2024 Icelandic parliamentary election
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All 63 seats in the Althing 32 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Iceland on 30 November 2024 to elect the 63 members of the Althing.
Background
[edit]Previous election
[edit]The 2021 parliamentary election took place on 25 September, a month before the latest date allowed by law. The government coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the Progressive Party and the Independence Party, led by prime minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir, had been in place since the 2017 elections. This unusual coalition of parties from the left wing, the center and the right wing of Icelandic mainstream politics maintained its majority in parliament in the elections as the Independence Party had the same number of seats as before while the Progressive Party added 5 seats and the Left-Green movement lost 3. As for the opposition parties, the People's Party gained two seats and the Reform Party gained 1 seat. The Pirate Party held steady but the Social Democratic Alliance lost 1 seat and the Centre Party lost 4 of its seats in parliament. The Icelandic Socialist Party received 4.1% of the vote but no seats as 5% of the national vote is needed to eligible for the allocation of leveling seats.
The coalition partners from the previous term soon decided that the first option for coalition talks should be to renew their coalition. The second cabinet of Katrín Jakobsdóttir was then formed on 28 November.[1][2]
Fall of government
[edit]In April 2024, Katrín Jakobsdóttir resigned to contest the 2024 Icelandic presidential election, which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by Bjarni Benediktsson.[3]
On 13 October, prime minister Bjarni Benediktsson announced that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November.[3][4] In particular, Bjarni cited "how different the Movement's vision for the future is, compared to what I want to stand for".[5]
Electoral system
[edit]The 63 members of the Althing are elected by open list proportional representation in six multi-member constituencies, with 54 seats distributed between parties at the constituency level with no electoral threshold and 9 leveling seats assigned to party lists at the national level in order to ensure proportionality with the election result, with a threshold of 5 percent required.[6] The 54 constituency seats are distributed within each constituency according to the D'Hondt method.[7] Election lists are determined by parties; although voters have the option of altering the order of candidates or striking out particular candidates entirely, this rarely has any effect on the result.[6]
The number of voters per parliamentary seat varies significantly between the constituencies of Iceland. The number of seats per constituency was determined by law in 1999 and is not updated before each election except when the number of voters per representative in the most represented constituency reaches half the number of voters per representative in the least represented constituency. The constitution stipulates that in this case, a constituency seat should be transferred from the most represented constituency to the least represented constituency. This has happened twice since 1999, in both cases transferring a constituency seat from the Northwest constituency (a large rural constituency) to the Southwest constituency (a relatively small constituency in area, adjoining the capital city). In the 2021 election, the number of eligible voters for each seat in the Southwest was 5671.5, more than double the 2693.5 eligible voters for each seat in the Northwest. According to the constitution this means another transfer of a constituency seat from the Northwest to the Southwest before the next parliamentary election.
Date
[edit]Per Article 23 in Chapter V of Act No. 112 from the 25 June 2021 Elections Law, elections must be held no later than the same weekday of the month four years after the previous elections, counting from the turn of the month;[8] therefore, because the 2021 election took place on the fourth Saturday in September, the latest possible date for the election was 27 September 2025.
Following the collapse of the government in October 2024, the election is set to be held on 30 November.[9]
Political parties
[edit]The table below lists political parties participating in the election. This list also includes the percentages and Althing seats of the parties after the 2021 parliamentary election.
