 3.8 | 8.3 |
| 30 March 2014 | Local elections 2014 | 43,543,717 | 42.9 | 26.3 | 17.8 | 6.3 | — | 6.8 | 16.5 |
By province
[edit]| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Yıldırım | İmamoğlu | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election (annulled) | – | 48.6 | 48.8 | 2.6 | – | 0.2 |
| 20-29 Mar 2019 | PİAR | 11,445 | 48.5 | 48.7 | 0.2 | ||
| 19 Mar 2019 | Optimar | 6,022 | 49.7 | 48.8 | – | – | 0.9 |
| 10–18 Mar 2019 | ADA[citation needed] | 16,500 | 48.4 | 49.2 | 2.4 | – | 0.8 |
| 18 March 2019 | Themis | 2,161 | 48.3 | 49.3 | 2.4 | - | 1.0 |
| 16–17 Mar 2019 | Gezici | – | 49.3 | 48.6 | 2.1 | – | 0.7 |
| 8 March 2019 | Avrasya | 2,440 | 48.5 | 50.1 | 1.4 | – | 1.6 |
| 26 Feb-4 Mar 2019 | ORC | 8,160 | 50.9 | 46.6 | 2.5 | – | 4.3 |
| 23–24 Feb 2019 | Gezici | – | 52.1 | 46.6 | 1.3 | – | 5.5 |
| 9–15 Feb 2019 | PollMark | 5,024 | 36.0 | 37.8 | – | 26.2 | 1.8 |
| 28 Jan-2 Feb 2019 | ORC | 5,950 | 43.6 | 39.7 | 2.8 | 13.9 | 3.9 |
| 28 Jan-2 Feb 2019 | Optimar | 3,012 | 45.9 | 41.6 | - | 12.5 | 4.3 |
| 16 January 2019 | Avrasya | - | 44.0 | 42.0 | - | 14.0 | 2.0 |
| 19–22 Dec 2018 | PIAR | 3,120 | 36.5 | 33.0 | - | 30.5 | 3.5 |
| Alliance | People's AKP + MHP |
Nation CHP + İYİ |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Mevlüt Uysal AKP | ||||||
| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Özhaseki | Yavaş | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election | – | 47.1 | 50.9 | 2.0 | – | 3.8 |
| 16–17 Mar 2019 | Gezici | - | 47.7 | 49.8 | 2.5 | – | 2.1 |
| 8 March 2019 | PIAR | – | 44.6 | 54.1 | 1.3 | – | 9.5 |
| 8 March 2019 | Avrasya | 1,940 | 45.6 | 51.6 | 2.8 | – | 5.0 |
| 23–24 Feb 2019 | Gezici | – | 51.8 | 46.3 | 1.9 | – | 5.5 |
| 8–24 Feb 2019 | AREA | – | 45.5 | 51.2 | 3.3 | – | 5.7 |
| 10–16 Feb 2019 | PollMark | 5,040 | 32.0 | 42.1 | – | 25.9 | 10.1 |
| 31 Jan-2 Feb 2019 | PIAR | – | 35.8 | 41.7 | – | 22.5 | 5.9 |
| 17–31 Jan 2019 | ORC | – | 36.8 | 41.9 | 2.3 | 19.0 | 5.1 |
| 26–27 Jan 2019 | Gezici | – | 52.2 | 47.8 | – | – | 4.4 |
| 19–28 Sep 2018 | SAROS | 1,620 | 44.3 | 54.1 | 1.6 | – | 9.8 |
| Alliance | People's AKP + MHP |
Nation CHP + İYİ |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Mustafa Tuna AKP | ||||||
Adana
[edit]| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Sözlü | Karalar | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election | – | 42.8 | 53.6 | 3.6 | – | 10.8 |
| 16–17 Mar 2019 | Gezici | – | 54.1 | 45.4 | 0.5 | – | 8.7 |
| 8 March 2019 | Avrasya | 1,510 | 47.0 | 51.5 | 1.5 | – | 4.5 |
| 4 March 2019 | Avrasya | – | 46.1 | 51.9 | 2.0 | – | 5.8 |
| 23–24 Feb 2019 | Gezici | – | 56.1 | 43.2 | 0.7 | – | 12.9 |
| 10–17 Feb 2019 | Avrasya | – | 37.4 | 40.6 | – | 22.0 | 3.2 |
| 26–27 Jan 2019 | Gezici[citation needed] | – | 57.7 | 42.3 | – | – | 15.4 |
| Alliance | People's MHP + AKP |
Nation CHP + İYİ |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Hüseyin Sözlü MHP | ||||||
Bursa
[edit]| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Aktaş | Bozbey | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election | – | 49.8 | 47.0 | 3.2 | – | 2.8 |
| 16–17 Mar 2019 | Gezici | - | 46.6 | 52.9 | 0.5 | – | 6.3 |
| 8–12 Mar 2019 | Metropoll | 3,122 | 45.1 | 52.4 | 2.6 | – | 7.3 |
| 8 March 2019 | Avrasya | 1,440 | 49.8 | 49.0 | 1.2 | – | 0.8 |
| 23–24 Feb 2019 | Gezici | – | 46.8 | 52.7 | 0.5 | – | 5.9 |
| 17–31 Jan 2019 | ORC | – | 35.2 | 36.5 | 2.8 | 25.5 | 1.3 |
| 26–27 Jan 2019 | Gezici | – | 51.2 | 48.8 | – | – | 2.4 |
