Opinion polling for the 2014 Ukrainian presidential election
This page lists public opinion polls for the 2014 Ukrainian presidential election.
First round
[edit]Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background is shaded in the two leading candidates respective colours. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is bolded. If no candidate obtains an absolute majority in the first round, then the two highest polling candidates will contest a run-off second ballot.[1] The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two candidates with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such a date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.
| Date | Polling firm | Ind. |
PoR |
UDAR |
FA |
Svoboda |
CPU |
Ind. |
Rad. |
Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13–19 May | Ukrainian National Academy of Pedagogic Sciences[a] | 8.0 | – | – | 13.3 | – | – | 45.0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 31.7 |
| 6–8 May | GfK[a] | 10.6 | 4.6 | – | 10.4 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 47.9 | 6.4 | 20.4 | 37.3 |
| 25–29 Apr | Razumkov Centre | 6.7 | 4.2 | – | 14.8 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 47.7 | 5.0 | 15.2 | 33.9 |
| Oleg Tsarov officially withdraws[2] | |||||||||||
| 9–16 Apr | SOCIS, KIIS, RATING, Razumkov Centre | 7.4 | 6.0 | – | 14.0 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 48.4 | 4.6 | 11.9 | 34.4 |
| 28 Mar – 2 Apr | Razumkov Centre, RATING | 8.8 | 5.2 | – | 19.1 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 42.3 | 5.5 | 12.2 | 23.2 |
| Serhiy Tihipko is expelled from the Party of Regions[3] | |||||||||||
| 31 Mar | Advanced Legal Initiatives[a] | 19.6 | 1.2 | – | 12.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 42.0 | 2.3 | 14.9 | 22.4 |
| Mykhailo Dobkin is selected by Party of Regions as their Presidential nominee, Viktor Yanukovych is officially expelled from the Party of Regions | |||||||||||
| Vitali Klitschko withdraws in order to run for the mayoralty of Kyiv, and endorses Poroshenko | |||||||||||
| 14–26 Mar | International Republican Institute[a][b] | 7.0 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | – | 18.0 | 13.0 |
| 14–19 Mar | SOCIS, KIIS, RATING, Razumkov Centre | 10.0 | 5.3 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 36.2 | 5.0 | 11.1 | 23.3 |
| 4–18 Mar | GfK[a][b] | 8.5 | 5.0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 39.5 | – | 7.9 | 20.5 |
| Viktor Yanukovych officially withdraws | |||||||||||
| 1–6 Mar | Social Monitoring Centre | 11.4 | – | 14.2 | 15.5 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 13.7 | 3 | – | 1.3 |
| 25 Feb – 4 Mar | SOCIS | 9.6 | – | 21.3 | 14.1 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 30.9 | – | 14.3 | 9.6 |
| 28 Feb – 3 Mar | KIIS[a] | 13.3 | – | 20.1 | 13.9 | 2.8 | 8.3 | 32.8 | – | 8.8 | 12.7 |
| – | 6.3 | 20.5 | 15.4 | 3.9 | 9.5 | 35.9 | – | 8.8 | 15.4 | ||
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Before the Yanukovych ouster and Crimean crisis
[edit]| Date | Polling firm | PoR |
UDAR |
FA |
Svoboda |
CPU |
Ind. |
Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan – 1 Feb | SOCIS | 29.2 | 22.8 | 19.1 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 15.9 | 6.0 | 6.4 |
| 17–26 Jan | SOCIS | 29.5 | 21.6 | 20.8 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 13.0 | 4.6 | 7.9 |
| Before 2014 | |||||||||
| 23–27 Dec 2013 | R&B Group[a] | 36.0 | 19.9 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 16.1 |
| 7–17 Dec 2013 | RATING[a] | 28.2 | 22.7 | 23.2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.0 |
| 26 Oct – 8 Nov 2013 | IFES[a][b] | 31.0 | 30.0 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | – | 7.0 | 1.0 |
| 30 Sep – 8 Oct 2013 | Razumkov Centre[a] | 26.3 | 20.9 | 18.1 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 17.8 | 5.4 |
| 26 Sep – 6 Oct 2013 | RATING[a][b] | 28.0 | 25.0 | 22.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
| 15–25 Sep 2013 | R&B Group[a] | 32.5 | 18.3 | 17.0 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 14.7 | 14.2 |
| 21–30 May 2013 | KIIS[a] | 27.2 | 30.2 | – | 11.0 | 7.0 | – | 24.6 | 3.0 |
| 21–24 Dec 2012 | Razumkov Centre[a] | 32.6 | 16.6 | 18.6 | 7.4 | 8.8 | – | 16.0 | 14.0 |
| 2012 | |||||||||
| 17 Jan 2010 | 2010 election results | 35.3 | – | 25.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | – | 21.6 | 10.2 |
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Notes
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n This survey shows its poll results without disregarding those who are undecided or said they will abstain from voting (either physically or by voting blank). In order to obtain results comparable to other surveys and the official election results, the result shown in this table will be that obtained, with a simple rule of three, from disregarding undecided and/or abstaining voters from the totals offered in the survey.
- ^ a b c d Some opinion polls round their data so that in the end up showing a .0 or a .5 value. This practise is maintained for these polls when disregarding undecided and/or abstaining voters from the totals so as to avoid different interpretations of the same value.
References
[edit]- ^ Q&A: Ukraine presidential election, BBC News (7 February 2010)
- ^ "Царев снялся с выборов : Новости УНИАН". Unian.net. 29 April 2014.
- ^ "Tigipko accuses Party of Regions of betraying interests of Ukraine". Kyivpost.com. 7 April 2014.