Opinion polls
[edit]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Resp. | Parties | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | Opposition | Oth. | Lead | ||||||||||||
| D | B | V | S | F | P | C | M | J | L | ||||||
| Prósent | 1-7 Nov 2024 | 2,400 | 50.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 21.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 17.1 | 15.1 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 4.5 |
| Gallup | 1-31 Oct 2024 | 12,125 | 47.5 | 17.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 23.8 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 4.5 | 0.6 | – | 6.5 |
| Prósent | 25–31 Oct 2024 | 2,400 | – | 14.1 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 22.3 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 18.5 | 14.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| Maskína | 22-28 Oct 2024 | 1,708 | – | 13.9 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 22.2 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 16.2 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 6.0 |
| Prósent | 18-24 Oct 2024 | 2,500 | 50.0 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 24.2 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 15.0 | 16.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | – | 8.1 |
| Prósent | 18 Oct 2024 | – | – | 15.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 24.8 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 14.1 | 15.1 | 4.2 | – | – | 9.2 |
| Maskína | 13–18 Oct 2024 | – | – | 14.1 | 8 | 5.1 | 21.9 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 13.4 | 17.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | – | 4.2 |
| Prósent | 18 Sep–3 Oct 2024 | 2,150 | 50.8 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 4 | Did not exist | – | 8 |
| Gallup | 30 Aug–30 Sep 2024 | 11,138 | 48.3 | 14.1 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 26.2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 18.7 | 5.2 | – | 7.5 | |
| Maskína | 24 Sep 2024 | 1,783 | – | 13.4 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 25.0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 17.0 | 4.7 | – | 8.0 | |
| Gallup | 1–29 Aug 2024 | 10,780 | 46.8 | 17.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 26.4 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 16.0 | 5.7 | – | 9.3 | |
| Maskína | 7–27 Aug 2024 | 1,730 | – | 13.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 25.5 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 15.3 | 5.2 | – | 10.2 | |
| Gallup | 1–30 Jul 2024 | 9,306 | 45.9 | 17.2 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 27.6 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 14.6 | 4.7 | – | 10.4 | |
| Gallup | 3–30 Jun 2024 | 8,786 | 47.3 | 18.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 26.9 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 14.5 | 3.5 | – | 8.4 | |
| Maskína | 31 May–20 Jun 2024 | 1,846 | – | 14.7 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 27.1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 5.9 | – | 12.4 | |
| Gallup | 30 Apr–2 Jun 2024 | 12,731 | 50.2 | 18.0 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 29.9 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 13.5 | 3.7 | – | 11.9 | |
| Maskína | 30 Apr–23 May 2024 | 3,349 | – | 17.5 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 27.3 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 3.9 | – | 9.8 | |
| Háskóli Íslands | 22–30 Apr 2024 | 2,638 | – | 19.0 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 25.4 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 13.4 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 6.4 | |
| Gallup | 3–28 Apr 2024 | 9,925 | 48.1 | 18.0 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 29.7 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 3.4 | – | 11.7 | |
| Maskína | 5–16 Apr 2024 | 1,746 | – | 17.2 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 27.3 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 4.1 | – | 10.1 | |
| Gallup | 1 Mar–2 Apr 2024 | – | – | 18.2 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 30.9 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 12.9 | 3.9 | – | 12.7 | |
| Maskína | 6–12 Mar 2024 | 1,753 | – | 18.0 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 25.6 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 3.5 | – | 7.6 | |
| Gallup | 1–29 Feb 2024 | 9,964 | 48.1 | 19.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 28.2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 3.5 | – | 8.3 | |
| Maskína | 7–27 Feb 2024 | 1,706 | – | 18.4 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 27.2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 4.3 | – | 8.8 | |
| Gallup | 2–31 Jan 2024 | 10,503 | 46.9 | 18.2 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 30.6 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 3.4 | – | 12.4 | |
| Maskína | 10–15 Jan 2024 | 1,936 | – | 16.6 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 25.7 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 4.1 | – | 9.1 | |
| Gallup | 1 Dec 2023 – 1 Jan 2024 | 9,636 | 48.9 | 18.1 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 28.4 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 3.6 | – | 10.3 | |