| Alliance | People's AKP + MHP |
Nation CHP + İYİ |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Alinur Aktaş AKP | ||||||
Eskişehir
[edit]| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Sakallı | Büyükerşen | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election | – | 45.1 | 52.3 | 2.6 | – | 7.2 |
| 28 March 2019 | ORC | – | 48.5 | 49.2 | 2.3 | – | 1.1 |
| 8 March 2019 | PIAR | – | 41.0 | 57.2 | 1.8 | – | 16.2 |
| 2–4 Mar 2019 | ORC | 1,425 | 48.5 | 49.6 | 1.9 | – | 1.1 |
| 17–31 Jan 2019 | ORC | – | 40.2 | 39.8 | 1.6 | 18.4 | 0.4 |
| Alliance | People's AKP + MHP |
Nation CHP + İYİ |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Yılmaz Büyükerşen CHP | ||||||
Antalya
[edit]| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Türel | Böcek | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election | – | 46.3 | 50.6 | 3.1 | – | 4.3 |
| 8 March 2019 | Avrasya | 1,560 | 44.4 | 54.3 | 1.3 | – | 9.9 |
| 4 March 2019 | PIAR | – | 44.5 | 53.1 | 2.4 | – | 8.6 |
| 2–4 Mar 2019 | ORC | 2,596 | 48.9 | 46.7 | 1.9 | – | 1.1 |
| 23–24 Feb 2019 | Gezici | – | 52.2 | 47.1 | 0.7 | – | 5.1 |
| 17–31 Jan 2019 | ORC | – | 38.7 | 40.5 | 2.4 | 18.4 | 1.8 |
| Alliance | People's AKP + MHP |
Nation CHP + İYİ |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Menderes Türel AKP | ||||||
Hatay
[edit]| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Güler | Savaş | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election | – | 42.8 | 55.2 | 2.0 | – | 12.4 |
| 16–17 Mar 2019 | Gezici | – | 51.1 | 47.8 | 1.1 | – | 3.3 |
| 8 March 2019 | Avrasya | 1,060 | 42.0 | 56.1 | 1.9 | – | 14.1 |
| 4 March 2019 | PIAR | – | 42.1 | 56.0 | 1.9 | – | 13.9 |
| 3–4 Mar 2019 | EMAX[citation needed] | 1,650 | 43.7 | 40.8 | 0.9 | 14.6 | 2.9 |
| 23–24 Feb 2019 | Gezici | – | 55.8 | 43.3 | 0.9 | – | 12.5 |
| Alliance | People's AKP + MHP |
Nation CHP + İYİ |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Lütfü Savaş CHP | ||||||
Balıkesir
[edit]| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Yılmaz | Ok | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election | – | 47.8 | 46.5 | 5.7 | – | 1.3 |
| 16–17 Mar 2019 | Gezici | – | 53.1 | 45.8 | 1.1 | – | 7.3 |
| 23–24 Feb 2019 | Gezici | – | 55.8 | 42.4 | 1.8 | – | 13.4 |
| 17–21 Jan 2019 | ORC | 1,420 | 48.5 | 46.6 | 4.9 | – | 1.9 |
| Alliance | People's AKP + MHP |
Nation İYİ + CHP |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Zekai Kafaoğlu AKP | ||||||
Denizli
[edit]| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Zolan | Bahtiyar | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election | – | 50.6 | 43.9 | 5.5 | – | 6.7 |
| 14–20 Mar 2019 | PIAR | 7,022 | 47.1 | 49.1 | 3.8 | – | 2.0 |
| 8 March 2019 | Avrasya | 1,060 | 48.0 | 49.7 | 2.3 | – | 1.7 |
| 12–13 Feb 2019 | ORC | 1,524 | 39.4 | 41.3 | 2.1 | 17.2 | 1.9 |
| 17–31 Jan 2019 | ORC | – | 38.7 | 37.0 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 1.7 |
| Alliance | People's AKP + MHP |
Nation İYİ + CHP |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Osman Zolan AKP | ||||||
Şanlıurfa
[edit]| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Beyazgül | Cevheri | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2019 | 2019 election | – | 60.8 | 36.4 | 2.8 | – | 24.4 |
| 1–6 Mar 2019 | PIAR | 8,260 | 49.0 | 50.8 | 0.2 | – | 1.8 |
| 2–3 Mar 2019 | EMAX[citation needed] | 1,481 | 45.2 | 37.6 | 0.8 | 16.4 | 7.6 |
| Alliance | People's AKP + MHP |
None SP |
None | N/A | N/A | ||
| Incumbent | Nihat Çiftçi AKP | ||||||