| Maskína | 19–27 Dec 2023 | 1,945 | – | 17.3 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 26.3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | – | 9.0 | |
| Gallup | 1–30 Nov 2023 | 9,721 | 47.8 | 19.8 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 28.1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 4.2 | – | 8.3 | |
| Maskína | 3–7 Nov & 23–26 Nov 2023 | 2,376 | – | 17.9 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 26.0 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.4 | – | 8.1 | |
| Gallup | 2–31 Oct 2023 | 10,463 | 49.8 | 20.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 29.1 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.1 | – | 8.6 | |
| Maskína | 12–24 Oct 2023 | 1,935 | – | 17.7 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 27.8 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | – | 10.1 | |
| Gallup | 1 Sep–3 Oct 2023 | 11,005 | 48.5 | 20.4 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 30.1 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | – | 9.7 | |
| Maskína | 15–29 Sep 2023 | 1,466 | – | 19.6 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 24.4 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 4.8 | – | 4.8 | |
| Gallup | 1–31 August 2023 | 10,076 | 49.5 | 21.1 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 28.5 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 4.4 | – | 7.4 | |
| Maskína | 17–22 August 2023 | 954 | – | 17.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 26.1 | 5.9 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | – | 8.5 | |
| Gallup | 3–30 July 2023 | 10,491 | 46.1 | 21.0 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 28.6 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | – | 7.6 | |
| Maskína | 6–24 July 2023 | 836 | – | 19.3 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 25.3 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | – | 6.0 | |
| Prósent | 22 June–22 July 2023 | 2,300 | 51.8 | 16.1 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 27.4 | 8.5 | 14.5 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | – | 11.3 | |
| Gallup | 1 June–2 July 2023 | 11,331 | 48.8 | 20.8 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 28.4 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 4.6 | – | 7.6 | |
| Maskína | 1–22 June 2023 | 1,691 | – | 18.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 27.2 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 4.7 | – | 8.7 | |
| Gallup | 2–31 May 2023 | 10,316 | 48.2 | 20.8 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 28.4 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.9 | – | 7.6 | |
| Maskína | 4–16 May 2023 | 1,726 | – | 19.2 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 27.3 | 5.6 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 5.2 | – | 8.1 | |
| Gallup | 3 Apr–1 May 2023 | 9,916 | 48.7 | 21.9 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 27.8 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | – | 5.9 | |
| Maskína | 13–19 Apr 2023 | 852 | – | 18.7 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 25.7 | 4.4 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | – | 7.0 | |
| Gallup | 1 Mar–2 Apr 2023 | 1,128 | – | 22.3 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 25.1 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 5.1 | – | 2.8 | |
| Maskína | 6–20 Mar 2023 | 1,599 | – | 20.2 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 24.4 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 6.0 | – | 4.2 | |
| Gallup | 1–28 Feb 2023 | 9,517 | 49.6 | 22.5 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 24.0 | 5.6 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 5.0 | – | 1.5 | |
| Maskína | 3–13 Feb 2023 | 1,892 | – | 20.1 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 23.3 | 5.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 5.0 | – | 2.2 | |
| Prósent | 27 Jan–6 Feb 2023 | 2,400 | 51.4 | 23.2 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 22.1 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | – | 1.1 | |
| Maskína | 13–18 Jan 2023 | 804 | – | 21.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 23.6 | 5.1 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 3.6 | – | 1.8 | |
| Gallup | 6–31 Jan 2023 | 9,842 | 48.5 | 23.5 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 25.3 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 4.4 | – | 1.8 | |
| Gallup | 1 Dec 2022–2 Jan 2023 | 7,115 | 48.0 | 23.8 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 23.4 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 4.6 | – | 0.2 | |
| Prósent | 22–30 Dec 2022 | 4,000 | 49.6 | 23.2 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 20.5 | 9.7 | 14.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | – | 2.7 | |
| Maskína | 16–28 Dec 2022 | 1,703 | – | 20.0 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 20.1 | 7.0 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 6.1 | – | 0.1 | |
| Gallup | 1–30 Nov 2022 | 10,798 | 50.8 | 24.1 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 21.1 | 4.5 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | – | 3.0 | |
| Maskína | 4–22 Nov 2022 | 2,483 | – | 21.8 | 14.8 | 7.1 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | – | 2.8 | |
| Prósent | 14–17 Nov 2022 | 2,600 | 51.3 | 21.1 | 14.6 | 8.0 | 19.1 | 6.4 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | – | 2.0 | |
| Gallup | 3–31 Oct 2022 | 8,267 | 49.9 | 24.4 | 13.8 | 8.4 | 16.6 | 5.3 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | – | 7.8 | |
| Maskína | 30 Sep–17 Oct 2022 | 1,638 | – | 22.8 | 15.0 | 7.7 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 14.3 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 6.5 | – | 7.8 | |
| Gallup | 1 Sep–2 Oct 2022 | 11,149 | 48.3 | 24.1 | 13.4 | 8.2 | 16.3 | 5.1 | 13.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 5.1 | – | 7.8 | |
| Maskína | 16–27 Sep 2022 | 1,875 | – | 20.8 | 15.6 | 8.7 | 15.2 | 5.0 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 6.8 | – | 5.2 | |
| Gallup | 2–31 Aug 2022 | 10,719 | 48.9 | 21.8 | 15.6 | 8.4 | 15.5 | 5.6 | 14.8 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 5.1 | – | 6.2 | |
| Maskína | 12–17 Aug 2022 | 890 | – | 20.9 | 19.6 | 7.5 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 7.3 | – | 1.3 | |
| Gallup | 1 Jul–1 Aug 2022 | 9,705 | 49.0 | 22.1 | 15.4 | 8.6 | 13.7 | 6.6 | 15.0 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 5.3 | – | 6.7 | |
| Maskína | 20–25 Jul 2022 | 895 | – | 24.4 | 18.0 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 5.1 | – | 6.4 | |
| Gallup | 2–30 Jun 2022 | 10,274 | 61.7 | 22.8 | 17.5 | 7.2 | 13.7 | 7.0 | 16.1 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 | – | 5.3 | |
| Maskína | 1–23 Jun 2022 | 1,658 | – | 19.3 | 18.3 | 8.5 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 6.1 | – | 1.0 | |
| Prósent | 2–13 Jun 2022 | 1,780 | 50.1 | 18.5 | 17.3 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 5.6 | 17.5 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 6.3 | – | 2.2 | |
| Gallup | 2–31 May 2022 | 10,548 | 51.9 | 20.1 | 17.5 | 8.1 | 14.1 | 6.4 | 14.7 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 5.0 | – | 2.6 | |
| Prósent | 13–26 Apr 2022 | 3,500 | 50.3 | 17.9 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 16.8 | 8.0 | 16.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 5.4 | – | 1.1 | |
| Gallup | 1–30 Apr 2022 | 9,828 | 50.1 | 19.8 | 15.6 | 10.1 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 14.5 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 4.6 | – | 4.2 | |
| Maskína | 17 Mar–12 Apr 2022 | 1,367 | – | 22.4 | 15.5 | 8.8 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 13.2 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | – | 6.9 | |
| Gallup | 1–31 Mar 2022 | 10,941 | 49.6 | 22.7 | 18.0 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | – | 4.7 | |
| Gallup | 1–28 Feb 2022 | 9,672 | 49.7 | 21.9 | 18.1 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 13.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | – | 3.8 | |
| Maskína | 28 Jan–16 Feb 2022 | 3,039 | – | 21.9 | 16.9 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | – | 5.0 | |
| Gallup | 1–31 Jan 2022 | 10,911 | 50.4 | 22.4 | 17.0 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 4.3 | – | 5.4 | |
| Maskína | 6–19 Jan 2022 | 1,548 | – | 20.1 | 17.8 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 13.5 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 3.7 | – | 3.3 | |
| Gallup | 1–30 Dec 2021 | 7,890 | 51.2 | 23.3 | 17.7 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 4.5 | – | 5.6 | |
| Gallup | 1–30 Nov 2021 | 10,000 | 51.0 | 22.7 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | – | 5.7 | |
| Gallup | 1–31 Oct 2021 | 8,899 | 50.6 | 22.8 | 17.2 | 13.4 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 | – | 5.6 | |
| MMR | 12–18 Oct 2021 | 967 | – | 21.1 | 17.9 | 12.1 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | – | 3.2 | |
| 2021 parliamentary election | 25 Sep 2021 | – | – | 24.4 | 17.3 | 12.6 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 7.1 | |
Notes
[edit]- ^ The party is described as fiscally centre-left and culturally/ethically right-wing
References
[edit]- ^ "Iceland's left-right coalition agrees to take another term". Reuters. 28 November 2021. Retrieved 3 December 2021.
- ^ "Katrin Jakobsdottir, Iceland's Staunch Feminist PM, Begins Second Term". Voice of America. 28 November 2021. Retrieved 15 December 2021.
- ^ a b "Iceland PM calls new election as coalition government collapses". Al Jazeera. 13 October 2024. Retrieved 14 October 2024.
- ^ "Iceland appears headed for a snap election after governing coalition collapses". Associated Press. 14 October 2024. Retrieved 14 October 2024.
- ^ "Iceland's government coalition collapses, new elections to be held in November". Le Monde. 13 October 2024. Retrieved 14 October 2024.
- ^ a b Ísland, Alþingiskosningar, 27. April 2013: Úttektarskýrsla (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 24 June 2013. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
- ^ "Útreikningar við úthlutun jöfnunarsæta". Kosningavefur Dómsmála- og Mannréttindaráðuneytisins. 27 April 2013. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
- ^ "112/2021: Kosningalög". Alþingi. Retrieved 28 May 2022.
- ^ https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/10/13/iceland-s-government-coalition-collapses-new-elections-to-be-held-in-november_6729282_4.html
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